Inter Turku vs FC Lahti
FreeMoving onto today’s featured game in the Veikkausliiga between Inter Turku and FC Lahti – both of these sides had made impressive starts to their respective campaigns before rapidly tumbling from those dizzying heights. Now both sides have claimed just one victory from their past five games. Neither side’s league placing really reflects their ability. Reigning champions Inter Turku aren’t the best side in the country, in my opinion, but a top four place should be a comfortable finish for them atypically. This season, it currently looks unlikely. I’d expect FC Lahti to be challenging the likes of Inter Turku for their spot in the league but again, they’re faltering and falling behind. However, both sides to have a chance of redemption via European football, which is partially why I fancy a home win here. FC Lahti have a lengthy trip to Albania next week for the second leg of their UEFA Europa League qualifier against Dinamo Tirana. They enter the game in a very commanding position, leading 4-1 from the first leg, but they know they face a side very good at home and will need to finish the job properly. For that reason, FC Lahti will no doubt field a weakened squad against Inter Turku, a side that has taken four wins from six home games this campaign. Suffice to say that they know how to win at home, particularly against under-strength sides. Atypically, if both of these sides were fielding full squads then I’d back a draw, primarily because I don’t think there’s enough between them to be a winner. However, I think the home side will shade it, particularly against a FC Lahti side that are still yet to win away from home this campaign. With the above information in mind, 4/5 looks a real bargain for a home win.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Neman Grodno vs MTZ-RIPO Minsk – home win at 6/5. The reason I like the look of this game is because MTZ-RIPO Minsk will have their attention firmly fixed on next week’s return leg of the UEFA Europa League Qualifiers as they entertain Sutjeska Niksic of Montenegro. Having drawn the first leg 1-1, MTZ-RIPO Minsk are in pole position but need to finish the job off professionally. For that reason, they’ll be fielding a weakened squad for their trip to Neman Grodno. The hosts happen to have one of the best home records in the division with four home wins from seven games, as well as being one of the lowest conceders of goals at home. I think a full-strength MTZ-RIPO Minsk squad would struggle here; I think an under-strength squad will lose here. At 6/5, this looks a real bargain.
Nautico vs Internacional – home win at 15/8. This is one of my risky bets of today so, as ever, approach with caution! Nautico are on an abysmal run of four straight defeats and find themselves dangerously close to the foot of the table. Their home form is vague, with one win, one draw and one defeat from their opening three home games. The visitors are in tremendous form, finding themselves second in the table. Their away form is good, having only lost once in four games, winning two and drawing the other. However, Internacional have a lengthy trip north to Ecuador to take on Liga de Quito next week in the second leg of the Recopa Sudamericana Final in a game they have to win, having lost the first leg 1-0, thus they’ll be resting players for this game. To add further conviction to my point, Nautico, despite their poor league placing, have rarely concede any goals at home this season. As a matter of fact, only three sides in the division have conceded less goals than they have at home. To top that off, Internacional have only managed to score three goals from four games on the road this season. In my mind, we’re in for a really tight, low-scoring game but a game that I think the hosts will want more and could possibly steal, too. At 15/8, this could be a very good bet.
Inter Turku vs FC Lahti – home win at 4/5 – see introduction for full details.
Jaro Pietarsaari vs HJK Helsinki – home win with draw no bet at 4/5. This is probably the most interesting game of the day in my opinion. Impressive Jaro Pietarsaari host joint league leaders HJK Helsinki with the knowledge that they’ve not lost a home game in this campaign. Indeed, they’ve only conceded an outstanding two goals from their five home games, scoring eleven in the process. HJK Helsinki aren’t the biggest scorers on the road, particularly if you ignore their crazy exchange with VPS Vaasa last game. In fact, it then becomes three goals in four games. Against a side like Jaro Pietarsaari, HJK Helsinki will truly have their work cut out. The hosts are a much better side than HJK Helsinki’s last opponents VPS Vaasa, who really let the joint league leaders off the hook by conceding a flurry of second half goals – Jaro Pietarsaari aren’t going to capitulate like that. Ahead of a long stint of away games in a row and coupled with the fact that this is HJK Helsinki’s third game in seven days, you have to feel that a home win with draw no bet at 4/5 is a very good deal.
TP 47 Tornio vs FC Hameenlinna – away win at 4/5. There’s not an awful lot to explain about this game. TP 47 Tornio are the rubbing rags of the division and can barely score a goal, let alone win a game. In fact, they’re not scored a goal at home in their entire campaign thus far. Whereas I hardly rate Hameenlinna as one of the best sides in the Ykkonen, they’re certainly better than TP 47 Tornio and should prove that today, particularly as they’re one of the biggest goalscorers on the road in the division currently. They’ve also won two away games from four so armed with that knowledge, I feel pretty comfortable that an away win at 4/5 is a good bet.
KPV Kokkola vs PS Kemi Kings – home win at evens. This game was much harder to call than the previous game. Both of these sides are flying high so far in the Ykkonen this year. In fact, neither side has tasted defeat in their last three games, both sides having won two and drawn one. KPV Kokkola actually have a poor home record with just one win from five home games so far. So why do I think it will be a home win? Well, as ever, statistics don’t quite reveal everything, although they do lend a large helping hand more often than not. When examined, the games that KPV Kokkola have not won at home have included games against second placed AC Oulu, high-flying PoPa Pori, and last year’s runners-up, Viikingit Helsinki. Looking at those games objectively, it’s easy to see why KPV Kokkola’s home record isn’t what it should be. However, PS Kemi Kings should make it easy for KPV Kokkola to boost their home record as they boast three defeats from four games on the road so far, a record that would put them in the bottom four in the league if their home form wasn’t so good. I’m a little concerned with KPV Kokkola’s inability to score consistently at home but I can put that down to the fact that they have played good sides at home. What finally tipped the balance was that KPV Kokkola beat PS Kemi Kings twice in the Ykkonen last season, so I feel relatively assured that a home win is on the cards here at evens.
Sligo Rovers vs Drogheda United – away win at 21/10. This is possibly my most interesting pick of the day, but bear with me! Relegation-battling Drogheda United travel to out-of-sorts Sligo Rovers in an attempt to climb away from the drop zone. Impressively, the visitors haven’t lost in the last four games now, having won two and drawn two. The hosts have now lost three in a row and also suffered a slightly embarassing home defeat mid-week in the UEFA Europa League first leg qualifier against Albanian outfit Vllaznia Shkoder. The return leg is next week and Sligo Rovers still have a chance of progressing, remote though it is, so will be fielding a weakened squad here. However, those statistics weren’t enough to lure me in but the next one not only had me pissing my sides but reeled me in entirely. Get a load of this – Sligo Rovers haven’t beaten Drogheda United home or away in the last fourteen meetings! Admittedly, the majority of these head-to-heads were draws but today, the signs point to an away win and at 21/10, a cheeky punt has to look favourable!
Lyn Oslo vs Staebek – away win at evens. Financially ruined Lyn Oslo entertain reigning champions Staebek with the knowledge that they’ve now not won a Tippeligaen game in thirteen attempts. Indeed, they’ve not won a home game in this entire campaign. Naturally, they find themselves rooted to the bottom of the table and in desperate need of points. Unfortunately for them, they’re entertaining rejuvenated Staebek. After a slow start, the champions are gathering some strong momentum with four wins from five games, their only slip-up being to league leaders Rosenborg BK. Knowing how far they already are behind Rosenborg BK means they have to win this game, as well as pretty much every other game until the end of the season. I don’t envision a difficult game for the champions here today, however – Lyn Oslo appear to be facing relegation with a whimper rather than a roar. Evens on this game looks a winner.
Aalesunds vs Valerenga Oslo – away win at 6/5. Generally, I don’t like going against Aalesunds at home because it tends to be the only place they get points. However, last year’s relegation play-off survivors seem hell-bent on avoiding the relegation play-off this season – they seem to prefer the option of direct relegation, given their current form. They’ve now lost four games in a row and are going to struggle to stay in the Tippeligaen yet again. Valerenga Oslo have had a slow and patchy start to the season but are beginning to play well with some consistency, having won three games in their last five. They’re also one of the strongest sides in the division away from home so the signs look a little ominous for lowly Aalesunds. 6/5 could be a good bet here.
Viking Stavanger vs Lillestrom – home win at 10/11. Viking Stavanger aren’t a side I back very often because they’re generally rather unpredictable. However, make the most of it because they’re entertaining Lillestrom, a side that has only won one game out of eight away from home this season. There’s no doubt in my mind that Viking Stavanger has one of the strongest squads in the division. My only doubt is the cohesion with which it plays on occasion, hence their poor home form of just two wins from eight home games. However, they’re beginning to find their feet with two wins and two draws from their last four games and a home win looks somewhat imminent against struggling Lillestrom. 10/11 is a good price here.
Bodo Glimt vs Molde – away win at 10/11. I’ve been very impressed with Molde’s form so far in the Tippeligaen. Not only are they second in the table with four wins from their last five games, but they’re also playing extremely well away from home with an outstanding five wins from seven games on the road. In fact, only unbeaten Rosenborg BK can currently better their away record. Much akin to the Aalesunds vs Valerenga Oslo game, I don’t tend to back sides travelling to Bodo Glimt because it’s where they get the vast majority of their points and it’s a long bloody way north too. However, Bodo Glimt can’t seem to do anything right at the minute with no league wins in their past six attempts. I’d normally approach this game with some caution but I’m feeling a comfortable away win is in the offering and 10/11 is a bargain for it too.
Nybergsund vs Sarpsborg – home win at 9/10. Interestingly, these two sides don’t seem to like beating each other, looking at their head-to-head encounters. They do like their 2-2 draws though! Both of these sides have achieved mid-table places for the past year or two in the Adeccoligaen so they know what the game is all about and know each other quite well. However, this year Nybergsund appear to have taken that extra step towards achieving promotion to the Tippeligaen with their impressive start to the campaign. They’ve actually got the best away record in the division at the present time, although they could do with reciprocating it on their own turf. Their home form isn’t bad per se, but three wins from six home games could be better for Nybergsund. However, that aside, they’re unbeaten in three games, having won their last two and enter this game with some good momentum because of it. Sarpsborg are a bit hit-and-miss currently but currently have away form that even Skeid Oslo can better. If that doesn’t mean anything to you, then suffice to say that Sarpsborg are the worst side in the division away from home this season. For the above reasons, I quite like the look of a home win here at 9/10.
Orebro vs AIK Solna – away win with no draw no bet at 6/5. AIK Solna are a funny side. They don’t tend to deliver when they have to but tend to turn up when they shouldn’t. They’re actually the third worst goalscorers in the division but also one of the best at keeping other sides out. However, they’re still the best side on the road in the league with four wins from six games and also boast the record of having conceded the least amount of goals on the road in the Allsvenskan (along with Elfsborg Boras). Their defence will be tested by a resolute Orebro, who very much make the Behrn Arena a fortress with just one defeat at home from six games having won four of them. However, they’re struggled to win of late, having drawn their last three games in a row. AIK Solna are just that bit more adept at winning games efficiently and in a boring fashion so I do fancy them to steal three points here. However, a draw is also possible here so I would take at draw no bet odds of 6/5, which is still good value in my eyes.
Djurgardens vs Helsingborgs – home win at 2/1. I’m feeling rather quietly assured about a home win here, perhaps more than I should be, knowing the talents of Helsingborgs! However, let me explain why I think otherwise. Djurgardens are relegation battlers at the best of times so they’re more than adept to laying their life on the line to win a game ’cause they know it could well be the three points that keeps them away from the Superettan – for another year, at least! They’ve had a miserly campaign thus far, but have began to awaken in their last couple of games, gaining a draw and a win over Orgryte and Hacken respectively. Like most clubs in dogfights, they generally tend to accumulate their points at home rather than on the road. Today they’re at home to the ever odd Helsingborgs. Why odd? Well, they either turn up or they don’t for away games. Generally, most big sides have a “Plan B” they can use when things aren’t going well and can gain a draw instead of a defeat on the road. Not Helsingborgs. They’re very much an “all or nothing” club with three wins and three defeats on the road this season. Why a home win then? Well, they’re got a long trip east to Armenia next week for a game in the second leg of the UEFA Europa League Qualifier against Mika Yerevan so they will be resting players here. For those reasons, I feel Djurgardens could just sneak a home win here and at at 2/1, it’s got to be worth a shot!
Gefle vs Hacken – home win at 9/10. This is one of those games where I’m not so much convinced by how good the hosts are at home but how bad the visitors are away from home. Gefle are decent at home – three wins, two draws and only one defeat from six home games – but Hacken are abysmal away from home with five defeats and one win from their six away games. Their biggest problem is scoring goals, something they’ve only managed to do twice in these six games. Gefle are relatively compact in defence at home and I don’t think Hacken will be able to break through. I view Gefle as a poor man’s version of AIK Solna – boring, but efficient. 9/10 for a home win here is good odds.
Ljungskile vs GIF Sundsvall – away win at 13/10. Both of these sides were relegated from the Allsvenskan last season, which should immediately tell you that this could be a closer game than it looks. However, I am going to stick with an away win, and I shall tell you why! GIF Sundsvall are beginning to play some good football of late and get some good results in the process too. They’ve only lost once in their past five games, winning their last two games in a row. They’re also decent on the road with three wins from seven games and seem determined to make their omittance from the Allsvenskan a short one as they lie in fifth place in the league currently. Ljungskile unfortunately don’t seem to be able to match the ambitions of their visitors today with their own ambitions at the present time being to purely stay in the Superettan as they’re currently second from bottom in the league with no win in four games, having lost three of those encounters. They’re not using their own ground as a fortress, hence their poor league placing. I can’t see them breaking free of the relegation shackles that currently hold them anytime soon, especially not against a high-flying GIF Sundsvall side. For those reasons, an away win looks intriguing at 13/10.
Falkenbergs vs Mjallby Solvesborg – away win at 7/5. I think it’s fair to say that this is my favourite bet of the day! It’s not because it’s a dead cert or even because it’s the best odds, but because it’s between two very good sides in exceptional form. Both sides have now won four games in a row and occupy first and second place in the league respectively. However, looking at all the statistics, you can’t help but notice that Mjallby Solvesborg are the real daddies in the Superettan this season. They average conceding a goal once every two games and already nearly average three goals scored per game. They’ve got an away record that betters any side’s home or away record in the division, which is largely due to the fact that they’ve only conceded one goal away from home all season. Today they face Falkenbergs, a side that prefers to play on the road, as they boast the second best away record in the division. Their home form can be somewhat wayward with three wins and three defeats, a record bettered by most sides around them in the table. What really tipped the scales for an away win here (aside from the above information) is that a side that don’t even average a goal per game at home are entertaining a side that score an average of two goals per game away from home and have only conceded one goal on the road all season. That is a rather unfortunate combination for Falkenbergs, whom I feel might just succumb to the irresistable football of Mjallby Solvesborg, who tenaciously seek a promotion place to the Allsvenskan. In fact, playing this quality of football, you have to fancy them to do it too. 7/5 looks real good odds for an away win providing Mjallby Solvesborg’s defence shows up!
As ever, any questions/explanations required, feel free to email me at thefootytipster@gmail.com. For the complete picks listing, see below!
World Cup Qualifiers – African section:
Egypt vs Rwanda (8) 2-0
Argentinian Primera Division:
Gimnasia De La Plata vs Gimnasia y Esgrima de Jujuy (7) 2-0
San Martin de Tucuman vs Lanus (7) 1-2
Velez Sarsfeld vs Huracan (7) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Dinamo Minsk vs FC Gomel (7) 2-1
Neman Grodno vs MTZ-RIPO Minsk (7) 2-0
Brazilian Serie A:
Atletico Mineiro vs Botafogo (8) over 2.5 goals
Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense (7) 2-0
Goias vs Cruzeiro (7) 2-0
Coritiba vs Sao Paulo (7) under 2.5 goals
Nautico vs Internacional (5) 1-0
Avai vs Palmeiras (7) 1-2
Chinese Super League:
Guangzhou Yiyao vs Tianjin Teda (6) 0-0
Dalian Shide vs Qingdao Jonoon (8) 2-1
Hangzhou Lvcheng vs Beijing Guoan (7) 1-1
Chongqing Lifan vs Changchun Yatai (8) 1-1
Changsha Ginde vs Shanghai Shenhua (8) 1-1
Jiangsu Shuntian vs Shaanxi Zhongxin (8) 2-0
Chengdu Blades vs Shandong Luneng (7) under 2.5 goals
Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen (8) 2-0
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Deportivo Quito vs Barcelona Guayaquil (8) to win to nil
Emelec Guayaquil vs El Nacional Quito (8) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Liga de Quito vs LDU-Portoviejo (7) 2-1
Deportivo Espoli Cayambe vs Tecnico Universitario Ambato (8) over 2.5 goals
Macara Ambato vs Deportivo Cuenca (7) 2-1
Manta vs Olmedo Riobamba (7) 1-2
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Inter Turku vs FC Lahti (8) 2-1
MyPa Anjalankoski vs Haka Valkeakoski (8) 1-1
Jaro Pietarsaari vs HJK Helsinki (7) home win at draw no bet
IFK Mariehamn vs VPS Vaasa (8) 2-0
Finnish Ykkonen:
Kiisto Vaasa vs AC Oulu (8)
KooTeePee Kotka vs PK 35 Helsinki (7) under 2.5 goals
TP 47 Tornio vs FC Hameenlinna (7)
KPV Kokkola vs PS Kemi Kings (8)
Irish Premier League:
Sligo Rovers vs Drogheda United (5) 1-2
Japanese J-League:
Nagoya Grampus vs Gamba Osaka (7) 2-3
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Jubilo Iwata (8) 2-0
Kawasaki Frontale vs Kashima Antlers (7) 2-2
Lithuanian A Lyga:
FK Siauliai vs Banga Gargzdai (7) 2-1
Tauras Taurage vs Kruoja Pakruojis (8) 2-0
Suduva Marijampole vs LKKA Teledema Kaunas (9) 3-0
Moldovan Divizia Nationala:
CSCA-Rapid Chisinau vs Dinamo Bender (6)
Sfintul Gheorghe vs Nistru Otaci (6) under 2.5 goals
Olimpia vs Viitorul (7)
Iskra-Stal vs Tiraspol (8)
Academia-UTM Chisinau vs Dacia Chisinau (8)
Sheriff Tiraspol vs Zimbru Chisinau (7) both sides to score
Norwegian Tippeligaen:
Lyn Oslo vs Staebek (8) 1-2
Aalesunds vs Valerenga Oslo (8) 1-3
Start Kristiansand vs Stromsgodset (7) 2-1
Viking Stavanger vs Lillestrom (8) 2-0
Bodo Glimt vs Molde (8) 1-3
Rosenborg BK vs Tromso (9) -1.75 handicap
Norwegian Adeccoligaen:
Nybergsund vs Sarpsborg (8)
Tromsdalen vs Mjondalen (8)
Sogndal vs Skeid Oslo (10)
Kongsvinger vs Honefoss (7)
Stavanger vs Hamarkamaratene (7)
Moss vs Haugesund (6)
Singaporean S-League:
Geylang United vs Balestier Khalsa (7) 2-1
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Orebro vs AIK Solna (6) draw no bet
Djurgardens vs Helsingborgs (6) 2-1
Gefle vs Hacken (8) 2-0
Swedish Superettan:
Vasby United vs Angelholms (7)
Ljungskile vs GIF Sundsvall (7)
Landskrona BOIS vs Assyriska Sodertalje (6)
Syrianska Sodertalje vs Qviding Goteborg (6)
Trollhattan vs Sirius Uppsala (8)
Atvidabergs vs Vasalunds (8)
Falkenbergs vs Mjallby Solvesborg (6)
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Club Nacional de Montevideo vs Defensor Sporting (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Enjoy your free betting tips!