Faroe Islands vs Northern Ireland
FreeUsual warning, guys – Internationals are a minefield, especially so today. Bet cautiously, if at all – some very dicey games today!
My featured game today is the European Championship Qualifier between the Faroe Islands and Northern Ireland in Toftir. Minnows Faroe Islands are having their usual campaign by struggling along and Northern Ireland are doing their utmost to upset the bigger sides but with a generally similar level of success to that of their hosts today.
For me, the odds for this game favour the away side far too much with the above in mind. Northern Ireland do have some good players, admittedly, and with the majority of them playing their football in England, you have to say that the advantage is with them. However, are they really good enough to earn 3/10 on the away win? Not in my eyes. They performed stoutly against Italy last week to earn a credible draw but without Healy firing on all cylinders, they lack an awful lot in front of goal. The only time that Northern Ireland have scored more than once in a game away from home in their last seventeen attempts was in a 3-0 win at San Marino and with all due respect to the San Marinese, Faroe Islands are simply better than they are. Until a shock 1-0 win at Slovenia last match, Northern Ireland hadn’t even scored for five consecutive away games in trips to face Montenegro, Chile, Turkey, Albania, and Czech Republic respectively. I have little problem with Northern Ireland’s defence – it’s more than good enough to keep the majority of European sides to out a respectable level. However, they really struggle in attack and I don’t see that changing today. Faroe Islands are a physical side with some ability i.e. Christian Holst is a hard-working striker, Simun Samuelson is a pacey winger with some dribbling skills, ex-Manchester City playmaker Christian Mouritsen etc. so they’re more than capable of troubling Northern Ireland here. Look at their last few home games – they played well enough against Serbia to merit a better result than the flattering 0-3 scoreline (which was started by a blatant handball goal!), they’ve beaten a well-organised Lithuania side 2-1, they battled valiantly and could have got a draw in a 0-1 defeat against France, and have even held Austria to a 1-1 draw. Faroese football is not as bad as it once was and although I’m really not saying that they’re going to go and win this competition, I think they look very solid under Irish manager Brian Kerr and they’re not easy to play against.
Northern Ireland won’t like this game – Faroe Islands won’t attack them with any great adventure; they’ll play it cautiously, just as Northern Ireland do away from home. Therefore, I expect a very tactical game with few chances and few goals here as the Faroe Islands would take a draw and Northern Ireland would prefer a sneaky away win but would probably also take the draw, in all honesty. Faroe Islands might not be a great goalscoring nation but to describe the away trip here as “easy” would be very misleading. I think the Faroes can do enough today to keep the scoreline respectable and that’s if they don’t cause an upset but either way, giving them a +1.5 goal head start at home where they always play well against a side that doesn’t score goals on the road at 3/4 looks too good to be ignored today.
Squads:
Faroe Islands:
Goalkeepers – Nielsen, Mikkelsen, Thomsen
Defenders – Tor Naes, Fredriksberg, Baldvinsson, Davidsen, a Bo, Gregersen, Rubeksen
Midfielders – Benjaminsen, Lokin, Udsen, Hansen, Elttor, Petersen, Samuelsen, Mouritsen
Attackers – Holst, Edmundsson, Hansen
Northern Ireland:
Goalkeepers – Blayney, Taylor, Tuffey
Defenders – Baird, Cathcart, Craigan, Hughes, McAuley, Evans
Midfielders – Brunt, Clingan, McGinn, McCann, Evans, Gorman, Davis
Attackers – Healy, Feeney, Lafferty, Little, Patterson
Verdict: Faroe Islands to win with +1.5 goal handicap at 3/4.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Armenia vs Andorra – under 2.5 goals at 17/10.
This is a much bolder call than it looks because I really rate this potent Armenia side. However, I’m taking a gamble here for one reason; Andorra’s growing defence. Armenia have done very well both at home and away of late, scoring freely and growing in confidence each game. However, the problem with their opponents has been that all of them attacked Armenia with the exception of the Republic of Ireland (barring counter-attacks, obviously!) and what happened? Armenia lost 0-1. My theory here is that Armenia counter-attack very well and have some very good players but when it comes to breaking sides down, they’re going to struggle. Andorra are nothing but a reliable defensive unit nowadays and I think they’re going to do what few other sides have had to do here in recent times by purely going to defend. Armenia have rarely encountered such tactics and I don’t think they’ll have it all their own way as a result. I can see Andorra keeping the scoreline respectable here although I do expect them to lose as Armenia really are that much better nowadays. However, the odds are far too long on under 2.5 goals, in my opinion – I think there’s been an overreaction to Armenia’s performances of late – so my call is under 2.5 goals in this game.
Squads:
Armenia:
Goalkeepers – Berezovski, Kasparov, Ghazaryan
Defenders – Hovsepyan, Arzumanyan, Arakelyan, Mkoyan, Hambardzumyan, Edigaryan, Yuspashyan, Minasyan
Midfielders – Malakyan, Manoyan, Edigaryan, Mkrtchyan, Mkhitaryan, Pachajyan
Attackers – Manucharyan, Ghazaryan, Pizzelli, Goharyan, Movsisyan
Andorra:
Are you serious? Like you’d know any of them! Besides, I can’t find their squad, sadly!
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 17/10.
Belarus vs Albania – under 1.5 goals at 33/20.
This is a very bold call but it’s one I quite like. Why? Well, both sides are very similar, really. Belarus play good possession football but don’t score enough goals whilst defending well and Albania defend very well indeed whilst possessing some good players too. Belarus can exploit the likes of France because France attack them but what happened last match when they tried to break down Luxembourg away? They drew 0-0. What happened when they had to host Romania of late and break them down? They failed and were frankly outplayed. Belarus much prefer the underdog role and frankly tend to fail as favourites. Albania are not the kind of side to take lightly, either – they’re a very stout defensive unit and always play with proper national pride, something I don’t see very often as an Englishman so I admire them. They don’t offer a terrific goal threat and rarely travel well but this is their kind of game – gritty, hard-fought, low-scoring, tenacious etc. etc. I don’t think the odds are set correctly for this game, in all honesty – I think we’ll see a really low-scoring game here. I wanted to go under 2.5 goals but the bookies have regrettably priced that correctly. However, I think they’ve priced under 1.5 goals a little bit too long so that’s my call for this game today, particularly as one of Belarus’ main attackers Kornilenko misses this game through suspension. That said, Albania are regrettably missing three key players – Curri in defence, Cana in midfield, and Bogdani in attack so approach with caution here.
Squads:
Belarus:
Goalkeepers – Zhevnov, Vyeramko, Amelchanko
Defenders – Shitov, Yurevich, Omelyanchuk, Bardachov, Zhevnerov, Martynovich, Molosh, Sasnowski
Midfielders – A.Hleb, Putsila, Kalachev, Kulchiy, Tigorev, Kislyak, Krivets
Attackers – V.Hleb, Rodionov, Kornilenko
Albania:
Goalkeepers – Beqaj, Hidi, Ujkani
Defenders – Teli, Agolli, Vrapi, Curri, Dallku, Vangjeli, Lila
Midfielders – Cana, Bulku, Hyka, Lika, Muzaka, Vila, Skela, Duro
Attackers – Salihi, Bakaj, Bogdani, Kapllani, Januzi
Verdict: Under 1.5 goals at 33/20.
Bahrain vs Uzbekistan – home win at evens.
The home win looks too generous here. I’m not a massive advocate of Bahrain’s defensive approach to games but let’s face it – they’re one hell of a tough side to play on their own turf. Only Iran have won here in Bahrain’s last fifteen home games with Bahrain with Bahrain winning eleven of those games. During that run, they’ve hosted Saudi Arabia, Japan, South Korea, Togo, Iran (again!), and today’s opponents Uzbekistan in a game which Bahrain won 1-0. Sides find it very hard to score here and Bahrain tend to make the most of their home advantage so I quite fancy them here. It’s bizarre because I actually really rate Uzbekistan rather highly but they simply haven’t been playing well for a while now. They’ve lost four out of their last five games and three of those have been without scoring. They were thumped 4-0 by Saudi Arabia last week, 3-1 by Armenia, 1-0 by Albania, and even lost 1-0 at home to United Arab Emirates. The only good result on that run was a 3-3 draw at Estonia although it really should be noted that Estonia fielded a second-string for that game. Uzbekistan faced Bahrain twice in 2009’s World Cup Qualifiers and lost 1-0 both at home and away against a side they simply can’t break down. Uzbekistan’s forté has never been scoring goals but to not score goals at all is fatal as their defence may be good but it’s not great. The reliance on experienced striker Shatskikh is immense as players like Geynrikh haven’t developed as expected so when he inevitably hangs up his boots, Uzbekistan really have a problem. I think they’ve got that problem now, to be fair, and I think Bahrain is another name on the long list of away games for Uzbekistan that they’re going to regret facing. The hosts aren’t great but they’re good enough at home to win this one and the odds are decent enough to try your hand at.
Verdict: Bahrain to win at evens.
Ecuador vs Poland – Ecuador to win at 3/2.
First of all, this game is played in Montreal, Canada, so there’s no home advantage here.
However, Ecuador are priced too generously for me. They’re missing Valencia and Caicedo, admittedly, but this side is still very good. It’s worth pointing out that Quiroz, Ayovi, Rojas, Guagua, Reasco, and Elizaga will not participate in this game although only Guagua bothers me from that particular absentee listing. They play good and well-organised football and although it’s going to be interesting to see how they fare without their fabled home advantage. Nonetheless, they’re facing a Poland side that are arguably at their weakest for many years. They played well against USA in a 2-2 draw, admittedly, but they’re still nowhere near their best. Their two goalscorers from the game against USA, Adam Matuszczyk and Jakub Blaszczykowski, have both returned to Europe due to club committments. Jakub (far easier than writing his surname) was immense against USA with a constant threat being posed down the USA left at all times as a result. Without him, it’ll be interesting to see if they revert to their usual failing long ball tactics to a Robert Lewandowski who is frankly not playing well internationally. Poland are also missing important defenders Wojtkowiak and Boenisch, which is even more hefty if you consider that their two goals conceded against USA last match both came from defensive errors. I think we’ll see Poland revert to their usual selves in this game and if they do, they really should lose this game against a side that has no problem passing the ball and making things happen. South American football is the polar opposite to Poland’s atypically tactical setup and I think they’ll get “found out” today by a good Ecuador side, particularly with such a heavy list of absentees for Poland. With the above in mind, taking an Ecuador win at 3/2 intrigues me a lot tonight although caution must be emphasised – both sides are missing players, after all!
Squads:
Ecuador:
Goalkeepers – Banguera, Bone, Elizaga
Defenders – Mina, Reasco, Guagua, Checa, Campos, Caicedo, Bagui
Midfielders – Ayovi, Arroyo, Noboa, Minda, Paredes, Quiroz, Saritama
Attackers – Ayovi, Benitez, Guerron, Rojas, Suarez
Poland:
Goalkeepers – Boruc, Tyton, Sandomierski
Defenders – Glik, Wojtkowiak, Mierzejewski, Zewlakow, Piszczek, Pietrasiak
Midfielders – Murwaski, Matuszczyk, Obraniak, Blaszczykowski, Majewski, Salamon, Mierzejewski, Bonin
Attackers – Niedzielan, Smolarek, Lewandowski, Grosicki, Jelen
Verdict: Ecuador to win at 3/2.
Accumulator fodder:
Armenia, Germany, Czech Republic, Moldova, Netherlands, France, Spain, Uruguay, Mexico.
Recommended bets:
I don’t like any multiples today, sorry guys!
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
European Championship Qualifiers:
Azerbaijan vs Turkey (5) under 2.5 goals
Faroe Islands vs Northern Ireland (5) 1-2
Armenia vs Andorra (8) under 2.5 goals
Finland vs Hungary (6) 1-1
Kazakhstan vs Germany (8) -1.5 handicap
Latvia vs Georgia (6) 1-1
Belarus vs Albania (7) under 1.5 goals
Liechtenstein vs Czech Republic (8) 0-2
Denmark vs Cyprus (6) 2-1
San Marino vs Moldova (8) 0-2
Netherlands vs Sweden (8) 2-1
Estonia vs Slovenia (6) 1-2
Slovakia vs Republic of Ireland (5) 1-0
Republic of Macedonia vs Russia (5) 1-2
Switzerland vs Wales (7) 1-0
Belgium vs Austria (6) over 2.5 goals
Greece vs Israel (4) 1-1
Italy vs Serbia (7) 1-1
Scotland vs Spain (8) over 2.5 goals
France vs Luxembourg (8) -1.5 handicap
England vs Montenegro (7) 2-1
Iceland vs Portugal (6) over 2.5 goals
International Friendlies:
New Zealand vs Paraguay (6) under 2.5 goals
China vs Uruguay (8) over 2.5 goals
Bahrain vs Uzbekistan (7) 2-0
South Korea vs Japan (4) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
United Arab Emirates vs Angola (5) 1-0
Qatar vs Iraq (6) under 2.5 goals
Kuwait vs Vietnam (7) 2-0
Bulgaria vs Saudi Arabia (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Oman vs Chile (6) 1-2
Croatia vs Norway (7) 1-0
Ecuador vs Poland (7) 1-0 (played in Canada)
Honduras vs Guatemala (7) 2-0
USA vs Colombia (5) 1-1
Mexico vs Venezuela (8) 2-0
Costa Rica vs El Salvador (6) 2-1
Panama vs Peru (5) 1-1
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifiers:
Romania vs England (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Croatia vs Spain (5) over 2.5 goals
Belarus vs Italy (6) 1-1
Greece vs Czech Republic (5) 1-1
Ukraine vs Netherlands (6) 1-1
Copa Sudamericana:
Union San Felipe vs Liga de Quito (5) under 2.5 goals
Deportes Tolima vs Banfield (5) under 2.5 goals
Baltic League:
Sillamae Kalev vs FK Jurmala (6) 2-1
Singaporean S-League:
Albirex Niigata vs Young Lions (5) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!