Croatia vs Wales
FreeToday’s featured game is the International Friendly between Croatia and Wales. The game is played in Osijek, Croatia, and Croatia manager Slaven Bilic is taking the three friendlies that Croatia have very seriously indeed as he prepares his side for the fortchoming Euro 2012 Qualifiers, something that was highly evident during their mid-week trip to Austria, which they won 1-0.
For those of you who didn’t tune into our rather excellent live coverage of the Austria vs Croatia game, take my word for it when I say that Croatia could have won that game 5-0 and it wouldn’t have been unfair. The finishing from Croatia was partially unlucky and partially wayward but frankly they dominated proceedings so easily that the scoreline was very misleading. Little Luka Modric absolutely ran the show as playmaker, darting here and there and unlocking the Austrian defence with some lovely touches. He’s yet gone up yet another rung on the ladder towards stardom – such a fantastic little footballer. Any Croatia side has a chance of winning a game with him playing as irresistably as he did mid-week so I already have high hopes for Croatia. National support is particularly strong in Osijek for Croatia, just as NK Osijek themselves from the Prva Liga are due to the exceptionally passionate locals, so this game should be some distance from being a “friendly”, really. Croatia still have a host of good players to field in this game and with home advantage against an inferior side, they should be given a license to shoot at will.
I normally wouldn’t bet strongly against Wales because they’re such a bunch of little bastards that they always score to fuck up handicaps or provide intolerable resistance! However, I’ve been swayed to do so today not only because they’re away from home against a side that are a lot better than they are but they’re also missing a whole host of first-team players including the likes of Bellamy, Ramsey, Ledley, Bale, Collinson, Gabbidon, Collins, Davies etc. Basically, Wales are going to be fielding a side that are more than capable of losing this game 4-0 and thus I expect them to do so today.
My concern is whether Croatia have rectified their misfortunes in front of goal since their mid-week match in Austria. However, at odds of 11/10 for them to beat the -1.75 goal handicap, I feel it’s a risk that’s more than worth taking, particularly against a massively under-strength Wales side. Frankly, I’d consider taking bigger handicaps if you’re feeling lucky for this game because if Croatia turn it on then it should be game over.
Verdict: Croatia to win with -1.75 handicap at 11/10.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Macara Ambato vs Deportivo Quito – away win at 6/5.
Macara are a capable side in Ecuador but they’ve failed to win any of their six home games so far this season, which tells a story by itself. True enough, they’ve only lost twice during that run, but they’re one of the bigger conceding sides in the Primera A at home and that has cost them. They tend to play much better on the road, bizarrely, claiming their only two wins of the season thus far away from home, including their victory during their last match at Espoli Cayambe. Macara aren’t a pushover side but they defend too poorly to be relied upon in general and I think that’s going to cost them tonight.
Deportivo Quito are one of (if not the) biggest sides in Ecuador. Although they’ve had their fair share of financial problems in the past year or two, they still remain a constant threat in Ecuador and the fact that they’ve won the Primera A title for two consecutive seasons tells you that. Deportivo Quito haven’t had a great campaign due to an atrocious start in which they weren’t scoring goals. However, they’re unbeaten in their last five Primera A games, winning four times and drawing once so momentum favours them currently and they’re starting to score goals again, pleasingly. They’ve scored ten goals during those five games and beat Macara 2-0 in the reversal of this fixture during that run so they know how to do it. I wouldn’t pay too much notice to Deportivo’s overall statistics this season because they had a sluggish start but they’re playing very well currently and are definitely one of the best sides in Ecuador so underestimate them at your peril.
Given that they started the season poorly, their overall statistics on the road don’t favour them today which surely must have played a part in these odds because they’re a tad too generous, really. Deportivo Quito have won their last seven visits to Ambato consecutively and are taking an in-form, potent side to face a side that cannot defend. For my money, Deportivo are good value on the away win tonight.
Verdict: Deportivo Quito to win at 6/5.
MP Mikkeli vs PS Kemi Kings – away win at 6/5.
Again, surprisingly generous odds on the away win. MP Mikkeli finally claimed their first Ykkonen win last match against one of the very few sides that they’re currently able to beat – a very out-of-form and goal-shy Hameenlinna. MP Mikkeli stole the away win with a late goal and frankly they’ve looked unable to do anything but the smash-and-grab win since being promoted from the Kakkonen this season, losing comfortably in all three of their previous Ykkonen games as they were outclassed and outscored. I’m not taken in by MP’s win last match, although it will have done them good mentally. The fact is that MP aren’t good enough to take on the likes of today’s opponents PS Kemi Kings and I’m hoping that shows today.
Kemi Kings are unbeaten so far this season with three wins and one draw from their opening four Ykkonen games. They’ve emerged unscathed from a tricky trip to HJK II and won 4-1 during their last away game against TPV Tampere. Their last match was a 1-0 win at home to fellow promotion hopefuls Viikingit Helsinki so Kemi Kings do bring some strong momentum and overall confidence into this game, which is pleasing considering they’re facing a side that they really should beat! Only KPV Kokkola and FC Hameenlinna won more away games than PS Kemi Kings did last year so they’re certainly an accomplished side on the road. Kemi Kings are amongst the top four sides in the division, in my opinion, so I’m not entirely sure why they’ve been priced so generously today.
I’m expecting a real contrast in class between these two sides today. MP are barely good enough to be in the division and Kemi Kings are almost too good to be in this division so I can’t look beyond a comfortable away win for the in-form and frankly superior side.
Verdict: PS Kemi Kings to win at 6/5.
Kecskemeti TE vs Debreceni VSC – lay Debreceni VSC at 13/8.
Well now, aren’t these puzzling odds? Debreceni are 2/5 to wn this game at a ground where only three sides have emerged triumphant from this season. Kecskemeti TE are no world beaters but they’re good at home. Indeed, the only side to have scored more goals at home than KTE is their opponents today Debrecen. The fact remains that KTE average scoring over two goals per home game and although their defence is generally atrocious enough for them to lose even their goalscoring advantages, they’ll certainly make life hard for the reigning champions as an unnecessary but impressive away win at MTK Budapest proved last match. Debrecen lost their last trip here in the Sorponi Liga last season so I wouldn’t be too confident about them producing the goods today. It’s been most unlike Debrecen of late to bottle it but that’s exactly what they’ve done. They lost at Ujpest (as usual) and played out a goalless draw at home to Gyori ETO FC last match when they really needed the points. However, fortune was on their side as over-achievers Fehervar slipped up at the same time with burn-out affecting their football. To cap these two consecutive wins off, Debrecen have critically revealed that they were investigated by UEFA this week with allegations towards match-fixing for their game against Fiorentina earlier this season. This information could not have been leaked at a worse time with pressure mounting on a side that are facing their biggest game of the season and given that they’ve already bottled their last two games, I don’t see why they’re not capable of failing to win this game too at very generous odds indeed, risky though it is.
Remember – Debrecen don’t necessarily have to win this game. If they do, the Soproni Liga is theirs again but for them to need the win, Fehervar have to win at Gyori ETO FC, something I find incredibly unlikely as Gyori are the better side, they’re unbeaten at home, they don’t concede goals, and they need the points too. I still think Debrecen will win the league but the odds are too short on them to win this game today in light of the above information so the only profit to be made here is surely by laying them against Kecskemeti TE>
Verdict: Lay Debreceni VSC at 13/8.
Denmark U21 vs Chile U21 – Chile U21 to win at 6/5.
Anyone who has watched the Chile U21 side can only sit back and applaud what they’re seeing. Chile U21 pass the ball around almost as well as Barcelona, which is unthinkable at such young ages. Jorquera pulls all the strings in midfield and Rubio is untouchable in attack. What I like most about this side, however, is their relentless pursuit of goals irrespective of the scoreline – they always want to score more and to win the game. I really respect that, as well as their tenacity to win the ball back on the rare occasion that they lose it. They’ve already bagged nine goals in two games and frankly the reigning champions look more than capable of reclaiming their crown this year with some scintillating and potent football, particularly with goals coming from all over the field.
I’ve been impressed with Denmark U21 for their level of efficiency by quality-wise they’re facing the first side that are genuinely better than they are so it’ll be interesting to see how they line-up. Their in-your-face tactics worked down to a T against Russia in their opening game but their tactics weren’t as effective against a vigilant Qatar side despite eventually winning 3-1. Denmark do take their chances so I’ll give them the respect that they deserve for this game today, particularly against an inept Chile defence. However, I can’t see Denmark’s run of good displays lasting against what I can only describe as the best side in the competition today so I’m going against them for this one.
Needless to say that you must approach this one with caution. Both sides are already through to the latter stages so both will most likely field fringe players. However, again Chile have the advantage with even more quality players as part of their big squad whereas Denmark lose a lot of quality by dropping just a few names. Chile could make hard work of this game and win 2-1 but frankly if them (or their second string!) turn it on then they’re more than capable of blowing Denmark away 4-0 so maybe an impudent bet on a hefty scoreline is worth your consideration. Either way, whilst the reigning champions remain at 6/5, they’re a worthwhile bet against any side that they face due to their untouchable level of attacking quality.
Verdict: Chile U21 to win at 6/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Turkey U21, Corinthians, Ujpest, Croatia, Cesena, Brescia.
Recommended bets:
Ujpest, Croatia, and PS Kemi Kings at 4/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA European U21 Championship:
Estonia U21 vs Turkey U21 (7) 1-2
Argentinian Play-Out:
Rosario Central vs All Boys (7) 2-0
Gimnasia De La Plata vs Atletico Rafaela (7) 2-1
Belgian Tweede Klasse Promotion/Relegation Play-Offs:
KVSK United vs Roeselare (5) 0-0
Eupen vs Mons (5) 0-1
Brazilian Serie A:
Corinthians vs Fluminense (8) 2-1
Atletico Mineiro vs Atletico Paranaense (6) over 2.5 goals
Internacional vs Sao Paulo (5) 1-1
Ceara vs Vitoria (6) 0-0
Avai vs Vasco de Gama (7) over 2.5 goals
Flamengo vs Gremio Prudente (7) both sides to score
Guarani vs Cruzeiro (6) 1-1
Colombian Primera A:
Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Macara Ambato vs Deportivo Quito (7) 0-1
Olmedo Riobamba vs El Nacional Quito (5) 0-0
Barcelona Guayaquil vs Liga de Quito (6) 1-1
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
JJK Jyvaskyla vs FC Honka Espoo (6) 1-2
VPS Vaasa vs KuPS Kuopio (3) 0-1
IFK Mariehamn vs Jaro Pietarsaari (6) 1-1
Finnish Ykkonen:
MP Mikkeli vs PS Kemi Kings (7) under 2.5 goals
Viikingit Helsinki vs Jippo Joensuu (4)
KooTeePee Kotka vs HJK II (6) under 1.5 goals
RoPS Rovaniemi vs PK-35 Helsinki (8) over 2.5 goals
Espoo vs PoPa Pori (6) over 2.5 goals
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Kecskemeti TE vs Debreceni VSC (4) 2-2
Gyori ETO FC vs Fehervar (5) 1-0
Szombathelyi Haladas vs Paksi SE (7) 2-1
Diosgyori VTK vs MTK Budapest (5) 0-1
Ujpest vs Vasas Budapest (9) 2-0
Lombard Papa vs Kaposvari Rakoczi (4) 1-1
International Friendly:
Croatia vs Wales (9) -1.75 handicap
International Friendlies – Toulon Tournament (played in France):
Denmark U21 vs Chile U21 (6) over 2.5 goals
Qatar U21 vs Russia U21 (5) 0-1
Italian Serie B:
Triestina vs Ancona (7)
Cittadella vs Crotone (6) over 2.5 goals
Sassuolo vs Empoli (4)
Ascoli vs Frosinone (5)
Vicenza vs Lecce (5)
Cesena vs Modena (8)
Albinoleffe vs Padova (6)
Gallipoli vs Piacenza (6)
Grosseto vs Reggina (5)
Brescia vs Salernitana (9)
Mantova vs Torino (5)
Mexican Primera Division:
Toluca vs Santos Laguna (6) over 2.5 goals
Norwegian Divisjon 1:
Moss vs Fredrikstad (6)
Slovenian Prva Liga Play-Out:
Interblock Ljubljana vs Triglav (4) 1-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Salamanca (6)
Villarreal II vs Gimnastic de Tarragona (5) over 2.5 goals
Recreativo de Huelva vs Hercules Alicante (7)
Cadiz vs Real Murcia (4)
Real Betis Balompie vs Real Sociedad (6) under 2.5 goals
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Caracas vs Deportivo Tachira (5) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Enjoy your free betting tips!