Goias vs Atletico Mineiro
FreeToday’s featured game is the Serie A game between Goias and Atletico Mineiro in Brazil. Both sides are battling against the dreaded drop so we should see a hard-fought game between two relatively poor sides tonight as a result.
Looking at hosts Goias first, however – bottom of the table after seventeen games with three wins all season – it doesn’t look good, does it? Goias fans have reason for concern too as their side just doesn’t score enough goals to drag themselves away from the relegation zone. Only newly-promoted Ceara and striker-less Flamengo have scored as few goals as they have this season but even those two sides can’t match Goias’ paltry record of six goals scored in eight home games. It speaks volumes as to why Goias have won just once in those eight games, drawing three times and losing four times along the way. They don’t concede many at home, to their credit, but just one goal can be a killer if you don’t score the goals to match your opponents. The problem in the squad obviously starts with quality; something they have very little of. Their best striker is Everton Santos and even he’s not able to hold this club up on his own. Where else is the stability in their squad – Rafael Toloi? Too young. Amaral and Jonilson in midfield? Maybe. There’s not enough leaders in this side and not enough goalscorers so Goias are in a very bad way indeed, particularly on the back of four consecutive defeats with one goal scored and nine goals conceded.
Visitors Atletico Mineiro aren’t a particularly bad side in all honesty – they just can’t defend. Naturally, they have their key players that bail them out from tricky situations, namely experienced midfielder Ricardinho and ex-PSV Eindhoven striker Diego Tardelli in attack, who is their leading goalscorer. That’s two “match winners” that they boast over their hosts Goias as Goias really lack that extra edge when they have possession – someone to make something happen. Manager Vanderlei Luxemburgo knows the script; he’s been around long enough and is good enough to keep Atletico in the division, in my opinion. Like most Brazilian clubs, Atletico Mineiro struggled to hold onto their more important players from last season with Jonilson moving to Goias, Renan moving to Guarani, Thiago moving to Atletico Goianiense etc. Most notable was the departure of Tardelli’s strike partner Eder Luis, who moved to SL Benfica for a brief loan spell. He returned to Mineiro at the start of August but has failed to recapture the form that saw he and Tardelli forge one of the most lethal strike duos in Brazil last season. Atletico Mineiro are very much a home side which is why they’ve struggled on the road this season and I don’t expect anything different tonight although I have to confess that I do rate them as a better side than Goias.
So – a Goias side that doesn’t score goals at home against an Atletico Mineiro side that doesn’t score goals away! Five out of Atletico’s last six away games have gone under 2.5 goals and four out of Goias’ last six home games have gone under 2.5 goals. Five out of the last six meetings between these two sides have gone under 2.5 goals and with neither side keen on scoring and both probably happy to take a draw here, my call is under 2.5 goals at slightly generous odds.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 17/20.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Vitoria vs Internacional – home win at 13/10.
This was a contender for game of the day because I have an awful lot of faith in Vitoria at home as they consistently demonstrate year after year just how hard a region Bahia is to travel to. They’re not free of the relegation zone yet but I have very little doubt in saying I’m confident they’ll avoid relegation because of their excellent home form. They’ve played eight home games this season, winning four times, drawing three times, and losing just once. They abandon their usually strong defence when playing at home in favour of a more ruthless attacking football and as a result, only Corinthians and Avai have scored more than they have at home this season in Serie A. It’s also worth noting that Vitoria do concede a lot of goals with their haphazard attacking football with only Atletico Mineiro the only side to have conceded as many goals as Vitoria have at home this season. However, Vitoria have looked strong lately with two wins (at home to Santos and away against Cruzeiro), a valiant defeat at Corinthians last match, and an unimpressive 1-1 draw with Guarani although that’s the only blemish in their last four games, in my opinion. Generally speaking, the only way to stop Vitoria taking points at home is to outscore them, as obvious as it may sound. Vitoria haven’t failed to score in a Serie A home game since November 2009 so you know what you’re up against when you face them away from home!
Visitors Internacional have suffered something of a contintenal hangover after beating Mexican side Guadalajara in the Copa Libertadores final with a string of unconvincing results following that historic result. They’ve drawn at home to lowly Atletico Goianiense but have then beaten both Avai away and Botafogo at home, which looks good on paper but their performances haven’t impressed me, to be honest. They’ve won their last two games 1-0, which is fair enough – a win is a win, after all. However, they’re facing a side tonight that almost certainly will score against them and with Internacional looking as impotent as ever, it’s hard to see them doing damage to their hosts tonight. The reason they’ve struggled moreso than normal of late is because star striker Alecsandro and Argentinian midfielder Guinazu have both been missing through injury since the Copa Libertadores final and if the information I’ve been given is correct then they’ll both miss this game too. To go to Vitoria with an under-strength side is never a good idea and although Internacional don’t concede many on the road, they don’t score vast amounts either, particularly without Alecsandro, who has scored over a third of their goals away from home this season. His replacement Rafael Sobis isn’t what he used to be and his lacklustre displays haven’t impressed me whatsoever so altogether, Internacional should have problems tonight.
Vitoria have beaten Internacional at home for three consecutive seasons now and I don’t see an Internacional side playing tonight that is capable of rectifying that record. For that to happen, they’re going to need goalkeeper Renan in top form, midfield duo Andrezinho and D’Alessandro in top form, and striker Rafael Sobis back to his best and I personally feel all of the above are rather a long shot. Vitoria are always solid at home because of the united front that they present so for me, this game has the hallmarks of a scrappy but valuable home win for Vitoria against continentally-hungover Internacional.
Verdict: Vitoria to win at 13/10.
Atletico Paranaense vs Ceara – home win at 9/10.
This one’s considerably easier to write about – one good home side against one very poor side! Simple! No defeats in three games for Atletico gives them the momentum to do well tonight, particularly as they’ve won two of those games and kept two clean sheets along the way. They’ve played Santos, Sao Paulo, Flamengo, and Gremio in their last four games and have won twice and drawn twice, which should give you some indication as to how good they are at home. They don’t score enough goals in general but a weak Ceara side should play a part there. I know statistics show that Ceara are a strong defensive unit but that was under their first and second manager respectively. Their third manager of this season is attempting a more suicidal attacking football. It’s a respectable aim, I admit, but it’s a foolhardy one because Ceara are really a very poor side. Look upon them as a type of Stoke City of the Brazilian Serie A and you’ll know what I mean (and that’s no insult to Stoke, incidentally!) – if they abandon their defensive shape, they get ripped apart. Their attacking football paid dividends at home to Gremio in a 2-1 win but that’s the only time it’s worked with Botafogo beating them since than and a weak Gremio Prudente claiming a 2-2 draw at Ceara last match. I basically expect Ceara to attack Atletico tonight and as Atletico are a better side, I fancy them to make the most of it. The odds are a tad lower than I’d hoped but I still like the win as Atletico’s goalscoring problems should be resolved by Ceara coming out of their shell and attacking so I expect a home win tonight. With the above in mind, over 2.5 goals at 21/20 also looks intriguing despite contradicting statistics!
Verdict: Atletico Paranaense to win at 9/10.
Ferencvaros vs Gyori ETO FC – home win at 6/5.
This is a risky call but I’m banking on Ferencvaros’ pride doing a lot of damage here. Ferencvaros are the biggest Hungarian side by a mile and their determination to be back at the top of the Soproni Liga is massive, as their active interest in the transfer market showed over summer. The acquisition of Czech attacker Marek Heinz was an inspired one both for his experience and ability and he’s shown glimpses of his ability for Ferencvaros already this season, happily. Serbian midfielder Stanic was signed from Disogyori VTK after an impressive campaign too so Ferencvaros haven’t exactly rested on their laurels having avoided relegation after their first season back in the top flight of Hungarian football. Their battling spirit and intense support often gives them an extra man so you’ll rarely find me going against Ferencvaros. However, those two aspects combined can also result in Ferencvaros losing a man, as it proved in the derby at home to Budapest Honved lately, where the afore-mentioned Stanic was dismissed in Ferencvaros’ only defeat of the season thus far. Although Ferencvaros’ defence is questionable, their attack rarely is as they’ve proven by scoring at least once in all of their games so far this season so my only doubt here is whether they’ll outscore their opponents or not, although a draw at impressive Fehervar last match has certainly done enough to convince me that they’re a lot more capable this season than they were last season.
It aids my bet that Gyori ETO FC have had European committments for some time now because their squad is looking rather stretched. Finding an adequate replacement for departed Estonian midfielder/striker Tarmo Kink has proved tricky, as has the departure of midfielder Jozsi to their hosts today. Gyori ETO FC still have a very capable squad and their strength has always been defence so the challenge is for Ferencvaros to shatter it today. However, given that Gyori have only just returned from Croatia to play their fourth game in twelve days, you have to fancy the visitors to be a little jaded here. Their overall domestic displays this season have looked rather jaded and understandably so – European football has to be their priority. However, despite Gyori’s defence looking about as strong as usual, their attack doesn’t look as threatening and with tiredness sure to be a factor here, I find it hard to be very concerned about Gyori today, as dangerous as that could prove to be.
Ferencvaros beat title candidates Gyori ETO FC 1-0 here last season and in general have a very strong home record against their visitors today, a record that stretches back to the 90’s so the hosts know how to beat the pretenders to what they believe is their throne. Ferencvaros are strengthening year by year and it shouldn’t be too long before they’re competing with Debreceni VSC, Gyori ETO FC, and Fehervar for the Soproni Liga title. Visitors Gyori ETO FC are finding life in the spotlight a little harder than normal and a trip to volatile Ferencvaros at this stage of the season should be considered rather unwelcome. I therefore think that the odds on the home win are decent value although this should be a close game nonetheless.
Verdict: Ferencvaros to win at 6/5.
Recommended bets:
Singles only today, guys – I don’t like any multiples, unfortunately!
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
Copa Sudamericana:
River Plate Montevideo vs Guarani Asuncion (6) 2-1
Trujillanos vs Atletico Huila (4) 2-1, draw no bet
Brazilian Serie A:
Vitoria vs Internacional (6) 2-1
Gremio vs Guarani (4) 1-1
Gremio Prudente vs Botafogo (4) 1-2, draw no bet
Goias vs Atletico Mineiro (5) under 2.5 goals
Cruzeiro vs Flamengo (6) 1-0
Atletico Paranaense vs Ceara (7) over 2.5 goals
Fluminense vs Palmeiras (7) 2-1
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Zalaegerszegi TE vs Lombard Papa (5) over 2.5 goals
Ferencvaros vs Gyori ETO FC (6) 2-1
Singaporean S-League:
Beijing Guoan vs Tampines Rovers (7) over 2.5 goals
Swedish Superettan:
Angelholm vs Assyriska Sodertalje (4) draw no bet
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Aragua vs Deportivo Lara (5) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!