Istanbul BB vs Bursaspor
FreeToday’s featured game is the Super Lig encounter between Istanbul BB and Bursaspor. Istanbul BB have built up a reputation in recent years for being a battling side and one that doesn’t lose often at home. However, Bursaspor currently lead the league table following a massively impressive campaign and will look to continue that run tonight.
Istanbul BB have only lost twice at home in twelve home games whilst winning six times. They barely average scoring more than a goal per home game but their goals conceded record is similar too so it’s safe to say that sides struggle when they come here. Istanbul BB are a very battling and tenacious side but can be undone by quality, which is what I’m baking on tonight. Istanbul BB have been unconvincing lately with two defeats in their last three games whilst winning just once, which was a fortuitous win at home to lowly Diyarbakispor thanks to a late goal from Cameroonian striker Herve Tum. Istanbul BB didn’t manage to score in either of their two defeats so they are struggling to find the net a bit more than normal currently. Istanbul BB will work Bursaspor hard tonight for this result as that’s their mentality but bearing in mind that their bitter rivals are the title rivals of Bursaspor, I don’t think that Istanbul BB will be crying too much if they lose this one tonight!
Bursaspor have followed up an immense season by having an even better one this season! I had to do a double-take of the Super Lig table before as I didn’t realise that Bursaspor now led the table by five points! Bursaspor haven’t lost in the Super Lig since the start of December 2009 and have since won epic games at both Besiktas JK and Fenerbahce, showing the potency, confidence, and tenacity of tonight’s visitors. Bursaspor are naturally more reliable at home than they are away but frankly they’re dynamite playing anywhere currently. They’ve won six consecutive Super Lig games – including three away games – whilst conceding just three times and scoring sixteen times, which is an average of nearly three goals per game! Bursaspor have only conceded once during their last five games and just look to be going from strength to strength. Their confidence and momentum are through the roof so my only criticism of them would be that they may lack the experience to see out this exceptional run but their young squad simply do not give up in games so their lack of experience is accounted for to some level at least. Bursaspor have won eight out of thirteen away games in the Super Lig this season, which is more than any other Super Lig side, so it’s plain to see how well this young side are doing.
I’d think twice about backing 95% of sides travelling to face Istanbul BB but I genuinely believe this fantastic Bursaspor side can win here. They’ve got the defensive ability, the attacking potency, confidence, momentum, pace etc. to win this game comfortably and with odds of evens on this outcome, you have to fancy the away win, which is ironically how it ended last season too.
Verdict: Bursaspor to win at evens.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Estudiantes De La Plata vs Godoy Cruz de Mendoza – home win at 9/10.
I’ve been waiting for this type of game for a little while now as little Godoy Cruz de Mendoza take on a heavyweight of the Primera Division away from home so we can see how real their title credentials actually are.
Estudiantes De La Plata have had a fairly solid Clausura campaign thus far and currently occupy third place in the Primera Division. They’re particularly dominant at home where they’ve won four out of five home games already this season, scoring nine times and conceding just once along the way. The only way to beat Estudiantes here is to steal a goal and stop Estudiantes scoring i.e. they need more luck than is possible for the vast majority of the time. Estudiantes bring some momentum into this game following a five-match unbeaten run in all competitions, winning their last three games consecutively. Estudiantes beat a resilient Newells Old Boys 2-0 in their last home game to demonstrate how easily they can dispose of their difficult opponents and I don’t expect tonight’s game to be any different for them.
Visitors Godoy Cruz de Mendoza are drastically over-achieving this season and need to be brought back down to earth, something I expect to occur tonight. I have massive respect for what they’ve achieved in the Clausura, particularly with their 2-0 win at home to Apertura champions Banfield, but the fact is that they’re not good enough to keep this up. They’ve won twice already on the road this season but this record I largely attribute to their defensive strength as they score few goals on the road. Godoy Cruz de Mendoza lost their last away game against Newells Old Boys and having conceded five goals in their last five games, they look likely to concede again tonight which should be fatal as Estudiantes are rock solid in defence at home.
There’s an awfully big gap in ability between these two sides and it really should show tonight. Godoy Cruz de Mendoza are a good side but they’re not in the same league as Estudiantes De La Plata. I thoroughly expect the hosts to outclass them tonight with their dominant home form and attacking potency. The home win at 9/10 is much longer than it should be so I’m happy to back the home win tonight!
Verdict: Estudiantes De La Plata to win at 9/10.
Dijon FCO vs Arles – home win at 11/10.
This is a very risky call to make because Dijon FCO don’t score many goals. They’re unbeaten in four games, winning their last two games consecutively but have only scored three goals during those four games. You have to admire their defensive stability on one hand but be fearful when backing them as falling behind in a game would surely be fatal for Dijon FCO. Dijon FCO are a good home side although they’re not shown that anywhere near enough this season but have a good opportunity to prove it again tonight, particularly with strong momentum in their favour.
Visitors Arles are flying high this season but on the road they’re absolutely terrible. They’ve lost eight out of fourteen away games in Ligue 2 and average conceding nearly two goals per away game whilst not even being able to score a goal per game. Arles may look the finished article at home but on the road they look very much like the newly-promoted side that they are. Arles were crushed 3-0 in their last away game against bottom club Bastia and haven’t scored in either of their last two away games. Arles have also lost six out of their last seven away games so consistently fail to deliver on the road, something I expect to occur yet again tonight.
Quality-wise, there is very little between these two sides. Dijon have more experience in this division and do play well at home, however, so I’m expecting that to show tonight. Arles consistently fail to deliver on the road and with their frequent conceding and rare goalscoring, I think taking a narrow home win at 11/10 is potentially good value tonight.
Verdict: Dijon FCO to win at 11/10.
Maritimo Funchal vs Sporting Clube de Lisboa – away win at 17/20.
There aren’t many sides when I will back the away side in Madeira but this is one of those times.
Maritimo are traditionally a good home side but have struggled a lot in this campaign and find themselves a lot closer to the Liga Sagres relegation zone than they’d like. They’ve lost five out of twelve home games already this season, which is too many for a tough home side like themselves, and they owe this record to not scoring enough goals. Maritimo aren’t great defensively but they’re fairly competent at home in that regard but their goal-shy displays are frequently costing them points. They’ve won just one out of their last five home games, drawing twice and losing twice. They were embarassed 5-0 here by Sporting’s bitter rivals SL Benfica, which is an uncharacteristic result for the resilient Madeira-based outfit but is somewhat symptomatic of the way things are going for them this season. The gulf in class between themselves and the better sides is beginning to increase and with only goal-shy displays to retailiate with, it’s hard to see Maritimo breaching that gap anytime soon.
Sporting Clube de Lisboa have had a poor campaign but are still in the mix thanks to their reliable defence. They’ve won their last three Liga Sagres games consecutively whilst scoring ten times and conceding just once, a run which included a 3-0 demolition of reigning champions Porto. All Sporting have been lacking this season is goals but now they’re here, Sporting look good value once more. They’ve played two spirited games with Spanish side Atletico Madrid lately and drawn both of them, which is a respectable set of results, particularly as Sporting probably should have gone through based on their overall displays. Sporting are the better side out of these two and a side with a lot of ability that works hard too is very hard to counter, particularly for a demoralised and lesser side like Maritimo so Sporting are looking good for the win tonight.
Sporting have won their last four visits here and with Maritimo short on goals and momentum due to no wins in five consecutive games and Sporting on-fire and scoring goals for fun, these rather short odds of 17/20 look great value today for the superior of these two sides to win the game.
Verdict: Sporting Clube de Lisboa to win at 17/20.
Accumulator fodder:
SCR Altach, Wacker Innsbruck, Fehervar, Bohemians, Excelsior, De Graafschap, Cambuur Leeuwarden.
Recommended bets:
Fehervar, Excelsior, De Graafschap, and Sporting Clube de Lisboa at 6/1.
Steaua Bucharest, Cambuur Leeuwarden, Bursaspor, and SCR Altach at 7/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Estudiantes De La Plata vs Godoy Cruz de Mendoza (8) 2-0
Rosario Central vs Huracan (6) 0-0
Austrian Liga 1:
SCR Altach vs Lustenau (8)
Wacker Innsbruck vs Gratkorn (8)
Admira Wacker vs Salzburg II (6) over 2.5 goals
Austria Vienna II vs Hartberg (6) over 2.5 goals
Austria Lustenau vs Dornbirn (3)
French Ligue 2:
Nimes vs AC Ajaccio (6) under 2.5 goals
Dijon FCO vs Arles (6) under 1.5 goals
Vannes OC vs Stade Malherbe de Caen (6)
Istres vs Clermont Foot (7)
Bastia vs Sedan-Ardennes (5)
Tours vs Strasbourg (7)
Brest vs Angers SCO (4)
Metz vs Chateauroux (7)
Laval vs Nantes (5)
German Bundesliga:
VFL Bochum vs Eintracht Frankfurt (7) 1-1
German Bundesliga 2:
Paderborn vs Rot-Weiss Oberhausen (6)
MSV Duisburg vs Koblenz (7)
FSV Frankfurt vs Union Berlin (6)
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Fehervar vs Szombathelyi Haladas (8) over 2.5 goals
Irish Premier League:
Galway United vs Shamrock Rovers (5) 1-1
Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers (8) 2-1
Dundalk vs St.Patrick’s Athletic (6) 1-1
Sporting Fingal vs Drogheda United (6) over 2.5 goals
UCD vs Bray Wanderers (5) 0-0
Mexican Primera Division:
Estudiantes Tecos vs Cruz Azul (5) 1-1
Dutch Eredivisie:
NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag (7) 2-1
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Excelsior vs Helmond Sport (8) over 2.5 goals
Dordrecht ’90 vs Zwolle (6)
Eindhoven vs Den Bosch (6) over 3.5 goals
Oss vs De Graafschap (9) over 2.5 goals
Fortuna Sittard vs Omniworld (5)
Cambuur Leeuwarden vs Volendam (8) over 2.5 goals
Telstar vs RBC Roosendaal (6)
Polish Ekstraklasa:
GKS Belchatow vs Zaglebie Lubin (7) 2-1
Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warsaw (6) 1-1
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Maritimo Funchal vs Sporting Clube de Lisboa (7) 1-2
Romanian Liga:
Gaz Metan Medias vs Otelul Galati (7) 1-1
Pandurii Targu Jiu vs Steaua Bucharest (8) 0-1
Russian Premier League:
Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Amkar Perm (4) 0-1
Singaporean S-League:
Home United vs Sengkang Punggol (5) over 2.5 goals
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Real Union Club de Irun vs Cadiz (6)
Swiss Challenge League:
Lausanne Sports vs Wohlen (5)
Turkish Super Lig:
Istanbul BB vs Bursaspor (8) 1-2
Welsh Premier League:
Welshpool Town vs Bala Town (5) 1-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!