Slavia Prague vs Sigma Olomouc
FreeThoughts on never betting on the UEFA Europa League again, anyone? Every time I cover that damn competition it ends in a massacre!
Anyway, back to what should hopefully be a shade more realistic results…
Today’s featured game is the Gambrinus Liga game between Czech giants Slavia Prague and Sigma Olomouc. Neither side had European committments mid-week, unusually, so both sides should be fresh and raring to go.
You have to feel that Slavia Prague really aren’t on their game at the moment, however. It’s a shame to see the giants in such a bad way but to put it any other way would be a lie. Their quality level is currently that of a top six side; nothing more. They concede goals far too easily as seven goals conceded in their past three consecutive games shows. They’ve won just two games from six this season and in all honesty, they were lucky to win both, one of which was a narrow win at home to Mlada Boleslav and the other was a 3-2 win at impotent Brno. Since then, Slavia have shown their true colours by capitulating in grandiose style, throwing away a goal lead at home to Slovan Liberec and losing 3-1 and then threw away another goal lead at out-of-form Teplice last match before losing 2-1. Slavia Prague morale is low and understandably so; this isn’t the side that used to have Suchy, Svec, Necid, Svento, Jarolim, Latka etc. – this is just a poor imitation. Slavia Prague rely far too heavily on Slovakian midfielder Karol Kisel’s input from set pieces and the goals from ageing Vicek with his young strike partner Hora yet to learn the role. I look at this side and think to myself “Where is the quality? Where is the consistency?” and each time I cannot give any answers. The players are either too old, too young, or frankly not good enough. This is a really testing period for Slavia Prague and they don’t look likely to come out of it with glowing reviews. You’d have thought they’d have learned their lesson from last season as they failed to achieve a European place for the first time in many years but they’ve just not prepared for this season well enough to be able to win this kind of difficult game, in my opinion, so I can’t see them doing anything today.
Visitors Sigma Olomouc have started this season impeccably, actually forming some kind of consistency, unusually. If you look at their away displays this season then you can see why I’m so impressed by them at them as they’ve already travelled to Viktoria Plzen, Marila Pribram, and Banik Ostrava without losing any of those games, winning two of them! Pre-season I’d have said that Sigma Olomouc would have been lucky to win any of those games but well-organised and determined displays have gained them some very respectable results indeed. Banik lost some key players over the summer (i.e. Micola) but are still good enough to cause problems – Sigma still won there 2-1, however. Viktoria Plzen have won five out of six games already this season and the only side they’ve failed to beat is Sigma Olomouc after a 2-2 draw in Plzen. Sigma were held to a goalless draw from anti-football brigade Marila Pribram but so are most sides. Sigma have been playing really well, however, and four wins in six games, not to mention an average of over two goals scored per game is very, very impressive in my book. They beat Brno 3-0 at home last match and although that doesn’t look like much on paper, consider that it was a tough derby game that they’d won just once in their last three attempts at home and you’ll see that it means a little more, especially for morale. Sigma Olomouc have been catching up to Slavia Prague in these past few seasons and are now in the somewhat admirable position of being able to say that they’ve beaten them for three consecutive meetings, including a win in Prague last year. Don’t get me wrong here – there’s not masses of quality seperating the two sides – but they are actually the better side now so I don’t understand the odds favouring Slavia here. The only absence I’ve heard for Sigma is experienced defender Kucera as a doubt with injury but to be honest, the mediocre attack of Slavia shouldn’t trouble Sigma’s defence excessively and I quite fancy Sigma’s deadly trio of Petr, Sultes, and big target man Hubnik in attack to cause Slavia’s poor defence a lot more problems than Slavia will cause them today.
Look past the name of Slavia Prague here and consider for one second that Sigma Olomouc are currently a completely better side than Slavia Prague are. Whether you accept it or not, it’s still true; all we have to decide here is whether they’ll prove it or not. However, the odds are generous enough to take a chance on here so I certainly will take that chance today.
Verdict: Sigma Olomouc to win at 17/10.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Viikingit Helsinki vs PK-35 Helsinki – home win at 11/10.
Over the past few years, Viikingit have edged their derbies against PK-35 in the Ykkonen and they should be able to do so today. These two outfits are amongst the top five sides in the division so I expect a close game which the odds duly reflect. However, despite a recent down-turn in form for both sides, I would consider Viikingit as genuine contenders to win this game much more than I would PK-35. Why? Well, Viikingit haven’t won in two games now; admittedly it’s not a good record. Hell, they’ve not scored in either game; big problem! However, looking beyond the statistics – they’ve faced a strong defensive untit (OPS Oulu) who got lucky on the day and then travelled to face the best side in the division (RoPS Rovaniemi) and claimed a very respectable 0-0 draw. However, their opponents PK-35 continued with their all-or-nothing approach by bizarrely losing 3-1 at home to one of the most impotent sides in the division (Hameenlinna – not sure if they’ve ever scored three goals in a game before, to be honest!), which takes their record to three defeats from their past four games with their only victory coming at home to relegation favourites MP Mikkeli. PK-35’s squad rotation tactics appear to be finally falling flat with their defence playing like they’ve never seen one another before so I fear for their chances today, particularly because Viikingit are marginally the better side. Viikingit haven’t lost against PK-35 in their last seven meetings and have won five of them, including three out of three at home. PK-35 are the more potent of the two sides but tend to have a reckless approach to tactics which Viikingit should really take advantage of. Basically, a calm and composed display from the hosts should see them ease to a simple tactical victory here by one or two goals and the odds are good enough to take a chance on, particularly as PK-35 are particularly reliable when it comes to committing footballing suicide.
Verdict: Viikingit Helsinki to win at 11/10.
Panathinaikos vs Xanthi – half-time draw/full-time Panathinaikos at 5/2.
This is the first game of the Super League calendar and whilst it’s unquestionably a risky game to bet on for that reason alone, I do have my reasons, as ever. You see, Panathinaikos are very much a second-half team and they showed that perfectly well last season as they were actually drawing more home games at half-time than they were winning, which was over 50% of their games! Xanthi, meanwhile, averaged drawing in just under half of their away games in the Super League last season. Xanthi are nothing more than a resilient side; low-scoring at best. Well, what would you expect from a side with Nathan Ellington in attack?! Neither side has changed drastically over the summer although the acquisition of Sidney Govou from Olympique Lyonnais should aid Panathinaikos’ occaionally limited attack so they look their usual title-threatening selves. Xanthi know they’re not good enough to beat Panathinaikos; they’ll come here to keep them out and they should have some joy against a rusty Panathinaikos side, although they’re terrible away from home so they really should lose this game at somepoint!
Panathinaikos haven’t conceded at home to Xanthi since 2005 so this bet hinges on Panathinaikos not scoring in the first-half, basically. Considering that this is the start of the season and players will naturally be rusty, I think there’s a good chance of that happening. Panathinaikos have won their last two home games with Xanthi and have won the first-half of both of those games so approach with caution here but the odds should make it worthwhile today.
Verdict: Draw at half-time/Panathinaikos to win by full-time at 5/2.
Daugava Daugavpils vs Skonto Riga – lay Skonto Riga at 23/20.
The odds are shocking on Skonto Riga to win this game! I’ve no problem admitting that they’re the best side in Latvia and the acquisition of the likes of Junior have benefited them to no end but they’re not facing just some nameless mugs here like Jauniba or RFS/Olimps Riga; they’re facing a very good Daugava side. Daugava aren’t the giants that Skonto Riga, FK Ventspils, or Liepajas Metalurgs are currently but they were before they were docked points and thus a lot of their players left. Daugava are well on their way back to the top in Latvia and have been excellent in recent games. Skonto are leading Latvian football very well currently and you won’t find me going against them often but odds of 1/4 on them to win this game are outrageous. Daugava are good enough to hold them here which is why only Daugava and Skonto are unbeaten at home in the Virsliga this season. Hell, no side has conceded fewer goals at home than Daugava with an average of a goal conceded every four home games and although they don’t take a great interest in scoring goals themselves, they’re still a nightmare to play against.
To reiterate – yes, Skonto are the better side here, but there’s no way in hell I’d ever take them to win this game at laughable odds of 1/4. Daugava are a lot better than the bookies are giving them credit for here so my call is to lay the visitors today with tentative stakes.
Verdict: Lay Skonto Riga at 23/20.
Libertad Asuncion vs Guarani Asuncion – home win at 7/10.
It’s always hard to pick why you’re backing a side in a derby game because statistics don’t reveal too much. All you can be assured of in this Asunction derby between two of Paraguay’s biggest clubs is cards and goals. However, I’m basing this on one thing; Guarani are in Uruguay in a few days time in the Copa Sudamericana and will surely rest players here. Libertad are marginally the better side and should be able to take advantage of that tonight. They’re averaging scoring four goals per home game currently and have beaten Guarani at home for two out of Guarani’s last three visits so I fancy the home win tonight, although the odds are a bit shorter than I’d normally dabble with!
Verdict: Libertad Asuncion to win at 7/10.
Odra Wodzislaw vs Kluczbork – home win at 9/10.
Ok, Odra have a lot of problems off the field (more by the week – it’d be funny if it wasn’t such a sad state of affairs!) but they’re still a lot better than the odds shown here indicate. Their problems have galvanised them in recent times and their displays have been good. They lost 1-0 last match at a very good Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala side so the result isn’t too bad for a completely new and revamped side with half the quality that they had last year in the Ekstraklasa! They’re still a mid-table side in Liga 1 and are capable of beating at least the poorer sides in the division which is exactly what they’re facing today – a very poor Kluczbork side. You could argue that the visitors have been a tad unfortunate in some games this season but the bottom line is that they’re simply not a very good side. Let’s not forget that Odra have had a week to prepare for this game too, whereas their opponents lost the Polish Cup game at minnows Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki just a few days ago so they’re going to be tired because they don’t have a big enough squad to compete on various fronts; hell, they’ll be lucky to stay in Liga 1 this year!
Odra aren’t world-beaters but they’re a better side than odds of 9/10 reflect so my call here is the home win as they don’t appear to be letting their off-the-field issues bother them excessively, something noted from the fact that they’ve only lost away from home this season against a good home side and at home against promotion favourites Piast Gliwice.
Verdict: Odra Wodzislaw to win at 9/10.
Dinamo Bucharest vs Universitatea Cluj – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Could a team scream “over 2.5 goals” in each game more than Dinamo Bucharest are currently?! They average scoring over three goals per game and conceding two per game in their reckless search for a Liga title. They’re supposed to have a lot of problems but you can’t see it from their league displays thus far. They’ve already played two of the three sides that were promoted with Universitatea Cluj last season and have beaten them 5-3 (Sportul Studentesc at home) and 6-2 (Targu Mures away) respectively, bizarrely ending their game at Targu Mures last match with ten men following Moti’s dismissal, which means he misses this game. Ganea and Niculae look good in attack and whilst they’re in-form, Dinamo will score goals, basically. However, what they’ve also proven beyond any doubt is that they cannot defend, even against weak sides like Targu Mures and International Pandurii Targu Jiu! I’m both impressed and terrified by their all-out-attack “tactics” and although I expect Dinamo to win the game somewhat comfortably, the value here has to be in over 2.5 goals with the abvoe in mind.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Universidad de Chile, Deportivo Quito, PS Kemi Kings, Augsburg, Panathinaikos, Vasas Budapest, Liepajas Metalurgs, FK Ventspils, Cambuur Leeuwarden, Dinamo Bucharest, Lugano, The New Saints.
Recommended bets:
Sigma Olomouc & Augsburg at 3/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
UEFA Super Cup Final:
Internazionale vs Atletico Madrid (6) both sides to score, over 2.5 goals
Argentinian Primera Division:
Huracan vs Newells Old Boys (6) 1-1
Australian A-League:
Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix (4) 1-2, draw no bet
Austrian Liga 1:
St.Polten vs Lustenau (5) draw no bet
Hartberg vs WAC/St.Andra (6)
Gratkorn vs Grodig (4)
Austria Lustenau vs First Vienna (5)
Admira Wacker vs SCR Altach (6)
Chilean Primera Division:
Universidad de Chile vs Santiago Wanderers (8) over 2.5 goals
Croatian Prva Liga:
Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Osijek (5) 1-1
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Slavia Prague vs Sigma Olomouc (6) 1-2
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Deportivo Quito vs Olmedo Riobamba (8) under 2.5 goals
Manta vs Deportivo Cuenca (5) 0-0
English League One:
Colchester United vs Carlisle United (6)
English League Two:
Bradford City vs Southend United (7)
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
JJK Jyvaskyla vs FC Lahti (5) 2-1
Finnish Ykkonen:
KPV Kokkola vs Jippo Joensuu (6)
PS Kemi Kings vs HJK II (8)
Viikingit Helsinki vs PK-35 Helsinki (6)
French Ligue 2:
AC Ajaccio vs Metz (5) under 2.5 goals
Angers SCO vs Sedan-Ardennes (6)
Boulogne vs Istres (6)
Clermont Foot vs Le Havre (6)
Dijon FCO vs Nimes (5)
Nantes vs Vannes OC (7) under 2.5 goals
Reims vs Troyes (4)
Tours vs Stade Lavallois (6)
German Bundesliga:
Kaiserslautern vs Bayern Munich (7) 1-2
German Bundesliga 2:
Augsburg vs Paderborn (8)
Rot-Weiss Oberhausen vs FSV Frankfurt (5)
Erzgebirge Aue vs VfL Bochum (6)
Greek Super League:
Panathinaikos vs Xanthi (8) 2-0
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Vasas Budapest vs Siofok (8) 2-1
MTK Budapest vs Ujpest (6) 1-1
Latvian Virsliga:
Liepajas Metalurgs vs RFS/Olimps Riga (8) 2-0
FK Ventspils vs FK Jurmala (9) 3-1
Daugava Daugavpils vs Skonto Riga (5) 1-1
Mexican Primera Division:
Estudiantes Tecos vs Morelia (6) over 2.5 goals
Dutch Eredivisie:
Willem II vs Groningen (7) 1-2
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
RBC Roosendaal vs Sparta Rotterdam (7)
Zwolle vs Veendam (7)
Dordrecht ’90 vs Helmond Sport (6)
Eindhoven vs Fortuna Sittard (6)
Cambuur Leeuwarden vs AGOVV Appeldoorn (8)
Almere City vs Go Ahead Eagles (7)
Emmen vs MVV Maastricht (5)
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Libertad Asuncion vs Guarani Asuncion (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Korona Kielce vs Cracovia Krakow (4) 1-1
Legia Warsaw vs GKS Belchatow (7) 1-0
Polish Liga 1:
Gornik Polkowice vs Ruch Razionkow (5)
Odra Wodzislaw vs Kluczbork (6)
Romanian Liga:
Gaz Metan Medias vs Rapid Bucharest (6) 1-1
Dinamo Bucharest vs Universitatea Cluj (8) over 2.5 goals
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Real Valladolid vs Villarreal II (6)
Swedish Allsvenskan:
GAIS Goteborg vs Djurgarden (6) 1-1
Swiss Challenge League:
Lugano vs Locarno (8)
Schaffhausen vs Chiasso (6)
Turkish Super Lig:
Ankaragucu vs Kayserispor (6) 1-2
Gaziantepspor vs Konyaspor (5) 1-0
Ukrainian Premier League:
Sevastopol vs Vorskla Poltava (6) 0-0
Welsh Premier League:
Haverfordwest County vs Neath Athletic (5) 1-1
Port Talbot Town vs Carmarthen Town (6) 2-1
The New Saints vs Bala Town (8) Over 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!