Emelec Guayaquil vs Internacional
FreeFirst of all – apologies for the downtime, guys. I have no further information on it than you do – Toby was addressing the issue with the hosts so all I can presume is that the issue is sorted so let’s get on with our lives!
Today’s secondary featured game is the Copa Libertadores game in Ecuador between Emelec Guayaquil and Internacional. Hosts Emelec are starting to get onto the continental scene a lot more but they’re still relatively inexperienced, especially in comparison to Brazilian giants Internacional!
I feel a bit sorry for Emelec Guayaquil because unlike most Ecuadorian sides, they don’t have an altitude advantage, which is a massive blow, bigger than most people acknolwedge it to be. You see, clubs like Deportivo Quito and Liga de Quito dominate the Ecuadorian Primera A on a regular basis but Emelec aren’t too far behind them. However, you’d not know it from the comparitive displays on the continent as the Quito clubs tend to do well and the Guayaquil clubs tend not to, which is all because of altitude, really. Guayaquil is a port on the Ecuadorian coast, however, so it’s quite possible that Internacionaly play at marginally higher altitude than Emelec, amusingly! Consequentially, Emelec’s home record in the Copa Libertadores leaves a lot to be desired with just three goals scored in their last four Copa Libertadores home games, failing to score in their last two consecutively. They’ve lost at home to Uruguayan side Cerro, who weren’t the best in Uruguay even at the time, as well as local rivals Deportivo Quito, whilst having overcame Argentina’s Newells Old Boys 2-1 and having drawn 0-0 with tonight’s opponents Internacional. Emelec find it hard to score goals against good sides and that’s going to be an issue for them tonight too, in my view, so I don’t see them getting a positive result here.
My biggest issue with Internacional has always been a lack of attack for them. Their midfield is quite excellent on its day with some great playmakers like D’Alessandro in there. However, they lacked finesse in front of goal and it’s cost them on more than one occasion so they’ve finally done something about it by signing ex-River Plate target man Fernando Cavenaghi, which is a great signing for them! Now there’s Cavenaghi, Alecsandro, and Rafael Sobis, which looks an awful lot more dangerous and makes Internacional look a lot more dangerous as a whole, in my opinion. Internacional’s away record in continental football isn’t great due to a lack of attack at the time and also due to them frequently encountering Brazilian and Argentinian opponents. When facing “lesser” sides, so to speak, they tend to draw due to not scoring enough. However, I’m expecting powerful striker Cavenaghi to make the difference for the visitors tonight and given that there’s no altitude advantage for the hosts, I have to favour the Brazilian visitors here.
I don’t expect a goal rush here; far from it. However, I don’t see Emelec breaking through a good Internacional side but I do think Internacional can win this game due to their strong midfield and dangerous attack so my call is the away win at 21/20, especially as the odds seem to suggest that Emelec has an advantage here that they don’t actually have…
Verdict: Internacional to win at 21/20.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
VPS Vaasa vs RoPS Rovaniemi – over 2.5 goals at 3/4.
RoPS Rovaniemi bafflingly managed to throw away numerous leads in their opening Liiga Cup game against a shattered JJK Jyvaskyla side, somehow eventually losing 5-6. Ironically, this scoreline represents RoPS Rovaniemi perfectly as their attack is phenomenal and their defending is terrifying. RoPS don’t play tactical games; they just attack, and because they have some quick and strong African (mostly Zambian) players, they tend to do very well in a relatively slow league. However, they’re at sea defensively and that should show today, even against a VPS Vaasa side who decided that removing half of their first team during the break would be a good move. VPS showed good spirit against Tampere United to draw 2-2 and if they can score two against Tampere then they can score at least two here. For me, this game has goals written all over it, especially as RoPS aren’t 100% ready for this game in terms of competitive match practice so over 2.5 goals at 3/4 looks a gift here.
Team news – RoPS Rovaniemi miss Chileshe Chibwe for this game.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 3/4.
AS Roma vs Shakhtar Donetsk – both sides to score at 5/6.
I’m a fan (of sorts!) of AS Roma and have been for about fifteen years although I’m not entirely sure how that started so I do have a lot of respect for this side for varying reasons (i.e. the loyalty of its players, the tenacity of the team). However, I cannot sit idly by whilst bookies continue to overestimate this side. They’ve got a truly great midfield and love to pass the ball around but they’re susceptible in defence at the best of times and they’re not prolific enough to win games when they concede goals, hence them finding life very tough so far this season in the UEFA Champions League. AS Roma are one of the few sides remaining in this tournament to have conceded in every UEFA Champions League game in this campaign and when you consider that their group contained Bayern Munich, Basel, and CFR Cluj, you can see why I don’t trust the Italian hosts whatsoever. Indeed, AS Roma’s 2-1 win at home to CFR Cluj was fortunate, their 3-2 win at home to Bayern Munich showed tremendous grit but again was fortunate, and AS Roma actually lost 1-3 at home to Basel. AS Roma will score goals due to their midfield creativity and experience but they’re not a great side anymore, especially in front of goal, and especially if Mirko Vucinic is absent, which he may well be today, along with fellow striker Marco Borriello, leaving the reliance with talented Menez.
Visitors Shakhtar Donetsk have pumped so much money into their club that they’re on the verge of being a super-power themselves. Impressively, they’ve allowed Romanian manager Mircrea Lucrescu to stay in charge of the club ever since Rinat Akhmedov started chucking money at the club so this side is built around the Romanian and thus they play for him, which tends to work well. Much like their hosts, Shakhtar’s strength is largely in their creative and able midfield, although long-term absentee Fernandinho is sorely missed in the team. The likes of Jadson and William are keen to step up to the plate, however, and Jadson in particular has impressed me in the last few years so Shakhtar do have capable players here. They’ve looked quite poor in friendlies, worryingly, but Shakhtar still have the creativity to score against a tempremental AS Roma defence tonight. The re-signing of centre-back Dmytro Chygrynskiy was an inspired move as it’s settled their defence again and his presence makes me think that Shakhtar Donetsk actually have a good chance of winning this game – them winning it with draw no bet is a very tempting bet indeed.
However, for me, the best call remains both sides to score. Shakhtar Donetsk have scored in every group game thus far and although they’ve kept four clean sheets in the tournament, they’ve conceded on the two occasions that they’ve met a good side (their two games against Arsenal) so AS Roma can score here. AS Roma have scored and conceded in five out of their six games so I have no doubts about them joining the party here – I just hope that visitors Shakhtar Donetsk aren’t too rusty for the bet to come in!
Team news – AS Roma miss Rosi, Adriano, and Taddei whilst having doubts over Julio Sergio, Vucinic, and Borriello whereas Shakhtar Donetsk miss Fernandinho and Kucher.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 5/6.
Fiorentina vs Internazionale – over 2.5 goals at evens.
I watched Palermo vs Fiorentina at weekend and was really rather impressed by Fiorentina. True, Palermo made it easy for them by committing some inexplicable crimes in defence that I hope never to see again i.e. allowing a corner to land in their six-yard box at the feet of an unmarked defender, who had time to control the ball and score. Fiorentina attacked well, however; their confidence looks high and they’re playing some good football so they need to be taken seriously here, especially after some good January transfer acquisitions i.e. Behrami. Fiorentina are still missing key players, as they have been for a long time now, but there’s a steely resolve about them that I quite like at the moment so I’ll give them a shout here, especially as current boss Sinisa Mihailjovic was an Internazionale legend so he’ll want to do well here.
Visitors Internazionale enter this game on the back of an unconvincing display in Turin against Juventus, strangely losing the game 1-0. Since then, Cameroonian striker Eto’o has come under fire for a below-par display, which I think is a bit harsh as he’s done well for them this season although I’m not a fan of him, to be honest. Internazionale will be reeling from that result and need to get back in the saddle quickly so I think they’ll attack Fiorentina today. The trouble is that Lucio, Samuel, and Chivu are all missing from defence and given that Leonardo’s tactics don’t include defending at any given time, I can’t see Internazionale keeping a clean sheet for the remainder of time, especially with such important defenders absent.
Both sides like to attack and score goals and I think in-form Fiorentina are facing Internazionale at a decent time so they’ll be enthused here. Internazionale are in for a rough ride but they’re capable of scoring goals here due to their superior attacking ability, especially with new signing Pazzini in good form. For me, over 2.5 goals at evens looks a good price today.
Team news – Fiorentina miss Jovetic, Frey, Kroldrup, and Vargas whereas Internazionale miss Lucio, Chivu, and Samuel.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Jaguares
Recommended bets:
Jaguares and Internacional at 2/1.
Over 2.5 goals in JJK Jyvaskyla vs KuPS Kuopio and VPS Vaasa vs RoPS Rovaniemi at 3/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
UEFA Champions League:
AS Roma vs Shakhtar Donetsk (4) 1-2
Arsenal vs Barcelona (6) over 2.5 goals
Copa Libertadores:
Union Espanola vs Universidad Catolica (4) 1-2, draw no bet
Emelec Guayaquil vs Internacional (6) 0-1
Cruzeiro vs Estudiantes De La Plata (5) both sides to score
Jaguares vs Jorge Wilstermann (9) -1.5 handicap
Once Caldas Manizales vs Universidad San Martin (7) 2-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Germinal Beerschot vs AA Gent (6) under 2.5 goals
Westerlo vs Lokeren (6) both sides to score
Colombian Primera A:
Deportivo Pereira vs La Equidad Bogota (5) 1-1
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Espoli Cayambe vs LDU Loja (4) 1-1
El Nacional Quito vs Barcelona Guayaquil (6) 0-0
Manta vs Imbabura (5) 1-0
Deportivo Cuenca vs Deportivo Quito (6) both sides to score
English Championship:
Scunthorpe United vs Nottingham Forest (6)
English FA Cup:
Wigan Athletic vs Bolton Wanderers (6) 1-1
Finnish Liiga Cup:
JJK Jyvaskyla vs KuPS Kuopio (6) over 2.5 goals
VPS Vaasa vs RoPS Rovaniemi (6) over 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga:
Hamburger SV vs St.Pauli (6) 2-1
Italian Serie A:
Sampdoria vs Genoa (6) 0-0, at least one red card in this game
Fiorentina vs Internazionale (4) over 2.5 goals, draw no bet
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
General Caballero vs Independiente (5) 1-0
Sol de America vs Olimpia Asuncion (6) 1-2
Sportivo Luqueno vs 3 de Febrero (5) 1-1
Scottish Premier League:
Dundee United vs Hamilton Academicals (7) 2-0
Singaporean S-League:
Albirex Niigata vs Tampines Rovers (6) over 2.5 goals
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Deportivo Petare vs Zamora (7) 1-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!