Dunfermline Athletic vs Celtic
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Today’s secondary featured game is between Dunfermline Athletic and giants Celtic in the Scottish Premier League.
Dunfermline Athletic are bottom of the table and rightfully so, really – they’ve got the worst squad in the division. They started the season well with their carefree attacking approach but they’ve encountered a lot of problems in the form of injuries and that has subsequently led them to five defeats in their last six games, usually whilst conceding heavily along the way. Dunfermline may be able to spring the odd surprise and nick a goal here and there to upset their opponents but their defence is calamitous at best. Their defence is slow and predictable and Celtic should have a field day with that in mind. Mcintyre’s boys are not in great spirit for obvious reasons and the fact that they’ve shipped seven goals in their past two games without reply speaks volumes for how much they’re struggling, especially as their most recent crushing defeat came in a 0-3 result against St.Johnstone. Suffice t say that I don’t rate Dunfermline’s chances here!
Celtic are bigger and better than Dunfermline, to be horribly blunt. They weren’t impressive against Rangers but to be honest, they only part of that derby that was impressive was that it ended. Well, that and the fact that the wind got an assist for Joe Ledley’s header because there’s no way on earth that cross came purely from a strong foot! Celtic will take great momentum from getting one over on Rangers, especially as it puts them two points clear at the top of the table. Their statistics show them to be playing better than they are and thus I’m usually a bit cautious with Celtic, especially with the news that defensive powerhouse Majstorovic is out. However, Izaguirre is back to boost them in the full-back area and even Kayal’s absence in midfield today surely can’t dampen their spirits. Hooper is playing well this season up front and even Stokes knows how things go in the Premier League by now so there should be more than enough firepower for Celtic to do the job today.
Again, I’d be cautious about taking this bet against most other SPL sides right now but Dunfermline are just shocking, especially at the back, and thus Celtic not beating the handicap today will surprise me quite a lot. Therefore, my call is Celtic -1.5 at 4/5.
Verdict: Celtic to beat the -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, please find my value tips listed below in no particular order:
Queens Park Rangers vs Norwich City – away win with draw no bet at 8/5.
Looking at the recent displays of QPR and Norwich respectively, the value has to be with the visitors here. QPR’s heads have dropped and although I really rate Warnock as a good motivator, it’s becoming glaringly obvious that there’s a lack of talent in this QPR side in all areas and that is beginning to cause them a lot of problems. I mean, Lambert is working with Championship players too at Norwich but he’s making them play to their strengths with attacking football and it really suits Norwich. With QPR, it’s almost like Warnock feels that his side can sit back and defend ala Wolves, Stoke, Sunderland, Villa etc. but they just can’t do it. They look far too vulnerable at the back, especially in the middle of defence, and their offside trap is a bit of a joke, to be honest. Warnock has a lot of work to do if he wants to keep this side in the division as wealthy owner Tony Fernandes undoubtedly expects. Kenny returns in goal for QPR, which helps, but the absence of Ferdinand and Hall from the middle of defence further deepens their defensive issues, in my view. QPR just aren’t doing anything for me at the moment and although this is unquestionably a big game for them where they must take points, I just don’t see it coming.
Norwich look so much more dangerous in front of goal than QPR do that you’d never guess that they were both in the Championship last season. I still don’t know how Lambert does it but he’s proving to be a superb manager, in my view. Norwich have been a bit unlucky lately, coming up against two in-form London clubs and not really being able to demonstrate how able they actually are. Today should be the opportune moment for them to showcase how good they are in front of goal, though. Tierney and de Laet miss out for Norwich today but that doesn’t really concern me, to be honest, because Norwich pay very little attention to defending as it is. Besides – QPR’s only real threat is Helguson and as strong as he is aerially, there’s very little else to his game.
So yeah – I have to look at the value being on Norwich today. I think that they’re more than capable of attacking well and scoring goals here whereas QPR look a bit lost so my call is the away win with draw no bet cover at 8/5.
Verdict: Norwich City to win with draw no bet at 8/5.
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Chelsea – home win with draw no bet at 13/4.
Eyebrows up time, eh?
I’ve no problem admitting that this is a risky one but it’s one that I like an awful lot and I’ll explain why.
Wolves always, always, always get their game up when the big boys are in town. Check their record at Molineux against the bigger/wealthier sides in the division:
Wolves 2 Man Utd 1 – 2011
Wolves 1 Chelsea 0 – 2011
Wolves 0 Arsenal 2 – 2010
Wolves 2 Man City 1 – 2010
Wolves 0 Man Utd 1 – 2010
Now, I recall both of the only two defeats listed above well. The United 0-1 win was an absolute joke; United were outplayed and outfought for the whole game, which is how United’s games at Wolves usually go, to be honest – we needed Scholes to bail us out as the game went on. Arsenal won 0-2 because of a lightning start, scoring two goals very early in the game. After that, they weren’t in the game with Wolves dominating but failing to do the necessary damage. However, my point stands here – Wolves are very hard to face at home when the big sides are in town. It must be frustrating for McCarthy to get 100% commitment from his players in big games but 50% commitment in others but that’s how football goes, I suppose.
Ex-Burnley hitman Fletcher is in the form of his life and Wolves are doing well as a result with the Scot having bagged eight goals in fourteen game, leaving the higher-rated Kevin Doyle floundering with just two goals in eighteen games for Wolves this season. Wolves are a strong unit, though – they work hard for each other and have lots of battlers in midfield, which is precisely what should unsettle Chelsea today.
I’ve genuinely never seen Chelsea play with such a lack of confidence as they are right now. This is more than just a blip – it’s Villas-Boas attempting to take the side through a transitional period that frankly should have been started years ago so I do feel for him as he is a good manager, in my view. However, one thing he never really had to do with Porto was to pick his players up when things weren’t going their way but that’s the situation that confronts him now. Fans are reportedly unhappy with him, pressure is mounting, and a lot of big names are simply not delivering for Chelsea right now. It’s backs-to-the-wall time at the Bridge and there are very few that are standing up to be counted.
If you watch the highlights from Chelsea’s game with Aston Villa lately, ask yourself how many goals Villa would have scored without Chelsea lacking in composure, positioning, and confidence. For me, they wouldn’t have scored any but there’s such a low morale in the core of the team right now that it’s frightening. Terry is leading from the front but few others are with defenders going AWOL when being attacked and their strikers all but a shadow barring young Sturridge. Drogba’s a phenomenal talent but he’s being asked to drop deep and thus when he is in front of goal he’s not as lethal as usual. Anelka has unsurprisingly run after the man carrying the sack with a pound sign on it again, which has this time led him to China. That should make a nice change for the mercenary, eh? Torres is a phenomenal striker but we’ve not seen that since he went to Chelsea. Well, barring his strike from distance last match against Villa that rattled the crossbar. Again, there are too many players not turning up for Chelsea right now and they’re lacking leadership in midfield and in attack. They’re conceding too many stupid goals and Czech goalkeeper Cech looks utterly bereft of confidence. Chelsea really miss Essien in times like these, in my view, and it’s really going to cost them if they don’t do something soon.
This is the worst possible game that Chelsea could have right now, in my view. If they were played Arsenal or City or United then they’d be motivated and driven but they’re not; they’re just playing Wolves. It’s hard to pick your team up for a game like this, as sad as it is to say. Wolves’ midfielders ala Jarvis, Hunt, Henry etc. are all tenacious players and Chelsea’s fragile confidence may get eaten up by their physical hosts if they don’t get an early goal and/or put in a convincing display. The problem is that I can’t remember the last time that Chelsea put in a convincing display, nor the last time that they kept a clean sheet. It takes a great display to come from behind at Molineux to win and I just don’t think they have the belief to do it either. For me, there’s a lot of value on taking Wolves to win this one with draw no bet cover at 13/4, risky though it unquestionably is!
Verdict: Wolverhampton Wanderers to win with draw no bet at 13/4.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Engish Premier League:
Aston Villa vs Swansea City (5) 1-0
Blackburn Rovers vs Stoke City (5) 2-1
Queens Park Rangers vs Norwich City (5) 1-2
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Chelsea (4) 2-1
Fulham vs Arsenal (4) 2-1
English Championship:
Crystal Palace vs Leicester City (5) both sides to score
Doncaster Rovers vs Barnsley (6)
Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest (7)
Portsmouth vs Watford (5)
West Ham United vs Coventy City (7)
Cardiff City vs Reading (6)
Leeds United vs Burnley (4) both sides to score
Hull City vs Derby County (7)
Blackpool vs Middlesbrough (6)
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Southampton (5)
Peterborough United vs Birmingham City (5)
Scottish Premier League:
Hibernian vs Hearts (5) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Inverness Caledonian Thistle vs St.Johnstone (6) 1-1
Dundee United vs Aberdeen (4) 1-1
Dunfermline Athletic vs Celtic (8) 0-2
Kilmarnock vs St.Mirren (6) 2-1
Rangers vs Motherwell (8) 2-0
Welsh Premier League:
Afan Lido vs Port Talbot Town (5) 0-0
Airbus UK vs Bala Town (4) 1-1
Prestatyn Town vs Bangor City (5) over 2.5 goals
Carmarthen Town vs Aberystwyth Town (4) 1-1
Neath Athletic vs Llanelli (5) 2-2
The New Saints vs Newtown (8) 2-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!