Fenerbahce vs Bursaspor
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Turkish Super Lig game between Fenerbahce and Bursaspor. Fenerbahce enter this game three points adrift of league leaders Trabzonspor but do have a game in hand. However, visitors Bursaspor trail Trabzonspor by twelve points despite having a game in hand so their grip on the crown appears to be slipping.
Fenerbahce’s form lately has been absolutely immense and that makes them a very dangerous side indeed. They’ve won eleven out of thirteen home games in the Super Lig already this season despite the vast majority of it being rather average, in my humble opinion, so you can see how strong they are on their own turf. They’ve averaged scoring well over two goals per home game and considering that they’ve won no less than eleven consecutive games in all competitions ahead of this game, you have to favour them to improve their already impressive record today. Their last match ended in a heroic 1-2 victory at bitter rivals Galatasaray so Fenerbahce couldn’t have more confidence at the moment, especially when you recall that they won at Besiktas JK the month before that. Who can stop them? With Niang – easily the best striker in Turkey – in fine form and the ageless Alex pulling the strings, this Fenerbahce side can beat anyone. Bursaspor may have capitalised on a poor Fenerbahce season last year by winning here 2-3 but let’s face it – they’ve lost four out of their last five visits to Fenerbahce for a reason and I’d be surprised to hear that they’re looking forward to such a difficult game today, especially as they desperately need three points from it whereas Fenerbahce could theoretically afford to drop points as Trabzonspor don’t convince me at the moment.
Bursaspor are the more tactically aware side of these two and that’s how they like to play their football – defensively secure and by taking chances when they come their way. The addition of experienced Scottish striker Kenny Miller was a good one, in my eyes, as Bursaspor really lacked a clinical edge in front of goal before his signature. However, you can count the number of Bursaspor players that would get into the Fenerbahce team on one hand, in my view, and that does make a difference here. Bursaspor haven’t prepared well for this game either, failing to win for three consecutive games now, even drawing 0-0 at home to Ankaragucu last match. To get a result here, as Bursaspor well know, they have to score a lot of goals and do they look capable of it? They certainly don’t to me. They’ll be hard for Fenerbahce to break down, no doubt, and they’ll work very hard indeed against their more illustrious hosts but I just don’t think they’ll be able to keep them out for the whole game and that’s where they should come undone.
Bursaspor’s away form this season is immaculate with a lot of counter-attacking goals scored, some immense defensive displays, and just one defeat in thirteen away games as a result. However, they’re facing what I wouldn’t hesitate to call the best side in Turkey right now and the hosts have so much firepower and creativity on their side that I cannot help but side with a Fenerbahce win here. Fenerbahce may miss influential midfielder Emre here but the big news is that Bursaspor captain Omer is suspended and his defensive compatriot Keceli also misses this game. Without their notorious defence, Bursaspor don’t have a hope here and the above shows that 50% of it is missing. For me, there’s terrific value on a Fenerbahce win today.
Team news – Fenerbahce miss Emre and Selcuk whereas Bursaspor miss Keceli and Omer.
Verdict: Fenerbahce to win at 4/5.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs Atletico Huracan – lay Godoy Cruz de Mendoza at 5/6.
Ah, my old favourite – going against Godoy Cruz de Mendoza before or after a Copa Libertadores game! This naive but tenacious side tends to struggle before and after Copa Libertadores games due to either fatigue and/or squad rotation and considering that they’ve only just got back from a 2-1 defeat in Uruguay against giants Penarol, they’re not going to be raring to go for this game. They’re a decent side that can create chances and play good football but they’re very vulnerable at the back and Huracan can exploit that there. Huracan are better than they were last season, something which people are overlooking. They’re a solid side defensively and have been for some time; they only lacked in attacking ability. They signed lots of attacking players pre-season and they are playing a lot better as a result, not to mention scoring more goals, so they need to be taken seriously here. I was contemplating taking Huracan DNB but they’ve not finished enough sides off this season. Instead, they’ve become even harder to beat with only River Plate achieving it in their past seven games so I’ll instead opt for the laying of Godoy Cruz de Mendoza, which is decently priced at 5/6.
Verdict: Lay Godoy Cruz de Mendoza at 5/6.
Quilmes vs River Plate – away win at 6/5.
This is one of the few times that I’ll dip into the market to back River Plate because River Plate don’t have goalscorers anymore. They have their ever-present midfield with plenty of promise and creativity. Hell, they even have a solid back four, for a change. However, in terms of scoring goals, they’re a pretty feeble side as they’ve either got under-achieving Pavone or some kids running amok. River Plate’s kids have long been amongst the best in Argentina and I’ve no doubt whatsoever that the likes of Mori will be a very good player in future but there’s so much pressure on the youngster at the moment due to River’s lack of goals that it’s just not fair, to be honest. They’ve done well to keep hold of Buonanotte on loan despite selling him to Malaga as his pace and dribbling from midfield causes continual problems for River’s opponents and their attackers need all the help they can get. However, River Plate are not a goalscoring side hence me not backing them very often anymore.
This is one of the rare times I’ll do so, however. Why? Well, it’s basically because Quilmes are crap. More specifically, it’s because Quilmes are one of just a handful of sides that have less ability in front of goal than River do. Neither side is free of the relegation zone yet and considering that these are two of the oldest clubs in Argentina, you can expect strong rivalry here. However, there’s only one side that’s going to score here in my eyes and that’s River. If River manage to do that then the away win at 6/5 looks very intriguing indeed.
Verdict: River Plate to win at 6/5.
Beroe vs Lokomotiv Sofia – either side not to score at evens.
The best home defence in Bulgaria’s A PFG mees an impotent Lokomotiv Sofia attack; result? No Lokomotiv Sofia goal, in my view. However, given that I can’t find odds on that selection, I’ve adopted a slightly different approach for this game.
Beroe are a terrific home side in that they’re very compact, incredibly hard to break down, and thus it’s no surprise that they’re unbeaten in nine home games this season. However, only Akademik Sofia and Kaliakra have scored less goals at home than Beroe have so their problems in scoring are very evident too. However, their tactical approach says that their games will have few goals scored or conceded and that’s proven to be the case at home all season long, just as it did last season. Therefore, don’t expect many goals here.
Lokomotiv Sofia are the bigger of the two sides and their away record may have you questioning my call but never fear! As always, I do have my reasons. As I’ve mentioned before, Lokomotiv Sofia last season were Genkov, Asamoah, and Kamburov. However, Kamburov left and the other two carried the team for a while with some excellent attacking displays. In January this year though, target man Genkov returned to Dinamo Moscow after his loan spell ended and was promptly signed by Wisla Krakow in Poland whereas Asamoah left Lokomotiv Sofia to try his hand in South Korea with Pohang Steelers. As a result, Lokomotiv’s attack is pretty poor, in all honesty. They’ve tried bringing in Jemal Johnson from Milton Keynes Dons to replace Asamoah and Saidhodzha from CSKA Sofia to replace Genkov but neither are doing it at the moment. Lokomotiv have scored just once in their past three games and actually lost 0-3 at home to Minior Pernik last match, which is very embarrassing for them. They realise their problems but it’s too late to do anything about it; they’ll have to wait for summer now but I don’t see them doing much between now and then, especially given their defensive frailties.
For me, backing either of the two sides above not to score at evens looks a real gem at evens, even better than my initial thoughts on this game. I just don’t see how both sides will score given the above information so my call is for either side not to score.
Verdict: Either side not to score at evens.
Brno vs Teplice – both teams to score at 5/6.
Brno need the points and only score goals at home whereas Teplice concede against anyone that uses attackers whilst scoring goals freely. Both sides to score, anyone? That’s my thought process here. Brno’s defence is terrible but they do know how to find the net at home. Teplice generally don’t travel too well but they’ve attacked really well lately and it’s earned them some good points along the way, although they have conceded in three out of their last four games so there’s definitely room for improvement. However, given how much Brno need the points and how well Teplice are playing, the logical option here is for both sides to score, in my view.
Without a word of a lie, I thought of this tip before checking the head-to-head record so I’m happy to report that both sides have scored in this exact fixture for the past nine times that it’s been played so we should be onto a winner here.
Verdict: Both teams to score at 5/6.
OGC Nice vs Olympique Lyonnais – away win at 4/5.
Nice’s defence can be hard to breach at Stade Municipal de Ray but with no Emerson Fae in front of their back four today, they should find the game agains Lyon too tough to manage. Lyon’s speciality is dropping into “the hole”, especially when their target man is lethal Lisandro Lopez so Lyon really should have some joy here. The talk this week has all been about Ederson returning to his former club after a lengthy injury but I don’t see him featuring here as he’s still not 100%, understandably. Lyon have been good on the road in Ligue 1 lately though, winning at a tricky Sochaux side, beating bitter rivals Saint-Etienne 1-4, and drawing 1-1 with in-form LOSC Lille so I think they’re worth a shout here. Nice are in a rich vein of form too as they bid to beat the drop but without Fae to win the ball for them today, I don’t envision a happy ending for the hosts. Lyon may miss a bit of steel themselves with no Toulalan and a bit of width with no Bastos but they have good enough replacements for this game, in my view. For me, this game is all about squad depth and Lyon have more of it than Nice and thus my call is the away win here at 4/5, which is a decent price in my eyes.
Team news – OGC Nice miss Fae, Cantareil, Hellebuyck, Bagayoko, Mabiala, and Quansah whereas Olympique Lyonnais miss Toulalan, Bastos, and Delgado.
Verdict: Olympique Lyonnais to win at 4/5.
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SSC Napoli vs Lazio – home win at 4/5.
Internazionale’s 3-0 defeat in the Milan derby last night means that SSC Napoli can claim second place in the Serie A table with three points against Lazio today and I’m sure they’ll be motivated to do it with the above in mind. That said, with their first scudetto in many years still on the horizon for them, they should be motivated anyway as AC Milan are not immortal in footballing terms!
Napoli have looked good this season which is largely thanks to Uruguayan striker Cavani, who is really coming of age. He’s far over-shadowing striker partner Lavezzi and even playmaker Hamsik behind them both as he continues to score goals at will with a great level of composure. Napoli’s cast-iron defence is obviously another source of joy when playing at home as they have the best defensive record in Serie A when playing at home whilst averaging scoring nearly two goals per home game so it’s easy to see why they’ve already won ten out of fifteen home games this season. They’ve not been at their best lately as they’ve struggled for form but back-to-back wins against Parma away and Cagliari at home have given Napoli some much-needed momentum to bring into this game and it should be enough for the talented hosts to win this one today.
Of course, my decision to back Napoli was greatly assisted by the fact that Romanian defender Stefan Radu cannot play in this game. For me, he holds the Lazio defence together and without him, they struggle. As if that weren’t bad enough, though – Lazio also miss essential holding midfielders Matuzalem and Ledesma respectively, not to mention long-term absentee target man Rocchi. Lazio miss Rocchi because none of their other strikers bring the aerial prowess or experience to this Lazio team that he does and although Czech striker Kozak is a promising striker, Lazio still miss something without Rocchi, especially given that Zarate isn’t having a good season. Therefore, we have two important areas that Lazio are going to struggle in today, in my view, so it doesn’t look good for the Romans.
Without their holding midfielders, Lazio are not going to be able to stop Hamsik and if they don’t stop the talented Slovakian playmaker then they’re going to suffer. There’s no Radu to marshall the Lazio defence against Cavani and Lavezzi and there’s no Rocchi to hold the ball up if Lazio do counter-attack. For me, this game is Napoli’s to lose and I think the price of 4/5 on the home win is rather generous with the above in mind.
Team news – SSC Napoli have doubts over Santacroce and Grava whereas Lazio miss Radu, Ledesma, Matuzalem, Rocchi, and Diakite.
Verdict: SSC Napoli to win at 4/5.
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Genoa vs Cagliari – home win at 6/5.
I’d leave it if the odds drop but I like the idea of Genoa winning this one at 6/5.
Genoa are missing important midfielder Milanetto, experienced defender Kaladze, and attacker Destro for this game which would normally be enough to put me off backing the Genova-based outfit. However, they’ve won three out of their last four home games, drawing the other game, so they do bring momentum into this encounter, which is important. Their absentees are a blow but Floro Flores, Paloschi, Boselli, and Palacio have enough attacking ability between them to create and score at least one goal today so I’ll give Genoa some faith here. The flip side of the coin is that Cagliari are missing their two best attacking players with star attacker Nene absent and ex-Roma midfielder Conti absent too, which deprives Cagliari of a great deal of potency and leaves Acquafresca somewhat isolated today. With that in mind, I just don’t see Cagliari scoring here, especially on the back of two defeats in a row whilst shipping six goals and scoring just once along the way. Therefore, the home win at 6/5 appeals to me here but as I said earlier – leave it if the odds drop as Genoa are missing some important players for this one.
Team news – Genoa miss Kucka, Milanetto, Kaladze, and Destro whereas Cagliari miss Conti and Nene.
Verdict: Genoa to win at 6/5.
Catania vs Palermo – home win at 13/10.
The Sicily derby isn’t one that I regularly get involved in but I have to favour Simeone’s Catania as Palermo have been terrible lately. Catania have won their last three home games in a row against Sampdoria, Genoa, and Lecce respectively, showing their true grit and determination by doing so. As ever, Catania do miss some big players for this game, namely Potenza in defence, Izco in midfield, and Capuano in midfield too. However, I expect them to cope with those absences as they always do – by working hard and making life difficult for their opponents. The thing is with their opponents Palermo is that it’s easy to get into their faces and if you do that then they struggle. Palermo have been woeful away from home this season, just as they are most seasons. They’ve lost their last three away games in a row without even scoring a goal and even the superb Javier Pastore can’t pull them out of that one, which is something that should affect them here.
Palermo have a very good midfield with Bacinovic, Ilicic, and Pastore supporting the likes of Miccoli in attack. However, Catania’s combative tactics often work well against their neighbours as is shown by the fact that they’ve won their last three home derbies and I fancy them to make it a fourth today. Catania know how to play against Palermo and with the fans on their side, I think we’ll see a home win today.
Team news – Catania miss Izco, Llama, Potenza, and Capuano whereas Palermo miss Pinilla.
Verdict: Catania to win at 13/10.
AS Roma vs Juventus – home win at 4/5.
I can’t say that I’m a big advocate of Vincenzo Montella as AS Roma boss – I think that there are better candidates out there for the job. However, his Roma side have scored nine goals in their last five Serie A games as they adopt a much more attacking style and although that exposes their shoddy defence more than normal, they are scoring more goals as a result. Roma beat Lazio in the Rome derby last month and their last game was a respectable 2-2 draw at in-form Fiorentina so I cannot deny that Montella has given Roma the authority to score at will, which is pleasing. Barring number one goalkeeper Julio Sergio, AS Roma bring a full squad into this game too so you have to expect the likes of Menez, Totti, and Vucinic to do damage against Juventus tonight.
Juventus can only contribute to the above with a patched-up defence and an impotent attacking line too. As we all know, Quagliarella is out for the season, which is still a big blow for Juventus, even now. In addition to that, they also miss veteran Del Piero and target man Iaquinta for this game so you have to question where their goals are coming from. They’ll undoubtedly field towering Luca Toni against his former club and you won’t find me betting against him scoring against his former club. However, there doesn’t look to be enough firepower in the Juve team to outscore Roma here so I don’t see them doing much in this game. Indeed, even if they do take the lead – how will they hold it? There’s no Sissoko to combat Roma’s 4-5-1 and there’s big doubts over the fitness of Chiellini for this game, which would be a mammoth blow for Juventus if he were to miss out tonight. You can see how much Juventus are struggling away from home at the moment with their last away game ending in a 2-2 draw at relegation-threatened Cesena so just imagine how much trouble awaits them against an inspired Roma side tonight!
It was 2004 when Roma last beat Juventus in Rome but they won’t get many better opportunities than this. For me, the home win is a steal at 4/5 tonight.
Team news – AS Roma miss Julio Sergio whereas Juventus miss De Ceglie, Quagliarella, Iaquinta, Sissoko, and Del Piero whilst having doubts over Chiellini and Martinez.
Verdict: AS Roma to win at 4/5.
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AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Heracles Almelo – away win with +1.5 goal head start at evens.
I’ve explained innumerate times in the past how ineffectual Ajax’s strikers tend to be and I expect the same issues to plague them today. They knock the ball around beautifully at times and there’s plenty of pace and energy in their team. However, there’s no finesse on a consistent basis and that’s something that de Boer will need to resolve in summer or Ajax face yet another frustrating Eredivisie season. The most concerning news for the hosts today is in defence, however. They miss number one goalkeeper Stekelenburg, as we all know. However, in addition to him, they miss Belgian defenders Alderweireld and Vertonghen here, which means that Ajax’s defence are basically sitting ducks. Given that Ajax don’t score enough goals to begin with, I think there’s a very good chance that they might not even win this game. The only advantage I will give them here is that Heracles are used to playing on artificial turf so that might go against the visitors today. However, Heracles have been absolutely phenomenal lately and it’s been long overdue, to be honest – they had a very sluggish start to their Eredivisie campaign. Heracles are now unbeaten in five consecutive games, winning their last four consecutively and scoring an amazing eighteen times along the way, which is an average of nearly five goals per game! They’ve battered Groningen away from home during that time and natural grass didn’t bother them then so why should it now? They’ve got terrific confidence and momentum here and the absence of half of Ajax’s defence will only give them more confidence so I really wouldn’t rule out Heracles maybe even edging this one today.
Heracles don’t have a great record at the Amsterdam ArenA so I’m approaching this one with some caution but given how well the visitors are playing and how few goals Ajax score, giving the visitors a +1.5 goal head start at evens looks a bargain here.
Team news – AFC Ajax Amsterdam miss Lodeiro, Bruno Silva, Stekelenburg, Alderweireld, and Vertonghen whereas Heracles Almelo miss Quansah and Rendla.
Verdict: Heracles Almelo to win with a +1.5 goal head start at evens.
Rosenborg BK vs Stabaek – home win with -1.5 handicap at evens.
It’s still early in the Eliteserien campaign in Norway but I’m confident that Rosenborg can beat the handicap here. Stabaek were crushed 0-7 at home against Lillestrom last match, which was a crippling result on various levels. Stabaek are trying to adjust to life without veteran Nannskogg in attack following his retirement but that’s not going too well at the moment. In addition to that, Stabaek miss number one goalkeeper Knudsen for this game, just as they did last match. In addition to that, they were playing at their beloved Telenor Arena last match, which has an artificial surface – that’s one of their strengths! Away from it, playing on natural grass, they really struggle and I expect to see that at Lerkendal today. Rosenborg are a much better side than Stabaek nowadays and they tend to show it at home too, winning five out of their last six home games against Stabaek and beating the -1.5 handicap in three of those games. Rosenborg surprised everyone by losing at Brann Bergen on the opening day of the current campaign but it was a rivalry match, to be fair, and these things can happen at the start of the season. What I would say is that I doubt you’ll see Rosenborg play as badly as that again this season and similarly, I doubt you’ll see Brann Bergen play as well as that…well, ever again, really! For me, Rosenborg will bounce back here in convincing style and I don’t see that there’s much Stabaek can do about it so I fancy the -1.5 handicap here.
Team news – Stabaek miss Jon Knudsen.
Verdict: Rosenborg BK to beat the -1.5 handicap at evens.
Start Kristiansand vs Stromsgodset – home win at 4/5.
These two sides both play attacking football so we should see an open game with plenty of goals here, just as this game usually produces. However, Stromsgodset don’t play well away from the Marienlyst – they’re notorious for it in Norway as they’re crap on natural grass, which is what Start Kristiansand have. Start won their opening game 0-2 at Odd Grenland Skien whereas Stromsgodset beat newly-promoted Sogndal 2-1 in Drammen. Start won this fixture 4-2 last season and should be on course to do it again today, especially with the addition of Ghanaian attacker Asante from Beveren to their squad over the season break. The departures of Bolanos and Goodson will hurt them eventually but I don’t see it being the case today – Stromsgodset almost always struggle on natural grass.
Verdict: Start Kristiansand to win at 4/5.
Molde FK vs Tromso – home win at evens.
In a similar vein to the above preview, Tromso struggle away from the Alfheim because it has artificial turf. Well, that and because they don’t score goals! They defend well with Miika Koppinen holding them together at the back and it’s pleasing to see former academy product Regniussen returning to his roots in Tromso to partner him long-term, although he’s not really match fit at the moment after plenty of time on the sidelines at Schalke 04. Unfortunately for Tromso, they’ve done next to nothing about their issue of not scoring enough goals with the burden now left to thirty-eight year old target man Sigurd Rushfeldt, who does a very good job considering his advancing years but against a quick side like Molde FK, there’s a good chance he’ll be isolated here. It’s not as evident at home but away from home, I suspect they’ll miss the departed Tommy Knarvik rather a lot as he links up their midfield to their attack, or used to, I should say. At home, Tromso attack as a unit and thus it’s not as evident but away from home they’re going to struggle to get the ball to Rushfeldt and support him properly so I think Tromso’s away form will stutter this season. Hosts Molde were drubbed 3-0 by newly-promoted Sarpsborg 08 away from home in their opening game of the Eliteserien campaign – hardly a dream start for former Manchester United legend Ole Gunnar Solskjaer! However, on familiar turf and without the pressure of the first game on their backs, I expect a much more convincing display from Molde FK today. Let’s face it – they absolutely have the personnel in Thioune and Diouf, especially with Molde legend Hoseth sat behind them in the hole. Eikrem was brought in to add creativity to the Molde midfield and Solskjaer signed N’Guessan from Honefoss to bolster Molde’s attacking options so they should score goals here and if they do then they should win the game, by my logic. They’ve got a long way to go as a unit, Molde, especially in defence, but they should have enough to win this game and the odds are generous enough to take today too.
Verdict: Molde FK to win at evens.
Anzhi Makhachkala vs Rubin Kazan – away win at 6/5.
What can I say? I’m working on the principle that I have done frequently of late; Anzhi have some fantastic individuals but they’re not galvanised at all yet. Therefore, they’re fairly easy to score against and they don’t score many themselves as of yet. Put that type of side against a wall of Rubin Kazan tactics and experience and you only have one winner. Away wins in Russia are never easy to call due to the initimidating venues that you come across but Rubin Kazan have more than enough ability to score against a disjointed Anzhi Makhachkala side and to hold it against their ineffectual attack. For me, there’s value in the away win at 6/5.
Verdict: Rubin Kazan to win at 6/5.
Espanyol vs Racing Santander – both sides to score at 5/6.
First of all, Undiano Malleno is refereeing this game and he’s a lunatic who will send anyone off for anything so don’t go heavily into this game as a red card can always fuck bets up.
However, I still like the call of both sides scoring despite neither being particularly prolific. Why? Well, Espanyol revelation Osvaldo is finally back from long-term injury and as he’s their best striker by some distance, their goals tally should improve a lot more in the near future now that Callejon isn’t carrying them as much. Sergio Garcia is injured for this game so Osvaldo is almost certain to feature alongside Luis Garcia at somepoint and given that Espanyol almost always score in Barcelona, I think it’s fair to expect them to do so today. However, I think Santander will give them a good game today because that’s what they do with Marcelino at the helm. They defend well but they take their chances too. It’s no coincidence at all that since Marcelino returned to Santander, they’ve scored in all nine games that he’s been in charge for, including games against Real Madrid, Villarreal CF, and Sevilla CF. With experienced Munitis, skilful Dos Santos getting more game time, and target man Rosenberg finally beginning to click, I think it’s time to finally acknolwedge the fact that Santander’s side is dangerous in attack, something that they’ve not been since…well, since Marcelino was last in charge! Their defence is a little more vulnerable now as it’s been torn apart a bit lately and thus I think Espanyol will “join the party” there too. Rather than enter a complicated and unpredictable 1×2 market here though, my call is for both sides to score at decent odds.
Team news – Espanyol miss Sergio Garcia, Baena, Eric, Thievy, and Isaias whereas Racing Santander miss Tziolis, Serrano, Arana, and Francis.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 5/6.
Deportivo La Coruna vs Real Mallorca – home win at 11/8.
Lotina must be getting pissed off with Deportivo not taking their chances because he’s named all their strikers in this squad. Yes, he’s named Xisco, Lassad, Sand, Adrian, and Riki all in the squad for their home game with Mallorca today so Depor clearly mean business. After back-to-back defeats against Espanyol away and Levante at home respectively, it’s easy to see why that is, especially as Depor have failed to score in both games. There’s a heavy reliance on Mexican winger Guardado in A Coruna at the moment because Depor’s creativity isn’t what it used to be with Valeron and Rodriguez doing most of the playmaking nowadays. However, they have the firepower to do damage here and as long as they take their chances then I’m confident that they’ll beat the islanders today.
Mallorca simply don’t travel well and without battling de Guzman in midfield, who is suspended, I don’t see them having a great time at the Riazor either. This is one of the most intimidating venues in Spain to play in and Mallorca know it, having failed to even score here for three out of their last four visits. Mallorca’s eight defeats in fourteen Primera Liga away games this season looks likely to get worse today against a strong Depor side, in my view, especially with Mallorca failing to provide a consistent threat on goal. Webo can be handled by the Deportivo defence today and I just don’t see where else Mallorca’s goals will come from, barring the ever-excellent Castro.
Although there’s risk in this bet as Depor don’t score many goals, I do think that they’re priced a little long to win the game at 11/8 as they do have firepower – they just need to take their chances. Therefore, my call is the home win here.
Team news – Real Mallorca miss de Guzman, Sergi Enrich, Corrales, and Aki.
Verdict: Deportivo La Coruna to win at 11/8.
Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid – home win at 3/2.
I was looking to take over 2.5 goals here initially, given the recent ways of both clubs but having seen that there’s no Aguero or Merida for Atletico Madrid here, I have to take an Osasuna win.
Atletico Madrid never enjoy playing Basque sides, even more than most Spanish sides. I don’t entirely know why – my guess is because Atletico are one of the least physical sides in the Primera Liga whereas the Basque country is a very physical region for football but even so – Atletico always struggle against them, irrespective of the final score and I expect that to be the case today. I’d normally not touch an Osasuna win here because they don’t score anywhere near enough goals. However, since Mendilibar took over, they’ve bagged eight goals in three games so they need to be taken seriously now. Pandiani is a dangerous striker and with Osasuna being very good for supporting their striker(s) with their midfield, they tend to make it count. They smashed three goals past a good Racing Santander side in their last home game here and having now gone four games unbeaten, winning their last three in a row, I have to fancy them to beat Atletico in Pamplona, just as they have done for two out of the last three years.
Atletico Madrid can occasionally turn up and score goals but it’s far too infrequent to interest me and frankly this side is generally overrated by most people simply because they can name a couple of their players. They’re not a particularly good side on a consistent basis, especially so away from home. They concede goals far too easily, despite the fantastic De Gea in net, and they don’t really score enough considering that goalscoring is supposed to be their specialist area. Atletico have lost half their away games in the Primera Liga this season and only just average scoring over a goal per away game – it’s not very convincing, is it?
I won’t rule out the possibility of an Atletico win here because they’re the kind of side that turns it on once in a blue moon and wins a game in spectacular fashion. However, the likelihood from an averages perspective is that they’re turn in one of their usual dour away displays and if they do that against in-form Osasuna then they’ll be lucky to get a draw. For me, there’s value in the home win at 3/2.
Team news – Osasuna miss Aranda and Ruper whereas Atletico Madrid miss Aguero, Merida, and Valera.
Verdict: Osasuna to win at 3/2.
Mjallby Solvsborg vs Helsingborg – away win at 11/10.
Mjallby’s first season in the Allsvenskan sees them obtain an advantage that few other sides around the world, if indeed any, possess – wind. No, I don’t mean that there’s shit all over the pitch. What I mean is that the general area has very strong wind and it affects the games that are played there unless you’re used to it ala Mjallby so don’t wade too heavily into this one until we see how Allsvenskan clubs deal with it.
However, from a quality perspective, Helsingborg are much better than Mjallby. Mjallby may have kept hold of star El Kabir pre-season but they’re going to struggle defensively if their best defender is thirty-nine year old Rosengren! Needless to say that he’s not the most mobile of defenders nowadays and the likes of promising Helsingborg striker Gerndt can rip him apart with his lightning pace. Mjallby do have some good and experienced players ala goalkeeper Asper and midfield nutcase Grahn, not to mention emerging striker Petrone. However, Helsingborg are the ones that bring the quality to Strandvallen today, especially with emerging striker Rasmus Jonsson linking up well with Gerndt in attack. If Helsingborg have a flaw then it’s that their attack is youthful to say the least but they’re not lacking in quality and that should show here. The tenacity of South African holding midfielder Mahlangu gives Helsingborg a big advantage in difficult away games like this as he’s very combative and with the experience and class of the likes of old hand Erik Edman at left-back and Christoffer Andersson in midfield, Helsingborg should have what it takes to make this season, and indeed this game, a good one.
Although there’s new factors to consider here, for me, there’s value in backing Helsingborg at 11/10 today.
Verdict: Helsingborg to win at 11/10.
Accumulator fodder:
Universidad de Chile, Viktoria Plzen, AFG Aarhus, Manchester City, Hertha HSC Berlin, Olympiakos Piraeus, Daugava Daugavpils, FK Ventspils, Rosenborg BK, Universidad San Martin, Wisla Krakow, Servette, Lausanne Sports.
Recommended bets:
Fenerbahce, Wisla Krakow, and Rosenborg BK at 3/1.
AS Roma, AGF Aarhus, and Olympiakos Piraeus at just over 2/1.
SSC Napoli, Manchester City, and FK Ventspils at 3/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs Atletico Huracan (4) 1-2
Quilmes vs River Plate (5) 0-1
San Lorenzo de Almagro vs Colon de Santa Fe (6) 1-0
Boca Juniors vs Estudiantes De La Plata (5) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Austrian Bundesliga:
LASK Linz vs Salzburg (7) 0-2
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Anderlecht vs Standard de Liege (4) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Racing Genk vs Lokeren (6) 2-1
Bulgarian A PFG:
Beroe vs Lokomotiv Sofia (6) 1-0
Chilean Primera Division:
Audax Italiano vs Colo Colo (6) 2-2
Cobreloa vs Palestino (5) 0-1
Cobresal vs Nublense (7) 2-1
Santiago Wanderers vs Huachipato (7) 1-0
Universidad de Chile vs Santiago Morning (8) 2-1
Colombian Primera A:
La Equidad Bogota vs Boyaca Chico (7) 1-0
Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota vs Millonarios Bogota (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Cucuta Deportivo vs Deportes Quindio (5) 1-0
Deportivo Pereira vs Once Caldas Manizales (4) 1-1
Itagui Ditaires vs Envigado (7) under 2.5 goals
Atletico Huila vs Deportes Tolima (6) 1-1
Cypriot Division 1:
AEK Larnaca vs APOEL Nicosia (5) 1-1
Omonia Nicosia vs Anorthosis Famagusta (5) 2-2
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Ceske Budejovice vs Slovacko (6) 1-0
Usti nad Labem vs Viktoria Plzen (8) over 2.5 goals
Brno vs Teplice (5) 2-2
Slavia Prague vs Hradec Kralove (7) 2-0
Danish Superligaen:
Randers vs SonderjyskE (7) 2-0
AC Horsens vs Nordsjaelland (7) 2-1
Brondby vs Silkeborg (4) 1-1
Danish 1st Division:
Skive vs Vestjaelland (5) over 2.5 goals
Fyn vs Hvidovre (5)
Hjorring vs Vejle (6)
Naestved vs Hobro (6)
AGF Aarhus vs Kolding (8) -1.5 handicap
AB Copenhagen vs Roskilde (7)
Fredericia vs Viborg (6) under 2.5 goals
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Emelec Guayaquil vs Deportivo Cuenca (7) 1-0
English Premier League:
Fulham vs Blackpool (7) over 2.5 goals
Manchester City vs Sunderland (8) 2-0
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
B71 Sandur vs KI Klaksvik (6) 1-1
07 Vestur Sorvagur vs B36 Torshavn (5) 2-2
NSI Runavik vs HB Torshavn (6) 2-1
French Ligue 1:
OGC Nice vs Olympique Lyonnais (7) 0-1
Saint-Etienne vs Valenciennes (6) 2-1
Racing Club Lens vs Olympique de Marseille (5) 1-1
German Bundesliga:
Koln vs Nurnberg (7) 2-1
VfL Wolfsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt (7) 1-0
German Bundesliga 2:
Hertha BSC Berlin vs Paderborn (8)
Alemannia Aachen vs 1860 Munich (5) both sides to score
Rot-Weiss Oberhausen vs Union Berlin (5)
Greek Super League:
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kavala (8) 2-0
Olympiakos Volos vs Xanthi (6) 1-0
AEK Athens vs Atromitos (4) 1-1
Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Salonika (5) 0-0
PAOK Salonika vs Larissa (6) 1-0
Panserraikos vs Panathinaikos (7) 0-1
Ergotelis vs Iraklis (5) 1-0
Kerkyra vs Panionios (7) 1-1
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Debreceni VSC vs Gyori ETO FC (3) 0-1
Italian Serie A:
SSC Napoli vs Lazio (7) 2-0
Parma vs Bari (6) 1-0
Genoa vs Cagliari (6) 1-0
Cesena vs Fiorentina (5) 0-1
Catania vs Palermo (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Chievo Verona vs Sampdoria (6) 0-0
Lecce vs Udinese (7) over 2.5 goals
AS Roma vs Juventus (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Latvian Virsliga:
Daugava Daugavpils vs Gulbene 2005 (8) -1.5 handicap
FK Ventspils vs FK Jurmala (9) -1.5 handicap
FC Jurmala vs Jelgava (6) 2-1
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Atletas vs Dainava (6) 1-0
Zalgiris Vilnius vs Klaipeda (7) 1-0
Mexican Primera Division:
Morelia vs Pachuca (7) 1-0
Toluca vs Monterrey (5) 1-1
Dutch Eredivisie:
Vitesse Arnhem vs NEC Nijmegen (4) 1-1
FC Utrecht vs ADO Den Haag (7) over 2.5 goals
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Heracles Almelo (4) 1-1
Groningen vs VVV Venlo (8) 2-1
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Sogndal vs Odd Grenland Skien (5) 2-1
Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 (4) 1-1
Start Kristiansand vs Stromsgodset (7) over 2.5 goals
Molde FK vs Tromso (6) 2-1
Rosenborg BK vs Stabaek (9) -1.5 handicap
Norwegian Divisjon 1:
Sandnes Ulf vs Bryne (6)
Asker vs Hamarkameratene (5) over 2.5 goals
Hodd vs Bodo Glimt (5)
Kongsvinger vs Mjondalen (6) over 2.5 goals
Nybergsund vs Alta (6)
Randaberg vs Strommen (6)
Ranheim vs Lov-Ham Bergen (5)
Sandefjord vs Honefoss (5)
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Independiente FBC vs 3 de Febrero (6) 1-1
Sportivo Luqueno vs Tacuary (6) 0-0
Sol de America vs Rubio Nu (5) 1-1
Olimpia Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Peruvian Primera Division:
Cobresol vs Alianza Atletico (6) 0-0
Cienciano vs Union Comercio (7) 2-0
Universidad San Martin vs Leon de Huanuco (8) -1.5 handicap
Universidad Cesar Vallejo vs Alianza Lima (6) 1-1
Juan Aurich vs Melgar FBC (7) 2-0
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Wisla Krakow vs Jagiellonia Bialystok (8) 2-0
Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow (6) over 2.5 goals
Polish Liga 1:
Dolcan Zabki vs Pogon Szczecin (6)
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Rio Ave vs Vitoria Setubal (5) 1-0
Olhanense vs Naval de Maio (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Sporting Clube de Lisboa (4) 1-0
SL Benfica vs Porto (3) 0-1, at least one red card in this game
Romanian Liga:
Pandurii Targu Jiu vs CFR Cluj (5) 1-0
Rapid Bucharest vs Gaz Metan Medias (5) 1-1
Russian Premier League:
Spartak Nal’chik vs Zenit St.Petersburg (7) 0-1
Anzhi Makhachkala vs Rubin Kazan (7) 0-1
CSKA Moscow vs FK Krasnodar (7) under 2.5 goals
Scottish Premier League:
Hibernian vs Hearts (6) 0-0, at least one red card in this game
Spanish Primera Liga:
Real Sociedad vs Hercules Alicante (7) 1-0
Espanyol vs Racing Santander (5) 2-1
Levante vs Malaga (6) 1-1
Deportivo La Coruna vs Real Mallorca (7) 1-0
Sevilla CF vs Real Zaragoza (7) 1-0
Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid (6) 2-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Alcorcon vs Numancia (6) over 2.5 goals
Real Betis Balompie vs Celta de Vigo (5)
Ponferradina vs Girona (5)
Swedish Allsvenskan:
IFK Norrkoping vs GAIS Goteborg (6) 2-1
Malmo vs Trelleborg (4) 1-1
Syrianska Sodertalje vs Gefle (6) 0-0
Mjallby Solvsborg vs Helsingborg (6) 0-1
Swiss Super League:
Luzern vs St.Gallen (7) 2-1
Sion vs Young Boys Bern (6) 1-1
Thun vs FC Zurich (6) 0-1
Swiss Challenge League:
Servette vs Winterthur (8)
Delemont vs Yverdon Sport (7)
Lausanne Sports vs SC Kriens (8)
Turkish Super Lig:
Manisaspor vs Genclerbirligi (5) 1-1
Kayserispor vs Kasimpasa (6) under 2.5 goals
Istanbul BB vs Bucaspor (7) 1-0
Fenerbahce vs Bursaspor (7) 2-1
Ukrainian Premier League:
Vorksla Poltava vs Sevastopol (6) 1-0
Volyn Lutsk vs Karpaty Lviv (6) 1-2
Metalist Kharkiv vs Metalurg Zaporizhya (7) 2-1
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Penarol vs Tacuarembo (7) 2-1
Montevideo Wanderers vs El Tanque Sisley (6) 1-0
Central Espanol vs Rampla Juniors (6) 1-0
Bella Vista vs Liverpool Montevideo (5) 1-1
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Estudiantes de Merida vs Deportivo Anzoategui (6) 1-1
Yaracuyanos vs Mineros de Guayana (5) 1-0
Trujillanos vs Deportivo Lara (6) 2-1
Carabobo vs Atletico El Vigia (7) 1-0
Caroni vs Deportivo Petare (5) 1-1
Atletico Venezuela vs Aragua (6) 0-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!