Juan Aurich vs Bolivar
FreeToday’s featured game is the Copa Libertadores encounter between Peru’s Juan Aurich and Bolivia’s Bolivar La Paz. Hosts Juan Aurich have more Copa Libertadores experience than Bolivar La Paz so far this season having had to qualify for this competition against Estudiantes Tecos of Mexico and have generally been impressive. Visitors Bolivar La Paz are not only lacking in match fitness but their only game lately was their crushing defeat at home by Peru’s Alianza Lima so they’re not at their best currently!
Juan Aurich enter this game on the back of a 2-1 win against fellow Copa Libertadores compatriots Universitario Lima, one of the best sides in Peru currently, so they’ll have taken considerable momentum from this game. They were crushed 5-1 by reigning champions Estudiantes De La Plata in their opening Copa Libertadores Group Stage game in Argentina but the outcome was somewhat inevitable; it was the scoreline that was a little surprising. Juan Aurich have already beaten Mexicans Estudiantes Tecos in back-to-back wins to qualify for the group stages and they overcame the -1.75 goal handicap to do so in Peru so they are a capable side. Juan Aurich won the Peruvian Descentralizado first round last season because of their consistent home form – twelve wins in fifteen games – whilst averaging scoring over two goals per game. Although Juan Aurich are new to the Copa Libertadores, they know that their home games are what count and they’ll look to make it count tonight. They can do it domestically and they know they’re a lot better than Bolivar so I can’t see them slipping up tonight.
However, whereas I’d normally call the standard home win, Bolivar La Paz have convinced me that they’ll lose this game comofortably. Why? Well, Bolivian sides are simply atrocious on the road as I’ve mentioned previously. If my maths is correct then Bolivian sides have lost eleven out of their last sixteen away games in the Copa Libertadores by two goals or more because they’re simply nowhere near as good as the other sides and usually rely on their home advantage. Bolivar La Paz were crushed 3-1 at home by Juan Aurich’s title rivals Alianza Lima in their first Copa Libertadores game so things are already looking distinctly ominous for the Bolivians. Their domestic campaign hasn’t started yet so they’ve had no games since that defeat and will be up for yet another tough game tonight against opponents that are a lot better than they are in a difficult venue.
Juan Aurich are enough of an established Peruvian side to be consistent at home both domestically and continentally and they won’t get many better chances to prove it than to lay waste to their Bolivian visitors tonight. I fancy Juan Aurich to score at least twice tonight and I can’t see any away goals for a dismal travelling side – a dismal travelling nation in fact – so the home win with a -1.75 goal handicap seems a natural earner for me.
Verdict: Juan Aurich to beat the -1.75 handicap at 31/20.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Internazionale vs Chelsea – away win at 7/4.
Hosts Internazionale are on a barren run of form of late with no wins in three Serie A games, drawing all three encounters and scoring just once along the way. Inter may be keeping clean sheets but if you don’t score goals then you don’t win games. Jose Mourinho will no doubt want his players to get one over on Chelsea for obvious reasons but I remember this argument arising when Inter faced Manchester United last season and Inter were battered from pillar to post. It was frankly amazing that Inter managed to claim a 0-0 draw from that game because they didn’t deserve it whatsoever. They pulled a similar trick at home to Barcelona in the group stages and again somehow managed a 0-0. However, a 0-0 won’t be enough tonight; Mourinho knows his side won’t fare well on English soil as they never do. Therefore, Inter have to go for this game and their defence does look weak against strong forwards so I think Drogba will have the time of his life tonight. Inter should be caught on the counter with their need to push forwards and I just don’t believe that they have the ability in general to beat Chelsea.
Much like Inter, Chelsea have under-performed lately. They somehow won at a battling Wolverhampton Wanderers lately despite barely deserving a draw from that game so it’s only a matter of time before they come unstuck. However, grinding out wins is part and parcel of winning any competition so fair play to Chelsea for that. Chelsea have yet to convince me that they’re a particularly good European side despite their good results so far this season but the fact remains that English football is more advanced than Italian football and it tends to show whenever the two countries meet in the Champions League. I can’t see Inter being able to contain a direct and efficient Chelsea side tonight because the visitors have more variety and more ability so irrespective of Mourinho’s wishes I think an away win is likely.
This is far from a banker because both sides are very good at the end of the day. However, I simply believe that Chelsea play a better style of football than Inter which is more effective, they have better strikers, they take their chances better, and they have more variety to their football. Chelsea are very capable of winning this game and I think they’re going to succeed where Barcelona and Manchester United have failed in the past year or so. All I would warn of is Chelsea’s inability to defend set pieces but they should still outscore Inter tonight if even if they do concede.
Verdict: Chelsea to win at 7/4.
Roeselare vs Racing Genk – away win at 4/5.
Hosts Roeselare are easily one of the worst sides in the Eerste Klasse. They’ve already lost eight out of eleven home games in the Eerste Klasse and average conceding approximately 2.5 goals per home game. Despite an impressive draw at Zulte-Waregem in their last match, Roeselare have now lost two out of their last three games and have only scored once along the way whilst conceding five times. They’ve lost their last four home games in the Eerste Klasse consecutively and their goalscoring problems are now clearly impacting the club’s overall form. Personally, I think Roeselare will do well to stay out of the drop zone come the end of the season because they’re just not good enough to stay in the division.
Visitors Racing Genk are twice the side that the Eerste Klasse currently portrays them to be and happily their recent form is now indicating that. They’re unbeaten in their last five Eerste Klasse games and have won their last four consecutively. Genk have beaten strugglers Charleroi and Lokeren, that’s true, but they’ve also beaten Standard de Liege and Club Brugge without even conceding a goal so this isn’t some temporary form burst – they’re a good side and they’re beginning to show how good they can be. Genk have scored nine goals in their last four games, which is an average of over two goals per game, and have only conceded twice along the way. Although Genk have only won four out of ten away games this season they look in prime condition to win again, particularly as they’re travelling to a demoralised and goal-shy Roeselare.
Although Genk don’t have a great record against Roeselare, tonight is a great opportunity for them to amend that record. They’re on fire in both attack and defence, two areas that Roeselare have real problems in, so you have to feel that the away win here tonight bears significant value.
Verdict: Racing Genk to win at 4/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Cruzeiro, Juan Aurich, Flamengo, Corinthians, Sanfrecce Hiroshima, Henan Jianye, Aston Villa, Tottenham Hotspur, Rhyl.
Recommended bets:
A five-team accumulator of home wins in the Copa Libertadores with Cruzeiro, Juan Aurich, Flamengo, Corinthians, and Monterrey at 5/1.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima, Henan Jianye, APOEL Nicosia, and Racing Genk at 6/1.
Tottenham Hotspur, Aston Villa, and Chelsea at 5/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA Champions League:
Internazionale vs Chelsea (6) 0-1
CSKA Moscow vs Sevilla CF (5) 1-1
Copa Libertadores:
Juan Aurich vs Bolivar (8) -1.75 handicap
Cruzeiro vs Colo Colo (8) under 2.5 goals
Corinthians vs Racing Club Montevideo (9) over 2.5 goals
Flamengo vs Universidad Catolica (8) under 2.5 goals
Monterrey vs Nacional Asuncion (7) 2-1
Asian Champions League:
Adelaide United vs Pohang Steelers (7) 1-1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shandong Luneng (8) over 2.5 goals
Suwon Bluewings vs Gamba Osaka (6) 1-2
Henan Jianye vs Armed Forces (8) over 2.5 goals
Al Sadd vs Al Hilal (6) 1-1
Al Ain vs Pakhtakor Tashkent (5) 1-0
Mes Kerman vs Al Ahli (6) 2-1
Al Shabab vs Sepahan (7) 1-0
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi (7) 2-1
Roeselare vs Racing Genk (8) 0-1
Cypriot Division 1:
Ethnikos Achnas vs APOEL Nicosia (8) 1-3
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Deportivo Cuenca vs Universidad Catolica (8) 2-0
English FA Cup:
West Bromwich Albion vs Reading (7) over 2.5 goals
Stoke City vs Manchester City (6) 0-0
Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace (8) -1.75 handicap
Tottenham Hotspur vs Bolton Wanderers (8) over 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga 2:
Hansa Rostock vs Union Berlin (6)
International Friendlies:
Mexico vs Bolivia (8) at least one red card in this game, over 2.5 goals
USA vs El Salvador (8) over 2.5 goals
Italian Serie A:
Fiorentina vs AC Milan (6) 1-1
Udinese vs Cagliari (5) 1-1
Swiss Challenge League:
Wohlen vs Thun (6)
Uruguayan Primera Division:
River Plate Montevideo vs Danubio (6) 2-2
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Deportivo Lara vs Caracas (5) 0-1
Welsh Premier League:
Airbus vs The New Saints (7) 0-1
Rhyl vs Bala Town (8) over 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!