Germany vs Italy
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First of all, the general international warning is here, as ever. Please bet with caution on internationals as they’re highly unpredictable, even the ones you think are “dead certs”! International days are just generally atrocious so I’d keep stakes minimal. Please also note that team news isn’t available for every nation too – I’ve gathered as much as I can though!
Today’s secondary featured game is the friendly in Germany between Germany and Italy. These two heavyweights of European football have somewhat fallen from grace in recent times but I’d be surprised to see anything but a passionate affair between two old hands today – pride is a massive battle between two such footballing giants at any level.
Germany aren’t in the best of states, all things considered. They’ve got a decent side but it’s barely comparible to their teams of old. However, credit must be given where it’s due and in the World Cup just gone by, Germany were quite excellent when you consider the lack of options they had in attack. They overcame sides that they arguably shouldn’t have been able to and scored far more goals than I personally thought that they were capable of. The reason that Germany did so well, in my view, was a tremendous sense of team spirit and a lot of hard work. Germany’s attack is still weak, a lot weaker than the names look on paper. However, emerging link man Muller being supported by Ozil and battling duo Schweinsteiger and Khedira make this midfield capable of dominating any game and if they do then you have to fancy Germany’s chances here. Only Argentina have won in Germany against Germany in the past couple of years and it took a very good display to do it. Germany’s midfield wasn’t at its best but it’s starting to look that way now with even young Dortmund midfielder Gotze being brought into the team. Germany’s defence can be a tad cumbersome and vulnerable at times but generally speaking, it’s hard to score against them, especially with two excellent goalkeepers to choose from here. As I said re, the attackers such as Gomez and Klose concern me at this level as Klose hasn’t been good for a couple of years and Podolski often goes missing in big games. However, the remainder of the German team is good enough to carry them in a big match like this, albeit a friendly, especially on their own turf so I fancy them here.
Italy are in a dark place, football-wise, and it doesn’t seem to be getting any brighter. They’ve got the big names and the individual talent to be a good side – they’ve had that for many, many years. However, Italian football is generally so slow and predictable nowadays that I find it hard to place any faith in the Italian national team whatsoever. Generally, you used to be able to rely on the Italians for warrior-esque defending and a class that your national team could only dream of possessing. Nowadays, Italy are a lot more susceptible in defence and give the ball away far too much with their slow passing game. Only the likes of Pepe, Rossi, and Cassano can breathe life into this somewhat stagnant Italian side and it’s just not enough, in my view. A lot of people were surprised at the World Cup by Italy’s early exit but as any viewers of my site from that time will possibly remember – I wasn’t surprised at all. All the sides that they faced figured them out easily and defended against them without any great trouble and when you consider that those sides were New Zealand, Paraguay, and Slovakia, you can see what I mean. Italy played a friendly before that tournament against Switzerland and drew 0-0 in a game that was possibly the worst spectacle I’ve ever come across due to Italy’s inability to create anything and I expect a similar display tonight. If Pazzini and Cassano link up as well as they did at Sampdoria, if Cassano stops being a prick, and if Rannochia defends as well as he has done for Internazionale in recent times than Italy do have a chance here but I just can’t see it, really – Germany should have too much energy for the Italians today and that should be evident by the final whistle.
Germany have left out Jansen, Tasci, Hitzlsperger, Trochowski, Ballack, Cacau, Helmes, and emerging youngsters Kroos and Marin for this game. I don’t think any are particularly notable losses either due to a lack of match practice or due to adequate replacements so I’m quite content that the German side today is good enough to win this game. However, Italy have left out Pirlo, Gilardino, and Quagliarella, all of which I consider rather important to the Italian team, especially Pirlo, who has carried this Italian side for some years with his immense ability to strike a ball. These players cannot be replaced and although Italy are full of talented individuals, as I’ve mentioned earlier, their style is rather predictable and generally, they’ll fail to win games so I don’t rate their chances here.
3/4 on a Germany win isn’t great odds, especially as they’re not particularly well off for strikers at the moment, but they should still have too much for Italy with the above in mind so a Germany win at 3/4 appeals to me today.
P.S. Controversy much in the Italy camp as they’ve called up Thiago Motta, who could have played for Brazil, Spain, or Italy but the Brazil-born midfielder has opted to play for Italy. Italy fans have never been particularly welcoming of anyone but Italian players in their team so it’ll be interesting to see what effect this has on the team.
Squads:
Germany – Neuer, Adler, Schmelzer, Friedrich, Aogo, Westermann, Badstuber, Lahm, Mertesacker, Hummels, Boateng, Khedira, Schweinsteiger, Ozil, Grosskreutz, Trasch, Gotze, Bender, Podolski, Klose, Muller, Gomez.
Italy – Buffon, Viviano, Sirigu, Maggio, Criscito, Chiellini, Ranocchia, Cassani, Bonucci, Astori, De Rossi, Mauri, Nocerino, Montolivo, Aquilani, Motta, Palombo, Giovinco, Pazzini, Cassano, Matri, Borriello, Rossi.
Verdict: Germany to win at 3/4.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Moldova vs Andorra – under 2.5 goals at 5/4.
This game is being played in Portugal so there’s no home advantage here, first of all.
Secondly, I rate Moldova rather highly. I think they’ve played well over the past couple of years and they’ve impressed me by strong displays in which they’ve not been heavily beaten, either losing by a single goal, drawing, or even winning against sides that they really shouldn’t be beating. Moldova are on the up and although they lost to Poland a couple of days ago in a friendly – a very under-strength Poland team – I still rate them here. Incidentally, Moldova outplayed Poland in that game, in my humble opinion, but Poland took their chances and Moldova didn’t, simply. That is Moldova’s predominant issue, unfortunately – they just don’t score enough goals and that has to be a concern for them, even against Andorra.
Andorra are a side that most people write off as being terrible and likely to lose every game 5-0 and I can understand that – it has been that way for many, many years now. However, I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss them nowadays. I’m not saying that they’re on their way to being a European superpower but their game is absolutely developing every year that goes by and Andorra are now a side that is capable of being very determined, very physical, very well-organised, and generally a pain in the arse. They lack a lot in front of goal so they don’t tend to score but the fact that they’ve only been beaten by more than two goals just once in their last six consecutive games speaks volumes about how they’re improving. I watched Russia struggle tremendously to win 0-2 in Andorra in a game that they couldn’t have complained had they drawn 0-0 so I won’t rush into writing Andorra off here – they’re almost ready to start causing the odd surprise if they find the net more often.
Ultimately, I do expect Moldova to win this game – I think they’re good enough to do so. However, this Andorra side is very physical and if they sit back and invite Moldovan attacks then this game can easily go under 2.5 goals. Moldova haven’t scored more than twice in a game since mid-way through 2009 so goalscoring is and always has been at least a partial issue for them. They should have enough to edge this game today but there’s no value in it from that perspective. However, under 2.5 goals at 5/4 appeals to me a lot here so that’s my call.
Squads:
Moldova – Namasco, Calancea, Matyugin, Epureanu, Golovatenco, Armas, Bulgaru, Racu, Bolohan, Ilescu, Cebotari, Andronic, Suvurov, Bordian, Cebotaru, Tigirlas, Cojocari, Frantuz, Patras, Gheorghiev, Bugaiov, Doros, Picusceac, Dedov.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 5/4.
San Marino vs Liechtenstein – either side not to score at 6/5.
I wish the bookies had approached this one a lot more blindly but regrettably, they’ve made it so that I cannot find any value in this game from a 1×2 perspective. Liechtenstein are priced at 1/2 (1.50) to win this game and whereas that’s not really accurate, they are still the better side – just not to that extent. Liechtenstein are another side that are on the rise and they’re becoming harder to beat, even scoring a lot more than normal, even away from home. They could and really should win this game, especially with experienced striker Mario Frick still doing the business for his beloved homeland. However, the odds on the Liechtenstein win don’t interest me in the slightest, although I must confess that I toyed with the idea of San Marino +1.5 because they’ve improved a considerable amount in recent times too, playing some nice football at times. San Marino’s problem is that when they do concede – which is almost every game – their heads drop and they concede more. If they postpone that inevitable goal for a lengthy period of time then the game has a great chance of going under 2.5 goals. However, when Liechtenstein score, which they really should, then the game should be over, in my view.
Laying Liechtenstein still appeals to be more than backing them as the odds are more generous and thus I see more value in it as San Marino really are due a result at somepoint in the near future – why not today? A draw is not out of the question here at all. However, for me, the value has to be in taking either side not to score a goal at 6/5. San Marino are one of the lowest-scoring sides in Europe and Liechtenstein aren’t far ahead of them either. I think we should see an away win here, ultimately, but backing either of these two reasonably impotent sides not to score at 6/5 in this game looks a steal today.
Squads:
Liechtenstein – Jehle, Buchel, Rechsteiner, Vogt, Christen, Eberle, Kaufmann, Martin Stocklasa, Michael Stocklasa, Burgmeier, Buchel, Wieser, Erne, Kieber, Polverino, Beck, Frick, and Hasler.
Verdict: Either side not to score at 6/5.
Armenia vs Georgia – both sides to score at 4/5.
I’m quite looking forward to this game as these two sides have impressed me a lot over the last year or so with Armenia attacking like seasoned pros and scoring goals for fun whilst Georgia rediscovered their mojo under legend Temur Ketsbaia.
This game is being played in Limassol, Cyprus, so it is a neutral venue for the most part. However, Georgia boss Ketsbaia used to coach Anorthosis Famagusta in Cyprus and his Anorthosis side played both AEL Limassol and Apollon Limassol here on varying occasions so he does know this pitch quite well, which may hand a slight advantage to the in-form Georgia team.
Armenia continue to impress me every time I see them and I cannot praise them enough, to be honest. They annihlated both Andorra and Slovakia in their last two internationals, bagging seven goals in the process. They claimed a 2-2 draw at Republic of Macedonia when they should really have won, outplayed (in my view) the Republic of Ireland at home before succumbing to a sucker-punch goal and losing 0-1, led against an experienced Iran side at home in a friendly for a large portion of the game before capitulating and conceding heavily at the end, beaten both Uzbekistan and Belgium at home and have also given Spain a damn good run for their money in between, eventually losing 1-2. This is not a series of fluke results; it’s proof that Armenia are on the rise and it’d be foolish to look upon them as a poor side nowadays, in my view, especially with more Armenians playing football in Europe than ever before i.e. Mikhitaryan at Shakhtar Donetsk, Dashyan at Metalurg Donetsk, Hayrapetyan at Lechia Gdansk, Goharyan at BATE Borisov, Movsisyan at FK Krasnodar, Arzuanyan at Jagiellonia Bialystok etc. Star striker Manucharyan left Ajax on a free transfer following continual injury issues and has returned to Armenia to play for Pyunik Yerevan but he’s too good to be in that league – I’m sure he’ll be back in Europe within the next 12-24 months. All in all though – this is not a side to underestimate anymore.
Ketsbaia is a wise enough manager to know that, however, and Georgia enter this match with their local rivals on an eight game unbeaten run so they’re not to be underestimated here either. Georgia used to be a good home side back in the days of Kinkladze but that faded and they became somewhat mediocre for a lengthy period of time. However, Ketsbaia is building a new Georgian team and you can see what his presence has done to this team – they believe in themselves again and look at the results! They’ve held Greece away from home, Israel at home, Cameroon at home, Latvia away, and even won at Slovenia in their last international game. They look a lot more assured at the back, especially experienced Kaladze, and they’re also scoring goals again, which is naturally useful! Georgia has two good goalkeepers in Loria and Revishvili, not to mention some solid defenders in Kaladze, Khizanishvili, and Amisulashvili. Kobiashvili brings some much-needed experience into midfield whilst Iashvili provides the finesse and experinece in attack. It’ll be interesting to see if Ketsbaia utilises emerging striker Vatsadze, who has recently moved to ply his trade in Russia so let’s see if his pace can be a valuable asset for Georgia today. The one thing Georgia tends to lack is creativity in midfield although Gogua and perhaps Kankava can provide enough to combat Armenia today as Armenia’s strength is in midfield and attack, not defence.
Overall, I’m expecting a very open game here so cue the 0-0 draw! Seriously though, we have two very hungry and in-form sides here, both of which are capable of scoring goals for varying reasons. For me, this game should be over 2.5 goals but my call is going to be both sides scoring because Georgia aren’t conceding many whatsoever under Ketsbaia. It takes a very good side nowadays to keep Armenia out but it’s possible that Armenia will only score one. With Armenia’s defence being their weakest point and Georgia starting to take their chances, the logical call here is backing both sides to score at 4/5 so that’s what I’m doing!
Squads:
Georgia – Revishvili, Loria, Kashia, Kaladze, Amisulashvili, Khizanishvili, Kakubava, Khubutia, Salukvadze, Gogua, Kvirkvelia, Kobiashvili, Ananidze, Merebashvili, Kankava, Guruli, Daushvili, Iashvili, Dvalishvili, Siradze, and Vatsadze.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
Republic of Macedonia vs Cameroon – both sides to score at 9/10.
This is a friendly game but you’ll rarely see Macedonia take their foot off the gas in Skopje – their fans wouldn’t allow it. Even living legend Goran Pandev is in the Macedonia squad for this game so you can see that they’re taking it seriously. The likes of Sumulikoski, Mitreski, Naumoski, and especially Tasevski are some of the other experienced heads that are here to try and get one over on their African opponents. Only Russia and Norway have left Macedonia with a clean sheet in Macedonia’s last seventeen home games in all competitions so you can see how hard an away game this is. However, the fact that Macedonia have only kept six clean sheets along the way also says that with the right attack against them, they will ship goals. They were outplaying Spain at home not long ago, as I recall, leading 2-0 at one stage only to throw it away and lose 2-3 by defensive capitulation and Spanish talent and I expect something similar here. Cameroon aren’t a great side but they’re quick, they’re physical, and generally very hard to play against unless you take your chances so I’ll give them their chances here. I think I’m in the few number of people in the world who doesn’t rate Eto’o as a particularly great striker – I just view him as a quick striker who turns up when he feels like it. Nonetheless, he brings a lot to this Cameroon side in terms of confidence and pace and he’ll be integral to their display today. Cameroon are often guilty of missing too many chances but they should have more pace than their opponents can handle so I expect at least one Cameroonian goal in this game today.
It’s a braver man than me who enters this game from the 1×2 perspective but backing both sides to score at 9/10 appeals to me with the above in mind.
Squads:
Republic of Macedonia – Nuredinoski, Bogatinov, Noveski, Mitreski, Sikov, Lazevski, Todorovski, Mojsov, Lazarevski, Sumulikoski, Tasevski, Despotovski, Demiri, Manevski, Pandev, Trickovski, Naumoski, and Ristic.
Cameroon – Assembe, Kameni, N’Koulou, Assou-Ekotto, Chedjou, Angbwa, Bassong, Bedimo, Bong, Sadjo, M’Bia, N’Guemo, Tchoyi, Enoh, Mandjeck, Matip, Mbuta, Eto’o, Webo, Aboubakar, and Choupo-Moting.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 9/10.
Turkey vs South Korea – both sides to score at 9/10.
Turkey have been priced on their name for too long now and it’s becoming irritating, to be honest. They’ve gone downhill ever since their immense displays at the World Cup back in 2002 and I can barely bring myself to back them nowadays due to defensive ineptitude and tempremental strikers. Turkish clubs are beginning to recognise the lack of local talent by sourcing the majority of their attacking players from abroad, something which happened an awful lot during the January transfer window just gone and it should really set the alarm bells off for Turkey that they’re simply not what they were. They still have some talented players, don’t get me wrong, especially in midfield where the likes of Sahin and Emre patrol. However, as a unit, this side continuously shoots themselves in the foot by conceding stupid goals and not always scoring enough so I expect more of the same from the hosts in this game. They’ve leaked goals in seven out of their last twelve home games in all competition, including two against Estonia, so a defensive shambles is not out of the question here, although their attacking ability should see them score goals here too.
South Korea aren’t in the best position to be backed at the moment with a lot of youngsters being utilised instead of most of the old hands as they look to the future, just as they did in the Asian Cup. However, the return of key striker Park Chu-Young and the emergance of winger Chung-Yong Lee on the flank as a potential long-term replacement for the retired Ji-Sung Park has given me some faith in South Korea’s attack. They have some talented youngsters coming through and a few old hands (i.e. Cha Du-Ri) are in the squad for guidance so I expect an enthused South Korean display here and to be honest, it shouldn’t take much for them to score against Turkey as they’re a very technically gifted side and unlike in the Asian Cup, they have a striker available who is a proven goalscorer at this level.
Therefore, my call in this game is for both sides to score at 9/10.
Squads:
Turkey – Demirel, Kivrak, Gunok, Gokhan, Serkan, Serdar, Servet, G. Emre, Balta, Koybasi, Suzen, Sabri, Selcuk, Incedemir, Mehmet, Sahin, B. Emre, Altintop, Kurtulus, Engin, Bulut, Yilmaz, Kazim-Richards, and Tunay.
South Korea – Sung-Ryong, Jin-Hyeong, Hyo-Jin, Jae-Won, Sang-Duk, Jeong-Ho, Chul, Jung-Soo, Suk-Young, Du-Ri, Yong-Rae, Bit-Garam, Sung-Kuk, Ja-Cheol, Sung-Yueng, Chung-Yong, Bo-Kyung, Heung-Min, Dong-Won, Chu-Young, Tae-Hee, and Shin-Wook.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 9/10.
Bulgaria vs Estonia – over 2.5 goals at 13/10.
This game is being played in Turkey so there is no home advantage here, although the Bulgarians and Turks do tend to have a good relationship, or so I am told!
I expect an interesting game here though. Bulgaria’s strikers Makriev, Rangelov, and Wisla Krakow new signing Genkov all have a point to prove after the media stories were leaked not long ago about how desperate they were to have Berbatov back so Bulgaria should be up for this game. With key playmaker Petrov back in their ranks and the talented Popov on the flank, I rate Bulgaria as a decent attacking unit although their defending will probably be as questionable as ever, especially with two fairly average goalkepeers in the team.
Estonia, on the other hand, have played very well in the last year or so, excluding their disappointing trip to Asia lately which was used as an experimental trip with lots of young players. They’ve won 1-3 at Serbia, drawn 3-3 with Uzbekistan, outplayed Italy and led 1-0 before succumbing to two late goals and losing 1-2, and even overcame local rivals Finland 2-0 so this Estonia side is arising. They’re physical, well-organised, and most importantly, they know how to score goals. They’ll miss pacey Zenjov in attack for this game, which is a blow, but the experience of Oper and the talented Saag should compensate on that front if Estonia play as well as they can. Estonia’s potentially big problem is that star centre-back Piiroja may miss this game through injury and if he’s missing then they should concede at least once in this game. Morozov is a decent centre-back but he’s nowhere near the level of Piiroja yet and Estonia will miss him if he’s absent, which it’s sounding more and more likely that he will be. After all – why risk an important player in a friendly?
Therefore, I expect a fairly under-strength Estonia side and a determined Bulgaria side to combine and create a good and fairly open game. Five out of Estonia’s last eight games have gone over 2.5 goals and Bulgaria’s home games go over 2.5 goals if their team is motivated. That’s the big concern here, really – motivation. If Bulgaria don’t give a shit then they’ll most likely lose 0-1 as they did against Montenegro and Serbia in their last two home games. However, they should be determined here, especially given the rumours about Berbatov, so I expect over 2.5 goals here. Don’t rule out a potentially surprising result here too – too many people are writing Estonia off nowadays and it’s suicidal at this level! Either way, odds of 13/10 on over 2.5 goals in this game looks too generous to be overlooked so that’s my call here.
Squads:
Bulgaria – Peykov, Mihaylov, Iliev, Miliev, Zanev, Minev, Manolev, Ivanov, Bodurov, Angelov, Georgiev, Yankov, Popov, Peev, Yanev, Dimitrov, Petrov, Gadzhev, Rangelov, Makriev, and Genkov.
Estonia – Kotenko, Londak, Jaager, Klavan, Kruglov, Morozov, Piiroja, Rahn, Sisov, Dmitrijev, Kink, Puri, Purje, Vassiljev, Vunk, Oper, Saag, and Zahovaiko.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 13/10.
Luxembourg vs Slovakia – under 2.5 goals at evens.
Luxembourg are another side that aren’t easy to overcome anymore and I think Slovakia are perhaps a tad short for this game as a result. Slovakia reached the last World Cup, which was very impressive indeed, and they did it via hard work and a well-organised side. However, don’t be fooled – Slovakia generally aren’t a goalscoring side and they tend to fare better against sides that they can counter-attack rather than sides that they have to break down because Slovakia tend to suffer from a lack of creative players, barring the obvious choices of Hamsik and Weiss. Stoch isn’t really good enough at this level and Slovakia only really possess predictable strikers i.e. target man Nemec or pacey Jendrisek. They can do a job in games like this, don’t get me wrong, but to consistently break open a fairly physical side like Luxembourg, I think Slovakia will need more to break the 2.5 goals mark today. For me, under 2.5 goals could be a good call at evens today.
Squads:
Slovakia – Mucha, Kello, Zabavnik, Skrtel, Durica, Pekarik, Hubocan, Pecalka, Karhan, Hamsik, Jendrisek, Stoch, Weiss, Kucka, Sestak, Oravec, Nemec, and Kubik.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Verdict: Malta to win with +1.5 goal handicap at 4/5.
Belgium vs Finland – both sides to score at 4/5.
Belgium’s transition is well on its way to completion with the hosts for this game only needing to stabilise their defence before becoming something of a force again. The attack that they boast is very promising indeed with Hazard supporting Lukaku and Vossen, which is a triangle that simply oozes goals so I don’t fear for Belgium’s ability to put the ball in the net here, especially with Legear on the flanks. However, they remain susceptible defensively, despite the solid names of Kompany and Van Buyten in their ranks. I’ve been impressed with Ajax defender Aiderweireld in recent weeks so hopefully he’ll get a chance in this game but that doesn’t change the fact that Belgium are particularly vulnerable in the full-back area and it does tend to mean that Belgium concede goals, something which is well-illustrated by the fact that only Qatar, Turkey, Hungary, and Slovenia have left Belgium without scoring during Belgium’s last ten home games in all competitions, a run which included a baffling 4-4 draw with Austria. Therefore, I think it’s reasonable to expect Belgium to concede in this game.
Will Finland oblige though? I suppose that’s the big question, especially with only experienced striker Forssell in their ranks with a proven track record of doing so. The days of Litmanen are behind them now, as are the days of former manager Stuart Baxter, so Finland must start from scratch now. The inclusion of big KuPS Kuopio striker Venalainen for this game was an…interesting move, I suppose – not sure he can hack it at this level though. Aaritalo is a good choice though – I’m keen to see how he does at this level as he brings more than one asset to his game, unlike Venalainen. Finland’s predominant strength is in midfield and it’s pleasing to see them call up one of the Riski brothers to compete with the likes of Hetemaj and the Eremenko brothers as the Riski brothers have been excellent in the Veikkausliiga over the last couple of seasons. Hamalainen is a good winger on his day and although Finland’s defence looks very susceptible to quick players, it’s interesting to see them giving chances to players like goalkeeper Hradecky here so we should see an enthusiastic Finnish display here today.
It’s a fairly risky call as Finland turn up when they want to but backing both sides to score here is the bet that appeals to me most as I really don’t rate either defence very highly and yet both sides have brought some interesting attacking options along so both sides to score is my call here.
Squads:
Belgium – Proto, J-F. Gillet, Mignolet, Alderweireld, Ciman, Kompany, Lombaerts, Pocognoli, Simons, Van Buyten, Fellaini, G. Gillet, Legear, Van Damme, Vertonghen, Witsel, Chadli, Dembele, Hazard, Lukaku, Ogunjimi, Vleminckx, and Vossen.
Finland – Lehtovaara, Hradecky, Moisander, Lampi, Toivio, Ojala, Raitala, Patronen, R. Eremenko, Sparv, Porokara, A. Eremenko, Hamalainen, Mannstrom, Hetemaj, R.Riski, Forssell, Aaritalo, and Venalainen.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
France vs Brazil – away win at 5/4.
The job of being France’s manager was fast becoming as impossible as being the manager of the England team but Laurent Blanc has stepped into the position and made it his own, galvanising a sulky and sullen France side into a hard-to-beat unit that you can barely recognise from the woeful side seen over the past few years. I wouldn’t go as far as to say that France are heading back to their glory days but they’ve got a fantastic manager in charge and he’ll get the best out of his players, I’m sure. I think he’d be able to do his job better if the FFA would just fuck off too, telling Evra and Ribery that they don’t want them in the France squad anymore blah blah blah! Shut the fuck up, you stupid bastards! I don’t even like France and I can tell you that excluding Evra and Ribery from this team is suicide!! Blanc is a very good manager but he’s not a magician so use some common sense! Blanc’s actually got to manage without Evra, Gallas, Squillaci, Escude, Boumsong, Valbuena, Ribery, Toulalan, Saha, Cisse, Gignac, and Govou in this game so it should be interesting to see how France play as there’s some big names missing there. They do have the home advantage, which helps, but I’m not sure that even Blanc can magic up some depth for this team so France could be in trouble here.
That said, Brazil miss Lucio, Juan, Maicon, Ronaldinho, Kaka, Elano, Julio Baptista, Felipe Melo, Kleberson, Nilmar, Luis Fabiano, and Adriano so they’re hardly flush with big names themselves for this game, particularly in defence. However, the difference is that I rate Brazil’s depth much more than I rate France’s with Brazil able to call upon the likes of Anderson, Hulk, Ramires, Rafael, and Hernanes, just to name a few. I cannot begin to tell you how much Hulk has impressed me this season after a couple of immature season in the Liga Sagres. He’s finally proving his potential and frankly I wouldn’t be surprised to see him move on in summer if he continues as he is. He appears to have capped his petulance and started to score goals for fun from just about anywhere so I’m keen to see him play in this game, especially alongside the brilliant Pato. Brazil have a lot of players in this squad with a point to prove and I’m particularly keen to see little Rafael da Silva play at right-back as he’s had some fantastic games for Manchester United this season now that he’s stopped wildly lunging in at right-back. He’s a quick learner and is very competent on the ball so let’s see how he fares in this game.
Given the number of missing players, I have to emphasise caution with betting on this game. However, in my view, it looks like Brazil are bringing far more firepower into this game than France are and although France have a better manager, I don’t see them getting something against Brazil without a full-strength team available to them, even at home. Therefore, my call is a Brazil win in this game at 5/4.
Squads:
France – Carrasso, Lloris, Mandanda, Abidal, Clichy, Koscielny, Mexes, Rami, Reveillere, Sagna, Sakho, Cabaye, Diaby, Diarra, Gourcuff, M’Vila, Malouda, Matuidi, Benzema, Gameiro, Hoarau, Menez, and Remy.
Brazil – Julio Cesar, Gomes, Neto, Andre Santos, Daniel Alves, Breno, David Luiz, Luisao, Marcelo, Rafael, Thiago Silva, Anderson, Hernanes, Elias, Jadson, Lucas, Ramires, Sandro, Renato Augusto, Andre, Pato, Hulk, and Robinho.
Verdict: Brazil to win at 5/4.
Argentina vs Portugal – over 2.5 goals at 23/20.
Argentina miss Heinze, Demichelis, Samuel, Coloccini, Rodriguez, D’Alessandro, Gutierrez, Madi Rodriguez, Veron, Milito, Higuain, Tevez, and Aguero whereas Portugal miss Duda, Pepe, Carvalho, Tiago (retired), Mendes, and Liedson. There’s some hefty losses for both sides here, especially in defence, so this game surely ahs to yield goals. I don’t like betting on goals in games that Portugal are in because they’re a horribly impotent side with shit strikers so they tend to excessively rely upon their midfield and Ronaldo to bail them out. However, if Portugal can’t score against an Argentinan defence missing Samuel, Heinze, and Coloccini, then there’s something very wrong, particularly after a morale-boosting 4-0 win at home to Spain, who ironically Argentina have also beaten in the not-too-distant past. The two world legends Messi and Ronaldo are both available and let’s face it – these guys just ooze goals so you have to expect goals in this game. Portugal will sorely miss Carvalho in defence here, I am sure, and although Argentina do miss Tevez and Aguero, they should have enough firepower to make it count, although I must confess my surprise at seeing Velez Sarsfield’s Martinez called up to the squad. Nani and Ronaldo are capable of doing anything, based on their displays so far this season, as are Messi and Palermo playmaker Pastore, so this should really be an open game and over 2.5 goals at 23/20 looks generous with the above in mind.
Squads:
Argentina – Andujar, Romero, Burdisso, Garay, Milito, Otamendi, Pareja, Rojo, Zabaleta, Zanetti, Banega, Biglia, Cambiasso, Chavez, di Maria, Gago, Mascherano, Pastore, Sosa, Gaitan, Lavezzi, Martinez, and Messi.
Portugal – Eduardo, Ventura, Rui Patricio, Alves, Rolando, Coentrao, Costa, Bosingwa, Pereira, Moutinho, Danny, Machado, Veloso, Meireles, Martins, Ronaldo, Nani, Almeida, Quaresma, and Postiga.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 23/20.
Spain vs Colombia – HT/FT Draw/Spain at 12/5.
Under 2.5 goals at 11/10 appeals to me here too but I’m going to stick my neck out and chance better odds by backing a draw at half-time and a Spain win at full-time.
Why? Well, call it superstition or whatever but in all the games that I can recall, Spain have really struggled against hispanic opponents. I don’t know why but they tend to find them very hard to break down and as Colombia are one of the more physical and psychotic South American sides, I think we could see that today. You obviously must use caution here as Spain playing anyone can be 4-0 within thirty minutes but I think there’s potentially some good value here, especially as Spain haven’t convinced whatsoever in recent friendlies. Spain miss Puyol, Senna, and Mata for this game and the absence of Puyol may unsettle their defence here, making them a little less functional as a unit. Colombia miss Mondragon, Mosquera, Cordoba, Viafara, Hernandez, Restrepo, and the small Quintero but they’ve got adequate replacements, in my view. I’d like to have seen Darwin Quintero feature in this game however, just to see how he plays, but unfortunately that isn’t a possibility. Nonetheless, this game will mean a lot to Colombia and I think Spain will find it hard to break them down so I’m going to say that it’ll be a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time as the odds are particularly generous at 12/5.
Squads:
Spain – Casillas, Valdes, Reina, Albiol, Pique, Marchena, Capdevila, Ramos, Arbeloa, Iniesta, Xavi, Fabregas, Alonso, Busquets, Silva, Cazorla, Navas, Villa, Torres, Llorente, and Pedro.
Colombia – Ospina, Martinez, Yepes, Zapata, Armero, Zuniga, Valencia, Perea, Guarin, Sanchez, Aguilar, Cuadrado, Anchico, G.Moreno, Falcao, Rodallega, Ramos, and D.Moreno.
Verdict: HT/FT Draw/Spain at 12/5.
Finland U21 vs Estonia U21 – home win with -1.5 handicap at 11/10.
This one is fairly easy to explain; quality gap.
Finland are simply better than Estonia on just about every football level and it should show today. I mentioned Riski being called up for the Finnish national team earlier – well, his brother Riski at Cesena has been called into the Finland U21 squad and that’s a massive boost as he’s a very talented player. He joins Kauko at Inter Turku, Sumusalo at HJK Helsinki, Toivomaki and Pennanen (at Ajax and Twente respectively), and Pukki at HJK Helsinki as the leading names in this Finland U21 side. Finland U21 have played and beaten better sides than Estonia U21 prior to this game, overcoming a good Poland U21 side 3-0 in one of their last home games and drawing 1-1 with a superb Spain U21 side prior to that so don’t underestimate the hosts here. I can’t say a lot about the Estonian U21 side other than that they don’t tend to impress me because any talented players usually go straight into the senior side, which isn’t always the case with the Finnish side, for example. Estonia’s last U21 game saw them drubbed 5-0 by Republic of Ireland U21 and they lost 2-0 to Georgia U21 prior to that so they’re no strangers to being overrun on the road and that’s basically what I expect here.
Rannanari of Twente Enschede, Hoivala of KuPS Kuopio, and Ring of HJK Helsinki have all withdrawn through injury but Finland U21 have got more than enough to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 11/10 here.
Squads:
Finland U21 – Reponen, Sahlgren, Mantyla, Lahti, Moren, Toivomaki, Sumusalo, Nyberg, Kauko, Pennanen, Simpanen, Lahde, Abdulahi, Rasimus, Heini, Pukki, and Riski.
Verdict: Finland U21 to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 11/10.
Greece U21 vs Germany U21 – home win with draw no bet at evens.
I get the impression nowadays that people overestimate the Germany U21 side and I can understand that, especially as they flattened England U21 in the final of the last U21 tournament. However, a lot of their talented kids were promoted to the first-team and Germany U21 have struggled to recapture their form since then, naturally. Aside from that, Germany U21 actually miss regulars Bell, Gotze, Gundogan, Toni Kroos, Vukcevic, and striker Schurrle for this game so they’re really not in as commanding a position as their name and the odds on them winning this game may suggest, in my view. I’ve seen this Germany U21 side get flattened twice by Iceland U21 (losing once and drawing once), be outplayed twice by the Czech Republic U21 side, and even draw 1-1 with Northern Ireland U21 in the last two years, so why not Greece U21 too? I don’t recall ever seeing a better Greece U21 side, in all honesty. They totally outplayed England U21 when they went to Greece and that game somehow ended 1-1. Portugal U21 lost in Greece, as did everyone else in the group as Greece played very strongly indeed, even winning at England U21, which is a very difficult thing to do. They met the Czech Republic U21 side in the next round of the qualification process and were outplayed in both legs and crashed out, unfortunately, but they remain a good side with the likes of Kyriakos at Schalke 04, Panagiotis at Cesena, Savvas at AEK Athens, and Anastasios at Panathinaikos so I have to give them their due respect here.
If Greece U21 recapture the form that saw them play magnificently in the group stages prior to the last U21 tournament then I think they’re going to give Germany U21 a nightmare game here. However, if not, then they may be turned over as they were against Czech Republic U21 so do approach this one with caution. Nonetheless, backing Greece U21 to win this game with draw no bet cover at evens represents some decent value to me so that’s my call today.
Squads:
Germany U21 – Baumann, Trapp, Jantschke, Jung, Kirchoff, Neumann, Rausch, Salger, Sobiech, Didavi, Funk, Hermann, Holtby, Kroos, Rudy, Clemens, Mlapa, Sukuta-Pasu, and Tosun.
Verdict: Greece U21 to win with draw no bet at evens.
Slovenia U21 vs Croatia U21 – away win at evens.
Simply put, there should be a quality mismatch here. I’d leave it if the odds drop below evens but Croatia are good enough to score at least two goals here. Slovenia U21’s only home win in the last few years was against Malta U21 in a 1-0 win whilst they’ve succumbed to losses against Scotland U21 and Ukraine U21 along the way so they aren’t the most ferocious of home sides. Croatia U21 are one of the better U21 sides at the present time and the only side to put them to the sword was an excellent Spain U21 side so be wary here. Croatia U21 should have won at bitter rivals Serbia U21 but gave away stupid goals in that game but they’ve flattened a good Norway U21 side 4-1 and have won three consecutive away games prior to the Serbia U21 2-2 draw, beating Norway U21, Slovakia U21, and Cyprus U21 respectively. Croatia U21’s defence isn’t really good enough but their attack is very strong so they really should win this one today.
Squads:
Croatia U21 – Delac, Picak, Stipica, Celjak, Jozinovic, Kelic, Puncec, Rugasevic, Pavlovic, Abdurahimi, Ademi, Andrijasevic, Filipovic, Jakolis, Pamic, Ozobic, Trebotic, Vujicevic, Sacer, Sliskovic, and Vukusic.
Verdict: Croatia U21 to win at evens.
Netherlands U21 vs Czech Republic U21 – lay Netherlands U21 at 21/20.
It’s always bold to go against Netherlands U21, who seem to have a neverending supply of talented youngsters. However, I’m going to do it today as I’ve rarely seen a Czech Republic U21 side better than this one. This Czech Republic U21 side not only scores goals but defends very well. They’ve outplayed Germany U21 twice, beating them once and drawing once. They totally destroyed a very good Greece U21 side twice and generally, this side is capable of almost anything, in my view. Ex-Tottenham Hotspur striker Tomas Pekhart is the leading line of their attack and he’s been in excellent form in the Gambrinus Liga this season so we can expect a lot from him in this game. The Czechs simply have a good generation of kids coming through at the moment and Netherlands U21, as presentable and hard-working as they always are, they’re not impressing me at the moment. They’ve struggled against worse sides than this talented Czech Republic U21 side in recent times, losing 1-3 at home to Ukraine U21, labouring 3-2 past Poland U21, and drawing 1-1 with Norway U21. An upset isn’t off the menu here and I just feel that Netherlands U21 aren’t worthy of the short price they’ve been given here – seems far too much based on their name than their ability level – so I’m going to lay the Dutch hosts here at decent odds of 21/20.
Verdict: Lay Netherlands U21 at 21/20.
Accumulator fodder:
Brazil U20, Deportes Tolima, Morocco, Malaysia, Netherlands, Spain, El Salvador, Finland U21.
Recommended bets:
Netherlands and Germany at 2/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Copa Sudamericano U20:
Colombia vs Chile (4) over 2.5 goals
Uruguay vs Argentina (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Ecuador vs Brazil (8) 0-2
Copa Libertadores:
Fluminense vs Argentinos Juniors (8) 2-0
Deportes Tolima vs Guarani Asuncion (8) 2-0
International Friendlies:
Senegal vs Guinea (5) both sides to score
Namibia vs Malawi (6) 0-0
Libya vs Benin (7) 0-1
Nigeria vs Sierra Leone (5) both sides to score
Morocco vs Nigeria (8) under 2.5 goals
Gabon vs Democratic Republic of Congo (6) over 2.5 goals
Guinea-Bissau vs Gambia (6) over 2.5 goals (played in Portugal)
Cape Verde Islands vs Burkina Faso (6) 0-1
Swaziland vs Zambia (6) 1-2
Malaysia vs Hong Kong (8) 2-0
Tanzania vs Palestine (6) 1-0
Kuwait vs Uzbekistan (6) 1-1
Moldova vs Andorra (7) under 2.5 goals (played in Portugal)
San Marino vs Liechtenstein (6) under 2.5 goals
Greece vs Canada (6) 1-0
Armenia vs Georgia (5) both sides to score (played in Cyprus)
Belarus vs Kazakhstan (7) over 2.5 goals (played in Turkey)
Iran vs Russia (6) 0-1 (played in United Arab Emirates)
Bolivia vs Latvia (5) 1-1 (played in Turkey)
Republic of Macedonia vs Cameroon (5) both sides to score
Northern Ireland vs Scotland (5) 1-2 (played in Republic of Ireland)
Croatia vs Czech Republic (7) 2-0
Azerbaijan vs Hungary (5) 0-1
Israel vs Serbia (5) 0-0
Turkey vs South Korea (3) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Albania vs Slovenia (6) 0-0
Bulgaria vs Estonia (6) over 2.5 goals (played in Turkey)
Luxembourg vs Slovakia (6) under 2.5 goals
Denmark vs England (7) 1-1
Malta vs Switzerland (6) 0-1
Belgium vs Finland (5) 2-2
Netherlands vs Austria (8) 2-1
Poland vs Norway (6) 1-1 (played in Portugal)
Germany vs Italy (7) 2-1
France vs Brazil (6) 0-1
Argentina vs Portugal (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score (played in Switzerland)
Spain vs Colombia (8) under 2.5 goals
Honduras vs Ecuador (6) 1-1
Venezuela vs Costa Rica (5) 1-0
Mexico vs Bosnia-Herzegovina (7) 2-1 (played in USA)
El Salvador vs Haiti (9) -1.5 handicap
International Youth Friendlies:
Turkey U21 vs Romania U21 (5) 1-1
Finland U21 vs Estonia U21 (8) -1.5 handicap
Greece U21 vs Germany U21 (5) 2-1 draw no bet
Portugal U21 vs Sweden U21 (4) 1-1
Bulgaria U21 vs Cameroon U21 (6) 1-1
Cyprus U21 vs Republic of Ireland U21 (5) under 2.5 goals
Israel U21 vs Serbia U21 (6) 0-1
Slovenia U21 vs Croatia U21 (6) 1-2
Netherlands U21 vs Czech Republic U21 (3) 1-2, draw no bet
Wales U21 vs Northern Ireland U21 (5) 2-1
Australian A-League:
Sydney FC vs Wellington Phoenix (4) over 2.5 goals
Gold Coast United vs Central Coast Mariners (6) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!