Dynamo Kiev vs Manchester City
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First of all, guys and girls, please take care with betting today! The UEFA Europa League is highly unpredictable at the best of times and I can frankly find a lot of reasons to go for or against most bets tonight so keep stakes low or not at all or you’ll only have yourselves to blame! You have been warned!
My secondary featured game today is the UEFA Europa League encounter in Ukraine between Dynamo Kiev and Manchester City. The Valeri Lobanovskyi stadium has seen many surprises over the years with sides underestimating Dynamo Kiev so it’ll be interesting to see how Manchester City approach this game.
A lot of people have questioned why Dynamo Kiev are favourites for this game but for me, they’re priced about right. Dynamo Kiev are a vastly experienced European side whereas Manchester City are not, although it cannot be denied that certain members of their team are indeed experienced in European competition. In addition to that, the bookies are well aware that fans’ favourite Yury Semin is back at the helm, confidence is high, and goals are pouring in as a result for the Ukrainian hosts. Lastly, let’s also consider the freezing temperatures that this game will be played in and then you have the foundation for Kiev being favourites here.
Indeed, Semin’s Dynamo Kiev look unbeatable at times with their deadly trio of Yarmolenko, Shevchenko, and Milevskiy all bringing something different to Kiev’s offensive game. The experience of the battling Gusev and the set pieces of Vukojevic make this Dynamo Kiev midfield useful to their deadly trio in attack and although Kiev’s backline can be troubled at times in games of such magnitude, old hand Shovkovskyi is in goal to give the additional experience and leadership where required so all in all, this Kiev side is looking strong, especially with Brazilian Guilherme set to return to it at somepoint and the re-acquired Olexandr Aliev back in their ranks at long last. The future looks very bright indeed for Dynamo Kiev!
To be fair, the future also looks very bright for Manchester City. They’ve dealt well with competing on various fronts thus far and although they’re starting to lose a lot of players due to injuries in their hectic schedule, they’re still a force to be reckoned with and shouldn’t be taken lightly. However, it cannot be overlooked that this is City’s fourth game in eleven days and a trip to Kiev is never easy for any side, let alone one that has failed to win any of their last three away games in European football so they could be in for a rough ride here. I think that their fatigue will mean that they concede here, just as they have done in most of the UEFA Europa League games over the group stages and knockout round. However, the offensive power of City with the superb Tevez and magical Silva supporting him makes this City side very potent and liable to score at any given time and although the weather and temperature will make this game a very hard one to play in, you know that City have the ability to score here so I think that they’ll do that as long as Mancini doesn’t simply make his side sit back here.
Either way, Kiev will attack early in the game and most likely score because City’s defence is not particularly stable, especially without leader Kolo Toure. If they do that then Mancini will most likely try and push his side on to get a key away goal and if they find their rhythm then I’d expect them to score against Kiev’s occasionally susceptible defence. However, don’t expect an easy ride for the visitors here – Kiev have now bagged ten times in three games since Semin took over for a second spell and I expect them to play an attacking game and score goals tonight. Therefore, with the above in mind, my call is for both sides to score in this game at decent odds of 5/6.
Kiev have bagged seven goals in their last two UEFA Europa League games
Team news – Manchester City miss Milner, Johnson, Kolo Toure, and Given whilst having doubts over De Jong for this game.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 5/6.
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Spartak Moscow – home win with -1.5 handicap at 9/5.
As always with Ajax, my biggest doubt is whether they’ll take the innumerate chances that they tend to create in their games but if they do then they should clear this handicap easily.
El Hamdaoui is again excluded from the squad at de Boer’s request due to issues with his attitude and displays on the field so again Ajax are short of an experienced and naturally talented finisher. That said, Ajax again include Argentinian outcast Cvitanich, whom de Boer is finally gettng ready to give a chance to after previously having issues with the Argentinan’s fitness levels. Nonetheless, Ajax’s young team have done very well lately considering that they’ve not had a consistently good finisher in their team. They’ve smashed five goals without reply past Anderlecht of Belgium over two legs, drubbed Eerste Divisie outfit RKC Waalwijk 5-1 in the KNVB Beker, and even more impressively slaughtered a defensively-strong AZ Alkmaar 4-0. Confidence is high at the Amsterdam ArenA and when this Ajax side has confidence, they become a very dangerous side indeed to play against, especially with Danish hot prospect Eriksen pulling the strings. Ajax have a lot in their favour at the moment and if they’re prepared to take their chances in this game then they should win this one comfortably.
Spartak Moscow have played three competitive games over the past few months and were very unconvincing in at least two of the games. I’m of course referring to their two-legged victory over Basel of Switzerland in particular as they won 2-3 in Switzerland in a bizarre game before eventually scoring a late goal at home to Basel to draw 1-1 and progres so the next round. Spartak have also won at Sibir Novosibirsk in the Russian Cup, which is a difficult away game for any side so credit must go to Spartak there. Indeed, Spartak’s offensive power is quite dangerous in the right circumstances but what was discovered all too often last season was that Karpin’s team struggled without Welliton far too much and that they rarely played well without confidence and/or momentum. Well, Welliton is finally back after his lengthy lay-off with injury but will Karpin risk him here? I’m not sure that I would – he’s likely to be rusty and short on stamina and you need to be sharp and on your game against the vigilant Dutch masters. Aside from Welliton, Karpin finally has a full team to choose from so Spartak should be at least able to lay the foundations for a successful season by beginning a run of good form now. They’ll need to rely heavily on Ari in this game for goalscoring as his strike partner still isn’t 100% fit and also because he’s formerly of AZ Alkmaar and has played at the Amsterdam ArenA before. Support from Alex will be essential but frankly if Ajax manage to contain those two Brazilians then they should have this game all their own way, in my view.
Spartak’s success here will depend an awful lot on Argentinian centre-back Pareja too. At times, he holds this Spartak defence together as the rest aren’t too convincing, in my view. However, with little competitive match practice in comparison to that of their hosts, I think they may just struggle with Ajax’s pace and off-the-ball movement.
Again, my doubts are restricted largely to whether Ajax will convert their chances or not here but if they do take their chances and if they get an early goal then I think they’ll be able to beat this handicap as Spartak will absoutely want an away goal before a very difficult return leg. Therefore, my call is a risky one but it’s generously priced at 9/5.
Team news – AFC Ajax Amsterdam miss El Hamdaoui whereas Spartak Moscow have doubts over Welliton..
Verdict: AFC Ajax Amsterdam to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 9/5.
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CSKA Moscow vs Porto – away win with draw no bet at 10/11.
I agonised over this one for a while until I saw how much effort Porto had put into their preparations for this game and that finally convinced me to side with the Portuguese giants here.
You see, CSKA Moscow actually have a pretty big problem at the moment and it’s their ability – or lack of – to score goals. They failed to consistently threaten PAOK Salonika’s goal in their two ties against the Greek side and were unimpressive in front of goal at weekend during their 1-0 defeat against Zenit St.Petersburg in the Russian Super Cup. Effectively, CSKA Moscow have become a side yet again that cannot consistently score goals unless Vagner Love is in the mood. Necid is a good striker when it suits him (due to his tender years) but their midfield aren’t scoring anywhere near enough goals nowadays and it’s really harming them as a unit. Defensively, CSKA’s guys have been together for years and they’re generally very hard to penetrate. However, they are particularly vulnerable to pace and with a daunting trip to the Estadio do Dragao looming for the return leg, you have to envision CSKA attacking here to take a favourable result back to Portugal. That then leaves CSKA with the unfortunate problem of Porto’s lethal counter-attacking pace with both Cristian and James Rodriguez, Varela, Hulk, and Falcao ready at the drop of a hat to tear the hosts’ defence apart. Falcao’s incisve finishing and Hulk’s ability to score from anywhere makes this Porto side frightening enough as it is but the vigilance of boss Villas-Boas in preparing his side impressed me massively. He managed to leave Hulk out of the squad against Vitoria Guimaraes by saying he was injured but he’s travelled to Russia for this game, somewhat predictably! The Porto boss has all kinds of options for this game and has already stated that the one forced change that he’ll need to make is to remove Alvaro Pereira from the team as he’s suspended. He’ll subsequently be replaced by fellow countryman Jorge Fucile. Porto’s counter-attacking ability has caused innumerate problems for many sides in this competition thus far and I can’t see that changing today either, especially not with “the new Mourinho” in charge.
Villas-Boas’ players have been training at Luzhniki well in advance of this game to get used to the artificial turf so I don’t see that favouring the hosts excessively although it will obviously still be a factor. Nonetheless, I simply rate Porto’s incisive attacking play far moreso than I do CSKA’s at the moment and with Porto’s continually impressive displays on every front so far this season, I have to give them a chance here, especially seeing how seriously they’re taking this game. They’ve played a lot more competitive games than CSKA have recently and should be better prepared for a fesity game than their hosts so again, I fancy Porto to do well here. The last factor to counter here is that of the freezing cold temperatures but as Villas-Boas put it – they’ve already done this kind of thing in Vienna against Rapid Vienna so it’s not unfamiliar territory for the Dragons. For me, the away win with draw no bet cover at 10/11 appeals here as I don’t see CSKA scoring enough goals to win the game.
Team news – Poto miss Alvaro Pereira.
Verdict: Porto to win with draw no bet at 10/11.
Union Espanola vs Velez Sarsfield – away win at 21/20.
Union Espanola welcome back Estevez, Cordero, and Liguera for this game and boy will they need them if they intend on beating Velez Sarsfield with a display akin to the one they showed against Colo Colo lately!
Union Espanola are a decent side as far as their starting eleven goes but they’re not experienced on the continent and it’s shown with ineffectual displays against an average Bolivar La Paz side in the qualifiers to get here, not to mention the home draw with countrymen Universidad Catolica and the defeat at Caracas in Venezuela. Union Espanola are working hard enough but competing on various fronts isn’t something that they’re well-equipped to do and if they’re not careful then it’ll derail their season, in my view. Espanola need to be more clinical in front of goal and it’s something that Sebastian Jaime in particular has been criticised for lately by the Chilean press despite the Argentinian striker bagging three goals in five games. You just can’t please some people, eh? The Argentinian responded to his critcism by simply getting on with his football and I’m sure he’ll be back to his best in no time with ex-Chilean playmaking genius Jose Luis Sierra at the helm. I expect Union Espanola to give Velez Sarsfield a run for their money here. However, I don’t see them having the firepower to do a sufficient level of damage here and with important defenders Olarra and Espinoza both remaining serious doubts for this game, I think the Chilean hosts could end up really struggling here.
Visitors Velez Sarsfield haven’t started their campaigns particularly well but that’s easily attributed to the absence of star striker Silva. It’s no coincidence that since his return, Velez have beaten local rivals Boca Juniors 1-0 in a composed and assured display. The Uruguayan target man is a big part of this team (no pun intended!) and his return should spark a revival in Velez’s displays. They were unlucky against Catolica with the red card and the capitulation that followed, which is something that I really don’t expect to see again in the near future as it’s just not their style. Velez are a very good side on the ball and they don’t concede goals easily so I’m going to chalk that one down to a freak result until I see something that makes me believe otherwise. For me, Velez are rapidly emerging as one of the leading South American sides with an uncanny ability to keep hold of their star players and that makes them a very dangerous side to play against. They’ve got more experience and better players than their hosts so I fancy their chances here.
I’d leave the selection if the odds drop below evens as there are very few games in this competition where the away team is worth backing at below evens and this game simply isn’t one of them, in my view. However, odds of 21/20 for the superior and more potent of these two sides to win this game appeals to me here, especially with no notable geographical advantages for the Chilean hosts although do exercise some caution as Velez miss experienced defender Ortiz for this game.
Team news – Union Espanola have doubts over Olarra and Espinoza whereas Velez Sarsfield miss Ortiz.
Verdict: Velez Sarsfield to win at 21/20.
Cerro Porteno vs Deportivo Tachira – home win with -1.5 handicap at 6/5.
Despite their experience on the continental front, I usually avoid handicapping Cerro Porteno because of their leaky defence. To be honest, that’s still a concern here as the Paraguayan giants do generally look able to concede against anyone. However, their offensive firepower and the inexperience indicated by their opponents in recent Copa Libertadores games makes the odds on the handicap look tasty here.
Let’s face it – Tachira are going to come to Paraguay and park the bus because if they take Cerro Porteno on in an open game of football then they’ll be ripped apart. However, Cerro Porteno boast an advantage in attack that not many South American sides do on a regular basis – height. I’m referring more specifically to Argentinian striker Roberto Nanni, who is a potent aerial threat and thus gives Cerro Porteno a big advantage in games like this. Cerro Porteno managed to counter an attacking Colo Colo side in their last Copa Libertadores home game as Colo Colo decided to play their all-out-attack game which ended disastrously for the Chileans with Cerro Porteno running riot in a 5-2 win. Deportivo Tachira will be keen to avoid such a result tonight so I expect a very different game here. However, with Nanni’s ability in the air and the support of both Bareiro, Lucero, and the emerging striker Iturbe, Cerro Porteno should have the firepower to do damage here, especially with the high level of creativity coming from midfield with Dos Santos and Ferro there. This Cerro Porteno side is only geared up to attack well and to be fair, that’s what they do and that’s all they’re good at so I expect to see that enforced tonight, especially after a surprising but morale-boosting 1-1 draw in Brazil with Santos in their last Copa Libertadores game.
Deportivo Tachira welcome back Andres Rouga from injury and it’s a massive boost for the Venezuelans as they’ve been conceding a lot of goals lately, both domestically and on the continent. Despite a household name in Venezuelan football, Deportivo Tachira are surprisingly inexperienced in continental football in recent years and it’s really shown lately with an impotent display against Santos (fair enough – Santos are a good side in attack but not in defence!) and a 2-4 defeat at home to Colo Colo. Tachira look unable to deal with sides that attack them fearlessly and that’s exactly what I expect them to receive tonight. They’re capable of scoring goals themselves and to be honest, even if they weren’t then I’d still expect them to score as Cerro Porteno are almost masochistic in their defensive methods at times. However, Tachira’s ability to concede goals is simply huge due to their reckless playing style and they actually lost their last trip to Paraguay by a scoreline of 3-1 at Cerro Porteno’s bitter rivals Libertad Asuncion just over a year ago so it’s certainly possible again tonight.
I’d not go sticking your house on this one as Cerro Porteno can occasionally produce what I dub their “stupid displays” whereby the try to knock the ball around casually and create very little. This isn’t their playing style and it doesn’t suit them whatsoever. I’m expecting them to go gung-ho here in an attempt to reach the latter stages of the Copa Libertadores and attacking this Deportivo Tachira side should yield good results. Over 2.5 goals looks tempting here but for me, Cerro Porteno -1.5 is priced far too long at 6/5 to beat a relatively inexperienced and defensively-inept Deportivo Tachira tonight so that’s my call here.
Verdict: Cerro Porteno to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 6/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Cerro Porteno, AFC Ajax Amsterdam, PSV Eindhoven, Tampines Rovers.
Recommended bets:
Cerro Porteno and PSV Eindhoven at evens.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
UEFA Europa League:
CSKA Moscow vs Porto (4) 0-1
PSV Eindhoven vs Rangers (8) 2-0
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Villarreal CF (4) 1-0
Sporting Braga vs Liverpool (6) under 2.5 goals
SL Benfica vs Paris Saint-Germain (5) 2-1
Dynamo Kiev vs Manchester City (5) over 2.5 goals
Twente Enschede vs Zenit St.Petersburg (4) 1-2
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Spartak Moscow (8) 2-0
Copa Libertadores:
Union Espanola vs Velez Sarsfield (6) 1-2
Cerro Porteno vs Deportivo Tachira (8) over 2.5 goals
Independiente vs Godoy Cruz de Mendoza (6) 1-2
Scottish Premier League:
Dundee United vs Hamilton Academicals (8) 2-0
Singaporean S-League:
Tampines Rovers vs Tanjong Pagar (9) -1.5 handicap
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Club Nacional de Montevideo vs El Tanque Sisley (7) 2-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!