Slavia Prague vs Viktoria Plzen
FreeToday’s featured game is the Gambrinus Liga encounter between fallen giants Slavia Prague and title contenders Viktoria Plzen. The hosts are going from bad to worse with impotent and immature displays whereas their impressive opponents are showing the complete opposite and should be taken very seriously indeed here.
I hadn’t considered Slavia Prague as title contenders this season after viewing their depleted squad but I didn’t think they’d be threatened by relegation either and yet if their recent displays are anything to go by then they have every cause for concern. Slavia’s defence is far too easy to breach as they lack composure on a really serious level. However, their most pressing problem has to be their inability to find the net on a consistent basis. If they hadn’t brought in Slovakian midfielder Karol Kisel this summer then I shudder to think what state they’d be in. His set pieces are utterly integral to the fallen giants’ footballing plans and that’s quite a sad thing to be able to say for such a big club. Jaroslav Cerny has played his part in midfield too but there’s too few match winners in this squad for my liking. Consider that ageing Stanislav Vicek is the only striker to have scored for Slavia Prague this season and that he’s only scored one and you’ll see the problem immediately. Hora has not developed as he’d been expected to and there’s basically too little talent in this side to cause problems. Slavia Prague are without a win for six consecutive Gambrinus Liga games whilst losing four times along the way, the most recent of which was a drubbing at a feisty but fairly predictable Slovacko side, losing 3-0. They lost the Prague derby at home to Sparta prior to that match and frankly look inept at the best of times. I look at this side and I don’t see where the goals are coming from so I can’t possibly take them seriously in this game.
Visitors Viktora Plzen continue to go from strength to strength and I just can’t see who is going to stop them. Logic says that they’ll come unstuck at somepoint but I can’t see anyone who can actually do it so it’s going to take a poor display from Viktoria Plzen to fail to maintain their current run of form. They even won at a very solid Jablonec side in their last away game, which was arguably the toughest trip that they had left to make this season and they did it well too. They’ve now won eight consecutive games in all competitions and although resilient Marila Pribram made them work for their victory last week, they still did manage the win. The players are naturally buoyant and star striker Jan Rezek is in the form of his life. Daniel Kolar is looking particularly inspired on the wing and is adding far more to the goals tally than I thought he would pre-season. There’s experience in this side and they’re incredibly well-organised too so don’t take them lightly here. Plzen have remarkably won five out of five on the road in the Gambrinus Liga this season and average scoring nearly three goals per game (both on the away games ratio and in general) whilst leaking just over a goal per every two away games, which is a fantastic record. This record can’t last forever but against a demoralised and impotent host, why should it stop today? Viktoria Plzen have plenty of ability and momentum in their play at the moment and I can’t see them surrendering to Slavia Prague today – they’re simply too good for them! Oh, and just in case you think motivation might be an issue via complacency – don’t forget that a good number of Viktoria Plzen’s players have either played for Slavia Prague or Sparta Prague so they really should show up today.
The change in Gambrinus Liga football was partially evident last season when Viktoria Plzen not only claimed a draw here but won the home game 4-2. Viktoria Plzen look stronger than ever and Slavia Prague look considerably worse here so we have to look beyond the names of both sides and consider for one moment that Viktoria Plzen are actually the better side, which I personally believe is true. The Gambrinus Liga is not a friend of the away win but odds of 27/20 on a superior and in-form side to win this game look good enough to take a chance on today.
Verdict: Viktoria Plzen to win at 27/20.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Mechelen vs Racing Genk – under 2.5 goals at evens.
I was eyeing up the away win here but I have no interest on odds shorter than 6/5 for this one. Mechelen are no mugs at home – nobody ever has an easy away game here – and Genk aren’t as good as the table says they are currently. Genk are going to drop points sometime but for now we have to stand in awe at their fabulous run of form. Star striker Jelle Vossen is already being scouted intensely by both Aston Villa and Everton if the rumours are correct as he’s bagged thirteen goals in nine appearances. Israeli striker partner Barda is also scoring a good number of goals to support him so it’s no surprise that Genk are scoring more goals than anyone else in the division currently with an average of three goals being scored per game. They’ve won four out of their last five games and confidence is high in the Genk camp and I expect them to give Mechelen a very tough game here. Nonetheless, Mechelen themselves are no strangers to hosting big sides and putting them in their place. Genk have only won once out of their last four visits to Mechelen and with Mechelen impressively only losing four out of fourteen at home last season in the Eerste Klasse proper, it’s hard to see Genk winning this one comfortably, particularly as they’re still unbeaten in five home games this season. Mechelen’s defence has been solid this season with just two goals conceded in five games and they’ve not come out scoring lots of goals so I expect quite a shrewd display from the hosts in this game, which should be enough to keep the scoreline under 2.5 goals.
Worryingly, this game has a history of going over 2.5 goals but I’m going against the trend here. I think Genk will probably do enough to win this one but the odds don’t interest me at all on the away win – Mechelen aren’t fools. I think Mechelen will look to keep it tight and Genk will just do enough to win but either way, I think under 2.5 goals represents better value than the away win tonight.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Inter Zapresic – away win with draw no bet at evens.
I feel quite sorry for Hrvatski Dragovoljac because it’s only misfortune that has them at the bottom of the Prva Liga currently. They played really well in their opening few games but a lack of finishing and some bad luck immediately saw the newly-promoted side nose-dive to the bottom of the table. They’re not a particularly talented side by any stretch of the imagination but they’re fairly well-organised and they work very hard so nobody has an easy ride against them. However, their general level of impotence and the fact that they’ve now lost four consecutive games in all competitions is sure to be getting to their morale so they should struggle tonight. I’d normally have fancied them to take three points from this game had they approached it in the zesty manner that they approached their first few Prva Liga games but I just don’t see how that can happen on the back of such a poor and goalless run. The other reason I’d fancy them is because Inter Zapresic aren’t a particularly good side but as it happens, they’re riding a wave of momentum and as a result they’re winning a lot of games. A 5-0 demolition of Lokomotiva Zagreb set them on their way and they’ve won four consecutive games in all competitions since then, including two away wins, which is virtually unheard of for financially-troubled Inter Zapresic. They heroically won at Sibenik last match, although it’s worth pointing out that Sibenik were missing a lot of players for that game. Nonetheless, Inter Zapresic are simply doing their job and they’re doing it well – they’re getting ahead in games and defending well so I have to give them their chances tonight. I’ve covered the away win with draw no bet because Inter really aren’t a very good side but their momentum and general displays should mean they at least get a draw here so I think the odds on the away win with draw no bet look quite intriguing here.
Verdict: Inter Zapresic to win with draw no bet at evens.
Vejle vs AB Copenhagen – away win with draw no bet at 11/10.
AB Copenhagen don’t have a good record at Vejle – not many sides do – but they have a decent opportunity to make amends today, in my opinion. Vejle rarely lose at home because they’re hard to beat, not because they’re a particularly good or incisive outfit. There is always rivalry between these two clubs because they’re both big clubs so approach with caution here. However, AB are a very potent side and Vejle are a stifling side so any kind of lead for AB in this game should see them at least draw the game. Vejle have only managed to win one out of their four home games this season, drawing the other three, whereas AB have won three out of four on the road and drew the other game so the opportunity is there for the away win. AB’s defence concerns me at times but Vejle’s attack really shouldn’t trouble them excessively here so I’m not too peturbed overall. I think that a competent AB Copenhagen display here will see them at least draw the game and with two consecutive wins leading them into this game, I think they’re playing well enough to steal an away win from watertight Vejle at decent odds.
Verdict: AB Copenhagen to win with draw no bet at 11/10.
PoPa Pori vs FC Espoo – lay PoPa Pori at 11/10.
I’m not a big fan of FC Espoo’s bunkur tactics but hey, what works, works! Despite only being promoted from the Kakkonen this season, FC Espoo have impressively only lost three away games out of eleven on the road in the Ykkonen. Only the bizarre Jippo Joensuu have conceded less on the road than FC Espoo have with today’s visitors averaging conceding less than a goal per away game. Even more impressively, FC Espoo have travelled to heavyweights Viikingit Helsinki, PK-35 Helsinki, and the best side in the division – RoPS Rovaniemi – without being beaten this season so they are worthy of your respect here. They’re not much threat in front of goal but they tend to do enough defensively to keep other sides out. Although PoPa Pori are one of the better sides in the Ykkonen, let’s not forget that they had their good run of form utterly blown apart by a rampant RoPS Rovaniemi in a long overdue 8-1 victory so they’re sure to have dropped their heads at least a little. PoPa’s record in Pori is strong, as you’d expect, but they’re facing a very well-organised side and I don’t think the odds reflect that anywhere near enough. PoPa are going to have to pick themselves up from that drubbing and play really well to break through their resilient opponents and I honestly don’t see what they’ll bring to this game that the other giants of the division haven’t tried already. For me, the value in this game is in laying the hosts are surprisingly generous odds of 11/10 although caution is obviously recommended as PoPa are good enough to beat most Ykkonen sides if they turn up although it’s worth noting that they actually lost at FC Espoo earlier this season…
Verdict: Lay PoPa Pori at 11/10.
Hannover 96 vs St.Pauli – home win at 23/20.
I think it’s safe to say that I’ve been impressed with Hannover 96 so far in the Bundesliga this season so I’ll stick my neck out and back them tonight. They’ve won four out of six Bundesliga games thus far and only a talented VfL Wolfsburg side has beaten them so far as a result. They’ve won two out of their three home games with only two second-half goals (one of which was in the last minute!) from giants Bayer 04 Leverkusen puncturing their 100% record with a 2-2 draw here. Hannover 96 weren’t upset by that though, and promptly smashed Werder Bremen 4-1 in their following home game so they’ve certainly got the bit between their teeth currently. They’ve won two consecutive games leading into this game and look very good indeed. Why is that? Well, my reasoning is simple; talented striker Mo Abdellaoue signed from Valerenga Oslo. The guy just lives and breathes goals as the fact that he’s scored four goals in six appearances for Hannover 96 since signing for them in summer proves all too well. He’s linked up well with Ivorian attacker Ya Konan and Hannover 96 look a much fresher outfit as a result. They’ve always been a hard side to beat at home but now they’re scoring goals, they look a lot more dangerous at the other end of the pitch too. They’ve brought in some experienced players over the summer too, like Carlitos from Basel, nutcase Pogatetz from Middlesbrough, and Beasley from Rangers, so Hannover 96 look quite well-prepared to cause a few upsets this season.
Visitors St.Pauli are sadly falling very short of the qualities required to be a Bundesliga side currently. I’ll hold my hands up and admit that they’ve done well to win two out of their three away games this season but who against – a poor SC Freiburg side that capitulated and conceded three goals in the last ten minutes of the game to lose 1-3 and a weak Borussia Moenchengladbach side? I admire the spirit of St.Pauli that keeps them plugging away at sides despite knowing they’re not as good as the vast majority of their opponents. However, when they face a side that has good finishers in their ranks then they tend to lose as a 1-3 defeat at home to BV09 Borussia Dortmund proved last match. St.Pauli have some experienced players in their team i.e. Asamoah, Bruns, Boll etc. which is very good indeed for them. However, on the ability front, they’re really lacking and it’s showing with goals being conceded too easily and not enough goals being scored. I can’t see a happy ending to the St.Pauli promotion story this season barring some miraculous signings in January and although they’re playing well enough to give Hannover 96 a game tonight, I don’t see them leaving with any points given their lack of ability.
I think this game will probably end in a closer scoreline than the Bundesliga table would have you imagine pre-match but I still think Hannover 96 have much more momentum and a continued sense of potency to not win this one. Hannover 96 simply have better players and in front of their own fans, where they’re traditionally strongest, I think they should win this one and that the odds are good enough to take a chance on.
Verdict: Hannover 96 to win at 23/20.
Ferencvaros vs MTK Budapest – home win at 11/10.
I love backing Ferencvaros at home because they play like all of Hungary is against them, which is probably some form of built-in paranoia due to them being the biggest club in Hungary. However, the problem with that is that they tend to lose their cool sometimes and have men dismissed rather stupidly. Consider their game at home to Budapest Honved, for example. They fell behind early in the game and that lead was increased to 0-3 after just thirty-three minutes so what did Ferenvaros do? They had Stanic dismissed and thus ended their chance of a comeback, a comeback which was on the cards as they scored very early in the second-half but couldn’t build on it due to a lack of men on the field. Ferencvaros will also slip up at home to lowly sides that don’t have a rivalry with them because Ferencvaros (for some reason) only seem to like being motivated to play big sides.
Happily, they’re hosting a big side today; MTK Budapest. Ferenvaros showed what they can do against good sides by crushing Gyori ETO FC 3-0 here a couple of weeks ago and as long as they don’t lose their heads in this rivalry match, Ferencvaros should be able to inflict another home win today. Ferencvaros have won two consecutive games leading into this one, including a particularly impressive 3-1 win at high-flying Vasas Budapest so morale is high in the Ferencvaros camp currently. They can’t defend for shit, worryingly enough, but they tend to have enough in front of goal with experienced Czech attacker Marek Heinz and Maltese midfielder Andre Schembri doing plenty of damage although Ferencvaros really need Junior to shape up in attack to give them a further option.
MTK Budapest are playing well enough to give Ferencvaros a game here, however. They’re very much a feeder club in Hungary, which is unfortunate as they do tend to produce good academy players but obviously have to sell them on. I like MTK Budapest because not only can they be very clinical in front of goal but they also defend well too, which doesn’t often happen in Hungary, even for giants Debreceni VSC. The star of MTK’s current crop of youngsters is striker Patrik Tischler, who has notched up five goals in seven appearances so Ferencvaros really need to keep an eye on him today. MTK didn’t have a lot of joy against Ferencvaros last year in the Soproni Liga, however – they lost the away game and drew the home game – so they may just be a little uneasy here despite a good start to the current Soproni Liga campaign.
The foundation behind my bet today, however, is the bizarre motivation levels that Ferencvaros tend to have for big games – they always seem to turn up, as if it was their Cup Final! I expect that to play a part tonight and if they keep their heads then they have enough going forward to punish a youthful MTK Budapest side who defend well on the road but rarely trouble their opponents’ at the other end of the field away from home.
Verdict: Ferencvaros to win at 11/10.
Liepajas Metalurgs vs Daugava Daugavpils – lay Liepajas Metalurgs at 8/5.
The bookies are occasionally guilting of giving Virsliga giants odds that they don’t deserve and that’s the case today for me. Liepajas Metalurgs aren’t as good as FK Ventspils or Skonto Riga but they’re not far away either so I can usually understand the bookies giving odds of 1/4 on wins, for example. However, 2/5 for them to beat Daugava Daugavpils is an absolute joke! Daugava are incredibly well-organised in defence and would have been where Liepajas Metalurgs are now (if not higher!) had they not been brought to justice for cheating and had points deducted etc. in seasons gone by. Daugava are very much a side that considers themselves to be as good as the other sides at the top of the Virsliga tree and whereas I’d agree that they’re better than most sides in the division, I don’t think they’re quite at that level yet. However, the foundations are there as the fact that they’ve only lost two out of ten on the road this season indicates all too well. Daugava actually won at Liepajas Metalurgs back in April and held them to a 1-1 draw at home in May so you’d think the bookies would have realised by now that Daugava are a better side than they give them credit for. Nonetheless, I’m happy to take advantage of the ludicrously good odds on show here today for laying the hosts. I’m not saying this is a banker; I’m saying that Liepajas should not be shorter than 8/11 to win this game at any point, irrespective of their good form – Daugava lose very few games because they’re so good defesively so my call is to lay Liepajas Metalurgs today.
Verdict: Lay Liepajas Metalurgs at 8/5.
AGOVV Appeldoorn vs RBC Roosendaal – away win with draw no bet at evens.
I mentioned a few weeks ago about how badly the Dutch Eerste Divisie was hit financially this summer and that AGOVV Appeldoorn were one of the worst hit with a mass exodus of their players leaving being the icing on the cake. Well, their form is beginning to finally show the damage that has been done with four consecutive defeats, including a 0-3 humiliation against Dordrecht ’90 in their last home game. They’ve now lost three out of four at home in the Eerste Divisie because they concede more goals at home than any other side in the division (over two goals per home game currently) and naturally don’t score enough to counter that. Morale is low as a result and although RBC Roosendaal aren’t world beaters themselves, they’re still in much better condition than AGOVV are at the moment. RBC have actually strung some wins together with uninspired but effectual displays. They’ve won back-to-back Eerste Divisie games at home to Go Ahead Eagles and away against Telstar respectively so morale is high for the visitors and they’ve got their much-needed momentum to take into this game which allows me to overlook their general impotence in front of goal! RBC are good enough defensively to keep a mediocre AGOVV side out; the question is whether they’ll take their momentum by the scruff of the neck and use it to start scoring goals on a regular basis or not. They’ve managed to score four in their last two Eerste Divisie games so I’m going to give them the benefit of the doubt here and take the away win with draw no bet at evens because I can’t see an unprepared, player-less, and inept AGOVV side taking anything more than a draw from this game.
Verdict: RBC Roosendaal to win with draw no bet at evens.
Dinamo Bucharest vs Otelul Galati – lay Dinamo Bucharest at 6/5.
This should be an utterly fascinating game because Dinamo Bucharest are the better of these two sides but it’s Otelul Galati who currently top the table, surprisingly enough. Dinamo Bucharest are currently one of the best sides in Romania; that fact cannot be disputed. What can be disputed, however, is the cohesion between the players. Dinamo have some fantastic individuals and the fact that they score more goals than any other club in Romania indicates that all too well, in my opinion. They average scoring approximately 2.5 goals per game because the likes of Niculae, Cristea, and Ganea know how to find the net in the Liga. However, what has been made increasingly apparent is that they simply cannot defend! They’ve leaked eleven goals in their past five Liga games and nobody else in the division can better their horrific record of averaging conceding over two goals per game, even the newly-promoted sides! In fact, the newly-promoted sides have scored nine goals against Dinamo Bucharest so far this season and Dinamo have only played three of them! This should give you an idea of how bad the Dinamo Bucharest schoolboy defending actually is. Defeat at playerless and financially-ruined Unirea Urziceni last match takes Dinamo’s record to four games without a win and with three of those games resulting in defeat, things don’t look good for the hosts.
However, visitors Otelul Galati look in prime position to take something from this game today. A win at home to Dinamo’s bitter rivals Steaua Bucharest at weekend has given Otelul yet another timely boost mentally and they have to be taken seriously as a result. They’re not title contenders; they don’t have the firepower to be title contenders. However, what they are and have been for many years is a side that is very hard to beat. Generally speaking, that is far more evident in their home record. However, they’ve avoided defeat in two out of their four away games so far this season so they’re starting to show at least some signs of playing better on the road, particularly as one of those games was at potent giants Rapid Bucharest. Amusingly enough, Otelul actually won at Dinamo in the Liga last season and I wouldn’t be surprised if the 0-1 scoreline from that game was emulated today. Otelul are incredibly hard to beat and they’re facing a demoralised host so why not again today?
My big fear here is that the game develops into a “samba” free-for-all. If that happens, Dinamo Bucharest will win the game because they have far more firepower than Otelul Galati do. However, if Otelul play their tactical game, harass their opponents, and take an early lead, then the Dinamo ultras will not be impressed and the players’ morale will drop even further and thus I wouldn’t see Dinamo winning the game. Otelul are good enough to hold Dinamo here but Dinamo are a lot better than Otelul when it comes to finding the net so this bet will either come in or be a cricket score for the superior hosts, depending on which Dinamo side turns up! However, the value for me is in laying Dinamo – they have far too many problems both on and off the field currently for me to take them seriously here.
Verdict: Lay Dinamo Bucharest at 6/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Admira Wacker, Bohemians, Skonto Riga, Sparta Rotterdam.
Recommended bets:
Bohemians and Viktoria Plzen at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Quilmes vs Arsenal de Sarandi (6) under 2.5 goals
Newells Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield (6) under 2.5 goals
Australian A-League:
Gold Coast United vs Wellington Phoenix (5) 2-1
Austrian Liga 1:
Hartberg vs Admira Wacker (8)
Gratkorn vs St.Polten (3) draw no bet
First Vienna vs WAC/St.Andra (5) over 2.5 goals
Grodig vs Lustenau (6)
Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach (5)
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Mechelen vs Racing Genk (6) under 2.5 goals
Chilean Primera Division:
Audax Italiano vs Huachipato (7) over 2.5 goals
Union San Felipe vs Universidad de Chile (4) 1-1
Croatian Prva Liga:
Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Inter Zapresic (5) 0-1, draw no bet
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Slavia Prague vs Viktoria Plzen (6) 1-2
Danish 1st Division:
Vejle vs AB Copenhagen (6) draw no bet
Finnish Ykkonen:
PoPa Pori vs FC Espoo (4)
Hameenlinna vs OPS Oulu (5)
French Ligue 2:
AC Ajaccio vs Nantes (5) under 2.5 goals
Angers SCO vs Stade Lavallois (6) under 2.5 goals
Boulogne vs Le Havre (6)
Chateauroux vs Reims (6)
Clermont Foot vs Evian Thonon Gaillard (6) over 2.5 goals
Dijon FCO vs Troyes (4)
Grenoble Foot vs Vannes OC (5)
Nimes vs Le Mans (6)
Sedan-Ardennes vs Istres (7)
German Bundesliga:
Hannover 96 vs St.Pauli (7) over 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga 2:
Paderborn vs Arminia Bielefeld (4) under 2.5 goals
MSV Duisburg vs Rot-Weiss Oberhausen (6)
Ingolstadt vs Karlsruher SC (5) draw no bet
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Lombard Papa vs Fehervar (4) 1-1
Ferencvaros vs MTK Budapest (6) over 2.5 goals
Irish Premier League:
Bohemians vs Bray Wanderers (8) both sides to score
Dundalk vs Galway United (7) 2-1
UCD vs Shamrock Rovers (7) 0-1
Italian Serie B:
Ascoli vs Livorno (4) draw no bet
Latvian Virsliga:
Skonto Riga vs Jelgava (9) -1.5 handicap
Liepajas Metalurgs vs Daugava Daugavpils (4) under 2.5 goals
Mexican Primera Division:
Estudiantes Tecos vs Jaguares (6) 1-1
Dutch Eredivisie:
Vitesse Arnhem vs Willem II (6) 2-1
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
AGOVV Appeldoorn vs RBC Roosendaal (6)
Go Ahead Eagles vs Dordrecht ’90 (5)
Sparta Rotterdam vs Volendam (8) over 2.5 goals
Veendam vs Eindhoven (6)
RKC Waalwijk vs Zwolle (7) under 2.5 goals
Den Bosch vs Emmen (5)
Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur Leeuwarden (7)
Telstar vs MVV Maastricht (5) under 2.5 goals
Helmond Sport vs Almere City (7)
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Polonia Bytom vs Widzew Lodz (6) 1-1
Wisla Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw (7) over 2.5 goals
Polish Liga 1:
Gornik Polkowice vs Katowice (4)
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Uniao de Leiria vs Academica de Coimbra (6) 1-1
Romanian Liga:
Astra Ploiesti vs Pandurii Targu Jiu (6) under 2.5 goals
Universitatea Craiova vs Universitatea Cluj (6) 2-1
Dinamo Bucharest vs Otelul Galati (5) 1-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Villarreal II vs Salamanca (5)
Swedish Superettan:
IFK Norrkoping vs Falkenberg (6) both sides to score
Swiss Super League:
Bellinzona vs St.Gallen (6) 2-1
Turkish Super Lig:
Karabukspor vs Galatasaray (7) 1-2
Bucaspor vs Eskisehirspor (5) under 2.5 goals
Ukrainian Premier League:
Metalurg Zaporizhya vs Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk (6) 0-1
Welsh Premier League:
Llanelli vs Neath Athletic (7) 2-1
Port Talbot Town vs Haverfordwest County (6) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!