Gimnasia De La Plata vs Estudiantes De La Plata
FreeSeldom have I seen so much value on a wednesday but there we go!
Today’s featured game is the Argentinian Primera Division derby between Gimnasia De La Plata and Estudiantes De La Plata. Hosts Gimnasia De La Plata have well and truly fallen into the shadow of their more illustrious neighbours in recent years and haven’t won a derby game against Estudiantes in their last nine meetings at either ground, losing seven times and drawing twice.
Hosts Gimnasia De La Plata started their Clausura campaign the same way that their Apertura campaign ended – badly. They lost their last five games consecutively in the Apertura and have already travelled to fellow strugglers Godoy Cruz de Mendoza in the Clausura and lost without much of a fight. Godoy Cruz are not the most solid of sides defensively, far from it, but a woeful Gimnasia were simply unable to break them down. Although I accept that mentalities and determination change dramatically for derby encounters, the fact remains that Gimnasia simply aren’t a good side whatsoever and are going to struggle immensely to get a result against their more illustrious rivals. Gimnasia have only avoided defeat against Estudiantes twice in their last nine meetings so they’ve got one hell of a task to break that today as I personally feel that Gimnasia are playing some of their worst football for some years now. This fact is illustrated perfectly by the fact that only eventual bottom-placed club Tigre lost as many games at home as Gimnasia De La Plata did in the Apertura with both sides losing six games although Tigre only played nine home games and Gimnasia played ten. Ultimately, the hosts simply aren’t good enough to take anything from this game barring some kind of miracle so really should taste defeat for the second time this season.
Visitors Estudiantes De La Plata are currently rated as one of the best sides in Argentina along with Velez Sarsfeld and it’s no secret as to why; it’s because they’re bloody good! Their away form in the Apertura wasn’t as convincing as it should have been but I personally attribute that to their dedicated Copa Libertadores campaign, of which they emerged as eventual winners following victory over Brazil’s Cruzeiro. However, Estudiantes played well on foreign soil in the World Club Cup against both Pohang Steelers of South Korea and Barcelona of Spain so it’s plain to see that they still have their ability. If there were any doubters of Estudiantes’ longevity then their fears should have been well and truly quelled by Estudiantes’ emphatic demolition of Arsenal de Sarandi in the opening game of their Clausura campaign, winning 3-0 with sought-after striker Boselli scoring twice, thus ensuring that he remained in the headlines.
Estudiantes are a class above bitter rivals Gimnasia and it tends to show in their derbies with Estudiantes having already won seven out of their last nine. Interestingly enough, both sides have scored when the derby has been played at Gimnasia for the last nine meetings so it’s something of a dead cert for both sides to score although the bookies have unfortunately recognised this with the odds being 7/10! However, on Estudiantes’ last two wins at Gimnasia, the scoreline has been 1-2 each time so a cheeky punt on the scoreline at 15/2 may be worth your consideration too, although I must confess that I’m really not convinced by Gimnasia’s lack of firepower in recent times!
Ultimately, this game would be more of a mauling if this were not a derby. The derby spirit invokes passion, determination, and confidence irrespective of current form or issues at either club, which is why it’s usually a close game at Gimnasia. However, only a fool will try to tell you anything but the cold, hard fact that Estudiantes are least twice the side that Gimnasia are and have twice the experience to boot. For me, there’s a lot of value in the away win today and even some in the scoreline!
Verdict: Estudiantes De La Plata to win at 11/10 or scoreline of 1-2 at 15/2.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Huracan vs Newell’s Old Boys – home win at 13/10.
Hosts Huracan struggled an awful lot in the Apertura last time around and finished second from bottom. Their issues were largely related to goalscoring and their lack of, basically! It’s worth noting that they can concede heavily too, although that statistic tended to relate to Huracan’s away form rather than their home form in the Apertura. However, Huracan have began their current campaign with some real fire and were unlucky to lose 3-2 at Lanus, particularly as they led 2-0 at half-time and conceded twice in the last ten minutes of the game. Good sides can do that to you and Lanus are certainly a good side in my books. However, Huracan’s resilience and ability to score goals both went up in my estimations and although they lost the game, I can’t see Huracan having taken too many negatives from this encounter.
Visitors Newell’s Old Boys had a terrific Apertura campaign last time around and finished second, thus earning them a Copa Libertadores qualification spot. However, I’m not taken in by their lofty finish; I don’t rate Newell’s Old Boys too highly. They performed well in the Apertura but I’ll be surprised to see a repeat of this in the Clausura because I don’t believe they’re good enough to do it and I don’t believe they’re good enough to deal with the additional pressure of playing against sides who thus try harder against you because of your previous campaign. I think we’ve seen symptoms of this already with Newell’s Old Boys failing to score at home to poor travelling Emelec Guayaquil in the Copa Libertadores Qualifying Round 1st leg (result 0-0) and then failing to score at home to Independiente, a side that they’ve scored against in their last three meetings at either ground with the result being yet another 0-0. Newell’s Old Boys’ defence is clearly as astute as it was last season but their goalscoring has already started to pale and they’re looking a tad unsure ahead of this game. However, what really tips the scale for this bet in my opinion is the fact that Newell’s Old Boys have a tough home game with Boca Juniors in just two days time and then travel to Ecuador to take on Emelec Guayaquil in a game that they have to win so I really can’t see Newell’s Old Boys fielding a full-strength squad for a game against a side that they don’t consider to be as good as themselves, hence the intrigue which has how arisen in your minds!
I cannot stress how much of a risk this bet is because Huracan will have to be at their best to break down a stubborn Newell’s Old Boys defence. However, Newell’s Old Boys aren’t scoring goals, they’re looking uncertain, and their focus is on the forthcoming games instead of this one so I feel it’s worth a cheeky and valuable punt on a home win tonight.
Verdict: Huracan to win at 13/10.
Banfield vs Argentinos Juniors – home win at 5/6.
Hosts Banfield had a terrific Apertura campaign and are well-placed to continue their great football into their Clausura campaign. Banfield have already claimed a difficult and very impressive win at River Plate in their opening game of the Clausura and will carry their strong momentum gained from this result into their home encounter with Argentinos Juniors. Banfield were one of the best home sides in the Primera Division last year with seven wins in nine games whilst averaging scoring nearly two goals per game and being the lowest conceding side, averaging conceding just under a goal per every two games. Banfield have impressed me a lot over the last couple of years and I cannot stress enough how much you must not underestimate them at the present time – they’re more than capable of reproducing the form that saw them win the Apertura last time around.
Visitors Argentinos Juniors over-achieved last year and will be fortunate to reproduce that form, in my opinion. They’ve already drawn at home to Boca Juniors in the Clausura and whereas that isn’t a result to be scoffed at, I feel Argentinos should have been able to beat a Boca Juniors side that are far from their best at the moment. Well, I’d feel that if I believed Argentinos had what it takes to mount a similar campaign as they did last time around! Argentinos forged their success in the Aperutra by being hard to beat rather than by playing particularly well, which is why they were only beaten three times in the whole campaign. They only lost two away games in nine and were usually able to match their opponents. However, times have changed, in my opinion, and I think were going to see a weaker Argentinos Juniors this time around.
Although Argentinos Juniors were one of the few sides able to escape from away game with Banfield in the Apertura, it’s worth mentioning that Banfield have beaten them for three out of their last four home games and have scored at least two goals in every game. You get the impression that Argentinos Juniors are going to have to play very well to take anything from this game and I just don’t think they’re capable of producing that kind of display currently.
Verdict: Banfield to win at 5/6.
Boca Juniors vs Lanus – lay Boca Juniors at 5/6.
Boca Juniors still haven’t smoothed over all the cracks that appeared in their club in their last Apertura campaign. Boca finished eleventh in the table and won just seven games out of nineteen, which simply isn’t good enough for a club of Boca’s size and status within Argentina and indeed South America as a whole. They won five out of ten home games, which is ok, but again, not really convincing for Boca. Considering their poor league placing in the Apertura, a 2-2 draw at Argentinos Juniors in their opening Clausura game may actually prove to more beneficial to them than it was to their hosts, which is bizarre but accurate. Boca have only beaten Lanus once in their last three home games and the visitors are rapidly proving themselves to be a very difficult side to play in Argentina as the tides turn en mass so we should see a very interesting game here tonight.
Visitors Lanus have impressed me a lot over the last couple of years. As I’ve mentioned above, they’ve become a very tough side to play against and were in fact the only side in the whole of the Primera Division that didn’t lose an away game in the Apertura. This was largely due to their watertight defence conceding just seven goals in nine away games whilst averaging scoring at least once in every away game. Whereas I doubt that Lanus will be able to repeat that feat in the Clausura, I don’t doubt that their ability is still there and they’re in better shape than Boca Juniors currently. Despite falling 2-0 behind at home to Huracan in their opening Clausura game, Lanus had the determination and ability to come back and win the game 3-2 by fighting to the end. Lanus will have taken a lot of momentum from that game so it should be interesting to see how they perform tonight against a Boca Juniors side that are yet to convince.
All in all, these are two sides that I’d possibly put on a par with each other, at least for this encounter. Lanus are probably a shade better than Boca at the moment so I certainly feel that there’s enough information above favouring the away side for them to at least take a draw away from Boca today.
Verdict: Lay Boca Juniors at 5/6.
Sint-Truiden vs Westerlo – away win at 11/5.
I’d love to be able to vindicate this more than I can but I simply can’t, so caution must be emphasised with this one!
Basically, I rate Westerlo as a much better side than Sint-Truiden. Westerlo’s away form has been poor this season with six defeats in ten games, too few scored, and too many conceded. However, this side is really capable of playing football and I don’t feel that their statistics are really very reflective of that. For example, let’s look at their recent games. They’ve not won in six Eerste Klasse games but those games have included trips to Club Brugge, Racing Genk, Zulte-Waregem and Kortrijk, four sides I wouldn’t expect them to win against on the road. Westerlo’s home games have been with an inspired Anderlecht and AA Gent, two sides they’d have to play remarkably well to beat, as would any Belgian side. With that in mind, I really wouldn’t read too much into their recent form. I can’t deny that Westerlo have let themselves down more times than not this season but I do feel that they’re better than Sint-Truiden. The hosts are a difficult side to beat but they’re not as good as Westerlo. Although Sint-Truiden have adjusted well to life in Eerste Klasse, let’s not forget that they have just been promoted from the Tweede Klasse so they are caught out on occasion.
For one final statistic, consider this one. I thought of the away win prior to viewing the head-to-head encounters but just take a look at this – Westerlo have won the last seven meetings between these two sides at either ground and have only conceded one goal overall whilst scoring twelve. This information backs up my call and although it does remain a risky bet, at least there’s something more concrete for us to build upon!
Verdict: Westerlo to win at 11/5.
Beveren vs KVSK United – away win at 11/10.
Beveren have really under-achieved this season and I can only pin it down to a lack of ruthlessness in front of goal. They’ve played eleven home games in the Tweede Klasse this year and have only been beaten twice despite being just outside the relegation zone. The fact is that Beveren have drawn six of those games, a record matched only by bottom club Tournai and high-flying Tubize. Don’t be fooled – Beveren are a very capable side, something which is at least partially evident from the fact that they’re unbeaten in their last five games, conceding just twice along the way. Beveren will make life very hard for KVSK United tonight but don’t really have the offensive power to trouble them despite their 4-1 thrashing of Eupen last match, which I consider to be a one-off from their current predicament!
Visitors KVSK United are a side that I much prefer to back at home rather than away but frankly their momentum is terrific. They’ve won seven consecutive games and the world is currently their oyster. They’ve scored fifteen goals along the way (an average of over two goals per game) and conceded just four times so I suspect a goal-shy Beveren are going to have much impact against KVSK United from an attacking perspective. Only Oostende and Red Star Waasland have kept a clean sheet against KVSK United in the Tweede Klasse this year so we should have a tremendous game on our hands tonight where something has to give way. KVSK have only won four out of nine away games so I’m relying rather heavily on their superb momentum but ultimately they’ve got the quality in their squad to score at least one goal and hold it against a difficult but goal-shy Beveren tonight.
Verdict: KVSK United to win at 11/10.
Antwerp vs Dender – home win at 10/11.
Antwerp are another Tweede Klasse side that have let themselves down so far this season and currently occupy ninth place. They had a nightmare start to the season but they are finally starting to come around with no defeats in their past six games and two wins along the way to boot. They’ve gained impressive results by drawing at Eupen, which was the catalyst for their success, and they’ve now gone unbeaten in four away games as a result. Antwerp aren’t just keeping sides out but they’re matching them, even by scoring goals themselves, which is pleasing to see. Antwerp have only won four out of ten home games this season but just two defeats in that time shows how strong Antwerp can be at home. Antwerp haven’t scored as many goals at home as they’d have liked this season but they’re beginning to show their true potential and have now notched up eight goals in their past six games. Antwerp haven’t conceded in either of their last two home games, winning once and drawing once, so I think it’s fair to say that they’re bringing a good level of momentum into this game.
Visitors Dender are yet another good Tweede Klasse side that are under-achieving. Following relegation from the Eerste Klasse last year, Dender have looked a shadow of their former selves and currently find themselves just three points away from the relegation zone. They’ve not won in their past five Tweede Klasse games and have lost three of those. Speaking of sides that don’t score enough goals – Dender have managed to notch up just three goals in those five games, which obviously isn’t enough. Dender tend to be quite efficient in preventing sides from scoring but this is yet another ability of theirs which has abandoned them of late with Dender conceding eight goals in those five games. Dender have only been beaten four times on the road in ten games so it’s more than evident that they do have ability; they’re simply not harnessing it at the moment.
This was quite a difficult call to make as both sides are capable sides that are under-achieving and probably level pegging talent-wise. However, Antwerp are looking better of late, they’re scoring goals and they’ve got strong momentum so I feel that they’re going to overcome a Dender side that everyone is enjoying the rub of the green against lately.
Verdict: Dender to win at 10/11.
Blackpool vs West Bromwich Albion – away win at 13/10.
Hosts Blackpool are a good, solid, home side that I used to enjoy betting on because they’re reliable. However, they’ve become increasingly unstable in recent times and have won just once in their last six home games in all competitions, drawing twice and losing three times. Blackpool have played some decent sides at home but frankly they should be beating most of them i.e. Sheffield Wednesday, Ipswich Town, Barnsley etc. Sides have had to score a few goals to overcome Blackpool as the hosts have scored in all of their six most recent home games but that has been Blackpool’s Achilles heel – conceding. They’ve conceded eleven goals in their last six home games, which explains why they’ve had so many problems of late. Blackpool won’t lie down and make this easy but their weakness couldn’t be potentially exposed as much as it could be tonight by an attacking West Bromwich Albion side.
Visitors West Bromwich Albion are one of the most potent sides in the Championship with fifty-five goals scored in twenty-seven games this season, which is an average of over two goals per game – a phenomenal recod, to be blunt, and one that no other Championship side can currently match. Only Cardiff City and Middlesbrough have scored more away goals than WBA have this season with the visitors notching up two goals per away game on average. WBA have only lost one away game all season in the Championship but have won six times, which makes them a threat. WBA are far more focal on the attacking side of football rather than the defensive side of things, which is admirable but also suicidal on occasion. For that reason, I expect a lot of goals in this game but ultimately WBA should emerge with the points.
Blackpool a tough side for any side to take on but a freescoring WBA really shouldn’t be troubled unduly by a leaky Blackpool side at the moment. WBA’s win against Sheffield United last match has given them good momentum and they’ve got enough potency to secure three points here tonight.
Verdict: West Bromwich Albion to win at 13/10.
Leeds United vs Tottenham Hotspur – away win at 5/6.
I can’t fathom these odds at all! Leeds United are a good, solid, and well-organised side but they’re not even half as good as Tottenham Hotspur and that’s simply an undeniable fact. Leeds fought bravely on their trip to White Hart Lane in the initial tie between the two sides and probably deserved the draw based entirely on their valiant display. However, for long periods of the game Leeds were totally outclassed by Tottenham and were fortunate to not find themselves four goals down. Leeds had their fair share of chances too, don’t get me wrong, but Tottenham are more than capable of winning this game 4-0 tonight and I would not be surprised if it happened. Leeds are not going to lie down for this game; they’re going to make it very difficult indeed for the Londonders. However, they’ve played a lot of games of late and are started to tire and it’s never easy to face a bigger and better side when you’ve got a weary squad.
Visitors Tottenham can only be faulted of late by not taking as many chances as they should. However, we all know that the dam can burst anytime and I expect it very soon. Tottenham have a very high level of potency in their attacking options and they’re sure to utilise them tonight. Tottenham boss Harry Redknapp rates the FA Cup very highly because he’s an old-school manager who was brought up with the tradition of the FA Cup being very important so I fully expect Tottenham to field a full-strength line-up tonight. Aside from that reasoning, Tottenham are more than aware that their biggest threat to actually winning this trophy solely lies with Chelsea now with Liverpool, Arsenal, and Manchester United all already out. Redknapp has a history with domestic trophies in England and I expect that to continue tonight. Frankly, a full-strength Tottenham side should have far too much for a plucky Leeds United side and frankly the odds on the away win are a steal, in my opinion.
Verdict: Tottenham Hotspur to win at 5/6.
PSV Eindhoven vs FC Utrecht – under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
There’s only so much you can write for this call but I’ll do my best for you! PSV Eindhoven are a funny side in the sense that they either batter a side or really struggle with them at home – they don’t really have a middle ground. Of late, PSV have struggled with the more feisty sides like Roda JC and Vitesse Arnhem, not managing to score against either side. Neither side can match PSV for quality but sometimes the attack of PSV can be somewhat two-dimensional and can be defended against by well-organised sides with two banks of four. PSV have only scored more than once in a game in their last four games in all competitions so their heads will have dropped a little. PSV aren’t big conceders, something that is relevant for a bet like this to work, and have only conceded eight goals at home in the Eredivisie all season long so it’s a relatively safe bet that they’ll keep another clean sheet today.
Visitors Utrecht have set their stall out in the Eredivisie this year as being one of the sides that are hard to beat. The fact that they average scoring less than a goal per away game that they play in speaks volumes about where their tactical focus lies. Only a handful of sides have conceded less goals on the road than they have this season, however, so they’re certainly successful in making a nuisance of themselves. Utrecht haven’t won in four games now so I’m not expecting a heroic display from them tonight. What I can take from their recent games pleases me; they’ve conceded just four times in their last five games (all away from home too) and have only scored twice. To say that Utrecht are boring would be something of an understatement but they’re efficient, energetic, and effective, so they’re certainly worthy of respect as opponents.
Overall, we have a PSV side not scoring many goals at the moment and conceding even less and a less able Utrecht side playing exactly the same way so this game looks to have under 2.5 goals written all over it, much as it was for both the home and away games between these two sides in the Eredivisie last season.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Real Jaen vs Polideportivo Ejido – home win at 5/6.
These odds baffle me! Real Jaen are on a good run of form at the moment are unbeaten in their last four games, winning three times and thus gaining some strong momentum along the way. Only group leaders Melilla have conceded less goals than Real Jaen have this season and today’s hosts have only conceded twice in their last four games. Real Jaen average scoring two goals per game at the moment and have already won seven out of eleven home games in their group this season. Bluntly, Real Jaen have the wind in their sails at the momen so I’d be surprised to see them fail today.
Visitors Polideportivo Ejido are a capable side but aren’t playing well at the moment. They’ve only succumbed to defeat in four of their ten away games this season, a record largely due to their stubborn defence as their goalscoring talents on the road are somewhat non-existent! However, their defence will be tested by a mometum-driven Real Jaen today, particularly with Polideportivo Ejido without a win in four games, losing their last three games consecutively. Polideportivo Ejido haven’t conceded excessively during this run but the fact that they’ve not scored in any of their last four games shows why they’re struggling so much. With zero momentum and many goal-shy displays, I cannot see a way that Polideportivo Ejido will take points from this game.
It’s not often a Segunda B game will compete with any of my selections for “game of the day” but this certainly came a close second. There’s a lot of value in this selection for an in-form and potent Real Jaen to overcome a Polideportivo Ejido side bereft of confidence and goals today.
Verdict: Real Jaen to win at 5/6.
Recommended bets:
Cruzeiro, Anderlecht, PSV Eindhoven, Real Jaen, and Tottenham Hotspur at 8/1.
Twente Enschede, AFC Ajax Amsterdam, SL Benfica, Banfield, and Estudiantes De La Plata at 8/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Copa Libertadores:
Cruzeiro vs Real Potosi (10) -1.75 handicap
Estudiantes Tecos vs Juan Aurich (6) over 2.5 goals
Argentinian Primera Division:
Gimnasia De La Plata vs Estudiantes De La Plata (7) 1-2
Huracan vs Newell’s Old Boys (4) 1-0
Banfield vs Argentinos Juniors (7) 1-0
Boca Juniors vs Lanus (6) 1-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Anderlecht vs Club Brugge (8) over 2.5 goals
Sint-Truiden vs Westerlo (5) 1-2
Belgian Tweede Klasse:
Tournai vs Boussu Dour Borinage (7)
Mons vs Eupen (6)
Beveren vs KVSK United (6)
Ronse vs Turnhout (6)
Standaard Wetteren vs Red Star Waasland (6)
Lierse vs Oostende (7)
Antwerp vs Dender (7)
Tienen vs OH Leuven (7)
English Premier League:
Fulham vs Portsmouth (8) 2-0
English Championship:
Blackpool vs West Bromwich Albion (7) over 2.5 goals
English FA Cup:
Leeds United vs Tottenham Hotspur (8) 1-2
Dutch Eredivisie:
Groningen vs ADO Den Haag (7) 1-0
Twente Enschede vs Heracles Almelo (7) under 2.5 goals
PSV Eindhoven vs FC Utrecht (8) under 2.5 goals
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Roda JC Kerkrade (9) -1.75 handicap
Sparta Rotterdam vs Vitesse Arnhem (5) 1-1
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
SL Benfica vs Uniao de Leiria (9) over 2.5 goals
Singaporean S-League:
Armed Forces vs Geylang United (8) over 2.5 goals
Spanish Segunda B:
Real Jaen vs Polideportivo Ejido (8)
Enjoy your free betting tips!