HJK Helsinki vs FC Lahti
FreeToday’s featured game is the Veikkausliiga game between HJK Helsinki and FC Lahti. Reigning champions HJK Helsinki were humbled last match by title rivals FC Honka Espoo and will be keen to make amends today and they’ve got the perfect game to do so as they host relegation favourites FC Lahti.
HJK Helsinki will be reeling from that defeat last match as it’s been some years since they lost in Espoo. However, HJK are always strong title contenders in the Veikkausliiga not only because of their high level of quality but because of their strong home form. Already this season HJK have won once and drawn once (although the draw was undeserved; they annihlated Haka Valkeakoski) and have conceded just once during that run. HJK haven’t had the greatest of records at home to FC Lahti in recent years due to FC Lahti being a big club and usually being able to give them a good game. However, these are now dark days at FC Lahti with many problems and it’s shown with HJK winning both Veikkausliiga matches against them from their last meeting at each ground. HJK aren’t the greatest footballing side in the country but they’re certainly one of the most efficient so I’ve got some confidence in them doing the business today.
A lot of my confidence stems from the inability of their opponents FC Lahti, however. “inability” is perhaps a harsh term to use given that they still have veteran Jari Litmanen in their ranks because when he turns it on, FC Lahti play well. However, that’s on the rare occasion that he’s fit and also when play doesn’t glide past him so it’s a bit of a long shot, hence FC Lahti’s dilemma. Interestingly enough, FC Lahti are yet to lose an away game this season, winning once and drawing once. It’s a bizarre record when you consider that they’ve already lost all three of their home games but that at least tells us that FC Lahti’s away form doesn’t reflect their overall ability as home form tends to be the decisive factor. FC Lahti have lost three consecutive games ahead of this trip to Helsinki; two Veikkausliiga games and one Suomen Cup game, two of which were at home to MyPa Anjalankoski. FC Lahti have worryingly only scored once during those three games whilst they’ve conceded five times so they’re not really bringing enough momentum into this game to trouble HJK Helsinki, in my humble opinion.
Although statistics aren’t backing my call to an overwhelming degree, I still have great faith in the selection, perhaps moreso than I should! HJK are so much better than Lahti nowadays though that it’s unreal. HJK have been a bit unlucky in recent times and Lahti have been lucky on the road this season – I think it’s time that both sets of luck get “ironed out”, shall we say. Either way, the odds on the handicap are too good to overlook today for a side I expect to finish top or second whilst hosting a side that is a strong candidate for relegation.
Verdict: HJK Helsinki to win with -1.75 handicap at 7/5.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Spain U17 vs Portugal U17 – Spain U17 to win at 4/5.
This should be quite the interesting game today. I’d actually quite like it if someone could commentate on it as I’ll be unavailable at that point but I’ll leave that up to your good selves although I should be around for the second half with a bit of luck.
Spain surprisingly haven’t already qualified for the latter stages despite having already notched up six goals in back-to-back wins. They play glorious football, just like their senior team, and therefore they’re a threat against anyone. They don’t need to win this game to qualify; a draw would suffice. However, Spanish national sides simply don’t play for draws – it’s just not in their nature. This side is determined to show what it can do as has been evident for all to see in their opening two games so I expect them to go for the win here. You also have to consider that this game is of significance to the Spanish in the sense that it’s an Iberian derby so they will have further motivation for the game. An additional factor may also be do the Spanish want to win the group in style with three wins from three and send a message to potential future opponents? Of course they do, and they’ve got a hell of a lot of talent in-depth in this side so I’m confident in them whoever they put out there.
Portugal’s U17 side are good but they’re not on the same field as Spain. Spain have quality right throughout the list of U21/U19/U17 sides but Portugal start to falter at this stage for the same reason that their senior side currently struggles; goalscoring. The thing is with Portugal is that they don’t breed natural goalscorers anymore, which is a shame. Instead they focus on midfield and as a result they have one of the best midfields in the world, generally speaking, but that means little when they’re taking on a side that can match that midfield and better them elsewhere, like Spain can. You might point out that Switzerland were beaten 3-0 by Portugal in this competition already and I’d hold up my hands and say “fair enough” because they were. However, my point is more intended towards Portugal’s impotence versus sides who can defend. Portugal shouldn’t have lost against ten-men France last match because they’re more than capable of matching them but they lost because they failed to register a goal. Bear in mind that Portugal need to win this game to quality for the latter stages as a win for France in the other game – which will almost certainly happen – would see them crash out. Therefore, Portugal have to push men forwards which should expose their weak defence and will almost certainly expose their impotent strikers against a fairly competent Spanish defence. Whichever way you look at it, it doesn’t look good for Portugal.
With the above in mind, I have to favour the Spanish to win this one at 4/5. They’re simply the better side and I expect the odds to drop to about 8/13 before this game kicks off for that reason.Verdict: Spain U17 to win at 4/5.
Naestved vs Roskilde – home win at evens.
I’m wondering how long Naestved’s run will go on for but I’m happy to continue backing them whilst they’ve got momentum on their side, which they do with two consecutive wins. Naestved are one of the few sides in the Danish 1st Division with nothing to play for currently as they’re hopelessly mid-table with no realistic chance of promotion or relegation. However, this fact appears to have unleashed the beast within them as they’ve started playing football without fear again now. Naestved haven’t been great at home this season as their record indicates that they know when they’re facing a better side than they are, losing six times in twelve home games. However, they’ve won five of their remaining home games so they are capable. Naestved’s problems at home come from a lack of goalscoring as their defence is usually solid so the question is today will Naestved’s attack show up? For my money – yes, they will. They’ve demonstrated in the last couple of games that they’ve played that they know how to find the net and I expect them to continue that trait today.
It helps my bet greatly that Roskilde aren’t as good as Naestved, naturally. Their home record shows how poor they can be with seven defeats in thirteen home games, which I find more relative than their away form as you can see the core of a side when they play at home. Naestved interestingly enough have a presentable away record with just five defeats in twelve away games this season and they tend to give as good as they get. However, they’ve lost their last two away games consecutively without scoring a goal and they’ve also lost two consecutive games without scoring a goal ahead of this game so they do have their issues. I’d be more hesitant about this bet if Roskilde were scoring goals because unlike their hosts, they do need as many points as they can get to stave off the threat of relegation. However, I can’t give Roskilde a chance for this game because they’re not scoring goals and their hosts are so whilst the odds on the home win remain at evens or above, I’ll be taking the home win today.
Verdict: Naestved to win at evens.
Breidablik Kopavogur vs FH Hafnarfjordur – away win at 5/6.
I know, I know – FH Hafnarfjordur have cost a lot of you of late, and myself included. They’re not playing their best football, to be sure. However, I cannot possibly overlook them at odds of 5/6 for this game because they’re good odds for the absolute best side in Iceland. They’ve already beaten Breidablik once in the Icelandic Super Cup pre-season, winning 1-0, and a similar scoreline tonight wouldn’t surprise me. Breidablik haven’t settled into the Urvalsdeild properly yet this season with their only win thus far being at Valur Reykjavik last match. The win has given them momentum for tonight’s game, admittedly, but there are still a lot of teething issues for the wealthy hosts so I’ve no real faith in them to deliver yet. FH have won their last four meetings with Breidablik at either ground and won here last season so there’s no question that they can do it. My only fear is that the abject defending from FH of late and sporadic goalscoring may affect the selection today. Atypically, I’d stay away from the game but odds of 5/6 are too generous for this outcome and therefore I cannot ignore the away win in this one. If the odds go to 4/6 or below then I’d leave it but for the time being they’re worth a punt.
Verdict: FH Hafnarfjodur to win at 5/6.
Argentina vs Canada – under 2.5 goals at 6/4.
This is a very bold call – I’ve actually surprised myself with this one!
However, you have to have faith in Maradona’s inability to manage. Any manager that doesn’t take Argentina’s best holding midfielder and most experienced player (Esteban Cambiasso and Javier Zanetti respectively) to the World Cup is a fucking idiot. Mind you, we didn’t need that proving, really – Maradona’s ineptitude throughout the whole World Cup Qualifiers was clear to see. The Argentinian FA are really clutching at straws to hope that this useless prick guides them to victory because he doesn’t know what he’s doing. He’s got an appalling attitude and no capacity to approach a game with a different tactical approach so he’s ruining a really good Argentina side. I’ve got tremendous belief in that fact and the proof is there for you all to see.
Now whereas Canada are far from a good side, they are schooled in the English manner i.e. learn to defend before you can attack. Canada are generally a poor side overall because they don’t score goals but they’re no mugs in defence. A good number of Canadians play football in Europe so they do have some ability in their squad. In their last eight games in all competitions, only one side has beaten Canada by three goals or more and that was Republic of Macedonia. However, the Macedonians are good tactically and are a nightmare to face in Skopje. Argentina struggle to break down resolute defences and Canada certainly have that so the bet does interest me today.
Do approach this with caution because any side with Messi or Aguero in it can beat any side 4-0 upwards. However, I just feel that Canada will be rigid at the back and Argentina will be badly managed tactically so I think it’s worth going under 2.5 goals at generous odds for this game.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 6/4.
Stabaek vs Start Kristiansand – home win at 4/5.
Stabaek are stealthily creeping back up the form charts with three consecutive wins in all competitions, scoring seven times and conceding just twice. Stabaek beat Brann Bergen at home to start that run off before travelling to Drammen to beat Stromsgodset, which was highly impressive in my eyes. Stabaek also claimed an efficient mid-week win against Baerum in the NM Cupen so they’re on a bit of a roll at the moment. Stabaek are generally strong at home but they haven’t been this season because they’d seemingly forgotten their old Real Madrid “we’ll score more than you” philosophy.
Visitors Start have stumbled of late after their heroic start to the season. Their youngsters are finding the pressure of high level football hard to deal with as three defeats in their last four Eliteserien games indicates all too well. Start won their last Eliteserien game 3-0 at home but any game against Kongsvinger doesn’t really count currently for obvious reasons! Start’s big problem has been in defence. Only Odd Grenland Skien have scored more away goals than Start have this season and yet Start have only won once in five away games, losing three times along the way, which tells you that they have problems defending! Indeed, only we’re-unable-to-play-away-from-home Stromsgodset and the bottom three clubs in the Eliteserien have conceded more than Start have on the road with an average of over two goals per away game being leaked by today’s visitors. It’s a record that just isn’t good enough and it hinders the potential of this young side rather a lot, unfortunately, something which I expect to be all too evident today.
Stabaek are due to batter someone and Start are conceding a lot of goals – I think we could have a recipe for a very one-sided result here today. Start are capable of surprises but Stabaek are undisputedly the better of the two sides and are ominously slipping into form as the season winds onwards.
Stabaek have never been reliable in defence so don’t be surprised if they concede here but I expect them to do damage themselves with their goalscoring boots back on and the ever-potent threat of uniting arguably the best striking partnership in the Eliteserien – Nannskogg and Gunnarsson – in the way that they used to play together. Either way, Stabaek look good to win this one and it’s good value in my eyes whilst it remains above 4/6.
Incidentally, logic and statistics say that this game should be fairly close with the possibility of a good few goals, which I agree with. However, my ever-reliable instinct says that Stabaek will unleash their backlash today and flatten Start 4-0 but make of that what you will. Mind you, it wouldn’t be that big a surprise – Stabaek have beaten Start twice at home in their last four attempts, drawing the other two games. However, when Stabaek have beaten Start, they’ve done it by at least three goals in each game so it’s perhaps worth an extremely impudent bet on Stabaek to win with a -1.75 handicap at 11/5.
Verdict: Stabaek to win at 4/5.
Malmo vs Brommapojkarna – home win with -1.75 handicap at 13/10.
This one speaks for itself, really. Malmo are just too good for Brommapojkarna. The visitors are quite good defensively so my only real qualm with this selection is how many will Malmo score? Bromma do average conceding just over a goal per away game but rarely get flattened. However, if any side is capable of flattening currently then it’s Malmo as they’ve already won five out of six home games this season, drawing the other game but scoring an average of over two goals per home game along the way. Malmo have beaten the -1.75 handicap in three out of their last four home games in the Allsvenskan so they’re on track to do the same again tonight. However, Brommapojkarna bring some momentum into this game following back-to-back wins in all competitions so they’ll be typically brimming with the “you can’t beat us easily” attitude that has been second-nature to them over the past few years. Either way, the odds on the handicap are good enough to take a risk; I just hope Malmo score in the first half because if they do then they should beat the handicap. If it’s left entirely to the second-half then I have my doubts.
Verdict: Malmo to beat the -1.75 handicap at 13/10.
Accumulator fodder:
France U17, AC Horsens, HB Torshavn, NSI Runavik, HJK Helsinki, Portugal, Australia, Haugesund, Ranheim, Lov-Ham Bergen, Sarpsborg 08, FK Khimki, Kuban Krasnodor, KamAZ Nab Chelny.
Recommended bets:
HJK Helsinki, Ranheim, Malmo, and Stabaek at 6/1.
FK Khimki, Kuban Krasnodor, and KamAZ Nab Chelny at 3/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA European U17 Championships:
Spain U17 vs Portugal U17 (7) over 2.5 goals
Switzerland U17 vs France U17 (8) 0-2
Czech Republic U17 vs Greece U17 (7) 1-1
Turkey U17 vs England U17 (5) 1-1
Danish 1st Division:
Frem vs Vestjaelland (5)
Fredericia vs Hvidovre (7)
Naestved vs Roskilde (7)
AC Horsens vs Vejle (8)
Fyn vs Kolding (4)
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
Vikingur Gotu vs IF Fuglafjordur (7) over 2.5 goals
HB Torshavn vs B36 (8) -1.75 handicap
NSI Runavik vs B71 (9) -1.75 handicap
AB Argir vs Suduroy (6) 2-2
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
HJK Helsinki vs FC Lahti (8) -1.75 handicap
Inter Turku vs Tampere United (6) 1-0
MyPa Anjalankoski vs TPS Turku (7) 1-1
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
Haukar Hafnarfjordur vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar (5) 0-1
Fylkir Reykjavik vs Fram Reykjavik (6) 2-2
Breidablik Kopavogur vs FH Hafnarfjordur (6) 0-1
International Friendlies:
Australia vs New Zealand (8) 2-0
Japan vs South Korea (7) 2-1
Portugal vs Cape Verde Islands (10) under 3.5 goals
South Africa vs Bulgaria (5) 0-1
England vs Mexico (7) 2-1
Argentina vs Canada (7) under 2.5 goals
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Stabaek vs Start Kristiansand (7) over 2.5 goals
Tromso vs Valerenga Oslo (7) 1-0
Honefoss vs Brann Bergen (5) 0-0
Kongsvinger vs Molde FK (4) 1-2
Haugesund vs Sandefjord (7) 2-0
Aalesunds vs Stromsgodset (7) over 2.5 goals
Viking Stavanger vs Rosenborg BK (8) 1-1
Norwegian Divisjon 1:
Ranheim vs Mjondalen (8) over 2.5 goals
Lov-Ham Bergen vs Strommen (8)
Follo vs Nybergsund (7)
Bryne vs Lyn Oslo (7) over 2.5 goals
Alta vs Tromsdalen (6) under 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Saprsborg 08 vs Sandnes Ulf (8) over 2.5 goals
Sogndal vs Bodo Glimt (6)
Russian Division 1:
Energiya Khabarovsk vs Dinamo Bryansk (6)
Luch-Energiya Vladivostok vs Shinnik Yaroslavl’ (6)
FK Khimki vs Dinamo St.Petersburg (8)
Kuban Krasnodor vs Baltika Kaliningrad (8) under 2.5 goals
KamAZ Nab Chelny vs Irtysh Omsk (8)
Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod vs Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast (6)
Salyut Belgorod vs FK Krasnodor (7)
Avangard Kursk vs Zhemchuzhina Sochi (6) under 2.5 goals
Volgar Gazprom Astrakhan vs FK Nizhnyi Novgorod (6) over 2.5 goals
Rotor Volgograd vs Mordovia Saransk (8)
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Malmo vs Brommapojkarna (9) -1.75 handicap
Swiss Play-Out:
Lugano vs Bellinzona (6) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!