FC Copenhagen vs Chelsea
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Today’s secondary featured game is the UEFA Champions League Quarter-Final game in Denmark between FC Copenhagen and Chelsea. These two giants of their respective countries lock horns at an interesting time with FC Copenhagen having not played a competitive game for a long time and Chelsea having failed to consistently play as well as they can for a long time too.
However, one thing that is for sure here is that FC Copenhagen are currently very strong. They’ve got their best squad in years and to underestimate this side is beyond foolish, in my opinion. FC Copenhagen haven’t lost in their last eight Champions League home games and the few games that they have lost away from home have all been very narrow defeats. Indeed, FC Copenhagen only lost 2-0 at Nou Camp against Barcelona and held Barcelona to a 1-1 draw at home earlier this season so again, don’t underestimate the Danes here. Manchester United and Celtic have both underestimated FC Copenhagen in the past and both have lost at Parken. Russian side Rubin Kazan and Belarusian heavyweights BATE Borisov have both lost here in the last year or two and although those two names may not mean a lot to some of you, I can assure you that both sides are very hard to face and FC Copenhagen have done very well against both of them, both in their displays and their efficiency in front of goal. Although friendlies don’t mean an awful lot, FC Copenhagen have looked impressive during theirs, laying waste to Scandinavian rivals Rosenborg BK in a 5-0 win, not to mention beating Swedish side Elfsborg Boras 2-0 and Norwegian side Valerenga Oslo 5-1. FC Copenhagen are a very strong unit at the moment and although they miss Icelandic rock Ottesen in defence, I’m going to overlook his absence here as he’s had various injury problems already this season and they’ve coped well enough without him.
Visitors Chelsea are priced at a scary 3/4 to win this game and I’m not entirely sure why. Their names command a lot of respect due to their outstanding experience and ability – I agree entirely. However, they’ve won just five out of their last sixteen away games in the UEFA Champions League and to me, that doesn’t merit odds of 3/4. It looks to me like these odds were created on name alone because Chelsea haven’t been convincing for a few months now and I think they’ll struggle at a vociferous Parken tonight. Chelsea enter this game after a tiring 120-minute fiasco against Everton in the FA Cup at weekend, eventually losing on penalties, which could lessen this side’s morale even moreso. That makes it three games without a win and given that they’ve only scored in one of those three games, I have my concerns over them winning this one tonight. The likes of Torres, Anelka, and Drogba are more than good enough to score in this game but will they win it? I don’t think so. I actually think there’s more value in laying Chelsea at evens than I think there is in backing Chelsea to win but to be honest, I’m going to avoid that market as either side winning this game wouldn’t surprise me.
Amusingly, there was a “famous last words” quote by under-pressure Italian boss Carlo Ancelotti. He said “Chelsea won’t go out against FC Copenhagen” – really, Carlo? I wouldn’t be so sure, unless the rumours about the Abramovich fix are true. Or I wonder if he’s been contacted about the AS Roma job and he’s trying to get himself fired? Anyway, enough shit stirring – there’s the media who get paid for that! I do think it’s a very bold statement from Ancelotti when he seems to know little about this Copenhagen side or he’d be a lot more cautious with his words. Maybe it’s just me, but if I played for Copenhagen and saw that then I’d be extra motivated to do well here. One person who doesn’t need any extra motivation is Copenhagen winger Jesper Gronkjaer, who is undoubtedly determined to prove his worth against his former club. Cesar Santin and Dame N’Doye have been immense in attack for the Danes so far this season and Chelsea’ suspect and inconsistent defence may struggle against them tonight.
I expect a much closer game than the bookies do here but as we all know with the Champions League, a touch of class from the superior of the two sides and the game can be over – that’s the risk. However, for me, there’s tremendous value in both sides scoring in this game – Copenhagen have scored in ten out of their last eleven home games in the UEFA Champions League and Chelsea have some very classy attackers so both sides scoring at evens looks very generous to me.
Team news – FC Copenhagen miss Ottesen and Absalonsen whereas Chelsea miss Luiz, Alex, Zhirkov, and Benayoun.
Verdict: Both sides to score at evens.
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Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
CSKA Moscow vs PAOK Salonika – home win with -1.5 handicap at evens.
The temperature in Khimki for this game is expected to be about -16 so PAOK are going to find this a very difficult game from that perspective alone.
From a class perspective, PAOK are going to find it even harder. Salonika sides often find defending a much easier task than scoring but the problem is that they have to attack CSKA here or they’re out. PAOK lost the first leg in Greece 0-1, which is relatively unheard of as the Greek side are strong at home. However, CSKA had that extra class where it mattered and even though they hadn’t played a competitive game for months, CSKA still won the game convincingly. CSKA are a good side nowadays and are frankly too good for the UEFA Europa League whilst not really being good enough for the UEFA Champions League so it’s a bit of a tricky scenario. They love this competition though – they won it back when it was the UEFA Cup a few years ago and they’ve actually won nine conscutive home games in the UEFA Europa League so their class advantage is very apparent. CSKA have played four Europa League games at home this season and have won them all convincingly, beating the -1.5 goal handicap in each game. CSKA’s midfield and defence are strong and although their attackers do lack in experience, they don’t lack in energy nor ability so Necid and Doumbia should be able to make it count here today.
PAOK haven’t lost by the -1.5 goal handicap away from home in Europe this season so exercise some caution here. However, if they have any intention of progressing here then they have to attack and if they do that then they lose their defensive stability and I’d fancy CSKA to beat the handicap in that instance. I expect a slow first half with little action but CSKA should be able to finish the Greeks off in the second-half, although I am wary of the PAOK defensive strength! The odds on the -1.5 goal handicap for CSKA are good enough to take a chance on with the above in mind, however.
Team news – PAOK Salonika miss Chalkias, Fotakis, Georgiou, and Stafyllidis whilst having doubts over Vitolo, Vangelis, and Filomeno.
Verdict: CSKA Moscow to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at evens.
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Universidad San Martin vs San Luis – home win at 5/6.
Universidad San Martin have prioritised the Copa Libertadores already this season, as was evident with their string of kids that overcame Universidad Cesar Vallejo in their last match a few days ago. San Martin rested the majority of their first team for this game and they’ve already demonstrated their ability by utterly destroying a very good Once Caldas Manizales side 0-3 away from home, which was an immaculate result that I didn’t expect at all.
Momentum is high at what I can only describe as the best side in Peru over the past few years and it’s wise to be wary of them. Ex-Middlesbrough midfielder Marinelli supporting compatriots Arriola and Alemanno in attack looks a potent combination and that makes them very dangerous, in my view. They lost Vitti to Universitario Lima in the transfer window but they’re still a very strong side and should do well here.
Contrary to popular belief, Lima does not have altitude advantage for the hosts as it’s virtually on the Pacific Ocean. However, only Gremio have won here in San Martin’s last seven continental home games with the hosts winning five times so I wouldn’t underestimate them. Sometimes it can be the case that lower altitude affects sides like San Luis in particular as they’re used to playing at high altitude so there is an advantage for San Martin here, especially as they’ll want it more.
Mexican sides – well, you know my thoughts on them in the Copa Libertadores – they just don’t give a shit. It takes a special kind of side to lose at home to Libertad Asuncion but they managed it. Their manager says they’ll go for it and that they’ll want it but I have my doubts. I don’t think they care and I don’t see the altitude difference helping here.
For me, there’s value in the home win at 5/6.
Verdict: Universidad San Martin to win at 5/6.
Queens Park Rangers vs Ipswich Town – both sides to score at 10/11.
A lot of people rate QPR highly and as they’re top of the table, I can understand that. However, the English leagues work a little differently to most leagues in the sense that pretty much anyone can beat anyone, in my view. That’s why I rarely bet in English football – there’s generally very little value. The sides that get promoted from this division are those who are the most fortunate with injuries and whose players turn up more than others. Quality-wise, there’s not much difference here, hence the predicament.
If we bear the above in mind, the over 2.5 goals call looks good here. QPR’s talisman is Taarabt in midfield. If he plays well, they win; if he doesn’t, they draw or lose. However, QPR have looked a bit stretched lately, hence conceding in three out of their last four home games and stuttering to a draw last match at relegation battlers Preston North End so their vulnerability is apparent. Similarly, Ipswich’s seeming immortality is growing stronger with no defeats in five games and having scored for seven consecutive Championship games, including a 0-6 win at Doncaster Rovers in their last away game. Ipswich are riding the crest of a wave currently and although I think QPR just about edge it quality-wise, I still think that this will be a very close game indeed.
For me, there’s value in both sides scoring in this game at 10/11.
Team news – Queens Park Rangers miss Smith and Ephraim whereas Ipswich Town miss Norris.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 10/11.
Bournemouth vs Sheffield Wednesday – over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Simply put, Sheffield Wednesday can’t defend. They’ve shipped fifteen goals in five games and have lost four of them because of it. Bournemouth aren’t a particularly adventurous side but they’re a good unit and they do score goals when given the opportunity, which should be quite frequent in a game against Sheffield Wednesday. However, Sheffield Wednesday aren’t as bad in attack as their form portrays them to be so I wouldn’t rule out them scoring here. Either way, with Sheffield Wednesday’s last ten games in all competitions having gone over 2.5 goals, including a tiring 3-0 defeat at Birmingham City at weekend in the FA Cup, it’s hard to see this one being any different today unless Bournemouth pull a 1-1 draw out of the bag like they have done for their last two home games in a row. However, Wednesday’s defending is so poor at the moment that the odds on over 2.5 goals look a gift here to me.
Team news – Bournemouth miss Williamson whereas Sheffield Wednesday miss Otsemobor and Buxton.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Accumulator fodder:
CSKA Moscow, Cruzeiro, Emelec Guayaquil, Norwich City, Aberdeen, Tampines Rovers.
Recommended bets:
Cruzeiro, Emelec Guayaquil, and Universidad San Martin at 3/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
UEFA Champions League:
Olympique Lyonnais vs Real Madrid (7) under 2.5 goals
FC Copenhagen vs Chelsea (5) 1-1
UEFA Europa League:
CSKA Moscow vs PAOK Salonika (8) -1.5 handicap
Copa Libertadores:
Cruzeiro vs Guarani Asuncion (9) -1.5 handicap
Universidad San Martin vs San Luis (6) 2-1
Emelec Guayaquil vs Jorge Wilstermann (8) -1.5 handicap
Once Caldas Manizales vs Libertad Asuncion (6) 2-1
English Premier League:
Blackpool vs Tottenham Hotspur (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
English Championship:
Coventry City vs Swansea City (5) under 2.5 goals
Scunthorpe United vs Sheffield United (6) under 2.5 goals
Nottingham Forest vs Preston North End (6) both sides to score
Derby County vs Hull City (6) draw no bet
Norwich City vs Doncaster Rovers (8) over 2.5 goals
Portsmouth vs Crystal Palace (5)
Watford vs Bristol City (4)
Leeds United vs Barnsley (6)
Cardiff City vs Leicester City (6) under 2.5 goals
Reading vs Millwall (6)
Queens Park Rangers vs Ipswich Town (5) both sides to score
English League One:
Hartlepool United vs Southampton (6)
Dagenham & Redbridge vs Huddersfield Town (5)
Milton Keynes Dons vs Oldham Athletic (6)
Peterborough United vs Colchester United (7) over 2.5 goals
Brentford vs Tranmere Rovers (6)
Carlisle United vs Exeter City (4) draw no bet
Bournemouth vs Sheffield Wednesday (6)
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Plymouth Argyle (6)
English League Two:
Port Vale vs Stevenage (7) under 2.5 goals
Accrington Stanley vs Crewe Alexandra (5)
Bradford City vs Chesterfield (5) both sides to score
Macclesfield Town vs Morecambe (6)
Southend United vs Barnet (7) over 2.5 goals
Hereford United vs Northampton Town (6) both sides to score
Wycombe Wanderers vs Burton Albion (6)
Cheltenham Town vs Torquay United (5) draw no bet
Italian Serie B:
Pescara vs Empoli (6) under 2.5 goals
Scottish Premier League:
St.Johnstone vs Dundee United (6) 0-1
Aberdeen vs Hamilton Academicals (8) 2-0
Singaporean S-League:
Tampines Rovers vs Hougang United (8) 2-0
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Rudar Velenje (6) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!