Hameelinna vs RoPS Rovaniemi
FreeToday’s featured game on a rather depleted saturday is the Ykkonen clash between Hameenlinna and RoPS Rovaniemi. Both sides have conflicting interests in this game with Hameenlinna keen to beat the drop and RoPS Rovaniemi keen to secure promotion back to the Veikkausliiga so we should see a feisty game today.
You’ll rarely see me go against Hameenlinna at home – I rate their stifling tactics far too much. However, they’re hosting the most potent Ykkonen side for some years now and I think they’re going to find that out the hard way. Still, two wins from two consecutive games leaves Hameenlinna with some good momentum to bring into this game, particularly as one was against doomed MP Mikkeli and the other was a 4-0 drubbing of a resilient OPS Oulu side. Hameenlinna have actually won three out of their last four home games so they are to be taken seriously here. However, my opposition to that would be that they’ve faced poor sides, sides that they’re capable of beating. Hameenlinna’s defence is solid enough against most Ykkonen opponents but take a look at their results against three of the Ykkonen’s better sides so far this season:
Hameenlinna vs PoPa Pori – 2-2
Hameenlinna vs Viikingit Helsinki – 0-2
Hameenlinna vs PK-35 Helsinki – 1-5
Hameenlinna know when they’re outclassed and it’s shown in their games against big sides. Their only redeeming result against a good side was the 2-2 draw with PoPa Pori and that was only due to an uncharacteristic goalscoring spree. Generally speaking, Hameenlinna’s weakest part of their game is scoring goals and it tends to show against good sides too. Hameenlinna’s momentum does concern me a little, as does their desperation to avoid the drop, but to label them as anything but an inferior side here would be misleading.
RoPS Rovaniemi are by far the superior of the two sides and that’s no disrespect to their hosts; they’re simply a fantastic footballing side in this division. The Zambian contingent of their team, assembled by Zeddy Sailetti, provide a strong, physical, and pacey nucleus to the northern Finland outfit and Finnish sides really find it hard to face that type of football, hence RoPS’ continued success. Let’s not forget that RoPS were only relegated from the Veikkausliiga because the Finnish Football Association brought in new rules and regulations regarding the number of foreigners that Veikkausliiga sides can field in a game. RoPS are such a good outfit and when they’re good, they’re really good. Six away wins in twelve away games in the Ykkonen this season may not appear too impressive on paper but I personally consider that a good away record in the Ykkonen, especially as the attack-minded outfit boast one of the best defences in the division away from home (just nine goals conceded in twelve games) and an average of nearly two goals scored per away game. To reinforce my point about RoPS being very good when they’re good, consider that all six away wins in the Ykkonen this season have beaten the -1.5 goal handicap. Outside of their barren run of form lately, the only times that RoPS have stumbled have been at a good Viikingit Helsinki side, in their derby with OPS Oulu, and in a game against a defensive unit KooTeePee Kotka earlier this season – it’s not a terrible record, is it? RoPS are finally getting back to winning ways following the recent announcement from the Finnish Football Association regarding the league system change in the Ykkonen for next season and who can blame them? If they don’t get promoted this year then they may not ever get promoted again with the bizarre setup for the new Ykkonen so fear has proven to be a most useful ally for the Rovaniemi side. RoPS have now actually won three out of their last four games, beating the -1.5 goal handicap in each win and even smashing eight goals past a good PoPa Pori side of late. I’m not exaggerating when I say that this is the best side in the Ykkonen and I think we’ll see them prove it yet again today.
Bluntly, if RoPS Rovaniemi turn up here then they’re going to destroy their hosts; that’s just what RoPS do. Their win at a good PK-35 Helsinki side last match showed their determination and the momentum they’ve gathered of late generally makes them an unstoppable force. RoPS won 5-2 against Hameenlinna in Rovaniemi earlier this year and a similar scoreline today wouldn’t surprise me, although Hameenlinna scoring two in a game might! RoPS have two more games in the division and if they win both of them, they’re back in the Veikkausliiga at a crucial point. Generally, when a good team and a bad team are both highly-motivated, you have to favour the good side for obvious reasons and we really can’t doubt RoPS’ motivation here. They’re superior, in-form, and incredibly potent so the odds of 8/5 on RoPS winning by two goals or more in this game look something of a steal to me today.
Verdict: RoPS Rovaniemi to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 8/5.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Triestina vs Siena – away win at 5/4.
I appreciate that Triestina have started this season well. Let’s face it – no defeats in five games for a crap side is a good record and their momentum will make them hard to beat. Their good start has given them confidence and thus their morale is high, especially as they’ve started a season well that they shouldn’t have done, by all rights. However, Triestina are where they are because they’ve defended well, not because they’ve attacked well. They’re generally a good home side and Italian sides generally don’t travel well in Europe, let alone domestically! However, let’s not forget that Triestina are only still in Serie B after being “relegated” last season because they bought financially-crippled Ancona’s license and they’ve not improved their side since then. I’m impressed enough that Triestina didn’t lost at home to tough nuts Crotone and Padova but I’d also point out that neither of those two opponents score many goals and rarely win on the road so I’m not too surprised.
Triestina get their first real examination today from recently relegated Siena. Along with Atalanta Bergamo, Siena are amongst the favourites to be promoted to Serie A and on their performances so far this season, I have to support such claims. They are playing some good football too under new manager Conte and Siena are starting to look like the finished article that we all know they’re capable of being. They’ve only failed to win two competitive games this season – one of which was at a newly-promoted Pescara side desperate to impress in their first Serie B game in some time and a draw at recently-relegated Livorno, who are a good side. Siena have beaten Atalanta Bergamo, Modena, and Cittadella with some ease and have now won four consecutive games so they bring some great momentum into this game. Siena have only conceded once during that run but have scored seven times along the way so they are to be taken seriously here, particularly with Conte starting to get his feet under the table at Siena. The league table may slightly suggest otherwise but Siena are by far the superior of these two sides and I fancy them to bring Triestina back down to earth with a bang today if they show up as we know they can.
Despite Triestina being a very poor side, this game still isn’t decided. Serie B is no friend to away wins and all sides can struggle sometimes. However, my point here is that if Siena turn up as they have done of late then they should be able to beat a resilient but fairly ineffectual Triestina side. The odds of 5/4 are definitely good enough to take a chance on although I’d leave it if the odds nose-dive below evens.
Verdict: Siena to win at 5/4.
Accumulator fodder:
Ghana, Ivory Coast, Senegal, Netherlands U21, Spain U21, Newells Old Boys, RoPS Rovaniemi, LKS Lodz, Bangor City.
Recommended bets:
Today looks a real minefield for betting – I don’t like any multiples, sorry guys!
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
African Nations Qualifiers:
Ghana vs Sudan (8) 2-0
Comoros vs Mozambique (5) 0-0
Malawi vs Chad (6) 2-1
Kenya vs Uganda (6) 1-1
Rwanda vs Benin (4) 1-2
Burundi vs Ivory Coast (8) 1-3
Tanzania vs Morocco (7) 0-0
Angola vs Guinea-Bissau (6) 1-0
Cameroon vs Democratic Republic of Congo (7) 2-1
Burkina Faso vs Gambia (6) 2-2
Senegal vs Mauritius (8) -1.5 handicap
European Championship Qualifiers:
France vs Romania (5) under 2.5 goals
Israel vs Croatia (6) 1-1
International Friendlies:
New Zealand vs Honduras (6) under 2.5 goals
Australia vs Paraguay (6) under 2.5 goals
United Arab Emirates vs Chile (5) 1-2
Saudi Arabia vs Uzbekistan (7) 2-1
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifiers:
Netherlands vs Ukraine (8) 2-0
Spain vs Croatia (8) over 2.5 goals
Argentinian Primera Division:
Huracan vs All Boys (4) 1-0
Atletico Lanus vs San Lorenzo de Almagro (7) 1-1
Argentinos Juniors vs Godoy Cruz de Mendoza (6) 1-0
Newells Old Boys vs Quilmes (8) 2-0
Brazilian Serie A:
Santos vs Atletico Paranaense (6) over 2.5 goals
Vasco da Gama vs Gremio (6) 1-1
Gremio Prudente vs Sao Paulo (4) 1-2, draw no bet
Colombian Primera A:
Millonarios Bogota vs Real Cartagena (5) 2-1
Once Caldas Manizales vs Independiente Medellin (6) 1-1
Deportes Quindio vs Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota (6) 1-1
English League One:
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Bournemouth (7)
Carlisle United vs Notts County (6)
Southampton vs Tranmere Rovers (6)
Milton Keynes Dons vs Dagenham & Redbridge (4)
Hartlepool United vs Peterborough United (5) over 2.5 goals
Plymouth Argyle vs Charlton Athletic (6)
Brentford vs Oldham Athletic (7) under 2.5 goals
Sheffield Wednesday vs Leyton Orient (6)
Colchester United vs Huddersfield Town (5) over 2.5 goals
Rochdale vs Yeovil Town (6)
Walsall vs Exeter City (6)
English League Two:
Hereford United vs Port Vale (6)
Morecambe vs Shrewsbury Town (5)
Oxford United vs Aldershot Town (4)
Rotherham United vs Stevenage (7)
Crewe Alexandra vs Torquay United (6)
Bury vs Accrington Stanley (6) under 2.5 goals
Chesterfield vs Southend United (7)
Lincoln City vs Macclesfield Town (6)
Barnet vs Bradford City (4) draw no bet
Burton Albion vs Wycombe Wanderers (5)
Gillingham vs Stockport County (5) under 2.5 goals
Cheltenham Town vs Northampton Town (3) over 2.5 goals
Finnish Ykkonen:
TPV Tampere vs Viikingit Helsinki (7) over 2.5 goals
Hameelinna vs RoPS Rovaniemi (9) -1.5 handicap
KooTeePee Kotka vs PS Kemi Kings (6) under 2.5 goals
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Kecskemeti TE vs Szombathelyi Haladas (5) 1-1
MTK Budapest vs Kaposvari Rakoczi (6) 2-1
Paksi SE vs Lombard Papa (5) 1-0
Irish Premier League:
St.Patrick’s Athletic vs Bohemians (4) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score, at least one red card in this game
Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers (7) under 2.5 goals
Shamrock Rovers vs Sporting Fingal (5) 1-1
Galway United vs UCD (4) 2-1
Italian Serie B:
Triestina vs Siena (7)
Pescara vs Sassuolo (5)
Mexican Primera Division:
Jaguares vs Atlante (7) 2-1
Queretaro vs Guadalajara (6) 1-1
Pachuca vs Pumas UNAM (6) 2-1
Tigres UANL vs Estudiantes Tecos (6) 1-0
Atlas vs San Luis (5) 1-1
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Tacuary vs Libertad Asuncion (6) 1-2
Polish Liga 1:
Flota Swinoujscie vs Ruch Radzionkow (7)
Dolcan Zabki vs Kluczbork (6) under 2.5 goals
Katowice vs Nieciecza (7)
Ostrowiec Swietokryzski vs Kolejarz Stroze (5) under 2.5 goals
Pogon Szezecin vs Gorzow Wielkopoloski (5)
Warta Poznan vs Gornik Leczna (4)
Odra Wodzislaw vs Sandecja Nowy Sacz (5)
LKS Lodz vs Gornik Polkowice (8)
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Villarreal II (6)
Cartagena vs Gimnastic de Tarragona (5)
Las Palmas vs Real Betis Balompie (6)
Elche vs Albacete (5)
Celta de Vigo vs Alcorcon (6)
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Miramar Misiones vs Defensor Sporting (5) 1-1
Fenix vs Racing Club Montevideo (5) 1-0
Liverpool Montevideo vs Central Espanol (7) 2-0
River Plate Montevideo vs Penarol (4) 1-2
Welsh Premier League:
Haverfordwest County vs Bangor City (8) 1-2
Newtown vs Port Talbot Town (5) 0-1
Bala Town vs Llanelli (7) 0-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!