Deportivo Petare vs Cerro Porteno
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Today’s featured game is the Copa Libertadores encounter in Venezuela between Deportivo Petare and Cerro Porteno. The first leg ended 1-0 in favour of Cerro Porteno so the hosts have it all to do tonight or risk being eliminated from the competition.
Traditionally, Venezuelan sides are the weakest in the Copa Libertadores, frequently going out of the competition at early stages and I doubt it’ll be any different for Deportivo Petare. Deportivo Petare, formerly Deportivo Italia, are one of the leading names in Venezuelan football along with Caracas and Deportivo Tachira. However, they’re the most recent of the “big three” and their record in continental football illustrates that with just a single campaign’s worth of continental games to boast to date, having competed in the Copa Libertadores last time around. During their three home games, Deportivo Petare were either out-thought (i.e. their 0-1 defeat at home to Velez Sarsfield) or outscored (e.g. their 2-3 defeat against Colo Colo and 2-2 draw with Cruzeiro). Atypically, Venezuelan sides – and indeed most northern South American sides – have a good altitude advantage that they can manipulate against opponents such as Cerro Porteno, who reside in low-lying Asuncion. However, Caracas itself is not a massive distance above sea level, clocking in at around 1000 metres above sea level, which isn’t the most daunting of heights. Don’t get me wrong – visiting sides can and most likely will meet a stiff challenge in games like this – but my point is that it’s not as hard as normal, which makes Petare more vulnerable. In the Copa Libertadores, you either play defensively and take your chances due to the altitude or you attack and take your chances on your side being better than the other side. Although this sounds like the beginner’s guide to tactics anywhere, this is particularly notable in South America due to the difficulty of playing at altitude. With less altitude in their favour than a lot of sides in the northern part of South America, however, I think we’ll see a closer game than normal, a close game that isn’t really reflected well by the odds.
It won’t help Deportivo Petare that they’re facing one of the most experienced sides in South American football – Cerro Porteno. Cerro Porteno have appeared in continental competition for all but one out of the last six years in a row so they know what away games in this competition are all about. Because of their experience, Cerro Porteno tend to score their token goal in each away game, scoring in seventeen out of their last twenty-one away games in continental competition. They’ve had some tough away games too, taking on the likes of Corinthians, Cruzeiro, Fluminense, and even a daunting trip to La Paz, in which Cerro Porteno scored each time. With big Argentinian striker Roberto Nanni and partner Juan Lucero available to the Paraguayan visitors, they’re still the superior of these two sides and although they don’t need to get a particularly stunning result to progress here, I still think they’ll get their token goal to make sure that they progress. Who knows – they may even push the boat out and go for the win here, if only for tradition’s sake – they’re certainly good enough to do so, something which was backed up by manager Javier Torrente, who admitted that his side have come to Venezuela to win this game.
With even Deportivo Petare captain Marcelo Maidana admitting that Deportivo Petare are “not a side that defends”, I have to look to over 2.5 goals here. Whenever Petare have looked to take a side on in an open game continentally, their games have gone over 2.5 goals and they must attack here – they have no other choice. Cerro Porteno’s defence isn’t the best but their attack is much better than Petare’s so for me, over 2.5 goals is priced too generously at 6/5 and thus that’s my call!
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 6/5.
Thursday’s Picks
Nothing else appeals to me today, guys, so feel free to check my thoughts on the remainder of today’s games below!
Copa Sudamericano U20:
Uruguay vs Ecuador (6) 1-0
Chile vs Argentina (5) 1-1
Brazil vs Colombia (8) over 2.5 goals
Copa Libertadores:
Union Espanola vs Bolivar La Paz (7) 2-0
Deportivo Petare vs Cerro Porteno (4) over 2.5 goals
Italian Serie A:
Bari vs Internazionale (6) over 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!