Hamburger SV vs VFL Wolfsburg
FreeToday’s featured game is the Bundesliga encounter between Hamburger SV and VFL Wolfsburg. Hamburg have won three out of their last five games and although they’re not quite firing on all cylinders just yet, they remain a potent force that are gradually being reintroduced. Visitors VFL Wolfsburg enter this game having sacked Manager Veh following some horrendous results so the visitors have no Manager ahead of this tough trip.
Hosts Hamburger SV have won three out of their last four games with their only blemish on that record being their defeat against BV09 Borussia Dortmund last match. Hamburg weren’t overly convincing in this game with some key areas needing a bit of work i.e. creativity in the middle of the park. However, Hamburg remain a good side, particularly at home with a record of six wins, two draws, and just two defeats at home all season. Hamburg average scoring nearly two goals per home game and only Bayer 04 Leverkusen, BV09 Borussia Dortmund, and FSV Mainz 05 have conceded less goals than they have at home this season. Ruud Van Nistelrooy has the chance to debutise for Hamburg following his signature recently from Real Madrid and he’ll be welcome as Hamburg are lacking some incision in attack on occasion. Overall – Hamburg are looking to be in a decent place ahead of their clash with reigning champions Wolfsburg tonight.
Visitors Wolfsburg are a side that I’ve personally never been fully convinced by. Why? Well, I don’t think they’re good enough to be the champions of Germany, for starters. They’re a good hard-working side and enjoy scoring goals but their defending is absolutely atrocious! Only bottom club Hertha HSC Berlin have conceded more goals than Wolfsburg have in the Bundesliga this season and they’ve only conceded one more than tonight’s visitors! Wolfsburg have a decent away record in that they’ve only lost two away games out of nine this season but their performances of late have been poor with no wins in their past seven Bundesliga games, losing four times and drawing three times. Wolfsburg still enjoy scoring goals but a record that shows eighteen goals have been conceded in their past seven games, which is an average of over 2.5 goals conceded per game, which naturally isn’t good enough. Wolfsburg carry no momentum into this game and a lack of Manager could cause serious problems for the visitors tonight.
I rate Hamburg as the better of these two sides and they’ve certainly got enough in their favour to prove me right tonight. My only concern would be if Wolfsburg turn up due to the weight having been lifted from their shoulders following the dismissal of Manager Veh but that’s quite a long shot. Ultimately, Hamburg are a good home side and have enough firepower to make the home win look good value tonight.
Verdict: Hamburger SV to win at 4/5.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Greuther Furth vs Energie Cottbus – home win at 4/5.
Hosts Greuther Furth are beginning to show some of the potential that they showed last season by winning their last two games consecutively in emphatic fashion, scoring an average of four goals per game and without conceding a goal. Only third-placed Augsburg have scored more goals at home this season than Greuther Furth, who average scoring over two goals per home game. Greuther Furth’s problems this season have largely stemmed from poor defending, something that is evident from the fact that only bottom-club Rot-Weiss Ahlen have conceded more goals at home than they have. However, recent momentum appears to have worryingly strengthened their attack further still and also granted them the ability to keep a clean sheet so it’s certainly worth your time to not understimate the hosts tonight.
Visitors Energie Cottbus are a good side but simply don’t appear to enjoy showing it. They’ve lost four out of ten away games this season, winning just twice along the way, but average conceding nearly two goals per away game, which makes them one of the worst conceding away sides in the Bundesliga 2. Currently languishing in thirteenth place, Energie Cottbus are struggling to adapt to life in the Bundesliga 2 following relegation from the Bundesliga last year. Two consecutive defeats entering this game whilst scoring just once and conceding four times emphasises the above point perfectly as both sides were sides that Energie Cottbus should not be losing to, in my opinion.
Ultimately, a side like Energie Cottbus can be good but a lack of momentum should leave them with a toothless display. However, a strong momentum has now sprung up in the Greuther Furth camp and they’re absolutely on fire as a result of it so the home win looks a good enough value bet today.
Verdict: Greuther Furth to win at 4/5.
Koblenz vs Fortuna Dusseldorf – away win at 10/11.
Koblenz enter this game on the back of five defeats in their last six games so momentum isn’t even a word in their vocabulary currently. A quick look at their statistics over the last six games easily illustrates just why this is; seventeen goals in six Bundesliga 2 games, which is an average of nearly three goals conceded per game. Koblenz do tend to average scoring a goal per game but they’re just a woeful side that almost every opponent they encounter rips apart. Koblenz have lost two out of their last three home games, taking their tally to five defeats in ten home games this season. Koblenz are one of the biggest conceders in the division at home and only the two clubs below them in the table have scored less than they have at home. Ultimately – Koblenz look superb cannon fodder tonight for Fortuna Dusseldorf if the visitors can take their chances.
Visitors Fortuna Dusseldorf are not a good away side so please don’t make the mistake of thinking that they are! The reason they win their home games is because they’re incredibly efficient, not because they’re prolific. On the road, Fortuna do tend to both score and concede so it’s no great surprise to learn that they’ve only won two out of their nine away games this season. Fortuna have lost five out of those nine games and generally look rather weak on the road. However, I’m taking a gamble on then fact that their poor away record will be ever-so-slightly increased tonight against a woeful Koblenz, particularly with the momentum behind them of three wins in their past five games.
I can’t deny that this bet is risky because Fortuna can disappoint on the road but ultimately anyone is fair game to beat Koblenz at the moment so I do feel that there’s value in the away win.
Verdict: Fortuna Dusseldorf to win at 10/11.
Eindhoven vs Cambuur Leeuwarden – away win at 5/6.
Hosts Eindhoven are on one of those crazy runs that I love about them. They’ve won four consecutive games and are scoring goals for fun. They’re not good enough to maintain it – ever – but they’re fun to back when they’re playing well because they score an awful lot of goals. However, the only one of those games that I was partially surprised by was their win at Go Ahead Eagles; the other results I can accept that they’re capable of. The fact is, however, that Eindhoven simply aren’t a very good side. Make no mistake – Eindhoven don’t make life easy for any of their opponents with the vast quantity of goals that they score. However, they let themselves down immensely with some atrocious defending which is why better clubs tend to beat them more often than not. Nobody in the Eerste Divisie has conceded as many goals at home as Eindhoven have this season with a tally of nearly three goals conceded per game so the hosts are going to have to score a hell of a lot of goals to overcome a potent and strong Cambuur Leeuwarden today!
Visitors Cambuur Leeuwarden are just one of those sides that are too good for little Eindhoven. There’s a reason that Cambuur have won nine out of twelve away games this season and that’s because they’re one of the best sides in the division. No other side can get near that away record, particularly not with the outlandish goalscoring ratio of over three goals scored per away game. Cambuur like to concede goals just like Eindhoven but there’s such a quality mismatch here that the visitors have to be favourites here. Cambuur have won their last three games consecutively so their momenum is strong and their potency is unquestionable. With that in mind, I find it hard to see any reason why Cambuur shouldn’t win this game convincingly with an awful lot of goals being scored by both sides in the process!
Verdict: Cambuur Leeuwarden to win at 5/6.
Antalyaspor vs Besiktas JK – home win at 12/5.
Hosts Antalyaspor have impressed me this season, particularly at home. They’ve only been beaten once here all season and have won five out of their eight home games. They average scoring two goals per home game and only a handful of Super Lig sides have conceded less goals than they have at home this season. Antalyaspor enter this game with some good momentum too following four wins out of their last six games in all competitions, drawing the other two games. Antalyaspor have slammed four goals past Fenerbahce, won at Kayserispor, and even won convincingly at Ankaraspor in their last few games so they’re certainly on fire at the moment. It took a monumental effort from Galatasaray to win here 3-2, who were the only side to do so here this season, so Antalyaspor will make life very difficult indeed for Besiktas JK and they have enough in their arsenal to cause an upset here.
Besiktas JK have won just once in their last eight games, which leaves their momentum somewhat dry! They’re a good side but they tend to be more efficient than prolific which means that when their luck dries up, so do the wins. The only win they’ve managed of late was a home win in the cup against lowly Konya Seker SK. Besiktas JK have lost their last two away games against sides they shouldn’t be losing against and have lost their last two games against sides that they shouldn’t be losing against, although I accept that the game with Bursaspor was a difficult one. Bluntly, Besiktas JK are struggling to break sides down and are struggling to keep sides out – two very crippling issues, particularly when fused together. There’s more problems at Besiktas JK than meet the eye and I think they’re looking ripe to be put to the sword by a difficult Antalyaspor tonight.
Although I can’t argue the case that Antalyaspor are better than Besiktas JK (because they’re not) what I can argue is that they’re far better placed to win than their visitors. Momentum and home advantage should be key here and I think Antalyaspor are capable of causing an upset today. Let’s face it – the odds are bloody good value for this outcome so it’s got to be worth a punt!
Verdict: Antalyaspor to win at 12/5.
Recommended bets:
Estudiantes De La Plata, Stade Malherbe de Caen, Greuther Furth, and Hamburger SV at 8/1.
AGOVV Appeldoorn, Volendam, Cambuur Leeuwarden, and Willem II at 7/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs Gimnasia De La Plata (5) 1-0
Estudiantes De La Plata vs Arsenal de Sarandi (8) 2-0
Australian A-League:
Gold Coast United vs Melbourne Victory (5) 2-2
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Germinal Beerschot vs Anderlecht (8) 1-2
French Ligue 2:
Strasbourg vs AC Ajaccio (4)
Nimes vs Dijon FCO (6)
Tours vs Laval (6)
Bastia vs Metz (6)
Clermont Foot vs Sedan-Ardennes (6)
Stade Malherbe de Caen vs Chateauroux (8)
Angers SCO vs Le Havre (5)
Istres vs Nantes (6)
German Bundesliga:
Hamburger SV vs VFL Wolfsburg (8) over 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga 2:
Greuther Furth vs Energie Cottbus (7)
MSV Duisburg vs St.Pauli (5) over 2.5 goals
Koblenz vs Fortuna Dusseldorf (6)
Dutch Eredivisie:
Willem II vs RKC Waalwijk (6) over 2.5 goals
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
AGOVV Appeldoorn vs Emmen (8)
Veendam vs Oss (7)
Dordrecht ’90 vs De Graafschap (6)
Eindhoven vs Cambuur Leeuwarden (7)
Omniworld vs Helmond Sport (6)
Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard (8)
MVV Maastricht vs Zwolle (5)
RBC Roosendaal vs Excelsior (6)
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Sporting Braga vs Sporting Clube de Lisboa (7) 1-0
Turkish Super Lig:
Antalyaspor vs Besiktas JK (6) 2-1
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Real Esppor Club vs Deportivo Tachira (5) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!