HJK Helsinki vs Ekranas Panevezys
FreeToday’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League Qualifier in Finland between reigning Veikkausliiga champions HJK Helsinki and reigning A Lyga champions Ekranas Panevezys. Both sides often feature in European football so I expect a relatively calculated affair here today.
For some reason, the majority of the world was baffled when HJK lost in Lithuania – I’ve no idea why. HJK simply don’t have the players to compete in European football because Finnish football is somewhat lagging behind in that aspect, which may be why the TV money has been increased in Finnish football this year, to try and boost the quality of the teams. You might be sat there now saying that Finland’s Veikkausliiga is better than Lithuania’s A Lyga and my repsonse to that would be “bullshit”. I’m more than confident that Lithuania’s teams would do well in Finland because Finnish football is somewhat one-dimensional when they play in Europe, hence the poor record of their teams. Don’t get me wrong here – HJK are a decent side but for them to be priced at 3/5 to win this game is an absolute joke price – they definitely do not deserve those odds! HJK lost to Vetra Vilnius here last year, whom I’ve decided now that they’re not as good as Ekranas Panevezys having seen the first leg of Ekranas vs HJK, so how HJK are going to turn this around is beyond me. HJK haven’t improved as a side since last year and whereas they do have a very good manager and some good players, the likes of Bah aren’t producing enough goods on the day on a consistent enough basis for me to fear HJK today.
Ekranas are 4/1 to win this game; this screams out “bargain!” to me. The only thing that stops me is the fact that they don’t have to win the game so I might overlook that bet for the time being. Ekranas were comfortable in the first leg and indeed they’re a very “comfortable” side in general. They’ve not had a domestic game at weekend so they’ve had a nice long rest ahead of their trip to Finland, whereas their hosts embarrassingly lost at home to KuPS Kuopio at weekend. Ekranas have advanced in European football over the years and whereas they’re not good enough defensively to do a “BATE Borisov” or “Anorthosis Famagusta” yet, they certainly don’t lack the potency to become one of those sides. For three out of their last four away games in European competition, Ekranas have scored at least two away goals. Compare that to the fact that HJK aren’t strong enough to consistently break the Lithuanians down and you can see why I favour the away win at 4/1.
However, the away win carries a lot of risk with it so I’m happy to lay the overrated hosts at an unbelievably generous price of 11/10. How on earth you can lay an inferior team at those odds is absolutely beyond me!
Verdict: Lay HJK Helsinki at 11/10.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Pyunik Yerevan vs Partizan Belgrade – lay Partizan Belgrade at evens.
This looks a decent price on paper. Pyunik put up a decent show in Serbia and claimed an away goal, albeit via a 3-1 defeat. They’re a stronger side at home, however, and do have bags of European experience to count upon. They drew at home to Dinamo Zagreb last year so they do know how to hold decent sides. To top that off, Partizan will come here to take a draw because Serbian football is rarely effective away from home. Serbian football remains stagnant, sort of like Italian football, so this is the kind of game that could really spring a surprise or two if the hosts apply themselves correctly. Partizan’s only away win in European competition in their last four away games came against Rhyl of Wales whilst having lost in Turkey against Fenerbahce, in Cyprus against APOEL Nicosia, and having drawn in Azerbaijan with Inter Baku. Partizan don’t travel well and Pyunik are tough to beat at home, summarised. Therefore, I laying the visitors at a decent price of evens is worthy of your consideration today.
Verdict: Lay Partizan Belgrade at evens.
Jeunesse d’Esch vs AIK Solna – lay AIK Solna for the first half at 3/4.
I’m not even convinced that AIK will win this game, although they absolutely should. AIK have so many problems on and off the field that it’s unreal. Their droll 1-0 victory in Sweden last week against Jeunesse d’Esch did little to impress and I see no reason why that should change here. I’ve got nothing but praise for the Luxembourgian sides in Europe this season, none of which have lost at home and I’d be a little surprised to see that record change today. Jeunesse will smell blood here and why not? A typically low-scoring defensive side isn’t scoring many goals at all and their defence looks shaky. If AIK do manage to win this game then I expect it to be a second-half counter-attack goal but either way – laying AIK for the first-half at 3/4 looks a real gem to me. To be honest, I fancy laying them for the game too – I just don’t see how they’ll win this one.
Verdict: Lay AIK Solna for the first half at 3/4.
Sparta Prague vs Liepajas Metalurgs – under 2.5 goals at 6/5.
Sparta did the job in Lithuania with great ease, winning 3-0. This game is somewhat redundant and they know. I’m still not convinced by this Sparta side, however. The signings of Zitka and Matejovsky are good ones but I don’t feel they’ve addressed the area that needed the majority of their attention; attack. Atypically, they don’t score enough goals and their horrific display at weekend against newly-promoted Hradlec Kralove emphasised that problem. They’re still a better side than Liepajas, don’t get me wrong, but I don’t see a fairly impotent Sparta going all out to boost their 3-0 aggregate lead and I don’t think the visitors will score here against a very possessive Sparta Prague side. Therefore, going under 2.5 goals at generous odds of 6/5 looks an interesting bet today.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 6/5.
Debreceni VSC vs Levadia Tallinn – home win with -1.75 handicap at 27/20.
This is a very bold bet and I can only encourage caution here. However, Debreceni are the better side and it showed in Estonia for large parts of the game. The scoreline ended 1-1 but the Estonian champions Levadia now travel to Hungary, which is never an easy trip nowadays, either at club level or internationally. Debreceni only won this fixture 1-0 last season but despite their summer changes, they’re still good enough to do so. My other reasoning behind this is that Levadia’s over-reliance on unreliable striker Neemelo will come to bite them in the ass at somepoint and I feel that might well be today. It’s going to be quite the gruelling game for both energetic sides but I think Debreceni can break the handicap today and the odds are good enough to take a chance on – I’m just praying that Levadia don’t score here because I’m not convinced that Debreceni can score three goals unless they’re mid-season domestically, which they’re not!
Verdict: Debreceni VSC to beat the -1.75 goal handicap at 27/20.
Lech Poznan vs Inter Baku – under 2.5 goals at evens.
I wasn’t convinced by Lech’s display in Azerbaijan, to be blunt, but credit to them for winning the game. They displayed their hunger to do well in Europe but their overall ability in Europe is not great. Wichinarek is not the answer to their issues having sold star striker Lewandowski and although he scored in Azerbaijan, to rely upon him would be beyond foolish. He’s experienced and has some ability but not enough for Lech. Fortunately, Lech have now signed Zalaegerszegi TE striker Rudnevs, which is a fantastic signing and he should solve their striking issues. One problem, however; he cannot play until the group stages of this competition – if Lech make it that far. Therefore, Lech still have potency issues for tonight’s game. Baku are a decent enough side to keep the ball and keep the scoreline respectable but I don’t see many goals here at all. I’m not even convinced that Lech will win the game – all I like the look of here is going under 2.5 goals at evens for a game between two low-scoring and relatively well-matched sides.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Hapoel Tel-Aviv – away win at 4/5.
Zeljeznicar’s problems on and off the field were highlighted massively by their crushing 5-0 defeat in Israel and I believe their problems are still very much the same so I fear for them today. I wanted to back Hapoel in the first leg but decided to ride it to see how good they were as I was massively impressed with them in Europe last year and Hapoel typically delivered without me having money on it – damn it! Either way, Hapoel are a really good footballing side – don’t underestimate them against any opponent that they face because they knock the ball around very well and aren’t afraid to score goals either. I think this game will be very much men against boys and although I hate backing away sides in Bosnia, I think there’s value in the away win at 4/5.
Verdict: Hapoel Tel-Aviv to win at 4/5.
Rosenborg BK vs Linfield – under 2.5 goals at 7/5.
Everyone is expecting a massacre here just as they were in the first leg – why? Linfield knew exactly how to defend against Rosenborg’s direct football in Northern Ireland and it paid off. I thought Rosenborg would sneak a goal under Eggen’s new style but they failed to do so. Linfield are going to come to Trondheim with the exact same idea and I think they’ll have some joy too. Rosenborg absolutely hate playing sides like this because they’re not good enough individually to break them down. I think this will be a low-scoring game, through and through, and I certainly wouldn’t be putting any money on the handicap. Underestimating the Irish/Northern Irish sides in this competition is very foolhardy, in my humble opinion. I can see a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline here and the bet should be good value with the proviso that Rosenborg don’t score early in the game or Linfield will be forced to abandon their defensive formation.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 7/5.
FH Hafnfarfjordur vs BATE Borisov – away win at evens.
Unbelievable pricing! BATE won 5-1 in Belarus and don’t have to do anything here but that’s the only thing that bothers me here so this has to be worth a shot. BATE tend to defend on the road because they’re good at it but they’re so much better than their Icelandic hosts that I cannot possibly overlook the good odds on the away win here. FH have disappointed this season, both domestically and in Europe, primarily because they’re not defending well enough and they’re not scoring enough goals. They’re facing a much better side than they are and know that they need to attack so I can see FH getting ripped apart on the counter-attack and in general play here. For me, this game has away win written all over it and the price is worth a punt too.
Verdict: BATE Borisov to win at evens.
Vitoria vs Goias – home win at 3/4.
I don’t know why but Vitoria are just a great home side. Not just this year, but for a few years now they’re an absolute nightmare to play on their own turf and it’s shown again this year with three wins and one draw from four home games. They’ve averaged scoring over two goals per home game this season and are unbeaten in three consecutive games, drawing at giants Gremio and beating giants Sao Paulo during that run so confidence and momentum are strong. Vitoria are unbeaten in their last four home games against Goias, conceding in just one of those games and beating the -2.75 handicap in two of those games. Vitoria haven’t lost to inferior Goias in three consecutive games now and with Goias yet to register a goal this month and morale dropping like a stone as a result, it’s hard to see that changing today. The odds should and probably will go lower than 3/4 so take them whilst you can as I wouldn’t touch them below 3/4.
Verdict: Vitoria to win at 3/4.
Atletico Goianiense vs Corinthians – away win at evens.
Corinthians don’t score enough on the road despite their superior team which is why they’ve drawn three times and won once in four away games this season. However, now is the perfect time for them to start winning away from home against one of the weakest sides in Serie A that has already lost three out of five home games. The hosts are a very low-scoring side so although they don’t concede too many, when they do concede it tends to be fatal. They’ve lost two out of their last three games so morale is low whereas Corinthians claimed their usual home win last match and thus bring some momentum into the game. I fancy the away win here due to the big gap in class but be wary – Brazilian away wins are hard to call and Corinthians haven’t won enough on the road this year for my liking. The bookies will milk the odds here so don’t take it at lower than evens – Corinthians aren’t worth it beyond that.
Verdict: Corinthians to win at evens.
UEFA European U19 Qualifiers Previews:
As I’ve mentioned before in recent weeks, I’m short on time at the moment and for whatever reason, I cannot locate any odds on these games at the moment so here are my thoughts on them:
Spain really should overcome Portugal because they’re a lot better than their Iberian neighbours. Portugal scored two against a decadent Italian side last match that had ten men – I’m really not won over by that. Spain are a much better side and I’d be surprised if they didn’t win this one with some ease. I’d take the outright win as low as 2/3 but no lower. I’d consider a -1.75 handicap but it would be risky.
Croatia vs Italy – I just don’t like this game, stay away!
France vs Austria – the bookies will hopefully underestimate Austria here. I expect France to win because their youth squads are always very, very good, not to mention that they’re the hosts. However, the markets that interest me here (as I expect the 1X2 price to betoo short) are over 2.5 goals (would take at lowest of 5/6), both sides to score (lowest of evens), or France to beat the -1.75 goal handicap (lowest of 11/10). Austria will give them a good game here though – don’t underestimate them!
Netherlands vs England – both sides usually have very good youth sides but Netherlands were destroyed by France and England were quite comfortable against Austria. Dare I say that I’m disappointed in the Dutch youth this time around? We’ll soon see if that’s accurate or not but there should value on the England win here – they’ve got one of the best sides in the tournament and score a lot of goals as a result. I expect a tight game but the outright win should be good value, hopefully no less than 10/11!
Accumulator fodder:
Spain U19, France U19, Rosenborg BK.
Recommended bets:
Just a BATE Borisov and Debreceni VSC double today at 2/1 interests me.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
UEFA European Champions League Qualifiers:
Olimpi Rustavi vs Aktobe Lento (4) 0-1
Pyunik Yerevan vs Partizan Belgrade (5) 0-0
Jeunesse d’Esch vs AIK Solna (4) 1-1
HJK Helsinki vs Ekranas Panevezys (5) 1-2
MSK Zilina vs Birkirkara (7) 2-0
Sparta Prague vs Liepajas Metalurgs (7) under 2.5 goals
Debreceni VSC vs Levadia Tallinn (7) 2-0
Lech Poznan vs Inter Baku (6) under 2.5 goals
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Hapoel Tel-Aviv (6) 1-2
Rosenborg BK vs Linfield (8) under 2.5 goals
FH Hafnfarfjordur vs BATE Borisov (7) 1-2
UEFA European U19 Championships:
Spain vs Portugal (8) 2-0
Croatia vs Italy (5) 1-1
France vs Austria (8) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Netherlands vs England (7) 1-2
Brazilian Serie A:
Atletico Mineiro vs Internacional (5) 1-1
Vitoria vs Goias (7) 2-0
Sao Paulo vs Gremio Prudente (6) 1-0
Flamengo vs Avai (7) over 2.5 goals
Atletico Paranaense vs Santos (5) 2-2
Gremio vs Vasco da Gama (5) 2-1
Atletico Goianiense vs Corinthians (6) 0-1
Russian Premier League:
Spartak Moscow vs Sibir Novosibirsk (6) 1-0
Singaporean S-League:
Albirex Niigata vs Tampines Rovers (7) 0-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!