Deportivo Quito vs Independiente
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Copa Libertadores encounter in Ecuador between Deportivo Quito and Independiente. The first leg ended 2-0 to Independiente in Argentina so the hosts have to make a go of it tonight or face an early exit from South America’s most prestigious competition.
Since Deportivo Quito properly arrived on the continental scene in South America a couple of years ago, they’ve been feared opponents to face in Ecuador due to the severe altitude in Quito, which is approximately 2850 metres above sea level. Essentially, that’s why Deportivo’s bitter rivals Liga de Quito won the Copa Libertadores a few years ago – because nobody can beat them at home. Deportivo Quito share a similar record for obvious reasons but due to the money being pumped into the club, this club is rapidly beginning to overtake Liga de Quito and establish itself as the best in Ecuador once again, which is surprising given the crippling financial position they were in only a couple of years ago. Nonetheless, it’s worthwhile to consider them as a force again with seven wins from their last nine continental home games (including two draws), especially as even Estudiantes de la Plata have fallen foul of the Ecuadorian giants during that time. Let’s face it – Deportivo have to win here, irrespective of what Independiente do, so they’ll be attacking from the start and at this altitude, they really have to be taken seriously.
Visitors Independiente aren’t great travellers and to be fair, nobody travels well in Ecuador – it’s just a tough place for an away game for obvious reasons. However, this Independiente side boasts a potential secret weapon with new signing Defederico, who was impressive during his time at Huracan but less so after an unhelpful move to Brazil. If Independiente can bring the best out in him then there’s a possibility of a more potent Independiente side this season, as they demonstrated in the first leg, although there’s still some way to go before they can truly challenge the likes of Velez Sarsfield and Estudiantes De La Plata domestically. Independiente do bring a good advantage into this game with their 2-0 first leg win but as I said earlier, Ecuador is no easy place to play and Independiente know it. Independiente arrived fairly early in Ecuador, which shows intelligence, but they decided to train in Guayaquil (at the home of Barcelona), which removed any sign of intelligence from their decision. Guayaquil is a coastal city in Ecuador and as a result, it’s barely above sea level at all, so what was the point? It’s not the grass that Independiente will struggle with – it’s the altitude – and they’re not preparing for it in the right manner, in my view. Independiente have a decent side but better sides than themselves have been felled in Ecuador and with a narrow home win meaning that Independiente still go through, I don’t think it’s out of the question here at all. Incidentally, Independiente still miss important defender Galeano as he’s still at the Copa Sudamericano U20 with Argentina U20 and that should be very evident tonight.
I’d probably leave the game if the odds drop further because as much as Deportivo have to win this game, their main advantage is altitude – quality-wise, Independiente are marginally better than they are. However, home advantage, altitude, and a lack of reason to win the game for Independiente makes the home win at 4/5 look a good call for me tonight although it’s anyone’s guess as to who progresses.
Team news – Deportivo Quito miss Espinoza whereas Independiente miss Galeano.
Verdict: Deportivo Quito to win at 4/5.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Sunderland vs Chelsea – lay Chelsea at 11/10.
Chelsea’s odds look way too short for this game. Sunderland has been the graveyard of many big sides and I don’t see anything to make Chelsea exempt from that list tonight. Manchester United were totally bullied by Sunderland at the Stadium of Light earlier this season, somehow emerging with a 0-0 draw, whilst Arsenal have drawn here 1-1 and Manchester City have lost here 1-0. Sunderland won 0-3 at Stamford Bridge earlier this season in a strong display and although Chelsea have gathered some momentum since then, they’re still not in a position to win this game, in my view. I don’t know what Bruce does to his players but they’re highly motivated before every home game and that should really show tonight.
Sunderland lost Darren Bent during the transfer window, which is a blow, of course. However, they still have Gyan in attack so I’m not too concerned about them yet. It looks like Bruce is preparing for a second half of the campaign playing 4-5-1 with the acquisition of two midfielders to replace the departed Bent, especially with Welbeck out injured for a little while to come. Out of those two new signings, however, Sunderland only have Sessegnon available to them as Muntari has not passed some clearance or other yet. Sunderland still miss Cattermole, which is a blow as he’s a good holding midfielder, but aside from that, Sunderland are in a strong position and enter the game on the back of a 1-2 win at Blackpool so I fancy their chances here.
Chelsea have had to play an FA Cup game since their last Premier League game so they’ve not had as much time to prepare for this game as Sunderland have and let’s be realistic here – Chelsea just don’t have the depth anymore to compete on various fronts, in my view. With all the news about Chelsea moving to sign Fernando Torres and the possibility of Nicolas Anelka moving in the opposite direction, their strikers can’t be in the best frame of mind at the moment so I don’t expect a great Chelsea display here.
Chelsea’s momentum in recent times has concerned me; I cannot deny it. They’ve actually got a strong record at Sunderland, unusually, so do approach this one with caution. However, I’d argue that Chelsea haven’t been as unimpressive as they are now for some time and I’d also argue that Sunderland have rarely looked stronger in recent years than they do now so I think there’s value in laying Chelsea tonight at 5/6.
Team news – Sunderland miss Muntari, Cattermole, Campbell, Turner, Welbeck, and Meylor whereas Chelsea miss Benayoun, Zhirkov, and have doubts over Alex.
Verdict: Lay Chelsea at 11/10.
Sheffield United vs Leicester City – over 2.5 goals at 21/20.
I think this one speaks for itself, really. Sheffield United’s greatest enemy is goalscoring but they’ve brought in experienced striker Marcus Bent during the transfer window to ease their issues and that should really happen with immediate effect, especially against a Leicester side that have conceded so many goals away from home that only Crystal Palace can “better” their record. Nonetheless, Sven’s Leicester have brought in some good players, especially the likes of Yakubu in attack, so I expect a strong display from The Foxes tonight. Leicester have a better side than Sheffield United for my money but that doesn’t always mean a lot in the Championship so I won’t touch the away win here. However, with Sheffield United looking to push further away from the drop zone and Leicester edging towards the play-offs, both sides need the points and I think over 2.5 goals is reasonably priced at 21/20.
Team news – Sheffield United miss Nosworthy.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 21/20.
Exeter City vs Southampton – lay Southampton at 5/6.
Not a lot to say about this one either, to be honest. Exeter are a strong home side because they score so many goals on their own turf so they’ll be a good match for Southampton tonight. Southampton must be tired after their excruciating game against Manchester United in the FA Cup as their players worked themselves into the ground whereas Exeter had a fairly eventless game with Swindon Town so again, I have to favour the hosts here. Southampton still miss star midfielder Lallana and frankly are being priced on their name more than anything here, which is a bit silly, in my view. With the above in mind, I just don’t see Exeter losing this one so laying Southampton at 5/6 looks intriguing to me today.
Team news – Exeter City have doubts over Cureton and Southampton miss Lallana.
Verdict: Lay Southampton at 5/6.
Recommended bets:
An absence of accumulator fodder leaves me with no multiples today – sorry guys!
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Copa Libertadores:
Deportivo Quito vs Independiente (7) 2-1
Jaguares vs Alianza Lima (5) 0-0
English Premier League:
Arsenal vs Everton (6) both sides to score
Sunderland vs Chelsea (5) 1-0
Manchester United vs Aston Villa (6) 2-1
West Bromwich Albion vs Wigan Athletic (5) 1-1
English Championship:
Norwich City vs Millwall (6)
Bristol City vs Swansea City (4)
Cardiff City vs Reading (5) both sides to score
Barnsley vs Preston North End (6)
Coventry City vs Nottingham Forest (5) under 2.5 goals
Watford vs Crystal Palace (7)
Doncaster Rovers vs Burnley (5)
Sheffield United vs Leicester City (6) over 2.5 goals
Hull City vs Leeds United (5)
Derby County vs Ipswich Town (6)
Middlesbrough vs Scunthorpe United (7)
Queens Park Rangers vs Portsmouth (7)
English League One:
Huddersfield Town vs Carlisle United (6) over 2.5 goals
Dagenham & Redbridge vs Brentford (6)
Peterborough United vs Sheffield Wednesday (7) over 2.5 goals
Tranmere Rovers vs Rochdale (6)
Bournemouth vs Swindon Town (7)
Yeovil Town vs Plymouth Argyle (5) under 2.5 goals
Oldham Athletic vs Hartlepool United (6) under 2.5 goals
Exeter City vs Southampton (5) both sides to score
Leyton Orient vs Brighton & Hove Albion (3)
Charlton Athletic vs Colchester United (6)
English League Two:
Torquay United vs Hereford United (5) under 2.5 goals
Port Vale vs Rotherham United (6)
Accrington Stanley vs Morecambe (5)
Bradford City vs Lincoln City (6)
Northampton Town vs Crewe Alexandra (5) over 2.5 goals
Southend United vs Oxford United (5)
Shrewsbury Town vs Burton Albion (6)
Stevenage vs Gillingham (5)
Wycombe Wanderers vs Cheltenham Town (4) both sides to score
Aldershot Town vs Barnet (6)
Macclesfield Town vs Bury (6)
Stockport County vs Chesterfield (5)
Finnish Liiga Cup:
HJK Helsinki vs FC Honka Espoo (7) over 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga 2:
Erzebirge Aue vs FSV Frankfurt (5) draw no bet
Italian Serie A:
AC Milan vs Lazio (6) 2-1
Dutch Eredivisie:
De Graafschap vs FC Utrecht (6) 1-1
Scottish Premier League:
Aberdeen vs Celtic (7) over 2.5 goals
St.Johnstone vs Hamilton Academicals (6) 1-0
Welsh Premier League:
Llanelli vs Prestatyn Town (6) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!