Fulham vs Liverpool
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Today’s secondary featured game is the English Premier League game between Fulham and Liverpool.
Hosts Fulham have earned a reputation of the years of being hard to beat at Craven Cottage and that’s still the case now. However, I think it’s fair to observe that they’re not playing particularly well under Martin Jol and they’re certainly not scoring many goals, either. The return of Johnson and Zamora has boosted their offensive threat but they just don’t create enough chances and subsequently don’t score enough goals. They’ve looked quite composed at the back in recent times, Fulham, but they’re far from impregnable. The problem with Fulham is that they’re very tenacious – if the opposing side doesn’t match that (or better it) then they won’t get a result here. Fulham are not a side to underestimate but they’re not at the top of their game right now, in my opinion, and that could cost them tonight.
Visitors Liverpool have done very well away from home lately. They’ve actually won their last four away games in the Premier League, counter-attacking with superb efficiency and with Luis Suarez in great form, it’s no surprise that they’ve been picking up points on the road. They’re now unbeaten in seven consecutive games in all competitions and for me, this Liverpool side has taken a massive stride forward compared to where they’ve been in previous years. They look more composed and more effective and frankly dangerous as a result. I’d have not touched Liverpool winning at Fulham for the past few years but I think they’ll do it tonight.
My sole concern for Liverpool is that their fixture list is becoming rather cramped and they’re not giving star Suarez a break, which means he’ll crash and burn at somepoint. They need to rest him but they don’t have the luxury of being able to do it but hopefully they’ll not experience burn-out tonight. If they play as well tonight as they have done in their other away games lately then 11/10 on the away win appeals to me here.
Verdict: Liverpool to win at 11/10.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, please find my value tips listed below in no particular order:
Dinamo Bucharest vs Steaua Bucharest – home win at evens.
If this wasn’t a derby then I’d be heavily involved on the Dinamo win but as it is a derby, I’d recommend approaching this one with a bit of caution.
That said, I still fancy Dinamo an awful lot here. I didn’t think they’d be as good as they’ve been this season due to the players that they’ve lost. The sale of Torje was a massive blow for them and considering the players that they lost at the start of 2011 (e.g. the two Cristeas) you could have been forgiven for thinking that side was ruined. Dinamo have never been good defensively, only offensively, and losing that attacking power should have done them more damage than it has.
However, it’s actually galvanised Dinamo Bucharest and they look really, really good for it. How on earth Dinamo have only conceded once at home this season I simply don’t know but ex-defender Cibotariu must take the credit for making a squad out of a bunch of insane attackers! They’re playing football in a much smarter way, catering to the needs of Niculae and Danciulescu up front, neither of which are particularly mobile nowadays but they’re both lethal finishers on their day. Bakaj has come out of his shell whilst Rus, Alexe, Munteanu, and Kone have all looked really good. This Dinamo side has gelled really well and they look so good for it that I’m actually quite happy to back them here despite their lack of stars!
Visitors Steaua, by stark contrast, are just horrendous. They have no firepower whatsoever in their squad barring Tatu on a good day, who is actually absent for this game anyway. They were an under 2.5 goals side last season as their defence held things together for them but even that aspect of their game has gone out of the window this season. I’d not be fooled by their recent results – Steaua are not playing well and relegation boss Ilie Stan doesn’t appear to be the man to steer them toward glory. What can he do, though? There’s simply not enough quality in Steaua’s ranks nowadays with only Tanase able to make something happen sporadically and no quality on the flanks. Steaua are a shadow of the side that they used to be and should really lose this game when you compare the difference in squad cohesion between the two clubs.
Of course, this is a derby, which means that a 0-5 Steaua win is a possibility, strangely enough. However, for me, there’s a lot of value on Dinamo winning this one at evens because they look much better and have a far more potent attack than Steaua do. Steaua have lost four out of their last five away games against Dinamo in the Liga and I expect another home win today too.
Verdict: Dinamo Bucharest to win at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Lazio, AEK Larnaca, Besiktas JK.
Recommended bets:
Liverpool, AEK Larnaca, and Lazio at 2/1.
Dinamo Bucharest, Besiktas JK, and AEK Larnaca at just below 2/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Cypriot Division 1:
AEK Larnaca vs Ermis (8) 2-0
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Slovacko vs Mlada Boleslav (5) 0-1
Danish Superligaen:
SonderjyskE vs OB Odense (6) 1-1
English Premier League:
Fulham vs Liverpool (6) 0-1
Italian Serie A:
Lazio vs Novara (8) 2-1
Macedonian First League:
Ohrid vs Shkendija 79 (7) 0-1
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Olimpia Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion (5) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warsaw (5) 1-1
Romanian Liga:
Dinamo Bucharest vs Steaua Bucharest (7) 2-0, at least one red card in this game
Spanish Primera Liga:
Sevilla CF vs Getafe (4) 1-1
Swiss Challenge League:
Biel-Bienne vs Winterthur (6)
Turkish Super Lig:
Besiktas JK vs Orduspor (8) 2-1
Ukrainian Premier League:
Dynamo Kiev vs Metalurg Donetsk (7) 1-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!