Cyprus vs Iceland
FreeFirst of all – apologies for scant previews. I simply don’t have a lot to write about these games for obvious reasons!
Secondly – be wary with your bets today because international games can be hell as we saw with the ridiculous results last night in the U21 Qualifiers!
Thirdly – A big “fuck off” to the Germany U21 side for their ridiculous defensive display and their inability to score goals when required to!
Anyway, today’s featured game is the International Friendly between Cyprus and Iceland. Cyprus have begun to impress in recent times as their developing footballing nation begins to stake its claim on the footballing map. Visitors Iceland are beginning a gradual descent in terms of their reputation and level of ability with the majority of their good players entering the twilight of their careers and their youngsters not being quite ready yet despite a very impressive performance by Iceland U21 last night against Germany U21.
Cyprus have gained something of a cult reputation in recent years when playing at home after claiming some impressive scalps. For instance, in their most recent World Cup Qualifying campaign, the only two sides to win in Cyprus were two very fortunate Italy and Republic of Ireland sides respectively. Cyprus scored in both of those games and indeed scored in all of their home games in that campaign, which is a total of ten goals in five games – an average of two a game. Cyprus’ most recent home game in the World Cup Qualifiers was a 4-1 demolition of a good Bulgaria side so Cyprus are certainly not to be underestimated. They play good football and it’s started to show, even with their club sides like APOEL Nicosia, Omonia Nicosia, Anorthosis Famagusta etc. who have put in impressive stints in European competition over the past few years. Cyprus are a side on the up and their impressive home form and potency illustrates that point well.
Iceland, like most Scandinavian sides, don’t travel well. In their World Cup Qualifiers, they only managed to take one point from a possible twelve, drawing 2-2 at rivals Norway but losing at Republic of Macedonia, Netherlands, and Scotland respectively. Few sides have an easy ride against Iceland as they’re usually good defensively but they simply don’t score enough goals overall. Iceland are a different side on their own turf but that’s one advantage we shouldn’t have to take into consideration today as we’re considerable nearer the equator! Iceland’s last two away games were friendlies and were rather poor results with a defeat at Iran and a draw at Luxembourg being their results. Whereas Cyprus were a very similar side to Luxembourg a good 5-10 years ago, the hosts today are a lot better than they used to be and I expect to see that show today.
I expect a low-scoring game between these two sides but I’d be surprised to see anything but a home win here.
Verdict: Cyprus to win at evens.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
England U21 vs Greece U21 – lay England U21 at 13/10.
I’m not basing this on much more than that England U21 are a long way from a united force currently and Greece U21 are one of the better European U21 sides currently based on recent displays.
Prior to their last match where they were beaten 2-1 by Portugal U21, Greece U21 had gone ten games unbeaten, winning six times along the way. They’re very compact defensively and efficient in attack, much like their senior side. I recall watching England U21’s trip to Greece U21 back in September and how England U21 emerged with a point is beyond me as they were frankly played off the park. Greece U21 have few big names – unless Sotiris Ninis is in town – but they’re such a good unit. It’ll take a monumental effort to dislodge them and I just don’t think England u21 are capable of it.
England U21 haven’t looked the same since their European U21 Championship Final defeat against Germany U21. They’ve overcome Republic of Macedonia U21 twice but each time in rather unconvincing fashion – and yes, I’m including their 6-3 home win! There’s no doubts over the capability of England U21’s players but as a unit they’ve got an awful lot to learn and I don’t think they’ve gelled enough to damage a solid Greek defence.
An early goal would probably shatter this bet but don’t underestimate the Greeks, whatever you do – they’re more than capable of getting a result off England U21 tonight.
Verdict: Lay England U21 at 13/10.
Deportes Quindio vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla – away win at evens.
I’ve not got much faith in Atletico Junior Barranquilla on the road. In fact, I don’t have much faith in any Colombian side playing away from home. However, they remain one of the better sides in Colombia, something which has been proven consistently in recent times so if anyone is going to break the mould then it’s them.
Deportes Quindio are one of the few Colombian sides I can select that I’d tip to lose a home game too, which falls nicely for us. Deportes Quindio simply aren’t a very good side and they’re being found out in a big way this season with five defeats in six games, drawing the other encounter. A simple glance at the Clausura table indicates why they’re having so many problems as they’re the only side in the Primera A yet to score a goal. They’ve lost both of their two home games against two good sides – Deportes Tolima and Atletico Nacional de Medellin – but two sides that aren’t particularly good on the road, surprise, surprise! Deportes Quindio have got big issues, bluntly, and I think it’s going to cost them their somewhat excellent home record in head-to-heads against Atletico Junior Barranquilla with the hosts having won the last five meetings between these two sides in the Primera A.
Visitors Atletico Junior Barranquilla have made a solid start to their campaign with three wins, two draws, and just one defeats in their six games played. They’re very much a home side which is partially why they’ve failed to win an away game yet in the Clausura despite three attempts but as I mentioned previously, they’re not going to have a better chance to rectify that statistic. Atletico Junior Barranquilla crushed Deportivo Cali 3-0 last match so they carry substantial momentum and potency into this game, which will no doubt help matters. Atletico Junior Barranquilla are in fact one of the top goalscoring sides in Colombia which is why I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt away from home.
This should be a closer game than the statistics suggest it will but I do think that there’s value in the away win here tonight.
Verdict: Atletico Junior Barranquilla to win at evens.
Austria U21 vs Denmark U21 – home win at 9/4.
These odds puzzle me somewhat. I’m not sure why the bookies rate Denmark U21 so highly ’cause I certainly don’t!
I suppose it doesn’t help matters that I rate Austria U21 very highly indeed but frankly they’re a good side, capable of more recognition than they’re given.
Austria U21 have won their last eight home games, a record dating back to 2006 when they were last held here which was against a resilient Iceland U21 side in a 0-0 draw. Since that date, Austria U21 have beaten Cyprus U21, Belgium U21, Slovakia U21, Iceland U21 (revenge!), Finland U21, Scotland U21, Albania U21, and Azerbaijan U21 respectively. Although there are some weak sides in that list there are also some good sides, sides I respect Austria U21 for dealing with so efficiently. One thing Austria U21 always do is score goals, something they’ve done for seventeen consecutive games now. It’d take a braver man than me to go against a frankly underrated and very potent Austria U21 side tonight and I’m not a braver man than me!
Have Denmark U21 done anything of late to convince anyone that they’re of better quality than Austria U21? No. They’ve lost back-to-back games against Serbia U21 in their last two U21 games without even scoring a goal. They lost at Finland U21, drew at Scotland U21, and won at Lithuania U21 – not the most impressive of away records. There’s no doubt that Denmark U21 are capable, particularly given their prestigious past, but the fact is that the best player they’ve produced recently is Niklas Bendtner and anyone who reads this blog knows just what I think of him! I just don’t rate Denmark U21 as highly as the bookies do, seemingly.
Although this bet could turn around and bite me in the backside I just think that Austria U21 are a better footballing side than they’re given credit for, they’re at home, and they’re playing a side that doesn’t travel well so there should be value in the home win.
Verdict: Austria U21 to win at 9/4.
Scotland vs Czech Republic – away win at 8/5.
This bet speaks for itself, really. Although Czech Republic haven’t replaced their retiring veterans adequately – who thought that they would, seriously?! – they have still got a good level of ability and a better level of ability than Scotland. Scotland are a hard side to play at home with their battling style and dogged tenacity but they’ve been very poor in the past twelve months, failing to really make an impact in their World Cup Qualifying Group. They’ve lost their two friendlies since that qualification group against Japan and Wales respectively but comprehensively each time, conceding five goals and without scoring any. Japan are rapidly emerging as a good side but an organised defence can prevent them from scoring and Scotland just couldn’t do it. The backbone of all Scottish sides over the years has been a strong and reliable defence but now they’re losing that too I do being to ponder the likelihood of them keeping someone as talented as Czech Republic out.
Czech Republic have struggled to score goals themselves of late with defeat in their last friendly against minnows Azerbaijan, which was a baffling result for all concerned. A solid defence appears to have too much for Czech Republic’s attack in general and it’s true that since Koller retired Czech Republic haven’t been as potent. They have some good strikers but no great strikers although if youngster Tomas Necid continues as he currently is then it won’t be long before he is considered “great” in my opinion! Nonetheless, any side that can field the likes of Rosicky, Hubschman, Plasil, and Bednar is a side that is capable of beating Scotland and Czech Republic are capable of doing.
I’m not expecting a good game between these two sides as both seek to estalish a foothold to prevent their somewhat increasing descensions in the world of football. However, when it comes down to it on paper, Czech Republic have too much quality in comparison to Scotland and the value has to be in the away win against a Scotland side that are conceding too many and not scoring.
Verdict: Czech Republic to win at 8/5.
Algeria vs Serbia – away win at evens.
I like this bet an awful lot. I rate Serbia as a good strong unit of a team with the right level of innovation, efficiency, and reliability. Wherever you look in their side you can find reliable players with good composure. Although they’ll struggle against better sides technically than themselves, I don’t consider Algeria to be one of those sides!
Algeria succeed in African football more often than not because they actually know what “tactics” are. Most African sides do not! Algeria, much like Egypt, Tunisia, and even Morocco form what I call the “tactical” sides from North Africa. They’re the sides that are unlikely to lose on their own continent because they play a superior tactical game reminiscent of European tactics. Algeria etc. aren’t particularly good sides; indeed, there are few stars in any of the above nations. However, they’re very good sides as a collective when facing opponents that have little idea on how to counter those tactics. However, Algeria are now facing an extremely tactically astute side tonight that are also bigger, better, and stronger than they are with more experienced players. Playing at home or not, Algeria are going to struggle against a very tough Serbia squad tonight and I’d be surprised to see them get anything from this game.
Serbia’s only real fault in my eyes is not scoring enough goals. It works to score one goal against a lesser opponent and then deny them scoring opportunities for the remainder of the game (i.e. wins at Northern Ireland and South Korea in recent friendlies have both been 1-0) but better sides will score against them and they’ll struggle. Fortunately for Serbia, however, I’m not envisioning that problem here tonight. Algeria struggle to score goals at the best of times whereas Serbia always seem to get at least one, scoring in their last ten international games successively. The natural advantage of the Serbs is their towering height, something particularly evident in giant striker Nikola Zigic – it’ll be interesting to see how the Algerians deal with him. Serbia has a lot of good target men, some good set piece takers, and ultimately a lot of leadership and composure throughout their whole team.
With so much going for them and so little going against them, it’s hard to not consider a Serbia win here today as good value.
Verdict: Serbia to win at evens.
Albania vs Northern Ireland – home win at 7/5.
This is one of my favourite bets of the day, a real contender for game of the day! There’s not much quality difference between these two sides but I do feel that Albania are underrated by the masses. They’ve got some good players and the vast majority of their team are playing football in good leagues so I think it’s silly to overlook them.
Albania are a solid side, particularly in defence. The Albanians in general are a very passionate race so it’s understandable as to how they managed to take draws from a trip to Portugal and a home tie with Denmark. Indeed, throughout the World Cup Qualifiers, Albania were only beaten twice at home – once by Hungary in a dogged display and once by Portugal, who needed a last-minute winner from Bruno Alves to secure the win. Albania don’t concede many goals here and have held both Sweden and Denmark at home this season so they’re not to be shunned. Their fault could be considered to be their lack of goals but I expect Northern Ireland’s defence to give them a good chance of rectifying that issue today. Albania are a good side on their home turf and I really expect that to show tonight.
Northern Ireland are missing a host of players for this game, including vital centre-back Jonny Evans through injury. They’re also missing Warren Feeney, Chris Brunt, Gareth McAuley, and Damian Johnson so Nigel Worthington certainly has some difficult decisions to make ahead of this game. The missing Jonny Evans should leave a substantial gap for the likes of Salihi to expose and the dismissal of David Healy from Nigel Worthington’s plans due to lack of match practice somewhat limits Northern Ireland’s potency too, something that could cause real issues against a defensively sound Albania side.
Friendly or not, I expect a very passionate and tenacious display from both sides with most likely few goals being scored. Both sides will fight to the death but I feel the home advantage plus missing players for Northern Ireland should make the home win a good value bet if Albania can find that ever-elusive goal.
Verdict: Albania to win at 7/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Australia, Japan, Syria, Iran, Belgium U21, Estudiantes De La Plata, Finland, Netherlands, England, Portugal, Mexico.
Recommended bets:
Australia, Japan, Syria, and Iran at 3/1.
Moldova U21, Belgium U21, Netherlands U21, and Republic of Ireland U21 at 5/1.
Estudiantes De La Plata, Atletico Junior Barranquilla, and Deportivo Cali at 5/1.
Serbia, England, Finland, and Netherlands at 6/1.
Cyprus, Albania, Mexico, and Portugal at 7/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Asian Cup:
Australia vs Indonesia (9) -1.75 handicap
Japan vs Bahrain (8) under 2.5 goals
Hong Kong vs Yemen (6) 0-1
Syria vs Lebanon (8) 1-0
Uzbekistan vs United Arab Emirates (7) 2-1
Oman vs Kuwait (5) 0-1
Jordan vs Singapore (7) 2-0
Iran vs Thailand (8) over 2.5 goals
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifiers:
Georgia U21 vs Estonia U21 (6) 0-0
Andorra U21 vs Moldova U21 (7) 0-1
Belgium U21 vs Malta U21 (9) -1.75 handicap
Montenegro U21 vs Bulgaria U21 (6) 1-0
Italy U21 vs Hungary U21 (7) 1-0
Netherlands U21 vs Poland U21 (8) 2-1
England U21 vs Greece U21 (5) 1-1
Republic of Ireland U21 vs Armenia U21 (8) 2-0
Argentinian Primera Division:
Estudiantes De La Plata vs Argentinos Juniors (8) over 2.5 goals
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs Lanus (5) 2-2
Tigre vs Independiente (5) 0-1
Colombian Primera A:
La Equidad Bogota vs Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota (5) 1-0
Atletico Nacional de Medellin vs Once Caldas Manizales (6) 1-1
Real Cartagena vs Independiente Medellin (5) 1-1
Envigado vs Cortulua (6) 1-0
Deportivo Pereira vs America de Cali (7) 2-1
Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Huila (7) 1-0
Deportivo Cali vs Cucuta Deportivo (7) 2-0
Deportes Quindio vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla (6) 0-1
Finnish Liiga Cup:
FC Lahti vs MyPa Anjalankoski (6) 1-1
International U21 Friendlies:
Cyprus U21 vs Ukraine U21 (7) 1-2
Austria U21 vs Denmark U21 (6) 2-0
Norway U21 vs Switzerland U21 (6) 1-1
Czech Republic U21 vs Finland U21 (6) over 2.5 goals
International Friendlies:
Republic of Macedonia vs Montenegro (7) 1-1
Cyprus vs Iceland (8) 2-1
Georgia vs Estonia (5) 1-1
Moldova vs Kazakhstan (6) 2-1
Malta vs Finland (8) 0-1
Hungary vs Russia (6) 0-1
Romania vs Israel (7) 2-1
Luxembourg vs Azerbaijan (6) 1-1
Saudi Arabia vs Bosnia-Herzegovina (6) over 2.5 goals
Poland vs Bulgaria (6) 1-0
Albania vs Northern Ireland (6) 1-0
Wales vs Sweden (7) 0-1
Belgium vs Croatia (6) 2-2
Scotland vs Czech Republic (7) 0-1
Angola vs Latvia (6) 1-2 (Neutral venue)
Ivory Coast vs South Korea (6) 1-1
Greece vs Senegal (7) 1-0
Slovakia vs Norway (6) over 2.5 goals
Turkey vs Honduras (6) over 2.5 goals
Algeria vs Serbia (7) 0-2
South Africa vs Namibia (7) under 2.5 goals
Switzerland vs Uruguay (6) 0-0
Austria vs Denmark (5) 1-0
Netherlands vs USA (8) -1.75 handicap
Germany vs Argentina (5) 2-1
Italy vs Cameroon (6) 1-0
Slovenia vs Qatar (7) 1-0
France vs Spain (6) 1-2
England vs Egypt (8) -1.75 handicap
Portugal vs China (9) -1.75 handicap
Venezuela vs Panama (7) 2-1
El Salvador vs Guatemala (7) 2-0
New Zealand vs Mexico (9) -1.75 handicap (played in Los Angeles, USA)
Enjoy your free betting tips!