Kaiserslautern vs St.Pauli
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As you all know, I posted a lot of different bets on a lot of different leagues. However, I don’t really enter strategies much – I tend to leave that down to the individual. What I would say is that if you want to liaise with someone who knows about winning strategies, about betting in-play, about trading, and a general expert on how to make money, I would heartily endorse http://www.thefootballtradingservice.com/ because I can personally verify for the gentleman that runs it and he absolutely knows what he is doing.
Moving onto today’s secondary featured game, which is in the German Bundesliga and features relegation battlers Kaiserslautern and St.Pauli. The hosts are in a far stronger position than their opponents in the dogfight but as we all know, anything can happen in football and the hosts will be looking to wrap up their survival much sooner rather than later.
Kaiserslautern’s problems since promotion have always been defensively. Offensively, they’ve scored a good number of goals and have caused teams problems. Defensively – only a handful of sides have conceded more Bundesliga goals than they have. Kaiserslautern are in a good vein of form though, with four wins from their last six games. Indeed, they’ve only tasted defeat twice in their last eight games so confidence is high in their camp currently. They won 0-1 at Schalke 04 last match so again, their morale is sky-high. Although I’d rather attacking midfielder Ilicevic could play in this game, Kaiserslautern still have enough to give Lakic the chances he needs to score goals here, particularly with pacey winger Tiffert and emerging Czech midfielder Moravek in their ranks. Kaiserslautern are an attacking side and that’s what I like about them, really. They score goals and thus they win games and although their defence will need improvement in summer, I think it’ll cope today enough for the hosts to claim a useful home win.
Of course, a large portion of my confidence in Kaiserslautern’s defence today comes from St.Pauli’s lack of ability. St.Pauli have lost eight out of their last nine games through a lack of ability and it’s pretty damn likely that it’ll cost them their place in the Bundesliga this year. You’d do well to find a side that works harder than they do and in their defence, they do score goals. However, their defending is absolutely atrocious and that’s perfectly illustrated by the fact that they’ve conceded a minimum of two goals per game for their last seven games in a row. In addition to that, they miss two regular starting defenders – Zambrano and Oczipka – for this game, which is going to harm their vulnerable defence even more. St.Pauli have already lost nine out of fifteen away games in the Bundesliga this season and only VfL Wolfsburg and Schalke 04 have scored less away goals than they have. St.Pauli also average conceding nearly two goals per away game.
Therefore, I’m left with no alternative but to back a home win here at decent odds of 9/10. How on earth St.Pauli hope to contain Lakic with half their defence absent I don’t know. The visitors will work hard and will probably score here but the hosts should score more, simply put, which should all but guarantee their survival. My call is the home win here.
Team news – Kaiserslautern miss Knaller, Correia, Damjanovic, Dick, Lucas, Simunek, Dzaka, Fuchs, Ilicevic, Stulin, and Zellner whereas St.Pauli miss Hain, Kessler, Oczipka, Rothenbach, Volz, Zambrano, Boll, Herber, Hennings, and Sukuta-Pasu.
Verdict: Kaiserslautern to win at 9/10.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Gimnasia De La Plata vs Newells Old Boys – home win at evens.
Gimnasia haven’t massively impressed under Cappa but they are attacking more, which is gradually improving them. However, they have the motivation of facing relegation if they don’t win games, which is a pretty big motivation, in my view! They’re in a terrible position domestically and need to improve dramatically or they’ll face the chop. They’re fortunate enough to be facing a side today in Newells Old Boys that has zero motivation for this game whatsoever, hence their dismal form. There’s not a hope in hell of Newells claiming a Copa Sudamericana place and they’re way clear of the drop zone in the averages table so it’s no surprise that they’ve lost eight out of their last eleven Primera Division games. Newells have lost all six away games in the current campaign, averaging conceding over two goals per away game whilst averaging scoring a goal per every two away games. Morale is rock-bottom and I think they’ll get undone tonight be a determined and battling Gimnasia side tonight, who frankly need the points a lot more. Therefore, I can see value in the home win at evens.
Verdict: Gimnasia De La Plata to win at evens.
Cerezo Osaka vs Albirex Niigata – home win at evens.
I’ve opposed Cerezo Osaka a lot already this season because they’ve sold too many good attacking players over the past year ala Kagawa, for example. However, they’re facing an Albirex Niigata side that suffered a lot pre-season and that should be exposed here. Albirex sold their best player by a mile – Marcio Richardes – to Urawa Red Diamonds. He was everything to them – goalscorer, creator etc. Additionally, they sold two of their most important defenders – Nishi and Nagata – so I think they’ve got a fight on their hands to stay in the J-League this season. The hosts have every oppotunity to win this game with such a weak side facing them as Albirex have only signed J-League 2 players to compensate for their departed players. Cerezo Osaka lack in attackers but the rest of their team is good enough to grind out a low-scoring win here. For me, there’s value in the home win at evens.
Verdict: Cerezo Osaka to win at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Fehervar, RKC Waalwijk.
Recommended bets:
Kaiserslautern and Fehervar at nearly 2/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Gimnasia De La Plata vs Newells Old Boys (6) 2-1
Banfield vs Quilmes (4) 1-1
Austrian Liga 1:
Gratkorn vs Hartberg (5) both sides to score
SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau (5)
WAC/St.Andra vs First Vienna (4)
Lustenau vs Grodig (6)
St.Polten vs Admira Wacker (6)
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Standard de Liege vs AA Gent (5) 2-1
Chilean Primera Division:
O’Higgins vs Deportes Iquique (7) 2-0
Union Espanola vs La Serena (7) 2-1
Croatian Prva Liga:
Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Karlovac (6) 1-1
NK Zagreb sv Slaven Koprivnica (5) 0-0
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga
Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 (6) 2-1
Danish 1st Division:
Fyn vs AB Copenhagen (4) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
English League Two:
Torquay United vs Chesterfield (5)
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
IF Fuglafjordur vs HB Torshavn (6) 1-0
Finnish Ykkonen:
PK-35 Helsinki vs KooTeePee Kotka (5) both sides to score
KPV Kokkola vs PoPa Pori (6)
French Ligue 2:
AC Ajaccio vs Sedan-Ardennes (6)
Chateauroux vs Clermont Foot (5) both sides to score
Stade Lavallois vs Le Havre (5) under 2.5 goals
Metz vs Boulogne (4)
Nantes vs Angers SCO (6)
Reims vs Dijon FCO (5)
Tours vs Grenoble Foot (5)
Troyes vs Nimes (4)
Vannes OC vs Istres (5)
German Bundesliga:
Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg (7) 2-1
Kaiserslautern vs St.Pauli (7) 2-1
German Bundesliga 2:
Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Dusseldorf (5)
Hertha BSC Berlin vs 1860 Munich (7)
VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin (4)
Alemannia Aachen vs Rot-Weiss Oberhausen (7)
Paderborn vs Osnabruck (5)
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Gyori ETO FC vs Paksi SE (4) 0-1
Fehervar vs Kecskemeti TE (8) over 2.5 goals
Irish Premier League:
Galway United vs Shamrock Rovers (7) 0-1
Bohemians vs Derry City (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Dundalk vs Bray Wanderers (4) 0-1
St.Patrick’s Athletic vs Drogheda United (7) 2-1
UCD vs Sligo Rovers (6) 0-1
Italian Serie B:
Livorno vs Atalanta Bergamo (5) at least one red card in this game
Japanese J-League:
Avispa Fukuoka vs Kashima Antlers (5) 1-1
Vissel Kobe vs Omiya Ardija (6) 1-0
Kashiwa Reysol vs Ventforet Kofu (7) 2-0
Vegalta Sendai vs Urawa Red Diamonds (6) 1-1
Yokohama F.Marinos vs Shimizu S-Pulse (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Cerezo Osaka vs Albirex Niigata (7) 1-0
Gamba Osaka vs Montedio Yamagata (6) 2-1
Jubilo Iwata vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (6) 1-1
Nagoya Grampus vs Kawasaki Frontale (5) 2-1
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
MVV Maastricht vs Cambuur Leeuwarden (6)
Eindhoven vs Volendam (5)
Telstar vs Go Ahead Eagles (5)
Zwolle vs Den Bosch (6) over 2.5 goals
Dordrecht ’90 vs Emmen (6) over 2.5 goals
RKC Waalwijk vs RBC Roosendaal (8)
Veendam vs Helmond Sport (4) under 2.5 goals
Almere City vs Fortuna Sittard (5) over 2.5 goals
AGOVV Appeldoorn vs Sparta Rotterdam (7)
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Legia Warsaw vs Widzew Lodz (4) 2-2
Zaglebie Lubin vs Lech Poznan (4) 1-1
Polish Liga 1:
Ruch Radzionkow vs LKS Lodz (6) under 2.5 goals
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Pacos de Ferreira vs Vitoria Guimaraes (6) 1-1
Singaporean S-League:
Woodlands Wellington vs Gombak United (7) 0-2
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
MSK Zilina vs Senica (5) 2-2
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Real Valladolid vs Barcelona II (6)
Swedish Allsvenskan:
GAIS Goteborg vs Elfsborg Boras (5) 2-2
Swedish Superettan:
Hammarby vs Brage (6)
Turkish Super Lig:
Sivasspor vs Genclerbirligi (5) 2-1
Ukrainian Premier League:
Tavriya Simferopol vs Volyn Lutsk (7) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!