Germany vs England
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Today’s featured game is the World Cup second round match between old enemies England and Germany. I don’t need to remind you of the history between these two sides, nor how much this game means, but it’ll be interesting to see all of your thoughts on this game as a lot of our viewers are from England and Germany so feel free to post comments below.
Germany impressed during their opening World Cup game by annihlating Australia 4-0. I liked how well they set themselves up against the Aussies and although the Aussies contributed to their own downfall, credit must be given to the Germans for the swift and effective attacking ability. Since that game, they’ve suffered a surprised defeat against Serbia after some bizarre refereeing left them without their only good striker, Miroslav Klose, after just thirty minutes due to a red card. Duly, Serbia punished Germany with their numerical advantage and won the game. Germany then faced Ghana in their final game knowing that a win would see them enter the second round and they just about managed to do so in a scrappy win, although it’s fair to say that they lack bite in attack without Klose playing.
What to make of Germany overall? I admire their enthusiasm, blend of youth and experience, their talent, and their ability to grind out results. They’ve got an excellent goalkeeper in Neuer, who should be at the top of the European game for years to come. Their defence is fairly solid although is suspect against pace. Germany’s dominance, however, comes from central midfield, which is perhaps a little surprising without the talismanic Michael Ballack playing for them. The combination of Ozil and Schweinsteiger has worked very well indeed and as a result, Germany have been able to penetrate sides well, particularly with the brilliance of emerging playmaker Ozil. Germany are quick down the flanks and do everything they can to support their strikers, which is useful because their attack is easily the weakest point of their team, in my eyes. Seriously, who have they got? Klose, who hasn’t played enough football this season, Podolski, who has already bottled his path to glory, Gomez, who has no great ability, Cacau, who is average and inexperienced at this level, and Kiessling, who isn’t proven at this level. It’s not overly convincing, is it? Chances are that Germany can ride this lack-of-attacking-option problem until they face a really good side defensively but I doubt that they’ll have that problem today as they’re facing a nervous and relatively unfamiliar England defence. However, the driving runs from midfield should cause England nightmares today and I expect their relentless onslaught to yield at least one goal today.
The important thing to remember about England at all times is that they’re a momentum side. They play entirely on confidence, which is not only very dangerous but also rather worrying for ourselves as fans. England are notorious bottlers at big tournaments and this is the kind of game where it could be seen. The intense pressure from the fans at home, the expectation on England to win the World Cup after such a lengthy period of time without it, and the desire to see England beat Germany will give England a lot of nerves today. Those nerves will either cause massive problems in the side or cause an inspirational display. In the past, games with Germany have tended to be superb or horrific depending on which of the above is relevant, although the 5-1 hammering of Germany in Germany (nearly ten years ago now!) is one that every England fan remembers well and fervently hopes to see again one day, preferably today!
Will it happen today? I don’t honestly know. England have demonstrated that they know how to play well as their displays against USA and Slovenia both indicated, irrespective of the results in both games. We’ll have to chalk the Algeria display down to a one-off performance but England overall look quite good and they do have an outstanding manager so here’s to hoping! England have created a lot of chances when they’ve played well but have struggled to take them, something I put down to either nerves or misfortune more than anything, so it’s not something I’d read too much into – yet.
As much as Germany have problems in attack, England have problems in defence. We’re going to need their impotence and they’re going to need our nerves for either side to triumph in that battle today! The likes of Upson in central defence for England simply doesn’t work. He got away with his mistakes against an abject Slovenia side but he won’t get away with them in a fierce rivalry match like this. I worry for England’s central defence as a result, not to mention their indecisive and unconvincing full-backs, both of which are infinitely better at going forwards than defending. However, the same can be said for the German full-backs and England at least boast relatively complete side after that so we should see a very interesting game today.
I wonder if England would be better going all-out to beat Germany here because we can’t defend well but the Germans aren’t too convincing themselves at the back. Both sides much prefer to attack so hopefully we’ll see a fantastic game of football here. Whoever occupies England’s holding midfield role will decide if England win this game or not – nullify their central midfield and England have a great chance to win this game. England need to take their chances in front of goal but if they do then they have a real chance of winning this one today. The motivation behind the English team is massive because of the importance of the game so I do think England will score today as a result. Will they win? I simply don’t know – the bookies appear to be spot on here because I can’t split them either.
However, I do think there’s value in both sides scoring in this game. What little else I like is listed below but you’re a braver man than me if you back a winner here.
Verdict: Both teams to score at 19/20.
Other bets I like:
Ozil to score anytime at 23/10.
England to receive the first yellow card at 19/20.
COME ON ENGLAND!
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Argentina vs Mexico – both teams to score at 11/10.
I think this one speaks for itself, really. A lot more people have been impressed by Argentina than I have but that’s fair enough – people are always drawn to big names and high goalscoring. I mentioned pre-World Cup that they’d be made to look better than they are by facing an average group and sure enough, that’s exactly what’s happened. Everyone is still overlooking how inept Argentina are in defence and how much that has been proven in every game that they’ve played in the World Cup thus far! The scorelines haven’t reflected it en mass, admittedly, but the displays certainly have. Hell, even lone striker Samaras for Greece last match had Demichelis in his pocket despite having no support! Mexico aren’t the most clinical of sides but they’re creative and Argentina’s defence is bad enough to concede so I can see Mexico scoring here.
However, I will admit Argentina have taken their chances well in this tournament and of course, they boast a wealth of attacking options with the likes of Messi, Higuain, Aguero, and Tevez to call upon. With that in mind, you really have to feel that Argentina will destroy Mexico at the back as Mexico have looked particularly inept when it comes to dealing with pace in defence. Mexico’s energy and their movation for this hispanic rivalry match will make this a semi-difficult game for Argentina. However, I cannot envision a scenario whereby Argentina don’t score in this game, not whilst Messi is running the show.
With the above in mind, backing both sides to score at 11/10 looks the best option for value to me. I think Argentina will win it but I won’t back them at 11/20 – there’s no value in that for a side that isn’t fulfilling its name just yet. Also, bear in mind the last time these two sides met at a World Cup – that was one of the best World Cup matches I’ve ever seen, a game which ended 0-0 after ninety minutes before a wonder goal from Maxi Rodriguez won it for Argentina in extra time. Mexico arguably outplayed Argentina in this excellent game and could have easily won it and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar game here today.
Verdict: Both teams to score at 11/10.
Dnepr Mogilev vs Shakhtyor Soligorsk – away win at 6/5.
Hosts Dnepr Mogilev have had a disappointing season so far with just six wins in sixteen games. They’re a little lower in the table than usual due to conceding too many away goals but in all fairness – away games have never been their strength. Dnepr’s strength has always been hosting sides in Mogilev, something they’ve again tried to enforce this season with four wins, two draws, and just two defeats in eight home games in the Vysshaya Liga. They don’t score enough goals in general but what they lack in goalscoring they make up for in solidarity at the back, hence the only two defeats they’ve had at home this season coming when they leaked a shocking eight goals in two games. Dnepr know they can’t outscore their opponents so they tend to keep them out although goals scored aganist them tend to be fatal. Interestingly, barring those two abject displays, Dnepr have only conceded once at home in six games and even boast the record of being the only side to beat Dinamo Minsk at home so far this season. Don’t underestimate this side because of their league placing – the league tables can lie sometimes!
However, I have to favour Shakhtyor Soligorsk today. I wasn’t planning on doing so following Shakhtyor’s stumble at home to newly-promoted Belshina last match but I’ve been swayed to do so as Dnepr Mogilev have their eyes firmly fixed upon their trip to Albania in a few days time to take on Laci in the UEFA Europa League Qualifiers. Dnepr’s focus will be entirely upon that game and I don’t blame them; that’s where there revenue is nowadays. Therefore, Shakhtyor have the green light to return to winning ways against what is sure to be an under-strength host. Shakhtyor lost in Mogilev last season but it’s the only time that they’ve lost there in well over ten years as Shakhtyor are by far and away the better of the two sides. Shakhtyor are still unbeaten in eight consecutive games so momentum is still present for the visitors, who have won four out of eight on the road already this season, losing just once along the way. Shakhtyor’s away record is even more impressive when you consider that they’ve conceded just four away goals all season so a fairly impotent and under-strength Dnepr Mogilev look very likely to not score in this game, in my opinion, so the question here is will Shakhtyor Soligorsk score?
For me – yes, they will. They’ve scored a lot of late and I’ll chalk their draw with Belshina down to the dogged defence of the visitors. Shakhtyor are the better side here today and their hosts shouldn’t be able to counter them so providing the visitors take the lead at somepoint, odds of 6/5 look good value on the away win.
Verdict: Shakhtyor Soligorsk to win at 6/5.
HB Torshavn vs EB/Streymur – lay HB Torshavn at 10/11.
This is a match between two Faroese heavyweights, neither of which have performed consistently well this season. HB have won four times in six home games and have drawn twice along the way, whereas EB/Streymur have played six away games and have only lost once, drawing three times and winning twice along the way. Despite not winning for two consecutive games and having leaked five goals in their last three home games, the bookies still feel it’s suitable for HB Torshavn to be priced at 7/10, despite them facing a worthy adversary. HB have won twice and lost twice in their last four home games against EB/Streymur because they’re both good sides so why the bookies are favouring HB to this extent is beynod me. HB claimed a poor draw at AB Argir before succumbing to a 2-0 defeat at in-form NSI Runavik over their last two games so they’re not exactly brimming with confidence currently. HB have to look ahead to their massive game with Salzburg of Austria in the forthcoming days to attemt to qualify for the UEFA Europa League and in a Meistaradeildin division devoid of large financial rewards, the priority will always be the European competition. Similarly, EB/Streymur have a tough trip to Sweden to face Kalmar in the upcoming days so you have to wonder if there’ll be some kind of truce between the two Faroese giants because the result doesn’t cripple either particularly and both will focus on their European committments. EB/Streymur have been very much in-form of late and are unbeaten in seven consecutive Meistaradeildin games so they’re going to be a hard side to beat today.
Ultimately, I don’t understand why HB are as favoured as they are today. I think they probably just about edge the quality front against EB/Streymur at the moment but there’s very little in it – they’re very much capable of cancelling each other out on their respective days – so the bookies have priced this incorrectly in my eyes. Both sides have eyes elsewhere for this game so I think a draw is quite likely – I’m just surprised that the odds on laying the out-of-form hosts are as long as 10/11 so that’s my recommendation for value on this game today!
Verdict: Lay HB Torshavn at 10/11.
IF Fuglafjordur vs B36 Torshavn – home win at 4/5.
IF have had a great start to their Meistaradeildin campaign and although they’ve been hindered of late, they can still consider their campaign a success thus far. They’re third in the table and have been impressive both at home and away. With only 50% of their home games won, it’s fair to say that they’ve not been as strong at home as they should be but nonetheless, they remain a capable side. IF were taught a valuable lesson by both EB/Streymur and NSI Runavik earlier this month and at the end of last month respectively with both of the bigger sides crushing in-form IF Fuglafjordur. However, IF have responded surprisingly well, which was something I didn’t really expect them to be able to do – it shows mental strength I didn’t envision them encompassing yet. However, they’ve proven me wrong with back-to-back victories against B68 Torshavn and B71 Sandur and bring good momentum and spirit into this game as a result so I have to favour the hosts to do damage today.
Visitors B36 Torshavn are a compact side, which makes them hard to beat, but they simply don’t score enough goals. They’ve scored two goals over four consecutive games in all competitions (both the Meistaradeildin and Logmanssteypid) so I really don’t see them troubling IF’s back-line, not unless they were in-form anyway. B36 won their first game in ten Meistaradeildin games last match by beating relegation-threatened AB Argir 1-0 and although that will give them some momentum, they’ve still not convinced me that they’re ready to do anything in games like this one. The experience of Jakup A Borg has been quintessential for the visitors so far this season and will be today if they intend to stay in the division, which I’d like them to do as one of the two remaining founding members of the Meistaradeildin. It’s surprising for me to consider that B36 don’t score enough goals with the likes of Mouritsen in midfield but they simply don’t take the chances that they have – might be time for them to learn that the pacey Elttor is not always their best source for goals.
Ultimately, I don’t envision enough of a goal-threat from the visitors today to trouble IF but IF often find goals so I think we’ll see a home win for the in-form and driven hosts. 4/5 aren’t the best odds around for an over-achieving side but nonetheless, I’d be surprised to see them do anything but win this one today so there should be value there.
Verdict: IF Fuglafjordur to win at 4/5.
UMF Grindavik vs Fylkir Reykjavik – home win at 17/10.
This one’s a real bargain! UMF Grindavik are undoubtedly one of the poorer sides in the Urvalsdeild but momentum is an amazing thing and they have now won back-to-back games, impressively enough. Are they going to make a late surge for the Urvalsdeild title?! No, of course not! Don’t be stupid! But what they can do is build on that momentum and they have the opportune moment to do so today against Fylkir Reykjavik to claim their first home victory of the season. Both of their last two games have been on the road and they’ve won both so I don’t see why they can’t carry that record over to their home form. The draw (and eventual defeat) to KA mid-week in the Iceland Cup was disappointing but expected; Grindavik prefer to avoid the drop rather than compete in the Icelandic Cup. Grindavik would much rather win this game and indeed, why not? They’re facing an out-of-form side who they’ve beaten for their last two visits to Reykjavik so they should be able to reproduce that form again at home today.
Fylkir are truly having a shocker of a season despite starting off really well. They’re currently ninth in the table with just two wins in eight games and it’s largely because of their away form that they are so close to the drop zone with three defeats in four away games. Fylkir rarely have problems scoring goals but they’ve been really weak in defence this season and have paid the price more than once as a result. Fylkir are without a win in four consecutive games in all competitions and were embarrassed at home by rivals Fram Reykjavik mid-week in the Icelandic Cup so confidence is not rife in their camp currently. They’ve leaked nine goals in four games and have scored just four times themselves so these are indeed grim times for the talented side. They’ve picked an atrocious time to be in a bad run of form too, with a tricky trip to in-form Grindavik today and a tough trip to Belarus to face battling Torpedo Zhodino a few days later so Fylkir have real problems here and may even rest players to prioritise their committments to European football.
The combination of poor form and a bigger game looming makes me think that Fylkir haven’t really earned the tag of “favourites” here. Grindavik have much more to play for, they’re playing better than Fylkir currently, and they desperately need the points so motivation is high. I fancy Grindavik to cause an upset here against a seemingly disinterested Fylkir Reykjavik today and the odds are good enough to see it happen at too.
Verdict: UMF Grindavik to win at 17/10.
Valur Reykjavik vs Keflavik – home win at 6/5.
Valur really don’t have a flattering record against Keflavik so do approach this one with caution!
However, the rejuvenated hosts are playing well enough to be feared today as they now occupy third place in the Urvalsdeild despite a shaky start. They’re the most in-form side in the division currently with six wins and one draw from seven consecutive games in all competitions and thus bring tremendous momentum into this encounter. They’ve beaten local rivals KR Reykjavik and Fylkir Reykjavik along the way to boost their morale, as well as beating Vikingur Reykjavik mid-week in the Icelandic Cup to qualify for the latter stages of the competition, albeit having taken them until extra time to do so. Bluntly, Valur have a lot going for them at the moment and although their wins aren’t as impressive as they should be, they are still winning games nonetheless so you have to favour them today.
Ordinarily, I’d not back Keflavik to lose this game but they’ve totally lost their way lately and they’re doing exactly what they always do when this happens – concede goals. Keflavik’s predominant strength is not conceding goals but a loss of form sees them concede, thus rendering them unable to compete with other sides as they don’t score enough goals, which then means that they lose games, as I’ve explained before on this site. If you can find a side scoring goals taking on an out-of-form Keflavik then I’d always endorse backing Keflavik’s opponents, based on previous scenarios of this nature. Keflavik are now without a win in four consecutive games as a result of the above, the most recent of which was a disappointing defeat at home to Urvalsdeild title rivals FH Hafnarfjordur mid-week in the Icelandic Cup. I don’t know what will have hurt Keflavik more – the fact that they lost the game or the fact that they lost the game at home. Either way, things are not going well for Keflavik at the moment as draws at home to newly-promoted Haukar Hafnarfjordur and Fram Reykjavik in recent times have indicated all too well, not to mention the crushing 4-0 defeat at Stjarnan Gardabaer. Keflavik are conceding too many goals to be taken seriously at the moment and they’re facing a very in-form Valur so I fear for them today.
Again, I can only reiterate my call of caution with this selection – Valur don’t have a good record at home to Keflavik and I frankly rate Keflavik as being the better side. However, Keflavik look very vulnerable currently and Valur are primed to take advantage of that fact today so there could and should be value in the home win today.
Verdict: Valur Reykjavik to win at 6/5.
FH Hafnarfjordur vs Stjarnan Gardabaer – home win at 11/20.
It looks to me like the old FH is back in town, which immediately makes odds shorter than 1/3 as being too short, hence today’s bet. I like Stjarnan – they’re hard-workers, good goalscorers, and are ultimately hard to beat when playing on their artificial turf in Gardabaer. However, they don’t travel well as two defeats and one draw in three away games in the Urvaldeild this season indicates all too clearly, particularly as they concede over two goals per away game on average. That’s a very dangerous record to take into the home ground of the best side in Iceland as they found out last season when they were crushed 5-1 here in Hafnarfjordur. Indeed, Stjarnan even lost their traditional home advantage against FH last season too as they lost 4-1 in Gardabaer too so it’s safe to say that the gap in quality between these two sides is often evident. FH haven’t patched up their leaky defence yet but they’re back to their old “we’ll score more than you” routine and it’s working well with no defeats in six consecutive games in all competitions, winning five of them. Beware the awakened FH Hafnarfjordur here – I expect masses of goals from both sides here but I’ll be astounded if this doesn’t result in a home win and the odds are way too good for the outcome, in my opinion – definite accumulator fodder here!
Verdict: FH Hafnarfjordur to win at 11/20.
Zalgiris Vilnius vs Ekranas Panevezys – away win at 13/10.
Newly-promoted Zalgiris Vilnius have now had two “welcome to the A Lyga” games in quick succession, drawing at home to giants Suduva Marijampole and losing at bitter rivals Vetra Vilnius. Zalgiris suddenly don’t look as confident nor capable anymore and whereas their overall claim for the A Lyga title is perfectly acceptable given the longevity of the club’s success in Lithuania over the years, what I would say is that it’s a bridge too far to expect them to mix it with the likes of Suduva, Vetra, and Ekranas in their first season back in the A Lyga, and thus it’s been proven of late. I expect Zalgiris to lose momentum and morale for this game and they’re now facing what is currently the most dangerous side in the division – Ekranas Panevezys – who have replaced them at the top of the A Lyga following their recent stumble.
Zalgiris have been excellent at home this season but they face a gigantic threat in the form of Ekranas Panevezys, the side that has scored the most goals in the division, as well as boasting a defensive record that only oddballs Tauras Taurage can better currently. Ekranas have already won four out of six on the road this season whilst averaging scoring over two goals per away game and conceding just over a goal per every two games. They’ve won four consecutive games (well, five if you include their Lithuanian Cup win against Vetra Vilnius) and they duly have tremendous momentum as a result and they’ve also been scoring goals for fun.
To be blunt, Ekranas are the better of these two sides by some distance and I expect it to show today in light of the momentum side of things. Zalgiris have commanded some short odds in the A Lyga so far this season because of their effective displays but they remain a newcomer to the division so don’t over-estimate them – they’re not the side that they were – yet. Ekranas have everything in their favour today and 13/10 are good odds to see them win the game at as the superior side.
Verdict: Ekranas Panevezys to win at 13/10.
Accumulator fodder:
Emelec Guayaquil, NSI Runavik, Fram Reykjavik, Vetra Vilnius, FH Hafnarfjordur.
Recommended bets:
Both teams to score in both World Cup games at 3/1.
Vetra Vilnius, Suduva Marijampole, and Ekranas Panevezys at 3/1.
Fram Reykjavik, FH Hafnarfjordur, and UMF Grindavik at 4/1.
NSI Runavik, IF Fuglafjordur, and lay HB Torshavn at 3/1.
Shakhtyor Soligorsk and Dinamo Minsk at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
World Cup:
Germany vs England (5) 1-1
Argentina vs Mexico (7) 2-1
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
FC Minsk vs Belshina (7) 2-0
Naftan Novopolotsk vs Dinamo Brest (5) 1-0
Dnepr Mogilev vs Shakhtyor Soligorsk (7) 1-2
Partizan Minsk vs BATE Borisov (7) 1-2
FC Vitebsk vs Dinamo Minsk (7) 0-1
Neman Grodno vs Torpedo Zhodino (6) 1-0
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Macara Ambato vs Barcelona Guayaquil (7) 1-1
Emelec Guayaquil vs Espoli Cayambe (8) 2-0
Independiente vs Liga de Quito (5) 0-1
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
HB Torshavn vs EB/Streymur (6) 2-2
IF Fuglafjordur vs B36 Torshavn (7) 2-1
AB Argir vs NSI Runavik (9) over 2.5 goals
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
UMF Grindavik vs Fylkir Reykjavik (7) 2-1
Breidablik Kopavogur vs KR Reykjavik (5) 2-2
Valur Reykjavik vs Keflavik (6) 2-1
Fram Reykjavik vs Haukar Hafnarfjordur (8) 2-1
FH Hafnarfjordur vs Stjarnan Gardabaer (9) over 2.5 goals
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Zalgiris Vilnius vs Ekranas Panevezys (6) 0-1
Banga Gargzdai vs Vetra Vilnius (8) 0-2
Suduva Marijampole vs Atletas (8) under 2.5 goals
Swedish Superettan:
Assyriska Sodertalje vs Falkenberg (6)
Trollhattan vs GIF Sundsvall (7)
Hammarby vs Landskrona BoIS (5)
Enjoy your free betting tips!