Perth Glory vs Central Coast Mariners
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Today’s featured game is the Australian A-League game between Perth Glory and Central Coast Mariners. I’ve sat back for most A-League games this season whilst things take shape (it’s often a confusing league at the start) but I’m happy to wade in today.
First stop; Perth. The hosts are notoriously lavish spenders and usually on attackers, too. Subsequently, Perth Glory scoring goals is not a surprise, contrary to what their statistics this season show. However, times aren’t great for them right now; they’re not especially good in defence and thus conceding goals is hurting them, especially as they’re not taking the chances that they’re creating. It still staggers me that they’re not scoring as many with A-League legend Shane Smeltz there nowadays but that’s Perth Glory for you; lots of individuals but few team displays. The only side that they’ve beaten since late October is rock-bottom Gold Coast United, which is hardly anything to write home about. They showed up for the rivalry clash with Melbourne Victory with a 2-2 draw but aside from that, they’ve looked predictably vulnerable at the back and unexpectedly useless in front of goal. I rate Perth Glory as a side that can score goals but if they aren’t scoring goals then they’ve got a lot of problems.
Visitors Central Coast Mariners are having no problems scoring goals, however. I’m amazed by that though, to be quite honest. You look at their side and you don’t see stars or particularly experienced players in their ranks. No, you’ve got a couple of good players in Griffiths and Zwaanswijk but the rest are predominantly youngsters. I mean, Ibini-Isei, Amini, Bozanic, Ryan – they’re all young players and yet they’re really pulling their weight. They’re a very good attacking side with an extremely good level of cohesion, which helps massively. Credit has to go to boss Graham Arnold, really – I’ve no idea how he’s got this side playing so well but they’re really gelled and are a terrific threat this year as a 1-2 win at an reigning champions Brisbane Roar last match indicated. They’ve only failed to win once in their last eight A-League games so yeah – take these guys seriously.
Now, I do expect the title challenge of Central Coast Mariners to stumble at some point without reinforcements. They don’t have a huge squad and they don’t have bags of experience. They don’t really have stars, either, who usually can dig something out of nothing when the team struggles. However, until they hit fatigue, I’m going to take them very seriously because they fact is that they’re playing the best football in Australia right now and I can’t name a side that they’re better off facing today than Perth Glory, who lack a lot of cohesion and look unconvincing most of the time. For me, there’s value on the away win at 11/10 with the visitors in a rich vein of form.
Verdict: Central Coast Mariners to win at 11/10
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
Wellington Phoenix vs Newcastle Jets – home win at evens.
I tried jumping on Ricki Herbert’s Wellington Phoenix at the start of the season and it backfired on me as I’d forgotten the unwritten rule about not betting on the A-League at the start of the season. However, they’re easing back into their stride and thus I’m very keen on them here.
Wellington Phoenix are the only side in the A-League to play in New Zealand, which means that any side travelling to face them has a long, long way to go. That naturally helps Wellington Phoenix quite considerably. They usually capitalise on that by playing an energetic style of football with no fear of any side and plenty of combative players on the park. Well, I don’t think Herbert’s sides would dare play another way, really. Wellington Phoenix are a shade weaker than they were last season in terms of depth and it showed when they had players out at the start of the season. However, they’ve started to show their dependability and grit again now and that impresses me. They’ve got some experienced players in their ranks and although they struggle to ever get points away from home, they usually cause sides a lot of problems at home for reasons mentioned above. Wellington Phoenix have won three out of their last four home games, which includes a win against reigning champions Brisbane Roar, so let’s give them the credit that they deserve here. Contrary to what statistics may suggest, Wellington Phoenix are a goalscoring side and it’s happily starting to show again although I can’t help but smile at their defensive record of two clean sheets in a row at home; this side can’t defend for shit most of the time!
Visitors Newcastle Jets are notoriously bad away from home in the A-League because they’re very much a “home side”. You know the type – they battle like warriors at home, rely heavily on their support, play a physical game, threaten from set pieces, defend leads as if their lives depend on it. That game works fine for them at home because there aren’t many sides in the A-League that can deal with that approach effectively. However, away from home, Newcastle Jets just lock up and go defensive and it simply never works unless they’re playing a really bad side (hard, as there aren’t many sides with less quality than Newcastle Jets – they usually tend to rely on their cohesion and effort to do well) or unless the side they’re facing is missing players. You can look at their record of four losses in five away games this season and see how bad they are on the road or you can look at their goalscoring record away from home (which I personally feel is more prudent) to see where the problem lies. Sides can lose games unfortunately in football but in my view, it’s extremely important to understand why sides lose games as to know when to oppose them and when not to. Newcastle Jets have scored one goal on the road all season long and thus they’re losing games. That doesn’t necessarily make them a bad side defensively, as their away record would suggest. Indeed, I wouldn’t hesitate in saying that defence is their strongest area. However, what I would say is that a goal scored against them tends to kill them off and when they push out of their defensive approach, they tend to get caught out a lot, hence the bigger scorelines. They are short on quality though, and it does show.
Wellington Phoenix have already beaten them at home this season and I’m confident that they’ll do it again. A single goal from the dangerous hosts should be enough for them to secure three points here and they know how to make it count on their own turf. Therefore, the home win appeals to me at evens.
Verdict: Wellington Phoenix to win at evens.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Australian A-League:
Wellington Phoenix vs Newcastle Jets (6) 1-0
Melbourne Heart vs Melbourne Victory (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Perth Glory vs Central Coast Mariners (7) 1-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!