Inter Turku vs Haka Valkeakoski
FreeI just wanted to take time out to thank everyone that has donated to our cause lately. It doesn’t matter what you donated – it all helps us keep this project going as we’re really not very well off financially for various reasons currently! So yeah – a very big thank you from Toby and myself and we won’t forget it!
Anyway, today’s featured game is the Veikkausliiga game between Inter Turku and Haka Valkeakoski. Neither side has performed as they’d been expected to pre-season due to varying circumstances and as such, this game shouldn’t be as close as the odds suggest.
It took Inter Turku a good portion of the Veikkausliiga season to adapt to life without injured star striker Timo Furuholm and to be honest, they’re still not 100% comfortable without their natural target man. Osinachi hasn’t really stepped up to the plate, which has left the goalscoring burden with Dutch striker Snot, who has scored goals for Inter but they’ve still looked short in front of goal. What has concerned me most of all about Inter Turku this season, however, has been their casual attitude towards defending with some disastrous defending resulting in ridiculous results. Defending has been the forté of Inter Turku for some seasons – they were famed for their narrow but comfortable home wins thanks to their steely backline. However, they’ve gone gung-ho (at least by their standards!) this sesason and although they’ve looked better in attack for it, they have suffered at the back. However, a bizarre Veikkausliiga season for most sides has gifted Inter Turku with a faint possibility of a UEFA Europa League place but that involves them winning all of their remaining games, something that they’re capable of doing and something that their momentum will assist them with. They’ve been beaten just once in their past five games, winning three times along the way. They’ve notched up eight goals in their past three games as they’ve swept aside both JJK Jyvaskyla and VPS Vaasa whilst claiming an impressive 2-2 draw at the Finnair Stadium against giants HJK Helsinki. Inter Turku’s short burst of momentum still gives them a stab at a UEFA Europa League place, which is ironically gifted to them as bitter rivals TPS Turku have already qualified for that competition via the Suomen Cup and yet their finishing place in the Veikkausliiga currently means that they’ll achieve a UEFA Europa League place via that method too. Therefore, the Finnish Football Association would award TPS Turku’s league finish to the next side, which is currently FC Honka Espoo but with their abject form of late, a disastrous finale to the season is not out of the realms of possibility. Inter Turku have the players, the momentum, the motivation, and the knowledge that they’ve won this fixture for three out of the last four times that it has been played so I do fancy them today.
It aids my selection massively that Haka Valkeakoski still haven’t fully recovered from their financial meltdown. They were so full of promise at the start of the season when they had money to burn and players to dazzle the Veikkausliiga. However, times got tough and they ended up selling the likes of Ik-Kyung Nam, Jarno Mattila, and Antti Hynynen as they tried to work their way out of their financial problems. Haka are still fairly competent at home but they’ve reverted to their usual selves away from home by failing to score enough goals to get a result. They’ve not won an away game for six consecutive attempts and they’ve lost four of those games, which takes their total to six defeats in eleven Veikkausliiga away games this season. Only AC Oulu and Tampere United have conceded more on the road than Haka with Haka averaging conceding nearly two goals per away game and no Veikkausliiga side has scored less on the road than Haka – even rock-bottom FC Lahti! To make matters worse for Haka, they have to attack a superior Inter Turku side tonight as they attempt to fend off the dreaded drop into the Ykkonen, a relegation that is made far worse with the Ykkonen’s re-structuring for next season as Haka won’t be coming back up immediately if they do go down so they have to attack here, which suits Inter Turku perfectly well.
Inter are the better of these two sides, basically, although neither side is what they were. Nonetheless, Inter’s convincing form of late and Haka’s woeful away form convinces me to side with the home win here, particularly with talented Job Dragtsma in charge of the hosts, who is arguably the best manager in Finland currently. The odds of 4/5 aren’t as good as I’d hoped but to be honest, I was merely being impudent with my expectations! Inter are good enough to make 4/5 on the home win good value today, particularly with Haka struggling on the road, so my call is the home win.
Team news – Inter Turku are missing Aho and Makitalo (against his former club!) for this game whereas Haka have doubts over the fitness of striker Tomi Lehtinen.
Verdict: Inter Turku to win at 4/5.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Lokomotiv Sofia vs CSKA Sofia – home win at 31/20.
Although this isn’t the main Sofia derby, it’s still going to be a heated affair between two old Bulgarian clubs so expect plenty of passion and cards here.
Out of the three main Sofia clubs, Lokomotiv are arguably the smallest with Levski and CSKA considered to be amongst the biggest sides in Bulgaria. That, of course, is no disrespect to Lokomotiv Sofia, who are a force themselves but the point I’m trying to get across is that CSKA Sofia are the bigger side here.
However, CSKA Sofia’s problems earlier in their A PFG campaign were well-documented and many of those problems exist even now. The fact that they’ve won just three games out of eight in the A PFG this season speaks volumes for the issues of CSKA as they continue to struggle to locate any consistency or potency for that matter. They were outplayed at Besiktas JK in the UEFA Europa League, they were outplayed at local Slavia Sofia, managed a win at home to a poor-travelling Montana side, and lost at home to Porto in the middle of last week in the UEFA Europa League and deservedly so. CSKA’s displays are lacklustre and ultimately ineffectual with only Irish striker Sheridan scoring goals for the sleeping giants. Striker Rui Miguel was sold after a disagreement between the player and the non-playing staff of CSKA Sofia and that basically sums up CSKA so far this season – too many individuals and not enough team spirit. If CSKA actually form a strong cohesion then they’ll be a force, particularly with talented Argentinian playmaker Trecarichi arriving from Sevilla CF, who should really excel in this division. However, they’re not a force currently and this is the kind of game that they could and should be burned in. It doesn’t help that they’re facing a Lokomotiv Sofia side that has been utterly dominant at home so far this season with three wins from three home games, scoring ten times and keeping three clean sheets in the process. I’d not be particularly blown away by this record if they’d played poor sides but two of those wins were against Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Beroe respectively, two sides that don’t concede many goals and certainly don’t lose many games so Lokomotiv Sofia have played really well in those games, basically. They’ve now won four out of their last five games in the A PFG and despite pre-season thoughts from myself that they’d miss Martin Kamburov too much, they’ve adapted incredibly well and look a strong unit. Derek Asamoah and Tsvetan Genkov look untouchable in attack and even emerging youngster Preslav Yordanov is getting his name on the scoresheet so this united Lokomotiv Sofia side are not only bringing to this game a solid front but also a heavy level of potency – two things that opponents CSKA Sofia currently lack.
With momentum and goals massively in the favour of underdogs Lokomotiv Sofia and their more illustrious neighbours struggling on every front, I have to give a thought to the home win in this particular Sofia derby today.
Now for the good news though – Lokomotiv Sofia haven’t beaten CSKA Sofia in their last sixteen attempts at either ground! However, records are there to be broken and given that this is the weakest that I’ve seen CSKA Sofia for some time so I have to give Lokomotiv Sofia a chance to beat their local rivals today at decent odds of 31/20.
Verdict: Lokomotiv Sofia to win at 31/20.
Accumulator fodder:
Real Valladolid
Recommended bets:
Real Valladolid and Inter Turku at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
Australian A-League:
Sydney FC vs Adelaide United (7) 1-1
Bulgarian A PFG:
Sliven vs Levski Sofia (5) under 2.5 goals
Lokomotiv Sofia vs CSKA Sofia (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Cypriot Division 1:
Ethnikos Achnas vs Doxa (6) 1-0
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Prague (6) 1-1
Danish Superligaen:
Aalborg BK vs OB Odense (3) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Inter Turku vs Haka Valkeakoski (7) 2-1
FC Honka Espoo vs FC Lahti (3) 2-2
French Ligue 2:
Tours vs Metz (6) under 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga 2:
Hertha BSC Berlin vs Alemannia Aachen (7) over 2.5 goals
Italian Serie B:
Varese vs Novara (6)
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Viking Stavanger vs Stromsgodset (7) over 2.5 goals
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Beira-Mar vs Sporting Clube de Lisboa (6) 0-1
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Porto (7) 1-2
Romanian Liga:
Victoria Branesti vs Targu Mures (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Singaporean S-League:
Armed Forces vs Albirex Niigata (5) over 2.5 goals
Young Lions vs Sengkang Punggol (6) 2-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Real Valladolid vs Albacete (8)
Swedish Superettan:
Jonkopings Sodra vs Ljungskile (6)
Brage vs Landskrona BoIS (5)
Trollhattan vs Angelholm (5)
GIF Sundsvall vs Osters (6)
Swiss Challenge League:
FC Schaffhausen vs SC Kriens (6)
Enjoy your free betting tips!