Dinamo Zagreb vs Sheriff Tiraspol
FreeToday’s featured game is the UEFA European Champions League Qualifier in Croatia betweein Dinamo Zagreb and Sheriff Tiraspol of Moldova. Both sides are very experienced in European competition following frequent appearances and both dominate their respective countries due to heavy financial investment.
With the first leg in Moldova ending in a 1-1 scoreline, the tie currently favours lavish hosts Dinamo Zagreb. However, the gap between the two sides is closing each year and although neither side played to their full potential in Moldova last week, this game certainly has the potential for goals. Dinamo is an interesting side due to the severe contrast in their displays i.e. beating Koper of Slovenia 5-1 at home in the last round of Champions League games and then losing 3-0 in the return leg. What remains constant with them, however, is their ability to bring goals into a game one way or another. Brazilian magician Sammir pulls all the strings for Dinamo Zagreb and he’ll be essential for them to do damage today. Dinamo lost Mandzukic to VFL Wolfsburg lately and have signed Ante Rukavina to replace him although his fitness is questionable ahead of this game. Dinamo’s defence has been a little shaky so far this season so Sheriff should have their chances today although don’t read too much into Dinamo’s defeat at home to Rijeka in the Prva Liga last match – I’ve not witnessed such a one-sided encounter result in a loss for the dominant side for a long time now! Five out of Dinamo Zagreb’s last eight Champions League games have gone over 2.5 goals and although Sheriff are primarily a defensive and thus under 2.5 goals side, Sheriff have to attack here so their usual defensive approach has to be abandoned somewhat. Both sides have sufficient match practice to do damage to each other today and the tie is poised perfectly for an overs game with the defensive side (Sheriff) having to come out of their shell to attack their potent hosts to try and qualify for the latter stages of this competition. The forecast for today in Zagreb is rain so this should really aid our cause with mistakes a-plenty at the Maksimir! It also dampens the spirit of the crowd, even convincing some not to turn out for the game so maybe Sheriff will make more of this game than I currently imagine from them. Either way, this game looks like an over 2.5 goals to me with the above in mind. I’ve got scorelines of 2-1, 3-1, and 3-0 in my head but I think over 2.5 goals at evens represents some value today.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Rosenborg BK vs AIK Solna – home win with -1.75 handicap at evens.
This is fairly self-explanitory, really. Rosenborg demonstrated in Sweden in the first leg that they’re the better side and although AIK are generally a good possession side, they offer so little in attack and defend naively against good sides that they should succumb to defeat here without too much ceremony. AIK were totally outplayed by their Scandinavian rivals in the first leg and I expect more of the same today. Although Champions League football is the pinnacle of club football for all European sides, I can’t help but feel that AIK would be quietly happy to be out of this tournament to focus entirely on trying to avoid their season being a complete nightmare. Rosenborg have been as dominang as ever in their domestic league this season because of their champions mentality and the addition of Eggen’s tactics in recent times has improved Rosenborg’s potency as a result. I simply feel that Rosenborg are far better placed than AIK are to win this game and that they simply have better players. AIK definitely aren’t what they were last season due to lots of internal problems at the club whereas Rosenborg are as good as ever. I feel that the game won’t be a whitewash because if there’s one thing that AIK actually can do then it’s defend but I still feel Rosenborg will have ample opportunities to beat the -1.75 handicap and it’s certainly worth a shot at the generous odds on display.
Verdict: Rosenborg BK to beat the -1.75 goal handicap at evens.
Espoo vs PK-35 Helsinki – away win at 5/4.
I can’t stop backing PK-35 Helsinki thanks to their excellent Ykkonen form! It’s got to come crashing down at somepoint but I’m going to ride it until it does because PK-35 are actually playing to their potential for a change. They’re the most in-form side in the Ykkonen with six consecutive wins (eight from their last nine!) and have scored a minimum of two goals per game for their past five games consecutively, which is primarily why they’re doing so well. Nigeria striker Daniel Nwoke is in great form and his performances always boost PK-35’s overall displays, hence such good form for the visitors. They’re playing so well and with such strong momentum at the moment that you have to back them to claim their sixth away win in eight away games this season against an inferior Espoo side. Ironically, the only side to take points off PK-35 in their past eight games is actually Espoo themselves, who won 1-0 in Helsinki. However, the game was a one-off with low-scoring Espoo needing a lot of luck to ride the win in that game. PK-35 will be seeking revenge in this game and with Espoo nose-diving in form (just one win in five games, which was against lowly HJK II!) after three defeats in five games, you have to favour their superior opponents today. Espoo don’t offer enough of a goal threat to match PK-35’s attack today so we really should see an away win as a result today. PK-35’s rivals Viikingit Helsinki won here 4-3 last match and I wouldn’t be surprised to see PK-35 score four goals here, given the form that they’re in. Either way, the value has to be in the away win here so that’s what I’ll be calling today as their newly-promoted hosts are beginning their descent earlier than I anticipated that they would and are losing games too easily at the moment as a result.
Verdict: PK-35 Helsinki to win at 5/4.
Gorzow Wielkopolski vs Sandecja Nowy Sacz – home win at 6/4.
This is a risky call but the odds make it look worthwhile to me. Gorzow have played well in their friendlies pre-season and look set to improve upon their ninth-place finish last season if that form continues. Gorzow brought in new coach Krzysztow Pawlak to attempt to steer the club to the Ekstraklasa and he’s done well thus far; this is the big test, however – the opening day of the season for both sides. Gorzow’s weakness is that they have a lot of young players in their side following plenty of summer departures but to be honest, the club has looked better for it so I’m hoping that carries over into their Liga 1 displays. It should also be noted that some of Gorzow’s new players i.e. Feciuch, Jaron, Jasinski, Ciach have all come from Ekstraklasa clubs so they bring some ability to this club that they didn’t really possess last season so I quite fancy them today at generous odds.
Sandecja Nowy Sacz were phenomenal last season, finishing third in the table against all the odds. However, the squad that competed in Liga 1 last season has been changed en mass with thirteen players leaving and thirteen arriving. They’ve brought in a couple of good players themselves i.e. Szczepanski, Kukol – but I feel that they’ve lost more than they’ve gained. Sandecja’s displays in friendlies have been somewhat poor because they keep changing squads and tactics and they just don’t look anywhere near as comfortable as they did last season. Maybe their form will improve as Liga 1 begins but I find it hard to believe that such a dramatic change can happen so early in the season. Sandecja have looked particularly weak in attack in recent times, which is what guides me even moreso towards the home win today. Frankly, I don’t think that the visitors are in a position for the hosts to fear them today – in fact, I think the reverse is applicable here.
Although this will most likely be a close game, I have to take a chance on the home win at 6/4 because of the reasons mentioned above and the odds are good enough to take a chance on, in my opinion.
Verdict: Gorzow Wielkopolski to win at 6/4.
Accumulator fodder:
Zenit St.Petersburg, Basel, Dinamo Zagreb, Rosenborg BK, Atletico Huila, Viikingit Helsinki.
Recommended bets:
Zenit St.Petersburg, Dinamo Zagreb, and FC Copenhagen at 3/1.
Viikingit Helsinki, PK-35 Helsinki, and PoPa Pori at 4/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
UEFA Champions League Qualifiers:
HJK Helsinki vs Partizan Belgrade (6) 0-1
Zenit St.Petersburg vs Unirea Urziceni (8) 2-0
FC Copenhagen vs BATE Borisov (7) 2-1
MSK Zilina vs Litex Lovech (5) 1-1
Basel vs Debreceni VSC (8) over 2.5 goals
Lech Poznan vs Sparta Prague (4) 0-1
Dinamo Zagreb vs Sheriff Tiraspol (7) over 2.5 goals
Fenerbahce vs Young Boys Bern (7) 2-1
Salzburg vs Omonia Nicosia (6) 2-1
AA Gent vs Dynamo Kiev (5) 1-1
Rosenborg BK vs AIK Solna (8) -1.75 handicap
PAOK Salonika vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (5) 1-1
Celtic vs Sporting Braga (5) 0-0
Copa Sudamericana:
Deportivo Quito vs Universidad San Martin (4) 1-1
Atletico Huila vs Trujillanos (7) 1-0
Gremio Prudente vs Atletico Mineiro (6) 2-1
Finnish Ykkonen:
KPV Kokkola vs OPS Oulu (6)
TPV Tampere vs PoPa Pori (6) over 2.5 goals
MP Mikkeli vs Jippo Joensuu (7)
Viikingit Helsinki vs HJK II (8)
Hameenlinna vs KooTeePee Kotka (6) under 2.5 goals
Espoo vs PK-35 Helsinki (7)
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
Breidablik Kopavogur vs Valur Reykjavik (5) 1-1
Polish Liga 1:
Gorzow Wielkopolski vs Sandecja Nowy Sacz (6)
Singaporean S-League:
Sengkang Punggol vs Gombak United (5) under 2.5 goals
Swedish Superettan:
Orgryte vs Angelholms (6) under 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!