Gimnasia De La Plata vs Olimpo
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First of all, I don’t like much at all today – smells like a real shitter of a day. I’m open to being proven wrong but I’d use minimal or no stakes today, depending on how addicted to gambling you are!
Today’s game is the Argentinian Primera Division encounter between Gimnasia De La Plata and Olimpo. Gimnasia have more reason to win their games in the Clausura than most other sides given that they’re on the brink of relegation so it’s reasonable to expect some spirited displays from the hosts in the current campaign.
To be fair on Gimnasia, their problem hasn’t been defending – they keep sides out easily enough. Their problem has been scoring goals and they need to improve it immediately to stave off relegation. They started the current campaign well with a draw at goal-shy San Lorenzo de Almagro and will look to win this game with that momentum to get the ball rolling in the right direction.
So what have Gimnasia done over the break to bolster their squad? Well, they signed former academy product Guillermo Barros Schelotto, who you may recall from his time with Boca Juniors. However, he’s a club legend for Gimnasia and even at thirty-seven years of age, he’s still got a great touch and lends some much-needed creativity to this side so I think his acquisition from Columbus Crew was a good move. Gimnasia have also signed Spanish youngster Pacheco from Independiente to provide a fresh face in their attack, which will help the likes of Graf, Neira, and Cordoba keep on their toes so I think Gimnasia have been quite smart in this window. Let’s face it – it’s now or never for the hosts and I think they’ve got what it takes to win this game tonight if they take their chances, especially as the more experienced of these two sides.
Olimpo are a decent side but they’ve yet to adapt to playing away from home since being promoted, losing eight times in ten away games. They do bring momentum into this game following a 2-1 win against Banfield last match but before you get carried away about them beating a supposedly good side, please bear in mind that Banfield not only lost their manager but some important players during the window – I’m just kicking myself that I took Olimpo to win that game at 7/5 off my final draft! Olimpo have strengthened too over the window, bringing in ex-Estudiantes De La Plata striker Maggiolo to aid their cause in front of goal and needless to say that he’ll be a long way from the most popular player on the field tonight. They also signed ex-Velez Sarsfield full-back Federico Dominguez from Argeninos Juniors, which is another signature that adds experience to this largely inexperienced side. In the long-term, I think both moves are good for Olimpo but I’m still not convinced that they have enough to do well in this game, especially due to their lax approach to defending, so I have to favour the hosts here.
I’d approach this game with caution because Gimnasia are not a prolific side and if they fall behind then the chances of them winning the game decline dramatically in my eyes. However, if they take the lead, then they really should hold it and as Olimpo are one of the few sides that Gimnasia are still better than in this division, the home win at 21/20 appeals to me tonight, especially with Olimpo’s important Paraguayan striker Bareiro absent for this match.
Team news – Olimpo miss Bareiro for this game.
Verdict: Gimnasia De La Plata to win at 21/20.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Banfield vs Colon de Santa Fe – both sides to score at evens.
As I mentioned briefly above, Banfield parted with manager Falconi in the window as Boca Juniors snapped him up although it’s fairly inevitable that Boca will sack him soon enough due to their stupidity. This has done a lot of damage to Banfield as he built that team and it showed against Olimpo, especially in defence, which is Banfield’s only strong area nowadays. They’ve signed two “risky” players – ex-Newells Old Boys striker Achucarro from Atlas in Mexico, who had a barren spell out there, but Banfield hope he’ll recapture Primera Division form with them. They’ve also taken the plunge on experienced Uruguayan attacking midfielder De Souza as they bid to become a more general Primera Division side by attacking more and scoring more. I think the transition may work for them long-term but in the short-term, I expect a lot of disruption so I don’t see them doing much in this game, although it cannot be denied that they do have the quality to at least score in this game.
Colon de Santa Fe won their opening Clausura game 2-0 against a poor Quilmes side so they do bring some momentum into this game. Colon were quite astute during the transfer window, signing towering centre-back Humberto Mendoza from Atletico Nacional de Medellin to bolster their leaky defence, promising Paraguayan midfielder Zaracho from Sport Colombia, and taking a chance on Chacarita Juniors attacker Cano. I can’t speak for Cano – I’ve not seen enough of him – but the other two signings look very useful for Colon as they seek to push on in the Primera Division. Colon to tend to register a goal away from home when they’re not outclassed and nowadays they tend to be able to hold their own against most sides so they need to be given careful consideration here. Their defence will still be susceptible until Mendoza is bedded in properly but their attack is still dangerous with old hand Fuentes, grafter Higuain, and hitman Larrivey in attack so I think Colon have enough to breach an unsteady Banfield defence tonight.
For me, the odds on both sides scoring are too generous here – they look based on the old Banfield rather than the new Banfield – so backing both sides to score here looks favourable in my eyes.
Team news – Banfield miss Zelaya and have doubts over Barraza.
Verdict: Both sides to score at evens.
RBC Roosendaal vs Cambuur Leeuwarden – away win at 6/5.
Ever since RBC Roosendaal lost manager Capa to Kasimpasa back in December, they’ve looked pretty damn poor in most areas of the field. They’re conceding heavily on a regular basis, they look disorganised, and they’re not scoring goals, which is basically a pathway to disaster as RBC have discovered with four defeats in their last five games, scoring just twice along the way. Morale is low and they’re facing a superior Cambuur side today so they can’t possibly be looking forward to this game. Cambuur have pissed me off a lot this season by under-performing on a grandiose scale – you’d never guess that they were one of the top few sides in the Eerste Divisie based on their random displays this season. However, they’ve looked good lately, gathering momentum from three consecutive wins whilst scoring nine times along the way so I have to give them a chance here. They’ve actually bagged twelve goals in four games now so they’re starting to get back to their best in a late bid to be promoted to the Eredivisie so they should be taken seriously here. Cambuur aren’t the most secure side defensively but they’re good in attack and given that the sleeping dragon has now officially been poked in the eye, I think Cambuur look good value at 6/5.
Verdict: Cambuur Leeuwarden to win at 6/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Leicester City, Olympique Lyonnais, RKC Waalwijk.
Recommended bets:
No multiples appeal to me today, sorry guys!
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Gimnasia De La Plata vs Olimpo (6) 1-0
Banfield vs Colon de Santa Fe (5) both sides to score
Australian A-League:
Adelaide United vs Wellington Phoenix (6) over 2.5 goals
Chilean Primera Division:
La Serena vs Audax Italiano (6) over 2.5 goals
Nublense vs O’Higgins (4) 0-1, draw no bet
Santiago Wanderers vs Palestino (6) 1-1
Colombian Primera A:
Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Huila (7) over 2.5 goals
English Championship:
Leicester City vs Bristol City (8)
English League One:
Port Vale vs Bradford City (6) under 2.5 goals
Finnish Liiga Cup:
Haka Valkeakoski vs HJK Helsinki (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Inter Turku vs FC Honka Espoo (6) 1-1
French Ligue 1:
Olympique Lyonnais vs AS Nancy-Lorraine (8) 2-1
French Ligue 2:
AC Ajaccio vs Evian Thonon Gaillard (5)
Angers SCO vs Nimes (6)
Chateauroux vs Stade Lavallois (5) under 2.5 goals
Clermont Foot vs Sedan-Ardennes (5) both sides to score
Dijon FCO vs Le Havre (6) under 2.5 goals
Grenoble Foot vs Istres (4)
Nantes vs Metz (5) at least one red card in this game
Reims vs Vannes OC (6)
Tours vs Troyes (6) over 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga:
Nurnberg vs Eintracht Frankfurt (5) under 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga 2:
1860 Munich vs Augsburg (5) both sides to score
VfL Bochum vs Fortuna Dusseldorf (6) both sides to score
Ingolstadt vs Greuther Furth (6)
Italian Serie B:
Grosseto vs Empoli (7)
Mexican Primera Division:
Estudiantes Tecos vs Atlante (5) 1-1
San Luis vs Pumas UNAM (4) 1-2
Dutch Eredivisie:
FC Utrecht vs Heracles Almelo (7) 2-1
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Volendam vs Zwolle (5) both sides to score
RBC Roosendaal vs Cambuur Leeuwarden (6)
Sparta Rotterdam vs Telstar (6)
Almere City vs Dordrecht ’90 (6) over 2.5 goals
Fortuna Sittard vs Helmond Sport (4)
Eindhoven vs MVV Maastricht (5) both sides to score
AGOVV Appeldoorn vs Veendam (5)
RKC Waalwijk vs Emmen (8) over 2.5 goals
Go Ahead Eagles vs Den Bosch (6)
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Uniao de Leiria vs Vitoria Guimaraes (6) 0-0
Singaporean S-League:
Gombak United vs Tampines Rovers (5) 1-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Girona vs Alcorcon (4)
Turkish Super Lig:
Eskisehirspor vs Sivasspor (6) 2-1
Welsh Premier League:
Aberystwyth Town vs Bala Town (6) 1-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!