Elfsborg Boras vs Helsingborg
FreeI think I’ve stumbled upon the reason there was no value yesterday – it’s all in today’s games, apparently!
Today’s featured game takes us to Boras in Sweden to cast an eye over the mouth-watering tie between Elfsborg and Helsingborg. Both are giants of the Allsvenskan and with both sides keen to claim a European place for next season’s European competition, this game is still very much an important one despite only four games apiece remaining this season.
Hosts Elfsborg Boras have a massive advantage over the majority of their rivals when playing at home and that is that the Boras Arena has an artificial turf surfce. When you consider that fact, it’s easy to see why Elfsborg’s home record shows nine wins and four draws from thirteen home games this season, not to mention the fact that they average scoring just under three goals per home game. It also aids their cause that they’re a damn good side and had it not been for a poor start to their Allsvenskan campaign then I’d fully expect the current battle at the top of the table to include Elfsborg’s name instead of just Malmo and Helsingborg. Only four sides have avoided defeat at Elfsborg this season – IFK Goteborg, Malmo, Orebro, and BK Hacken Goteborg. The first two managed it because they’re good sides, Hacken did because they’re a bogey team of Elfsborg, but Orebro did because they also use artificial turf so Elfsborg lose the home advantage. With the above in mind, Helsingborg are going to find life tough here as even the biggest sides in Sweden have this season. A lot of Elfsborg’s potency stems from star striker Denni Avdic, who has bagged eighteen goals in twenty-five Allsvenskan appearances this season and has thus deservedly brought in attention from overseas. Elfsborg are not a one-man team; they have many good individuals. However, whilst most of those individuals have suffered with injuries at somepoint during this season, Avdic has been responsible for carrying today’s hosts and his ability is there for all to see and it should be visible again tonight.
However, the overwhelming factor behind the call of a home win in this game today lies within Helsingborg. Helsingborg aren’t playing well, in my opinion; they’re simply not handling the title race well due to pressure. Their displays are whole-hearted but not overly convincing on the quality front. They’ve conceded for six consecutive games and have only won once in their last four away games, which was a game at an AIK Solna side that arguably deserved something from the game in a 2-3 scoreline. Interestingly enough, Helsingborg were trashed 3-0 by Orebro during that run and that was their last trip to play on artificial turf so I wonder how they’ll fare tonight? Aside from that factor, Helsingborg also have numerous missing players that are really going to hurt them. For example, they’re missing duo Gashi and Lindstrom from midfielders, who are two regular starters each week. Then consider that they’re missing Edman and Ekstrand from defence, who again, are two regular starters, and you have to start to be concerned. A trip to Boras is never taken lightly but with four first-team starters missing, they’re going to have a hellish time, particularly as defending has been a real weakpoint of Helsingborg’s of late! Do wait and see the line-up before making your mind up as some of these players are still listed as “doubts” rather than “absentees” but I really don’t fancy an unconvincing Helsingborg side to get anything here, particularly with their previous game being a 0-1 defeat at home to lowly GAIS Goteborg.
Ironically, Helsingborg haven’t scored for five consecutive visits to face Elfsborg and they’ve lost three of those visits so this bet looks almost too good to be true today. That actually bothers me, however – when games look too good to be true, they generally fail! However, all superstitious sentiments aside, the odds on the home win today look good enough to take although I’d leave it if they nosedive below evens.
Verdict: Elfsborg Boras to win at 11/10.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Chernomorets Burgas vs Lokomotiv Sofia – under 2.5 goals at evens.
This selection looks far too generously priced for my liking and I can only attribute it to the excellent form of strike duo Genkov and Boateng for Lokomotiv Sofia because nothing else fits here. The last five meetings between these two sides have gone under 2.5 goals and with Chernomorets Burgas having never been a more perfect example of a “1-0 home win side” in their existance, we look likely to see another under 2.5 goals game here today. Lokomotiv aren’t as good on the road as they are at home, understandably, but they’re good enough to give the hosts a game here. However, it’s literally going to be defence versus attack as Chernomorets are one of the most defensively-secure sides in the A PFG and Lokomotiv boast the best strike partnership in the division currently. The hosts don’t concede often though and six out of their nine A PFG games this season have gone under 2.5 goals so this one looks likely to do so too.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
HJK Helsinki vs TPS Turku – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
The Veikkausliiga is notorious for over 2.5 goals games and yet ironically, my tip involves one of the two sides in the Veikkausliiga who average 2.42 goals per game they compete in! However, I’m choosing to ignore that because there is revenge at stake and the visitors need the points. A win today gives HJK Helsinki is unnecessary as they’ve already won the Veikkausliiga title but it allows them to gain revenge over TPS Turku, who beat them in the Suomen Cup Final a couple of weeks ago, so the motivation will be high for the hosts today. That said, TPS Turku will not want to lose to their rivals despite already being assured a UEFA Europa League place next season. Let’s not forget that a win here also threatens KuPS Kuopio as TPS Turku would draw level with the second-placed side and with increased TV revenue in the Veikkausliiga this season, TPS Turku would potentially be able to bolster a fairly thin squad over the break with a bigger budget so they will have motivation to win this one too.
Three out of HJK’s last five Veikkausliiga games have gone over 2.5 goals as HJK have seemingly lost the ability to defend, having now conceded for seven consecutive games in all competitions. In addition to that fact, TPS Turku’s last eight Veikkausliiga games have gone over 2.5 goals as they’ve peaked at just the right time, even winning the Turku derby at Inter Turku along the way so momentum and confidence is sky-high and they’ll want to end the season with a bang, just as their hosts will in the final home game of the season for HJK Helsinki.
I was tempted to take the home win at generous odds but I’m choosing over 2.5 goals instead as it looks far better value given HJK’s unconvincing displays of late and the lack of reasoning behind them winning this game as the title is already theirs.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Inter Turku vs MyPa Anjalankoski – home win at evens.
I like this one a lot although I’d be lying if I said that the basis was anything more complicated than the fact that Inter Turku are a good side and MyPa Anjalankoski are shit!
However, I’m also encouraged by Inter’s late surge of form so that also plays a big part here. They’ve played nothing like expected this season with relentless attacking displays replacing stout defensive displays and goals galore being scored as a result. Inter have won four out of their last six games and have won their last two home games consecutively so they do have momentum on their side here. They’ve bagged nine times in four games and have drawn at league leaders HJK Helsinki during that run so my respect goes to the sleeping giants. They’re clearly encouraged by the fact that they can yet poach FC Honka Espoo’s UEFA Europa League placing if they keep winning and Honka keep playing as badly as they are then they’ll get it despite a bizarre campaign so they’ve both motivated and potent, thus making them a dangerous side.
MyPa are little more than an anti-football defensive unit that have nothing to play for this season. The fact that they’ve won twice in their last ten games should speak volumes as they simply don’t give a shit and don’t play good football and it’s also worth noting that those wins were both at home. They’ve lost three consecutive away games thanks to inept defending that has seen them leak eight goals along the way. They’ve not won an away game in their last six attempts and with no reason to win this game (they’d have to hit a miraculous set of circumstances to be relegated now!), I doubt they’ll do it today.
Inter should be good enough to claim the win here and with motivation and momentum high in this game, I fancy them to do the necessary damage at evens.
Verdict: Inter Turku to win at evens.
Arminia Bielefeld vs MSV Duisburg – away win at 27/20.
I fancy this one a lot more than I should, really. Financially-crippled Arminia Bielefeld have been terrible this season with six defeats in seven games and it’s no surprise with a whole host of departed players over the summer. Bizarrely, the bookies have overlooked that fact today, as well as the fact that regulars Heidinger and Neuville are severe doubts fitness-wise for this game, which leaves Arminia with a bunch of kids against one of the better sides in the Bundesliga 2. The visitors aren’t in the best of positions themselves financially but they still boast a good side and have looked strong this season. Duisburg aren’t as strong as they’ve been in recent years but they’ve been unfortunate on the road this season, in my humble opinion, but I expect to see that rectified today. Five wins in seven Bundesliga 2 games says that Duisburg are playing well enough to win this game tonight and with the hosts looked weak and demoralised, the away win at 27/20 appears too generously priced today.
Verdict MSV Duisburg to win at 27/20.
Padova vs Cittadella – home win at 4/5.
Padova are boring but efficient with it – that’s unusual in Italy’s Serie B(!)
Seriously though, I fancy Padova as outsiders for promotion this season. They’re a lot like Cesena from last year – hard to beat, tight at the back, and good in front of goal. Only recently-relegated Atalanta Bergamo, Siena, and promotion hopefuls Empoli have conceded less goals than Padova have this season so we can see the strength of their defence. They’ve been surprisingly potent at home given their dogged tactics, however, with ten goals scored in four home games, winning three times and drawing once along the way. Impressively, they’ve only conceded once during that run and look set to have yet another envious Serie B home record this season. Striker Davide Succi is the reasoning behind Padova’s lethal attack with the new signing having scored seven times already this season and he could be the key factor behind Padova’s promotion push. All in all, Padova are starting to look a more experienced side and thus more dangerous side than last season and with such impressive form behind them, I fancy them to do damage today.
Visitors Cittadella are having a nightmarish season and currently occupy a relegation place as a result. Six defeats in nine games says that Cittadella will not be finishing as high in the table as they did last season. Statistics show that they’ll do well to stay in Serie B this season, in fact, so I expect them to struggle against a strong Padova side today. They’ve played four away games in Serie B and have lost all of them this season, two against promotion favourites but two against poor sides so I don’t fancy them at all against a very strong unit. Cittadella’s capitulation isn’t random, of course – it stems from massive losses over the summer. Star striker Ardemagni left to join Atalanta Bergamo, important defender Cherubin left to join Bologna, second striker Iunco left to join Torino, important midfielder Pettinari left to join Atalanta Bergamo, and even back-up striker Oliveira left to join Vicenza. Those losses have basically left Cittadella short all over the park and it’s really showing. The last thing you want to do against Padova is show weakness and that’s exactly what they’ll be doing so I envision a long, hard, and ultimately disappointing night for the visitors tonight.
Summarised – Padova look stronger than last year and Cittadella look a lot weaker. I think the odds on show represent the sides of last year and not this year or Padova should be shorter in my eyes. Therefore, the home win for this game is my call tonight.
Verdict: Padova to win at 4/5.
Hercules Alicante vs Villarreal – away win at 3/2.
This game is a Valenciana derby of sorts so approach with caution here as it’s not been played for a while!
However, I’m going to wade boldly in as I fancy Villarreal to edge it and think that the odds are surprisingly generous on them doing so. Ok, so this isn’t a Pellegrini Villarreal side and they’re obviously not the same side as a result. However, they still possess quality players in their side i.e. Senna, Nilmar, Rossi. Unlike Pellegrini’s Villarreal, this side is now backed up with the experienced names of Capdevila, new signing Marchena (who misses this game through injury), Senna, and David Lopez, who weren’t necessarily all that experienced when the Chilean was in charge. Moreover, the strike duo of Rossi and Nilmar look lethal at present and the twosome have steered Villarreal to five wins in six games as they start the season ominously well. Villarreal have now won five consecutive games ahead of this match thanks to clinical finishing, good football, and good composure. Am I concerned about their mid-week game at home to PAOK Salonika in the UEFA Europa League? Not really – it’s at El Madrigal and PAOK are in dire straits currently so I think Villarreal will focus on this derby instead.
Villarreal should enjoy possession in the middle of the park with Hercules Alicante midfielder Aguilar missing the game through suspension and that will destroy Hercules as Senna will be given room to do as he pleases. Hercules have impressed in spells in the Primera Liga but life without the ball is difficult and I don’t see them having much of it against their more illustrious local rivals without their main holding midfielder. Trezeguet and Haedo-Valdez are forging a good partnership in attack so they will undoubtedly give Villarreal something to think about tonight but again, without the ball, strikers are redundant. Hercules took a 3-0 pounding at Getafe last match and that’s got to have hurt them as it yet again rams home their defensive ineptitude. It’s not good enough to turn up at Nou Camp and defend like heroes and then going to Getafe and getting steam-rollered. The fact is that they’re not good at defending – they’re simply quite well-organised and hard-working but that’s not enough in the Primera Liga, more often than not, and I think we may see Hercules outclassed tonight by a better side.
Hercules have already lost at home to Valencia CF in their other derby and I think they may encounter the same fate against a good Villarreal side too. Villarreal have too much ability for the hosts and I think with the ball theirs to command, Villarreal could and should make odds of 3/2 look very good value indeed tonight.
Verdict: Villarreal to win at 3/2.
Accumulator fodder:
Omonia Nicosia
Recommended bets:
Duisburg and Padova at 3/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Bulgarian A PFG:
Chernomorets Burgas vs Lokomotiv Sofia (7) under 2.5 goals
Cypriot Division 1:
Omonia Nicosia vs Olympiakos Nicosia (9) -1.5 handicap
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Slovacko vs Sigma Olomouc (5) 1-1
Danish Superligaen:
Randers vs Midtylland (4) 2-1, draw no bet
English Premier League:
Blackburn Rovers vs Sunderland (6) under 2.5 goals
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
HJK Helsinki vs TPS Turku (6) over 2.5 goals
Inter Turku vs MyPa Anjalankoski (7) 2-0
French Ligue 2:
Boulogne vs Nantes (5) draw no bet
German Bundesliga 2:
Arminia Bielefeld vs MSV Duisburg (7)
Italian Serie B:
Padova vs Cittadella (7)
Empoli vs Siena (6)
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Dordrecht ’90 vs Veendam (5) both sides to score
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Tromso vs Molde FK (5) 1-2, draw no bet
Romanian Liga:
Universitatea Cluj vs Victoria Branesti (7) 2-0
Brasov vs Universitatea Craiova (6) under 2.5 goals
Singaporean S-League:
Gombak United vs Young Lions (7) 2-1
Spanish Primera Liga:
Hercules Alicante vs Villarreal (6) 1-2
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Elfsborg Boras vs Helsingborg (6) 2-1
Malmo vs Kalmar (7) under 2.5 goals
Turkish Super Lig:
Konyaspor vs Fenerbahce (6) 1-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!