Cyprus vs Andorra
FreeI always find it difficult to write international previews because there’s not really an awful lot that can be written so bear with me guys!
Today’s featured game is the international friendly in Larnaca between Cyprus and Andorra. Cyprus have been rising through the international rankings over the past couple of years and are finally a force to be reckoned with in European football wheras Andorra are still one of the whipping boys of Europe despite improvement on their part too.
Cyprus have had some mixed home results in recent times but one thing that is constant is their goal threat. They scored twice at home against Montenegro and four times at home against Bulgaria in their last four games, scoring in three of those encounters. In fact, Cyprus scored at least once in every World Cup Qualifier home game last year so their potency is there for all to see. Their defence isn’t as solid as it could be but that’s to be expected from an ascending side that isn’t fully ready to take on the bigger sides yet. Besides – should it really matter against Andorra? It’s going to be an awful lot of one-way traffic by my estimation so it’s more about how many goals Cyprus will win by than whether they’ll concede or not, in my opinion.
Andorra – well, what can I say about them that you don’t already know? Or at least don’t need to know! They’re still a very poor side and only San Marino in Europe are worse than they are, in my humble opinion. They are getting better in gradual fashion and occasionally steal a goal against sides nowadays but I’m sticking my neck out and saying they won’t score against a superior Cyprus side today because the hosts are very good at keeping the ball despite their obvious weakness in defence. I also have doubts over the ability of Andorra to take their chances for obvious reasons. Andorra haven’t scored in any of their last four away games, the most recent of which was a trip to Tirana to face Albania. That game ended 1-0 and was ironically the last time I tried this kind of bet so I hope for better luck this time as Albania absolutely pummelled Andorra but failed to convert their chances. Cyprus are a more potent side than Albania so I don’t envision that being a problem today – I just need to keep my fingers crossed that this isn’t one of Andorra’s rare goalscoring days!
So yeah – my bet is basically to back a “Dutch” bet on this game. In this instance, this bet means to back three scorelines – 3-0, 4-0, and 5-0 with the same stake and you should see a good return on it. The scorelines of 1-0 and 2-0 are possible but I don’t think it’ll be 1-0 and I don’t like the odds on 2-0 in alignment with the bet itself. Obviously this bet does require Andorra not to score but I’m confident that will happen. Will Cyprus piss us all off and score six? It’s possible but not something I’ll entertain tonight – I don’t think they’re that good just yet! You could handicap Cyprus but to be honest, I don’t think the price is good enough in comparison to this Dutch bet anyway. It’s up to you guys but covering these three scorelines should give us some joy today!
Verdict: Dutch on Cyprus to win 3-0, 4-0, and 5-0 at 11/2, 9/1, and 20/1.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Estonia vs Faroe Islands – draw at half-time, home win at full-time at 5/2.
Estonia are a better side than Faroe Islands but to 1/3 level?! Not in my eyes. I like the strong defence of Estonia but it should be noted that the Faroese defence has become a lot more stable under Irish manager Brian Kerr. Look at the Faroe Islands record since he took over back in April 2009 and you’ll see that the only embarrassing result was a 5-0 defeat in France against France. They’ve lost a good number of the games, don’t get me wrong, but they’re a harder side to beat nowadays and shouldn’t be underestimated with that in mind. They gave Luxembourg a tough game last match which ended 0-0 whereas Luxembourg were fancied to beat them. Faroe Islands have a big and physical side so the Estonian physical side of their game shouldn’t yield the Baltic nation any advantage over their Scandinavian opponents. However, as this is a qualifier and not a mere friendly, Estonia will have to push for the win and I do think they’ll secure it in the end – I just don’t think it’ll be too convincing. Look at Estonia’s home record in recent times – four consecutive clean sheets again Belgium, Albania, Finland, and Croatia respectively – it’s a good set of teams as far as goalscoring goes (well, maybe barring Finland at the moment!) so I think Estonia will keep Faroe Islands out fairly comfortably. My main point here is that I think Faroe Islands can hold them off until half-time at least before eventually conceding and 5/2 on that happening is decent value in my eyes!
Verdict: Draw at half-time, Estonia to win by full-time at 5/2.
Armenia vs Iran – home win at 8/5.
This is a very interesting call and one I’m quietly (how quiet can a worldwide blog actually be?!) confident on. Armenia are stealthily creeping up the international ladder with their displays, particularly at home in Yerevan. I backed them last time out to beat Uzbekistan and they won that one 3-0. Look at their last three home games – 2-1 winners against Belgium (could have and should have been more), 1-2 against Spain (world champions!), and 3-1 against Uzbekistan, who are one of the most resilient international sides in Asia currently. They’ve notched up six goals in three games so they’re really not the cannon fodder that they used to be. Their problem today, of course, is that Iran are a good side. Worryingly, they’ve looked very composed in recent fixtures against North Korea, Singapore, and Thailand, winning each of those games by taking their chances and keeping their opponents out with some ease. They’ve got some great players, Iran, and have been one of Asia’s better sides for some years now, dating back to the time of Karim Bagheri! Iran are very much capable of giving Armenia a tough game so we should see an interesting game here today. However, Armenia are still a European side so they do face better opponents than Iran on a regular basis and although the advantage from that is small, it remains an advantage nonetheless in my eyes. Armenia’s increased potency of late encourages me in their task to break a stubborn Iranian defence and although their defence isn’t great, I still rate their chances today. This is a risky game so approach with caution but at 8/5 the home win is worth a shot.
Verdict: Armenia to win at 8/5.
South Korea vs Nigeria – home win at 4/5.
I don’t have the confirmed line-ups for both sides but the information I’ve been given (though vague) is that South Korea are fielding their first-team at home and Nigeria are fielding a good number of players who play their football within Nigeria. If that is the case then I suspect it’s yet another form of retaliation from the Nigerian FA following their apparently dismal World Cup and thus they’re looking to the future instead. South Korea outplayed them at the World Cup when they faced Nigeria’s first-team (despite bottling it towards the end); they really should be able to win this game on home turf against a supposedly second string Nigeria side. Wait for line-ups to confirm but if Nigeria field anything but their first string then I don’t think they’ve got a chance here and I’d back South Korea at anything down to 8/13 although I’d not go below 4/5 if the information I have been given is bullshit and Nigeria take their first-team.
Verdict: South Korea to win at 4/5.
Lithuania vs Belarus – away win at 13/8.
Lithuania rated on a par with neighbours Belarus for this game? Not in my world! A couple of years ago, Lithuania were a very difficult opponent to face indeed but they’ve descended a lot since than and have even suffered the humiliation of losing at Faroe Islands in recent times. I won’t deny that Lithuania are a different side on the road to the side they are in Vilnius but the goals have started drying up for the hosts, which encourages my selection today. They’ve become a lot more defensive in recent years and have basically aimed to keep the results respectable rather than pushing out and going for the win, which they’re capable of doing. Either way, Lithuanian international football has taken a step backwards and I’m looking to take advantage of that today.
For me, Belarus’ only flaw is not scoring enough goals. They’re a fantastic possession side with the likes of Kislyak, Hleb, and Krivets in midfield. Their defence is very solid and reliable but their attack is often found a little lacking with no consistently great finishers in their side. Kutuzov, Kornilenko, Kovel, and Hleb (Aliaksandr’s brother Vyacheslav) are all quick strikers but don’t offer consistently good finishing. They occasionally lack a real target man in the box, a sort of Beganskiy (with talent though!). It’d have aided them had Milevskiy, now playing for Ukraine, had chosen to play for his homeland as he’d basically transform this side from Eastern European minnows to the likes of Slovakia and Ukraine but unfortunately that’s a mere pipe dream. Therefore, I can understand why the odds on Belarus are so generous but I still feel it’s worth a punt.
I can’t accept that Lithuania have the same chance of winning this game as Belarus; Belarus are simply a far better side. A possible outcome here is a draw as we could see both sides cancel each other out but at 13/8, I’m prepared to take a chance on Belarus stealing a goal or two, which should be enough for them to win the game.
Verdict: Belarus to win at 13/8.
China vs Bahrain – home win at evens.
China are a frustratingly good side that never really get the credit that I feel they deserve. They’re very good at controlling games and ensuring that they keep other sides out but sadly lack with goalscoring. If we go back a few months to the East Asian Championships then you’ll see that China not only kept clean sheets against their more superior rivals Japan and South Korea respectively but also beat South Korea 3-0 so they’re not a side to underestimate if their attack turns up. China haven’t lost at home in eight consecutive games in all competitions and the last side able to break that record was a very good Saudi Arabia side so Bahrain have it all to do today. Bahrain’s only strength is defence but that’s been shattered massively of late with three consecutive defeats on the road against Yemen, Kuwait, and Japan respectively, leaking nine goals along the way. Bahrain don’t score enough goals away from home to counter such poor defending so I think that if Bahrain fall behind today then they should lose the game, especially against a well-organised Chinese side. Bahrain have lost six out of their last seven away games in total and have only scored in two so backing the home win against the out-of-form visitors at evens looks an interesting bet today.
Verdict: China to win at 9/10.
Denmark vs Germany – away win at 11/8.
This game is played in Denmark and the two are neighbours so there will be some rivaly and Denmark do have the home advantage. However, I still cannot comprehend such generous odds on Germany to win this game. It’s not that I rate Germany as a great side – they’re simply a well-organised side with a very good manager – but it’s that I do feel Germany can score at least one goal here and that should win them the game because Denmark are a very poor attacking side in general nowadays. Not only that, but with Jon Dahl Tomasson’s retirement and injury for Nicklas Bendtner, who on earth is going to be scoring Denmark’s goals -ageing Rommedahl?! I can’t entertain the idea of Denmark scoring against Germany in this game, to be blunt, and although football is a funny game and anything can happen at any time, I still rate this experimental German side more than I do the Danish side. Denmark have a strong defence, to their credit, but we all know that Germany find ways to win games no matter who they face! Germany have only brought two strikers and that is concerning but the absence of key holding midfielder Poulsen for Denmark should alleviate that issue by giving Germany’s midfielders more space to work with in the middle of the park. Not only do I like the away win here today but if Germany do win the game then backing Germany to win to nil at 3/1 looks a very good bet indeed because I really can’t accept that Denmark will score in this game, not from a logical perspective at least. I’ve listed the squads below for you all before you make up your mind(s) but my money is on the away win today:
Denmark:
Goalkeepers – Andersen, Sorensen
Defenders – Agger, Kjaer, Jacobsen, Jorgensen, Poulsen, Kroldrup
Midfielders – Silberbauer, Thomsen, Poulsen (withdrawn from squad through injury, not sure who has replaced him), Eriksen, Enevoldsen, Jensen
Strikers – Junker, Rommedahl, Schone, Pedersen, Absalonsen, Lorentzen
Germany:
Goalkeepers – Neuer, Wiese
Defenders – Beck, Tasci, Schulz, Schafer, Riether, Boateng
Midfielders – Trochowski, Gentner, Hitzlsperger, Marin, Kroos, Hunt, Reus, Trasch
Strikers – Gomez, Helmes
Verdict: Germany to win at 11/8.
Republic of Ireland vs Argentina – away win at 4/5.
This one speaks for itself, surely? Ireland are a nightmare side to play in Ireland because of their vociferous support and never-say-die attitude to a degree unmatched by other nations. However, as Brazil proved here in recent times, sometimes that little bit of class is enough to win the game because Ireland sadly lack in goals despite their constant efforts to find the net. Argentina are poor defensively so maybe Ireland will find the goal in this game but Argentina bring a strong side to this game under a competent manager (for a change!) so I have to favour the away side, particularly at such good odds. Argentina’s line-up is supposedly as follows:
Romero, Burdisso, Demichelis, Samuel, Heinze, Mascherano, Messi, Banega, Gago, Di Maria, and Militio (although could be replaced by Higuain if recovers from flu in time). As substitutes, Argentina also brought along Insua, Zabaleta, Maxi Rodriguez, Coloccini, Lavezzi, Bolatti, Aguero, Gutierrez, Pastore, and Andujar.
I’m not one to fall into traps of big names and under-par performances but if the above side can’t outscore Ireland in this game then they have real problems, irrespective of their defensive frailty.
Verdict: Argentina to win at 4/5.
Mexico vs Spain – away win at 11/10, over 2.5 goals at 11/10,
There’s a lot of bets I like in this game because the defence of both sides in this game is pretty damn poor. Spain got away with in the World Cup more often than not with continuous defensive errors but Mexico have the potency to take their chances against them. One thing not to underestimate here (which definitely contributes to the bet) is the altitude advantage of the Mexicans here because Mexico City is a long way above sea level, comparable to the likes of Lima in Peru in that respect. Spain will have to work hard to overcome that aspect although I think that in itself coupled with defensive frailty from Spain will yield at least one Mexican goal. However, sides simply don’t lose class and Spain are by far and away the best side in the world currently and you can’t overlook the best side in the world to beat anyone at 11/10, surely? Spain have taken a very strong squad to play Mexico and clearly mean business and Mexico are doing the same thing. Hispanic nations are traditionally very passionate about their football so they’ll both want to win this game more than normal as a result. I expect cards in this game, not to mention pletny of goals, so there should be value in over 2.5 goals at 11/10 and possibly even the away win at 11/10 if Spain adapt to the altitude test well enough.
Squads:
Mexico:
Goalkeepers – Ochoa, Corona
Defenders – Aguilar, Lopez, Marquez, Rodriguez, Moreno, Juarez, Salcido, Pinto
Midfielders – Hernandez, Torrado, J. Dos Santos, Guardado, Barrera
Strikers – Hernandez, G. Dos Santos, Vela, Esqueda
Spain:
Goalkeepers – Casillas, Valdes
Defenders – Ramos, Arbeloa, Capdevila, Monreal (would you believe it? Spain do have another left-back after all, and one far better than Capdevila!), Pique, Puyol, Marchena
Midfielders – Fabregas, Busquets, Soriano, Cazorla, Navas, Mata, Silva, Xavi, Pedro, Xabi Alonso
Strikers – Villa, Llorente
Verdict: Spain to win at 11/10, over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Armenia U21 vs Georgia U21 – home win at evens.
Only one word describes Armenia U21’s recent displays; goals. Their defence is shaky as hell but nine goals scored in three games is pretty damn good in my eyes. Much like their senior team, Armenia U21 are on the rise and are unbeaten in four games now, winning their last three consecutively, two of which were against Republic of Ireland U21. Pyunik Yerevan striker Gevorg Ghazaryan looks to be leading the line for this game and he’s been in great form for the U21 side despite actually being 22! Metalurg Donetsk midfielder Mikhitaryan has also been playing well for the U21 side as Armenia look to forge a side for the future and I personally think they’re doing a good job. Their opponents today, Georgia U21, are not a good travelling side. They’ve lost eight out of their last nine competitive away games and have only conceded less than twice in three of those games. Georgia rarely score away from home which naturally makes them easy prey if your side scores goals, which Armenia do. Georgia as a nation has stagnated for some years in football, arguably even declining along the way with stars less and less easy to come by from the Eastern European country. Much like their first team, Georgia U21 tend to focus on defence rather than attack and much like their first team nowadays, they don’t have a lot of joy doing it, especially away from home. Although this is a risky bet, the odds are good enough on the home win to take a chance on as I fancy a potent Armenia U21 side to beat a poor-travelling and heavily conceding Georgia U21 with some ease today.
Verdict: Armenia U21 to win at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Thailand, Cyprus, Wales, Iceland, Paraguay, Czech Republic U21, Russia U21, Netherlands U21, Spain U21, Cardiff City.
Recommended bets in no particular order:
China, Thailand, and South Korea at 4/1.
Argentina, Germany, and Cyprus at 4/1.
Spain, Iceland, and Wales at 2/1.
Armenia U21, Russia U21, Spain U21, Czech Republic U21, and Netherlands U21 at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
European Championship Qualifier:
Estonia vs Faroe Islands (6) 1-0
African Nations Qualifiers:
Chad vs Tunisia (4) 0-0
Malawi vs Botswana (5) 1-1
International Friendlies:
Azerbaijan vs Kuwait (6) under 2.5 goals
Armenia vs Iran (6) 2-1
Algeria vs Gabon (6) 2-1
Egypt vs Congo DR (7) under 2.5 goals
Thailand vs Singapore (8) 2-0
Morocco vs Equatorial Guinea (7) 2-0
Burkina Faso vs Congo (6) 21 (played in France)
South Korea vs Nigeria (7) 2-0
Lithuania vs Belarus (6) 0-1
Angola vs Uruguay (7) 1-2
Albania vs Uzbekistan (7) 2-0
Russia vs Bulgaria (7) over 2.5 goals
Finland vs Belgium (5) 1-1
Moldova vs Georgia (6) 2-1
Malta vs Republic of Macedonia (6) under 2.5 goals
Turkey vs Romania (5) 1-1
Cyprus vs Andorra (10) -1.5 handicap
Senegal vs Cape Verde Islands (7) 2-0
Uganda vs Zambia (6) 1-2
Benin vs Niger (7) 1-0
Tanzania vs Kenya (7) 2-1
Mozambique vs Swaziland (6) 2-0
Saudi Arabia vs Togo (7) 2-0
South Africa vs Ghana (6) 1-1
China vs Bahrain (7) 1-0
Slovakia vs Croatia (7) 1-1
Kazakhstan vs Oman (5) 2-1
Czech Republic vs Latvia (7) under 2.5 goals
Wales vs Luxembourg (8) 2-0
Ukraine vs Netherlands (6) under 2.5 goals
Sweden vs Scotland (7) 1-0
Serbia vs Greece (5) 1-1
Denmark vs Germany (7) 0-1
Austria vs Switzerland (6) 1-1
Montenegro vs Northern Ireland (6) 1-0
Poland vs Cameroon (7) 1-1
Mexico vs Spain (7) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Republic of Ireland vs Argentina (7) 1-2
Slovenia vs Australia (6) 2-1
England vs Hungary (7) 2-1
Norway vs France (7) 0-0
Iceland vs Liechtenstein (8) 2-0
Paraguay vs Costa Rica (8) 2-0
Bolivia vs Colombia (6) 1-1
Trinidad & Tobago vs Jamaica (6) over 2.5 goals
Panama vs Venezuela (5) 1-1
Italy U21 vs Denmark U21 (7) 2-1
Ukraine U21 vs Montenegro U21 (8) 2-0
Switzerland U21 vs Greece U21 (7) 1-0
UEFA European U21 Qualifiers:
Russia vs Latvia (8) 2-0
Moldova vs Romania (7) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Armenia vs Georgia (6) 2-1
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Hungary (5) 2-1
Slovakia vs Serbia (7) 0-0
Croatia vs Norway (7) 2-0
Czech Republic vs San Marino (10) -1.5 handicap
Iceland vs Germany (5) 1-2
France vs Belgium (7) 2-1
Finland vs Spain (8) 1-2
Liechtenstein vs Netherlands (8) 0-2
Austria vs Belarus (7) both sides to score
Faroe Islands vs Andorra (6) 1-0
Lithuania vs Portugal (7) 0-1
Copa Libertadores:
Guadalajara vs Internacional (5) 1-1
English League Cup:
Hartlepool United vs Sheffield United (5) 1-1
Torquay United vs Reading (6) 1-1
Cardiff City vs Burton Albion (8) over 2.5 goals
Finnish Ykkonen:
OPS Oulu vs PS Kemi Kings (7) under 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!