FC Honka Espoo vs TPS Turku

Hosts Haka Valkeakoski are a decent side but over-achieved last season, in my opinion. They managed to frustrate a great number of their opponents last season but eventually crumbled under the pressure and showed their true colours towards the end of the season by finishing sixth despite leading the Veikkausliiga for a good portion of the season. Haka were more unconvincing at home than they were on the road last season, in my opinion. Indeed, they only managed to notch up five wins in thirteen home games, which isn’t really good enough. Haka have lost midfielder Mika Makitalo to Inter Turku and defender Petri Viljanen to PoPa Pori over the break so their squad becomes slightly more stretched. Expectation will have increased for the Valkeakoski outfit and I don’t think they can cope with it as they proved by losing two competitions at the end of last season. Haka crashed out of the Liiga Cup last year in the group stages; I wouldn’t be overly surprised to see them do that again.

Visitors JJK Jyvaskyla just barely managed to stay in the Veikkausliiga last season by beating KPV Kokkola of the Ykkonen in a two-legged relegation/promotion play-off, meaning that my beloved RoPS Rovaniemi were relegated – boo!! However, JJK probably just about earned it more over the season with some more dogged displays, particularly towards the end of the season. JJK’s problems were largely composed from the fact that they struggled with the concept of “defence” i.e. they had no idea what it meant. However, they’ll have learned at least partially from last season and will be refreshed and ready to take on a new season in a vain attempt to survive. JJK hold a bizarre record over head-to-heads with Haka as today’s hosts failed to beat them in either Veikkausliiga encounter last season with JJK actually winning here 4-2 and drawing 0-0 at home. Haka did manage to beat JJK 2-1 in the Suomen Cup at the end of last season but generally tend to struggle with the tenacious relegation-battlers.

Although I do think that a partially depleted Haka Valkeakoski side are capable of winning this game comfortably, I think Haka will crumble on their first game back with the additional pressure as they proved that they’re all too capable of doing at the end of last season. Haka don’t appear to take this competition very seriously with their most advanced finish over the past four years being the quarter-finals. JJK know they don’t have a chance of winning the Liiga Cup but they’re feisty; they have to start as they mean to go on. A side like this can only be beaten when their effort is matched and I don’t think it will be so early in the season. Don’t get me wrong, this is a risky call but I think there’s value in it if you keep your punts low!

Verdict: Lay Haka Valkeakoski at 5/6.

Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Union Berlin – home win at 10/11.

Now these odds confuse me! Hosts Fortuna Dusseldorf haven’t won either of their last two games – fact. I can accept that. However, both games were away from home, which is where Dusseldorf struggle the most. Their home record is second to none in the Bundesliga 2 with seven wins and two draws in nine home games. They average scoring nearly two goals per home game and are the joint-lowest conceding home side in the division along with Arminia Bielefeld with both sides averaging just over a goal conceded for every two home games played. Dusseldorf have won their last five home games consecutively and I fail to see why they can’t do the same today.

Visitors Union Berlin had a great start to their campaign but have fallen flat with the toils of promotion finally beginning to take their toll on the newbies. Union Berlin have now slipped to seventh in the Bundesliga 2 table and although they’re unbeaten in four games, it’s worth noting that they have only won once on that run. Union Berlin have lost three out of eight away games this season and have only won twice along the way. They’re a capable side and enjoy scoring goals but concede far too many and it’s that immaturity that keeps Union Berlin from being a serious promotion contender, in my opinion. Perhaps they’ll be able to build on their foundations next season but I simply can’t see them being able to deal with a real promotion contender today.

Verdict: Fortuna Dusseldorf to win at 10/11.

Empoli vs Torino – home win at 7/5.

Empoli are without a win in four games but only one of those games were at home. Is that relevant, I hear you asking? Yes, it is. Why? Well, Empoli only play well at home. A valiant display from Sassuolo saw them claim a point here, only the second side in Serie B to actually do so this season. Empoli’s home record remains formidable, however, with eight wins and two draws in ten games in Serie B this season. Empoli average scoring over two goals per home game in Serie B and are one of the lowest conceders on their own turf too. Although I have a niggling concern about Empoli’s lack of momentum, you’d be a complete fool to write off Empoli when playing at home.

Visitors Torino may have won their last game in convincing fashion at home to Grosseto but that doesn’t mask the mass problems that they have currently. The win against Grosseto was their only win in their past five games, losing three of those games. The fact that Torino scored just once in those four games should speak volumes about why they’re having such issues and I can’t see one result having changed their problems drastically, although it will have boosted them mentally, of course. Torino have been quite good on the road this year with four wins, three draws, and four defeats in eleven away games. However, the problems that they’re having should be evident as they travel to Empoli today as the hosts will give them a stern attacking and defensive test, with or without momentum.

Although this game has the potential to be a draw with both sides being capable of playing good football, you have to feel that the value is with Empoli to overcome and unconvincing, unreliable, and inconsistent Torino tonight.

Verdict: Empoli to win at  7/5.

Oss vs Volendam – away win at 5/6.

Hosts Oss are lingering near the foot of the Eerste Divisie for one reason; they’re shit. I hate to be so blunt because I’m well aware that all of their players are better than me, <enter stereotypical argument> etc. but just take a look at their record before berating me. They’ve lost thirteen out of twenty-two games this season and have only won four times. They average conceding over two goals per game and haven’t won in their past nine games, losing seven times and drawing twice. Oss have lost four out of their last five home games, including a particularly embarassing defeat at home by fellow relegation-battlers Emmen, so I think calling Oss “shit” is perfectly justified. Oss have won just three times in eleven home games in the Eerste Divisie this year, losing six times along the way. Oss, frankly, are cannon fodder for the majority of this division and I do not class Volendam as part of the minority in this instance.

Visitors Volendam have found life in the Eerste Divisie difficult following relegation from the Eredivisie but are starting to find their feet now with three consecutive wins. Their away record isn’t the most convincing I’ve ever seen with three wins, three draws, and four defeats. However, they’re the joint-second highest scoring side in the divsion along with Helmond Sport with both sides trailing second-place Cambuur Leeuwarden by seven goals. Volendam’s problem lies in their innate and irritating ability to concede masses of goals with only four sides in the Eerste Divisie having conceded more than they have this year. However, Volendam are at least a relatively competent side and have smashed home a highly convincing fifteen goals over their past three games, which gives them a superb average of five goals scored per game. They’ve conceded four goals along the way but with goalscoring like that, the goals conceded side of things really shouldn’t be a factor.

With the above in mind, you have to feel that the odds on the away win here are good value today. Goal-shy, leaky Oss realistically shouldn’t be able to stand up to an on-fire Volendam that simply cannot stop scoring.

Verdict: Volendam to win at 5/6.

Recommended bets:

Gotta love the “dead-cert” bet containing PSV Eindhoven, Excelsior, Zwolle, and Fenerbahce at 11/8. Although it doesn’t offer much value for the regular bet, a hefty stake should bring a good return as I can’t see any of those sides slipping up today.

Alternatively, I do like the look of FC Honka Espoo, FC Zwolle, PSV Eindhoven, and Fortuna Dusseldorf at 6/1 with medium stakes. The two “moneymakers” Honka & Fortuna should both win with generous odds and the other two are accumulator fodder that should walk their games so I’d take this bet on with medium stakes.

Fancy a risky bet? Try this one for size; Empoli, VFB Stuttgart, and lay Haka at 9/1. Each of these calls has a chance of coming in but don’t go sticking your house on it; keep punts low!

As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!

Australian A-League:

Central Coast Mariners vs Gold Coast United (6) 2-2
Perth Glory vs Wellington Phoenix (7) 1-1

Finnish Liiga Cup:

Haka Valkeakoski vs JJK Jyvaskyla (4) 1-1
FC Honka Espoo vs TPS Turku (8) 2-0

German Bundesliga:

SC Freiburg vs VFB Stuttgart (7) 1-2