Gombak United vs Hougang United
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Singaporean S-League encounter between Gombak United and Hougang United. In case you were wondering, Hougang United were in the S-League last season but under the name “Sengkang Punggol” so they’re not newcomers to the division as it’s actually impossible to get promoted or relegated from the S-League – sides simply appear here from time to time!
Hosts Gombak United are one of the older sides in the division and one of the better ones too. The S-League is rapidly dividing into six good sides and six bad sides and Gombak are definitely one of the better sides. They’ve not been scoring as many this season as normal but their defence remains as steely as ever. Gombak have won three out of their last four S-League games so momentum is on their side here, especially as their last two home wins have been against one of the best sides in Singapore (Etoile 1-0) and bitter rivals Geylang United (2-0) so you can see the form starting to creep into their play. Their South Korean attackers Jo-Yoon Chang and Jin-Sung Kwon add a good technical level to Gombak’s play, especially with playmaker Kang-Jin Park behind them and considering that Gombak were already strong in defence, you get the impression that they’re only going to get stronger with their South Korean threesome in attack.
Visitors Hougang United, however, are getting worse. They’ve already lost four out of seven S-League games this season and have lost all of their away games. Singapore isn’t a big country; home advantage doesn’t matter an awful lot here, not since DPMM FC ceased to exist. However, Hougang United have still lost all three away games that they’ve played in whilst averaging conceding over three goals per away game. Their attack is average at best but their defence is just shoddy, to be blunt. I’ll give Hougang their dues – they’ve battled well despite some tough away games lately and they have scored in those games. However, they’ve conceded so many goals that it’s hard to take them seriously here. Hougang United are also reported to be starting two new midfielders in this game and considering that the one thing you need when facing Gombak United is stability, you have to be concerned for the visitors here.
For me, the price on Gombak United winning this game is simply too long at 4/6. Gombak have won their home game in the S-League against Hougang United/Sengkang Punggol for two seasons in a row now and although there’ll be the atypical rivalry between the hosts and their opponents due to Malaysian relations, I can’t help but feel that we’ll see a home win here.
Verdict: Gombak United to win at 4/6.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Real Madrid vs Tottenham Hotspur – lay Real Madrid at 7/4.
I can almost hear the gasps already but bear with me!
First of all, I’d like to point out that Ronaldo and Benzema are big doubts here, both of which impact Madrid’s attack immensely. Maybe they’ll feature, maybe they won’t – I have less faith in the selection if Ronaldo plays but I still think that the odds are generous.
Madrid don’t tend to play well against English sides nowadays, you see. They lost 0-1 at home to Liverpool and 4-0 at Liverpool back in 2009 and if we go back further than they lost 0-1 at home to Arsenal before drawing 0-0 away in 2006. I’m not saying we can draw vast amounts from such information other than that Spanish vs English football tends to favour English football with the exception of mighty Barcelona, who to be fair, would probably protest at me calling them “Spanish” as they’re Catalans.
Madrid have the Mourinho factor, admittedly, and he is a fantastic manager. I do question how far he can take Madrid, however – they rely an awful lot on Ronaldo despite a lot of talented players and to be honest, I don’t see Madrid winning this tournament so they’re going to have to slip up somewhere – why not against a side for whom this game is effectively a cup final?
I’m sure you’d all agree that 2/5 is too short for a UEFA Champions League Quarter-Final home game anyway, irrespective of who is playing. Spurs have done enough to earn more respect than that this season and I think to underestimate there here is foolish. You’ll undoubtedly have disloyal Van Der Vaart working his arse off to get one over on his former employers whereas Modric, Bale, and Lennon are a nightmare to handle for any defence, especially Madrid’s susceptible backine. Let’s not forget that Madrid tend to do well because they attack a lot – if they’re without the ball then you tend to see how easily their defence can be breach ala their 5-0 defeat at Barcelona. I’m not saying that Spurs are Barcelona; they’re quite clearly not. However, Madrid don’t like playing without the ball and I’m damn sure Redknapp knows that.
I’m not sure how Spurs will line up here. If they do what they did at home to AC Milan then they’re in for a long, hard, and ultimately disappointing game. If they line up in this game like they did against AC Milan away then they stand a very good chance of taking a result from the infamous Santiago Bernabeu. For me, though, Spurs have terrific attacking quality and they have the tactical knowhow to keep Madrid at bay for this game so I see a closer game emerging than the bookies do.
Again, I’d lose some faith in this tip if Ronaldo plays as he’s the best player in the world, in my eyes, but I still think that laying Real Madrid at 7/4 has value here. The only other bet that interested me was backing both sides to score at 5/6 but as Ronaldo may not play and as Spurs may sit back ala their home game with AC Milan, I’m going to overlook that bet and just lay the Spanish giants in hope of an entertaing and open game between two good attacking sides.
Team news – Real Madrid miss Marcelo, Albiol, Canales, Kaka, and Gago whilst having doubts over Ronaldo and Benzema.
Verdict: Lay Real Madrid at 7/4.
Internazionale vs Schalke 04 – under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Overrated home side versus underrated away side? Under 2.5 goals to me!
I have no doubts that Inter are the better of these two sides. However, on the back of a 3-0 humbling at bitter rivals AC Milan, their confidence is bound to have taken a knock so I don’t expect to see them strutting along here, especially after two nightmare games against German giants Bayern Munich in the last round. In Inter’s favour, only Lucio remains out now so Leonardo does have choices today and Inter should most probably nick it. However, they’re not a great goalscoring side at home, simply put. They bagged four against Spurs as Spurs were overwhelmed at the start of the game and they bagged four against Werder Bremen because they can’t defend for shit. I prefer to pay much more attention to their 1-0 win against Twente Enschede and 0-1 defeat against Bayern Munich in their last two home games in the UEFA Champions League as I feel it shows a much more real Inter side, in my opinion. The reigning champions really should progress from this tie overall but I don’t envision as easy a game for them as some do.
The other side of the coin is that Schalke 04 simply love to be underdogs. I’ve not come across a side in some time that plays so well as underdogs and so badly as favourites. They were really impressive during their 0-2 lead at St.Pauli (I say “lead” because the game was postponed near the end due to stupid locals throwing objects at the linesman and the game was thus abandoned) under new boss Rangnick and they’ll be keen to impress again tonight. They’re not as stable as they used to be defensively but they really tend to galvanise as a unit when they’re against all odds and that’s what I expect here, especially considering that the only away game that Schalke 04 have lost in the UEFA Champions League so far this season was a 1-0 defeat in France against Olympique Lyonnais in a very tight game indeed.
In my head, I can see a 1-0 win or perhaps even a really surprising 1-1 draw but I still expect Inter to progress either way. However, there should be some value in under 2.5 goals at 3/4 between two sides who don’t regularly impress in front of goal in this competition – or at least don’t in the current campaign. Therefore, my call is under 2.5 goals here.
Team news – Internazionale miss Lucio.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Libertad Asuncion vs Guarani Asuncion – home win at 11/10.
This Asuncion derby interests me because Guarani have looked shit in front of goal this season, especially so away from home. I’ve mentioned before that it’s due to them selling Fabbro and Teixeira before the start of the current campaign but now is the time for it to show on a grandiose scale, in my view. Bear in mind that their only away win was the game at newly-promoted General Caballero and consider that they’ve not scored in two of those four away games and you start to see what I’m saying, especially as they’ve lost two of them, the most recent of which was against relegation-threatened Sportivo Luqueno. Guarani have lost three out of their last four visits to face bitter rivals Libertad Asuncion and to be honest, we should see that record increase to four defeats in five visitrs if Libertad show up as they have done for most of the season thus far. The only side to leave Libertad without conceding so far this season was in-form Olimpia Asuncion in a 0-0 draw – Libertad have bagged eight goals in their other three home games and have duly won all three games as a result. Experienced Pavlovich leads the line well for the hosts and with Gamarra, Maciel, and/or Orue supporting him, I can’t help but see a home win at decent odds here tonight.
Verdict: Libertad Asuncion to win at 11/10.
Gloria Bistrita vs Universitatea Cluj – both sides to score at 11/10.
On paper, this looks a nailed on home win but I’m not so sure due to absences for both sides.
Instead, I’m expecting a more open game here as there are weaknesses to be exploited. Gloria Bistrita miss thiry-nine year old attacker Coroian for this game, not to mention attacking midfielder Predescu, regular defender Tudose, and another midfielder – Achim. Gloria Bistrita function as a unit rather than relying on individuals so these absences should hurt them today. New signing Cavalli is making all the right noises with three goals scored in five games so I expect him to do well today with such confidence in him. Let’s face it – their opponents can’t defend so Gloria Bistrita should really at least score here. However, I’m not 100% convinced that they’ll win it so I’ll avoid the 1×2 market here.
Visitors Universitatea Cluj are a terrible away side, to be frank. They’ve certainly made their mark at home since promotion but away from home, they’ve simply not done enough and do tend to be annihlated. Therefore, the absences of Buhus in defence and midfielders Mendy and Pacurar aren’t welcome here for them! However, they managed to overcome Dinamo Bucharest last match so morale is high and they’ll enter this game with great gusto as a result. They’ve scored in three out of their last five games and with playmaker Cristea starting to impress and Niculescu and Machado forming a deadly strike partnership, I think the visitors will at least score a goal here.
To be honest, I quite fancy an upset here, despite Cluj’s abysmal away record. Gloria Bistrita’s absences look quite condemning and although football doesn’t always work out the way it should, I think Cluj could sneak a cheeky win here. However, for me, there’s far more value in backing both sides to score. Cluj are shit away from home and Bistrita aren’t the most potent side in Romania but backing both sides to score at 11/10 looks unbelievably generous so that’s my call here.
Team news – Gloria Bistrita miss Tudose, Predescu, Coroian, and Achim whereas Universitatea Cluj miss Mendy, Pacurar, Buhus, Ascoli, Popa, and Szilagyi.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 11/10.
Maribor vs Primorje – lay Maribor at 2/1.
Top against bottom usually looks like a dead cert but to me, this looks far from certain.
Primorje have been Maribor’s bogey team for a while now, refusing to be beaten at Maribor in five out of their last six visits. Indeed, Maribor have beaten Primorje just once in twelve head-to-head meetings at either ground so you can see how much Maribor dread this fixture!
To be honest, I can’t name a Maribor side more likely to fuck up against Primorje than this one either. They insisted on selling a lot of players this season and it’s really damaging them. They sold one of their best strikers Jelic to Willem II back in January, not to mention defender Dzinic leaving for Charleroi in Belgium. Amusingly, they also lost defender Andelkovic to Palermo, whom they must be sick to the death of seeing pull up outside in their pink limousines! Palermo faced Maribor earlier this season in the UEFA Europa League and although Palermo just about overcame them, they were suitably impressed by the Slovenian giants and promptly bought midfielders Bacinovic and Ilicic, who are now integral parts of the Palermo squad. Now they’ve also signed Andrelkovic and ultimately, Maribor look very vulnerable. In their last five games, Maribor have won once and have scored just three times whilst losing three times along the way. They lost their last game 3-0 at Koper and will be demoralised from that trip to the port. Maribor have lost two out of their last three home games due to relying excessively on Brazilian attacker Marcos Tavares following the departure of Jelic and given that Maribor’s defence is weak too, even if they take the lead they’re still not likely to hold onto it. Primorje are bottom of the table because of their defending predominantly as their attacking can be good in fits and starts. They’ve bagged three goals in their last two games and given that they clawed a point off in-form Olimpija Ljubljana by drawing 2-2, morale should have increased and they should be able to use their momentum today against the biggest side in Slovenia – well, as if they needed any anyway!
Primorje have only failed to score away from home in three games in the Prva Liga this season and given that Maribor look inept in front of goal, I think odds of 2/1 on laying the hosts looks very generous indeed. Therefore, my call is to lay Maribor today, risky though it unquestionably is!
Team news – Maribor miss Zeljko Filipovic
Verdict: Lay Maribor at 2/1.
Accumulator fodder:
Steaua Bucharest, Rangers.
Recommended bets:
Rangers and Gombak United at 2/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
UEFA Champions League:
Real Madrid vs Tottenham Hotspur (4) 1-1
Internazionale vs Schalke 04 (7) under 2.5 goals
Copa Libertadores:
Independiente vs Liga de Quito (7) 2-0
Baltic League:
Siauliai vs Levadia Tallinn (7) 2-0
Skonto Riga vs Ekranas Panevezys (5) 1-2
English Championship:
Reading vs Preston North End (4) both sides to score
English League One:
Bristol Rovers vs Bournemouth (5)
Dagenham & Redbridge vs Peterborough United (6) over 2.5 goals
Leyton Orient vs Plymouth Argyle (7)
Notts County vs Rochdale (5)
Sheffield Wednesday vs Tranmere Rovers (6)
Southampton vs Charlton Athletic (7)
English League Two:
Burton Albion vs Northampton Town (6)
Hereford United vs Wycombe Wanderers (5)
Macclesfield Town vs Bradford City (5)
Accrington Stanley vs Southend United (7)
Italian Serie B:
Crotone vs Ascoli (6)
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Libertad Asuncion vs Guarani Asuncion (7) 2-0, at least one red card in this game
Romanian Liga:
Victoria Branesti vs Sportul Studentesc (6) over 2.5 goals
Gloria Bistrita vs Universitatea Cluj (3) 1-2
Steaua Bucharest vs Unirea Urziceni (8) 2-0
Scottish Premier League:
St.Johnstone vs Rangers (8) 0-2
Singaporean S-League:
Gombak United vs Hougang United (7) 2-0
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Nafta Lendava vs Rudar Velenje (5) 2-2
Gorica vs Triglav (7) 2-0
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Domzale (6) 1-0
Maribor vs Primorje (4) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!