Grimsby Town vs Morecambe
FreeToday’s featured game is the League Two clash between relegation battlers Grimsby Town and surprise package Morecambe. Grimsby Town have gone on a good run of late and have been beaten just once in their last five games although they remain inside the relegation zone. Visitors Morecambe have won their last seven League Two games, making them the most in-form side in the division currently.
Hosts Grimsby Town have struggled a lot in League Two this year with just three wins recorded in twenty-one League Two games. They’re one of the lowest goalscoring sides and also one of the biggest conceding sides in the division, two very unfortunate statistics! Only bottom club Darlington can better Grimsby’s home record of defeats with the hosts tonight having lost six out of ten, winning just once. Grimsby concede just under two goals per game at home and are winless in their last ten games, losing five times and drawing five times. However, the mere fact that Grimsby have scored just once in their last five games spells big problems for them ahead of any encounter, let alone when they’re hosting one of the division’s most in-form and potent forces at the present time!
Visitors Morecambe are in scintillating form and I’m not quite sure how! They’ve won seven consecutive League Two games now and have conceded in any of their last five games whilst notching up fifteen goals along the way, which is an average of three goals per game. You simply can’t argue with form like that, can you? If you’re scoring lots of goals and not conceding then you’re doing something very right indeed so big praise goes to Morecambe from me. The football they’re playing is good and they’re scoring goals for fun so it’s hard to see them struggling against lowly Grimsby, particularly after beating a good number of difficult sides in recent times.
Overall, all the statistics point the away win here and I think the odds on it occurring are incredibly good so let’s go win some money!
Verdict: Morecambe to win at 11/10.
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Hereford United vs Lincoln City – home win at 9/10.
Hereford United have had a poor season thus far and find themselves seventeenth in the League Two table. They’ve lost three out of their last five games and have generally not been scoring enough goals, hence their problems. However, they have been reliable at home with five wins in ten games, losing just twice along the way. Their away form has naturally suffered as a result but the hosts do tend to be reliable at home and occasionally show the potential that they actually possess too!
Visitors Lincoln City are one of the few sides in League Two currently that have a worse record than Hereford United, having lost twelve games out of twenty-one League Two games. Lincoln have lost three of their last four games and generally look devoid of a defence, conceding seven goals in their last four League Two games. With Lincoln’s momentum on the chopping block and a horrendous away record of seven defeats in ten games, it’s hard to see them taking anything out of this game at all.
Verdict: Hereford United to win at 9/10.
Brest vs Nimes – home win at 4/5.
Brest are currently second in Ligue 2 after a highly impressive start to their campaign which has seen them win eight games out of seventeen. Only league leaders Stade Malherbe de Caen have conceded less goals than Brest have which is basically the story of their success. Brest boast a phenomenal home record with six wins in nine games, losing just twice along the way. Only Nantes have scored more goals at home in Ligue 2 this year than Brest have and with the hosts entering this game on the back of two consecutive wins, it’s hard to look beyond a home win for an inspired and efficient Brest tonight.
Visitors Nimes have had a decent season by their standards but appear to have a real issue scoring goals, something which has cost them a higher place in Ligue 2 as they don’t concede many goals either. However, they have already lost five out of nine away games this season and have lost two out of their last three away games, scoring just once along the way. Nimes have lost two of their last three and their momentum has suffered as a result.
Overall, you have to fancy Brest for this game. Nimes aren’t playing well enough to use their momentum to prevent their in-form hosts so we really should see a home win here tonight.
Verdict: Brest to win at 4/5.
Vannes OC vs Bastia – home win at 10/11.
Vannes OC have been beaten just once in their last five games, winning twice and drawing twice, a run which has seen them climb to thirteenth in the Ligue 2 table. They’re not a particularly entertaining or consistent side, particularly at home where they’ve won just three out of eight home games this season, but they remain a decent side nonetheless. Vannes will take heart from the fact that sides are finding it hard to overcome them and will be looking to further their reputation by overcoming bottom club Bastia tonight.
Visitors Bastia have now lost three out of their last four games, taking their tally to eleven defeats in seventeen Ligue 2 games this season. They’ve got the worst away record in Ligue 2 with seven defeats in eight games, drawing the other game. Bastia have only conceded ten goals on that horrific run, which is surprising, but Bastia’s big issue of not scoring goals is severely hindering their ability to get a result on the road.
With the above in mind, Vannes really should have enough to overcome a woeful Bastia side tonight with considerable ease.
Verdict: Vannes OC to win at 10/11.
Eindhoven vs Oss – home win at evens.
Hosts Eindhoven enter this game on the back of two straight wins, wins that will have given them a good deal of confidence and momentum. Confidence tends to be the only thing that Eindhoven lack because they score an awful lot of goals already when you consider how low down the Eerste Divisie table they actually are. However, the fact that they’ve conceded as many goals at bottom club Haarlem have this season tells the whole story with both sides having conceded the most goals in the division. Eindhoven have already won four of their home games this season so they know how to make it count at home and they have enough in their favour to see it happen again tonight.
Needless to say that Eindhoven’s home form isn’t enough on its own for me to take the home win tonight – cue the entrance of Oss! Visitors Oss have already lost six out of ten away games, winning just once, and average conceding two goals per away game. Oss are without a win in their last eight games, losing five times and generally doing a good job of making themselves look uncomfortable and unconvincing. Oss simply don’t look motivated or capable of dragging themselves out of the mire that they find themselves in currently so I feel there’s enough on the home win for Eindhoven tonight to consider backing them here!
Verdict: Eindhoven to win at evens.
Prestatyn Town vs The New Saints – lay The New Saints at evens.
Hosts Prestatyn Town are part of an elite group containing Neath Athletic and tonight’s opponents The New Saints with the group containing sides that are yet to taste defeat on their own turf. Prestatyn have impressively won five out of seven home games this season, drawing twice, and average scoring over two goals per home game. Only a handful of sides have scored more goals than Prestatyn have this season and the hosts have won two out of their last three games, granting them considerable momentum as they hosts one of Wales’ “big three”.
The New Saints have looked their usual imposing selves this season but have struggled more than you’d think they would away from home. They’ve won just twice in five away games this season, drawing twice and losing once along the way. The New Saints don’t concede many goals away from home but they rarely score on the road too so they’re certainly going to be thoroughly tested by a potent Prestatyn Town tonight. The New Saints have drawn two of their last three games so their confidence isn’t exactly thriving here. In fact, you’d have to say that their confidence almost looks like it’s starting to ebb away somewhat and that isn’t the best frame of mind to take to Prestatyn – period!
Although this should be a very close game indeed, I feel there’s value in laying The New Saints because I don’t think they’ll score enough goals to win this game and Prestatyn are extremely reliable at home.
Verdict: Lay The New Saints at evens.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Australian A-League:
Adelaide United vs Wellington Phoenix (6) 2-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Mechelen vs Germinal Beerschot (5) 1-1
Belgian Tweede Klasse:
Lierse vs Oostende (8)
English League Two:
Grimsby Town vs Morecambe (8)
Hereford United vs Lincoln City (7)
French Ligue 2:
AC Ajaccio vs Nantes (8)
Arles vs Chateauroux (6) over 2.5 goals
Brest vs Nimes (8)
Sedan-Ardennes vs Dijon FCO (7)
Tours vs Istres (8)
Vannes OC vs Bastia (7)
Angers vs Metz (6)
Stade Malherbe de Caen vs Laval (8)
Clermont Foot vs Le Havre (5)
Strasbourg vs Guingamp (6)
German Bundesliga 2:
MSV Duisburg vs Alemannia Aachen (7)
Rot-Weiss Ahlen vs Energie Cottbus (7)
Koblenz vs FSV Frankfurt (6)
Greek B Ethniki:
Thrasivoulos vs Diagoras Rodos (6)
Italian Serie B:
Ascoli vs Padova (6) draw no bet
Cesena vs Lecce (6)
Dutch Eredivisie:
Heracles Almelo vs VVV Venlo (7) over 2.5 goals
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Go Ahead Eagles vs Excelsior (6)
AGOVV Appeldoorn vs Fortuna Sittard (7)
De Graafschap vs FC Zwolle (8)
Den Bosch vs Omniworld (7)
Eindhoven vs Oss (7)
Emmen vs MVV Maastricht (6)
Helmond Sport vs Veendam (5)
Haarlem vs Cambuur Leeuwarden (9)
RBC Roosendaal vs Dordrecht ’90 (6)
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Pacos de Ferreira vs Sporting Braga (7) 1-1
Welsh Premier League:
Aberystwyth Town vs Caersws (8) 2-0
Prestatyn Town vs The New Saints (6) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!