Dynamo Kiev vs Besiktas JK
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Today’s secondary featured game is the UEFA Europa League encounter in Ukraine between Dynamo Kiev and Besiktas JK. The first leg ended 1-4 in favour of the Ukrainian side so utilise caution when betting on this game as even losing this game will see Dynamo Kiev through.
However, I have an awful lot of faith in this Kiev side under Yury Semin because he makes them play football all the time, attack properly, and take their chances. Kiev are the same side that they were earlier this season but it takes the right man to manage this team and Semin is absolutely that man. They’ve brought Guilherme back to compete with the likes of Milevskiy, Shevchenko, and Yarmolenko in attack and they all look better for the competition. Kiev are looking a very strong unit again, to be blunt! I wouldn’t read much into their form earlier this season, incidentally – Semin only took over recently but his last spell with the club was less than a year before that in which time he enjoyed great success with what I can only describe as his Dynamo Kiev.
It also aids my cause that Besiktas are in a terrible place right now. They’re not only conceding a stupidly heavy number of goals but they’re making silly errors, their individuals are having ego clashes i.e. Guti, and the fans are trying their utmost to get German boss Schuster fired for his team’s displays. Schuster doesn’t care; he’s told the fans to “like it or lump it”, basically. That doesn’t tend to go down too well with hot-blooded Turkish fans so I can only expect that Schuster is living on borrowed time. Since Besiktas were humbled in Istanbul by Dynamo Kiev, they were crushed 2-4 by bitter rivals Fenerbahce, which is yet another nail in the coffin lid. Confidence and cohesion is low in the Besiktas camp and their defence looks very suspect indeed. Besiktas know that they’re out here but in freezing temperatures in Ukraine, I don’t see them committing fully to this game, hence me favouring the hosts here.
These aren’t easy conditions to play in and the hosts have a lot to prove to their returning hero Semin so I expect quite the impressive Kiev display here, despite them not needing to win. I think 4/6 is a generous price based on what we saw in the first leg and given the number of issues that Besiktas has, I can only see Kiev winning this one today.
Verdict: Dynamo Kiev to win at 4/6.
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
PSV Eindhoven vs LOSC Lille – home win at 10/11.
Over 2.5 goals at 9/10 appeals to me as well as the home win here but I’m opting to stay with the hosts here.
PSV are simply the better of these two sides, in my view. I think it’s fair to say that Lille outplayed PSV in the first leg and yet it still ended 2-2 because PSV had that experience where it mattered and what affect has that fairly dramatic ending had for both sides since then? Lille lost 1-0 at impotent Montpellier HSC and PSV Eindhoven drubbed NAC Breda 4-1. Both sides score a lot of goals so over 2.5 goals looks tempting here but I can’t escape the feeling that PSV will put on a masterclass display and win it by a goal or two so I’m going to leave that particular market. PSV’s home record in Europe isn’t great this season but the sides they’ve failed to beat have specialised in defence and they’ve basically come to the Netherlands to defend, something that Lille can’t and won’t do. Lille’s strength is in attack with Belgian prodigy Hazard pulling the strings and Sow and Gervinho doing the remainder of the damage most of the time. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see this promising Lille side score against PSV tonight but it would surprise me to see them get something here. Eindhoven isn’t an easy away game for any side and I just think that PSV’s experience will show in this game, hence my call for the home win at decent odds.
Verdict: PSV Eindhoven to win at 10/11.
Sporting Braga vs Lech Poznan – both sides to score at evens.
Braga, Braga, Braga! I’ve done into great depth about this club’s problems and their problems are still getting worse with Alan and Custodio the latest casualties to hit their absentee list. The missing Vandrinho, Elderson, Paulao, and Paulo Cesar are crippling this side in every department and I expect to see more of the same tonight. The defeat in Poznan last week was a little harsh on them, considering that they played well for the majority of the game. However, a bit of brilliance from emerging Latvian striker Rudnevs and the game was won – hell, it could have been 2-0 given the way Lech played after they got that goal. Lech are coming to Portugal to counter-attack and given Braga’s defensive ineptitude of late, it’s fairly reasonable to expect the hosts to concede here as well as score, as they must score to even have a chance of progressing.
Lech have a bit of a secret weapon here though – Ivan Djurdjevic, formerly of Vitoria Guimaraes. As you probably know, Vitoria aren’t the biggest of friends with Braga and Djurdjevic will almost certainly spill his information about playing football in Portugal with the remainder of his teammates so I think Lech might produce a better display here than is expected of them. After all, they’ve played very convincingly so far in this tournament both at home and away so it’s reasonable to expect them to turn it on again. My only doubt is in their lack of competitive match practice but Braga’s weaknesses of late give me faith in Lech scoring here.
I expect an open game here because Braga have to attack and Lech love to counter-attack. There’s plenty of pace in both sides and we should hopefully see plenty of goals too. However, for me, the value is in backing both sides to score at evens with the above in mind.
Team news – Sporting Braga miss Alan, Paulao, Vandrinho, Elderson, and Paulo Cesar whilst having doubts over Custodio
Verdict: Both sides to score at evens.
Paris Saint-Germain vs BATE Borisov – both sides to score at evens.
PSG are laughably short for this game and I’m not entirely sure why. I wouldn’t move to say that they were on a par with BATE Borisov but in the same breath, I certainly wouldn’t give them 2/5 against this rapidly-ascending giant of Eastern European football. BATE Borisov are a unit of steel that very few sides have an easy ride against. The only games they’ve lost in European football this season have been those that they could afford to lose; the rest they’ve played very well in, scoring goals freely. The likes of Rodionov and Renan were expected to move on in the break but they’ve stayed at the Vysshaya Liga champions, demonstrating their financial clout and aspirations. PSG are still a massive name in France and have got some very good players, most notably Nene and Giuly, in my view. They’re a bit suspect at the back but their attacking ability tends to ensure that they win games. However, they’re facing a good side here so they’ll need to be at their best, in my opinion. One thing that PSG do have going for them is that BATE must attack here so the counter-attacking option does look favourable with their speedy wingers. Either way, given the potency of both sides, I think there’s a pretty good chance of both sides scoring in this game today in what should be a very interesting match – I certainly wouldn’t bank on PSG qualifying here, although they are favourites, of course. PSG looked very strong on the counter-attack against Nice at weekend although to be fair, a lot of that was due to Nice defending like schoolboys at times. Nonetheless, PSG’s attack was deadly and they secured three points as a result. This is a different type of game and I expect both sides to exploit each others’ weaknesses as both sides play very solid tactical games so I expect quite a lot of goals here although my call is for both sides to score.
Verdict: Both sides to score at evens.
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Independiente vs Penarol – over 2.5 goals at evens.
Games between Argentinian and Uruguayan sides tend to be violent affairs so don’t be surprised to see cards here. My call for this game is goals, however.
Both of these sides play attacking football and Independiente look to have given themselves a timely boost in attack by adding Defederico to a frontline already containing veteran Silvera, which promises to be an interesting partnership. Independiente’s home games tend to go over 2.5 goals in the continental competitions as they’re not the most experienced of sides nowadays and they attack rather naively at times. Nonetheless, this tactic earned them a place in the Copa Sudamericana Final last season, which they won, so don’t underestimate them here.
Penarol have had a disappointing start to their Primera Division campaign, considering the wealth of attacking talent available to them. Nonetheless, their games tend to include a lot of goals as they focus on attacking far more than defending and logically so too as they’re much better at it. They’ve re-acquired Urretaviscaya from Deportivo La Coruna, which is a good move from a talent perspective but a bad move as he’s a bit of a dickhead sometimes. Nonetheless, he adds even more potency to a really strong Penarol attack that already contains Pacheco and Estoyanoff so I think it’s quite possible that Penarol might give Independiente a better game than people expect.
These type of derbies either fizzle into goalless draws or burst into life and I’m hoping it’s the latter tonight. Neither side has found consistency yet this season and both look vulnerable in defence but strong in attack so my call is over 2.5 goals as it’s generously priced at evens.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs Gremio – under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
No altitude advantage for Atletico Junior Barranquilla here – just the knowledge that they took a good three points from Peru lately and the knowledge that they’re hosting a very good Gremio side tonight. Brazilian-Colombian match-ups have a tendency to go under 2.5 goals because the Colombian sides are arguably the most physically strong in South America and the Brazilian sides are the better sides for keeping the ball so we don’t tend to see many goals in these type of games. Gremio are not an away side whatsoever; they can’t win away from home frequently in Brazil, let alone outside of Brazil. The departure of star striker Jonas in January to Valencia CF will have hurt them as he was by far and away their best striker last season so again, Gremio look prime candidates for an under 2.5 goals call here. Atletico Junior look to dominate play but as with the vast majority of Colombian sides, they struggle to score goals on the continent so I’m expecting something of a stalemate here.
These type of games do tend to produce a lot of cards so be careful with your stakes as you all know what cards can do to games. However, a low-scoring host that would be happy with a draw facing a superior side that lack finesse and who would also be happy with a draw makes under 2.5 goals at 3/4 look very strong indeed, in my view.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Universidad de Chile vs Santiago Morning – home win with -1.5 handicap at 6/5.
Jorge Sampaoli has turned this “U” side around from the lacklustre, sleeping giants of last season into a roaring lion of success this season. Universidad have rediscovered their flair and they’re scoring goals for fun under their new boss and I see no reason to expect it to change tonight. Santiago Morning are a hard side to break down but as they don’t score goals themselves, when they concede, they tend to lose, hence me favouring the hosts tonight. Universidad are currently the best side in Chile, in my opinion – I just don’t see this kind of form from Universidad Catolica and certainly not from Colo Colo at the moment so the hosts are in a strong position. Momentum favours the hosts massively here, especially after they won their grudge match at home to Union Espanola last match, so confidence should be high here. Santiago Morning will look to postpone the inevitable here for as long as possible but with the way “U” are playing, I have to favour the hosts to beat the -1.5 goal handicap here, partially because then odds look more generous than they should be, partially because they’re scoring goals for fun, and partially because I don’t see the visitors scoring here. Therefore, “U” to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 6/5 looks a decent shout to me tonight.
Verdict: Universidad de Chile to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 6/5.
MyPa Anjalankoski vs Inter Turku – under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Five out of the last seven meetings between these two sides have gone under 2.5 goals because MyPa play boring and defensive football and because Inter Turku are very hard to get the ball off but rarely score goals. Inter competing in a game involving seven goals against FC Honka Espoo last match was just bizarre in every sense. Honka attract goals to them, admittedly, but it’s not like Inter to be drawn into such games so the result surprised me an awful lot.
However, I expect parity to be restored today because both sides generally look as impotent as ever, to be horribly blunt. It aids my cause that this game has acutally been moved to Myyrmaki-halli, which is an indoor arena in Vantaa, so the hosts aren’t actually on their home pitch here. The general concensus is that indoor games produce more goals than outdoor games and there may be some truth in that. However, what we have here are two of the most “under” sides in Finnish football, in my view, so we should see an under here.
If I had to be drawn into the 1×2 market then I’d side with Inter here because they’re simply a better team that plays better football. The reason I’m not entering that market, however, is that only Timo Furuholm scores goals for the visitors and that’s quite restrictive on them as a whole. Inter are a very good side, however, and should dominate the game here. MyPa have an unfortunate ability to score goals from nowhere that I’m hoping will slip by for this match but either way, under 2.5 goals still looks very generously priced at 11/10, which is probably due to the high number of over 2.5 goals games in the Liiga Cup thus far.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Accumulator fodder:
Zenit St.Petersburg, Universidad de Chile.
Recommended bets:
Dynamo Kiev, Zenit St.Petersburg, and PSV Eindhoven at 3/1.
Both sides to score in Braga vs Lech and PSG vs BATE at 4/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
UEFA Europa League:
Sporting Clube de Lisboa vs Rangers (3) under 2.5 goals
Liverpool vs Sparta Prague (7) 2-0
Spartak Moscow vs Basel (6) over 2.5 goals
Zenit St.Petersburg vs Young Boys Bern (9) -1.5 handicap
PSV Eindhoven vs LOSC Lille (6) over 2.5 goals
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Metalist Kharkiv (2) 1-2
Villarreal vs SSC Napoli (6) under 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Anderlecht (4) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Sporting Braga vs Lech Poznan (5) both sides to score
Dynamo Kiev vs Besiktas JK (7) 2-1
Manchester City vs Aris Salonika (7) 2-1
Twente Enschede vs Rubin Kazan (6) 1-0
VfB Stuttgart vs SL Benfica (4) 1-2
Paris Saint-Germain vs BATE Borisov (4) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Copa Libertadores:
Independiente vs Penarol (6) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Argentinos Juniors vs America (5) 1-1
Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs Gremio (6) 0-0, at least one red card in this game
Chilean Primera Division:
Universidad de Chile vs Santiago Morning (8) -1.5 handicap
Finnish Liiga Cup:
MyPa Anjalankoski vs Inter Turku (5) under 2.5 goals
Singaporean S-League:
Home United vs Gombak United (5) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!