Dinamo Minsk vs Club Brugge
FreeToday’s featured game is the UEFA Europa League game in Belarus between Dinamo Minsk and Club Brugge. Hosts Dinamo Minsk claimed a potentially invaluable away goal in Belgium in the first leg by dominating the first-half and taking a 1-0 lead into half-time. They eventually lost the game 2-1 but had that scoreline been offered to the Belarusian giants beforehand, I’m sure they’d have taken it as Belarus is no easy away venue for any side.
Dinamo Minsk lost 2-0 to Vysshaya Liga bottom club Torpedo Zhodino on monday but with the likes of Putsilo, Dragun, and Chukhley rested for that game, I wouldn’t read too much into, especially with manager Gurenko likely to have told them to take it easy as their dreams of a Vysshaya Liga title were heavily damaged by Shakhtyor Soligorsk in recent times. Dinamo Minsk have shown over the past few weeks that European football is their priority, understandably, and have demonstrated a maturity that you wouldn’t have expected from a predominantly youthful side. I’m sure that former player Gurenko is partially responsible for that having played a good deal of football outside of Belarus in his playing career so they’re not short on experience in that aspect. Gurenko is astute tactically too, knowing that Dinamo’s strength is midfield so he packs it with a 4-5-1 of good passers in a mini Barcelona-esque football approach. Captain Kislyak is the heartbeat of their midfield by scoring important goals and leading from the front. The dribbling skills of Putsilo and Rekish are a potent threat too, although Gurenko doesn’t like to field both of them at the same time usually. Dinamo approached their game in Belgium were cleverly by taking the game to Club Brugge in the first-half, claiming their prize, and then defending it rather well as an out-of-form Club Brugge side really struggled to break through their well-organised formation. Maccabi Haifa of Israel came here at the start of the month on the back of a 1-0 lead from the game in Israel and underestimated their hosts after taking an early lead. Wrongly assuming the tie was over at 2-0, Maccabi Haifa were duly punished and lost 3-1 on the night to a spirited and tenacious Dinamo Minsk side with the winner coming minutes from time from Dinamo academy product Putsilo, which was his second of the game. What Dinamo Minsk have demonstrated beyond all else in European football this season is that they’re adept tactically and very difficult to overcome over two legs so I expect them to make this game very hard indeed, especially as they have the rare advantage of actually playing their home games in European football at home, unlike BATE Borisov. The Dinamo Stadion has a massive 40,000 capacity and it should be pretty packed for this game so I expect strong home support for Dinamo tonight in a game that they have a very good chance of winning.
However, their more experienced European opponents, Club Brugge, will no doubt have other ideas. That said, they’ve shown very little thus far this season to suggest they’re capable of halting their Belarusian hosts. A rather poor transfer window for Club Brugge resulted in them losing key defenders Klukowski (to Ankaragucu) and Alcaraz (Wigan Athletic), not to mentioned experienced Wesley Sonck (to Lierse SK) in attack and those losses really look to have hurt them. They’ve brought in Standard de Liege striker Dalmat and Serbian striker Scepovic from Sampdoria and both should ultimately prove to be good acquisitions but Club Brugge’s problems have been in defence and their acquisitions there haven’t proved to be nearly as astute with Kucera (Sparta Prague), Camozzato (Standard de Liege), and Cigan (Kortrijk) elected to replace their departing defenders. Such a ruptute in a key area of the team has clearled unnerved Club Brugge and understandably so. However, they’ve not kept a clean sheet in all five competitive games this season, conceding eight times along the way. They lost the derby at local rivals Cercle Brugge in a bad-tempered affair (as usual!) and even lost at home to traditional home side Mechelen last match so morale isn’t exactly good at the moment in the Club Brugge camp. They still have some gifted attacking footballers but if Dinamo Minsk play their passing game against Club Brugge and take their chances, the Belgians could be out of this tie before they’ve even settled down. It doesn’t help that Club Brugge’s season has only just started and Dinamo Minsk are edging toward the end of their campaign either, something else which was evident in the first leg. Either way, the problems of Club Brugge are there for all to see currently – too easy to score against and generally easy to defend against.
Whereas I can’t deny that Club Brugge are the bigger and better of the two sides here, no side has an easy ride at the Dinamo Stadion and I expect that to be the case today. The last Belgian side to visit Belarus in a European game was AA Gent last year when they travelled to Naftan Novopolotsk in a similar scenario to today’s game with the Belgians expected to “do a job” on the inexperienced hosts and Gent lost 2-1. Dinamo Minsk are going to make this very hard for Club Brugge and although their inexperience in the middle may hinder them, their determination and ability should really overshadow that and I thus expect them to take advantage of a Club Brugge side currently inept at defending and ultimately claim a potentially very important home win. Odds of 29/20 look about fair on the selection but I think Dinamo have enough to make this a good value bet today although it should be a close game.
Incidentally, Dinamo Minsk are not inexperienced in Europe themselves – they’ve competed in the UEFA Europa League/UEFA Cup for four out of their last five seasons. They’ve not lost any of their last six home games in this competition, winning four times, and drawing twice. Only a solid Tromso side have prevented them from scoring here in those six games but everyone else has had a really tough ride here so the hosts should prove a tough nut to crack today.
Verdict: Dinamo Minsk to win at 29/20.
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro – draw at half-time/home win at full-time at 18/5.
This bet hinges entirely on Flamengo’s attack. It’s the predominant reason that they’ve failed to do anything of late, basically, their ineffectual attack. However, the returning experienced campaigner Dejan Petkovic and they’ve also finally realised their attacking issues since Adriano departed and brought in good strikers Deivid and Diogo so they should hopefully resolve their attacking problems tonight. Atletico Mineiro aren’t a bad side but they’re terrible away from home and that’s another aspect of this bet, of course. Statistics show Flamengo generally lead at half-time in 50% of their games but they’ve also been drawing in three out of those eight home games played at half-time so the possibility is there. In their last home game against Ceara, only a dubious penalty-kick on the stroke of half-time gave Flamengo the lead in a game that could have and probably should have ended in a draw, let alone been a draw at half-time. Flamengo’s attack should improve over the coming weeks with their recent additions but I think it’s too soon for them to be firing on all cylinders. Atletico Mineiro have lost six out of their seven away games this season, thus reinforcing my point about them being shit away from home. However, even Atletico have a vague concept of being able to defend against a fairly impotent Flamengo and given that four out of their seven away games this season have been draws at half-time, you have to fancy them to do a job at least for the first half tonight.
It’s a risky call, that’s for sure, but I think there’s value in this one because Flamengo should improve as the game goes on as Atletico Mineiro usually commit suicide at somepoint so I think that taking the draw at half-time and the home win by full-time at 18/5 looks a good bet tonight.
Verdict: Draw at half-time/Flamengo to win at full-time at 18/5.
Aktobe Lento vs AZ Alkmaar – under 2.5 goals at 10/11.
This game has under 2.5 goals written all over it! Aktobe Lento simply aren’t as good as Dutch opponents AZ Alkmaar but at the same time, Kazakhstan is never an easy place to play. Aktobe Lento beat Hapoel Tel-Aviv here 1-0 in their last European game but that was only from the penalty spot so I expect them to be fairly ineffectual against AZ’s reasonably reliable defence tonight. However, where are AZ’s goals coming from? Dembele has signed for Fulham and El Hamaoudi has joined AFC Ajax Amsterdam – even Lens has left and joined PSV Eindhoven! The first two alone contributed over a third of AZ Alkmaar’s goals last season and were the starting two each week so what are they going to do? Any replacements are going to take time to bed in and AZ as a result are only looking a threat from set pieces currently. I daresay they’re capable of fashioning a goal from somewhere here in Kazakhstan due to being the superior side but Kazakh football isn’t as bad as it once was so I fancy them to give the Dutch side a tough game. For me, this game is under 2.5 goals through and through; I’m just surprised at how generous the odds are.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 10/11.
Lech Poznan vs Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk – home win with draw no bet at 10/11.
I’m taking this with draw no bet as Lech’s season isn’t in full flow yet but they’ve finally showed signs of improvement lately so I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt here. They won the first leg 1-0 in Ukraine thanks to a dogged display and a bit of luck but perhaps they’ve earend that luck following a dismal start to all of their campaigns. Lech won the game despite missing most of their defence and took that momentum into the following league game against Cracovia Krakow, who were humiliated 5-0 thanks to an inspired display from Serbian attacker Stilic. They thus bring a lot of momentum into this game as well as their usual talented attacking football so I’ve got high expectations from them today. I’m concerned that captain Bosacki (defender) and full-back Gancarczyk are still injured for this game, not to mention influential attacker Peszko, so Lech will have some problems here. Rudnevs is cup tied in this competition unless Lech reach the group stage so it’s likely to be either experienced head Wichinarek or African wildcard Tshibamba in what should really be a 4-5-1. Dnipro have a very good side with the likes of ex-Dynamo Kiev midfielder Ruslan Rotan and ex-Shakhtar Donetsk striker Seleznev in their side but their problem has always been goalscoring so they should struggle here today. They even lost at a poor Serbian outfit Spartak Subotica earlier in this competition so I don’t fancy their chances too much here. The odds on the home win look tasty but I’d prefer to cover it with draw no bet given Lech’s defensive absences but there should be some value in the home win with draw no bet today.
Verdict: Lech Poznan to win with draw no bet at 10/11.
Fenerbahce vs PAOK Salonika – draw at either half-time or full-time at 3/4.
I think the odds are a bit too generous on this one. PAOK won this typically feisty game 1-0 in Greece and the traditional rivalry between Greek and Turkish sides naturally means that this game should be hotly-contested too. Fenerbahce have started their campaign badly, losing 3-2 to Young Boys Bern of Switzerland in their UEFA Champions League Qualifier (including a 1-0 defeat here!) and not only lost the first leg of this tie but also lost 3-2 at Trabzonspor in the Super Lig at the start of this week. Fenerbahce look anything but composed and in control currently with at least three red cards already brandished in their competitive games this season and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that tonight given the nationality of their opponents. PAOK Salonika are not vastly experienced and not a great side but they’re well-organised as they demonstrated in the first leg and I expect them to contain Fenerbahce rather easily tonight with the proviso that Fenerbahce take their usual droll approach to this game with a real lack of creativity. The signing of Niang from Olympique de Marseille was an inspired one but it’s too little too late, in my eyes. PAOK’s stubborn defensive tactics versus Fenerbahce’s relatively impotent attack and tempremental players should yield a draw in at least one of these halves, if not both, so that’s my recommendation today.
Verdict: Draw at either half-time or full-time at 3/4.
Fylkir Reykjavik vs KR Reykjavik – draw at half-time/away win at full-time at 17/4.
This is more of a fun bet than anything but I think the chances of it occurring versus the odds show a bit of value, really. Fylkir are very much a first-half team as four wins, two draws, and just one defeat in the first halves of their respective seven homes games in the Urvalsdeild this season indicates all too well. However, Fylkir have been rather poor of late and have only won once in their last five games, losing the other four along the way so I’m not sure they’ll get their token goal this time around. However, visitors KR Reykjavik love their half-time draws with four draws in eight away games in the Urvalsdeild at half-time. In their last game, they played out a 0-0 draw with Valur Reykjavik at half-time before winning 4-1 in the second half and KR have to be spurred on by the capitulation of title rivals FH Hafnarfjordur, Breidablik Kopavogur, and IBV Vestmannaeyjar in recent times so I do fancy them to win this one ultimately, although I’m a tad concerned about this being their third game in seven days.
However, this is a fun bet and I think it’s got a good chance of succeeding; enough so to take a chance on these odds so that’s my recommendation tonight.
Verdict: Draw at half-time/KR Reykjavik to win at full-time at 17/4.
Accumulator fodder:
Vitoria, Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota, AEK Athens, PSV Eindhoven, Levski Sofia, Austria Vienna.
Recommended bets:
Levski Sofia, PSV Eindhoven, and Vitoria at 3/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
UEFA Europa League Qualifiers:
Dinamo Minsk vs Club Brugge (6) 1-0
Qarabagh vs BV09 Borussia Dortmund (6) 1-2
Aktobe Lento vs AZ Alkmaar (4) under 2.5 goals
Maritimo Funchal vs BATE Borisov (4) 1-0
Lokomotiv Moscow vs Lausanne Sports (6) under 2.5 goals
Dnepr Mogilev vs Villarreal (7) 0-2
HJK Helsinki vs Besiktas JK (6) 0-1
Austria Vienna vs Aris Salonika (8) 2-1
Metalist Kharkiv vs Omonia Nicosia (7) 2-1
Brondby vs Sporting Clube de Lisboa (5) 1-1
APOEL Nicosia vs Getafe (5) 0-1
Unirea Urziceni vs Hajduk Split (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Litex Lovech vs Debreceni VSC (6) 1-1
Grasshoppers Zurich vs Steaua Bucharest (5) 1-1
Trabzonspor vs Liverpool (6) 1-1
Levski Sofia vs AIK Solna (8) 2-0
PSV Eindhoven vs Sibir Novosibirsk (9) -1.5 handicap
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs Paris Saint-Germain (5) 1-1
Tavriya Simferopol vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen (5) 0-0
AA Gent vs Feyenoord Rotterdam (6) 1-1
AEK Athens vs Dundee United (8) 1-0
VfB Stuttgart vs Slovan Bratislava (7) 1-0
Lech Poznan vs Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk (5) 2-1, draw no bet
FC Utrecht vs Celtic (6) 1-0
The New Saints vs CSKA Sofia (6) 0-1
Karpaty Lviv vs Galatasaray (7) 1-1
Maribor vs Palermo (5) 1-1
LOSC Lille vs Vaslui (7) 2-1
Elfsborg Boras vs SSC Napoli (4) 1-1
Juventus vs Sturm Graz (7) under 2.5 goals
Aston Villa vs Rapid Vienna (7) 2-1
Motherwell vs OB Odense (5) 0-0
Fenerbahce vs PAOK Salonika (4) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Manchester City vs Poli Timisoara (8) -1.5 handicap
Dinamo Zagreb vs Gyori ETO FC (7) 2-1
Porto vs Racing Genk (7) 2-1
Copa Sudamericana:
Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota vs Deportivo Lara (8) 2-0
Independiente vs Argentinos Juniors (6) 2-0
Brazilian Serie A:
Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro (6) under 2.5 goals
Vitoria vs Guarani (8) 2-1
Palmeiras vs Atletico Goianiense (7) 2-0
English League Cup:
Birmingham City vs Rochdale (7) 2-0
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
Fylkir Reykjavik vs KR Reykjavik (6) 1-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!