Kashima Antlers vs Kawasaki Frontale
FreeToday’s featured game is the J-League encounter between giants Kashima Antlers and Kawasaki Frontale. In recent years, Kawasaki Frontale have become a much more consistent threat to the giants of Japanese football and this year is no exception so we should see a good game here today, hence the good odds.
However, my interest lies in the home win today. Kashima Antlers are the best side in the country, in my opinion, and I expect them to win the J-League. They’ve not been as prolific at home as they should be but four wins and one draw from five home games this season is not a bad record at all, particularly having only conceded twice during that run. They don’t even have a massively convincing record at home to Kawasaki Frontale, which is understandable, but also aids my bet odds-wise. They do always score at home to Frontale and they tend to play out some great games so going over 2.5 goals looks worthy of consideration too. Kashima scored twice in this fixture last season but failed to win the game. Not only does that tell me that they’re capable of beating the handicap today from a goalscoring perspective but also that they will want revenge for the result.
What sways me towards the home win (as well as the handicap) is the fact that Kawasaki Frontale are still supposedly missing Renatinho. Without him, they just don’t score goals, as was exemplified in their poor 0-0 draw at home to lowly Omiya Ardija last match. They’re still a good side in essence but it’s like they miss a limb without him playing. He’s their leading goalscorer with seven goals so his absence is naturally noticeable. One statistic that Kawasaki Frontale like to gloss over by scoring a lot of goals is that they’re poor in defence. Despite being fourth in the table, they’ve leaked more goals than every J-League side barring the bottom two clubs, which are Kyoto Sanga and newly-promoted Shonan Bellmare respectively. However, one statistic that they cannot escape is that nobody in the J-League can match how many goals they’ve leaked this season – a total of sixteen conceded in six games, which is an average of nearly three goals per away game! They’ve won two out of their six away games during that time and lost three of them but it’s a miracle that they’ve not lost more, really! The only way that they take points on the road is by outscoring their opponents – how are they going to do that without Renatinho? That’s the question that is ever-present in my mind for this game.
Summarised – Kashima Antlers are the better side and have a great chance to prove it, as well as take revenge for last season’s defeat against their opponents today. Kawasaki are horrendous defensively, particularly on the road, and they could be on the receiving end of a heavy defeat today unless they put in a miraculous display. I like the home win an awful lot here but I’d only endorse the handicap if Renatinho does indeed miss the game. Either way, there are some great odds on this game today, in my opinion!
Verdict: Kashima Antlers to win at 10/11 or to beat the -1.75 goal handicap at 9/4.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
SV Kapfenberg vs Salzburg – lay Salzburg at 6/5.
SV Kapfenberg are an average Bundesliga side at best and Salzburg are arguably the best side in the division. However, you have to favour the hosts a little today. It’s the first game of the season so they will be up for it and the only time that they’re good is at home – they don’t travel well whatsoever. They lost well below half of their home games last season despite finishing ninth in the table and even beat Salzburg here 2-0 last season. I’m not denying that Salzburg are undoubtedly the better of these two sides but they’ve only won here twice out of their last four visits. They’ve lost target man Marc Janko over summer to Twente Enschede in the Netherlands and they don’t have as many options in attack without him. On top of that, their committments lie in European football rather than domestically at the moment and although they ran out comfortable 5-0 winners at home to HB Torshavn mid-week, they’ll no doubt have to prepare for a tricky trip to the Faroe Islands, even though they’re 99% guaranteed a place in the next round anyway. With all of the above in mind, I think it’s worth a shot laying Salzburg today – I don’t think they should be as short as they are, at least.
Verdict: Lay Salzburg at 6/5.
Slovacko vs Teplice – away win at 7/5.
This should be an interesting game and should also be approached with caution, as indeed should all bets on sides playing their first game of the season. However, the only thing that Slovacko brought to the Gambrinus Liga last season was momentum; that’s literally all that kept them from being relegated. Well, now they’re at the start of a new season and are still horribly lacking in an important area of the team, which is known commonly as “quality”. Slovacko are a very poor side, to be blunt, and should be considered likely to lose against just about anyone. Now, although Teplice have a very good campaign last season, don’t get too carried away – they’re still a top six side at best. However, what impressed me the most was their incisive goalscoring on the road, boasting a goalscoring record that only Mlada Boleslav and Jablonc respectively could beat, hence the reason that Teplice managed six away wins in fifteen games, which is a good record for this division. Teplice are no world-beaters but they’re a lot better than Slovacko and they showed it by beating them both home and away last season. With that in mind, the away win looks good value today as Teplice are a little longer than they should be here.
Verdict: Teplice to win at 7/5.
OB Odense vs Esbjerg – under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
It’s the start of the season for both Superligaen sides today and you have to favour the hosts. Esbjerg played well for half of the season but still couldn’t disguise the fact that they simply cannot defend. They managed to compensate by scoring a lot of goals but they’re facing one of the stronger defences in Denmark today so should be found short in front of goal. OB don’t score many goals at all; they much prefer their 1-0 or 2-0 wins and I can’t see that changing at the start of the new season. OB will want to get off to a winning start without too much ceremony and I just don’t believe that Esbjerg have enough to trouble them today. I think the odds on the home win are too short for this game but I like under 2.5 goals at 5/6 as a result.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Lootus vs Levadia Tallinn – under 2.5 goals at 2/1.
This is a bold bet because Lootus are absolutely terrible and Levadia Tallinn are three or four times better than them. However, I’m basing this bet on two things; Levadia’s European committments and their lack of goalscoring. By their own lofty standards, Levadia are not scoring enough goals and are relying too much on unreliable Neemelo. It’s a dangerous game for them to play and they have been caught out a few times already this season as a result. You also have to bear in mind that they face a tough trip to Hungary next week to face bogey side Debreceni VSC after credibly taking a 1-1 draw at home against the Hungarians this week. There is no way Levadia will prioritise this game so I think we’ll see players rested. With the above in mind, I can see Levadia winning the game but not in style. I’d be astounded if Lootus scored against anyone, let alone the best side in the division, so I have to call under 2.5 goals here at risky but very generous odds of 2/1.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 2/1.
HJK Helsinki vs KuPS Kuopio – lay HJK Helsinki at 8/5.
After seemingly the whole world finally realised that HJK are crap in Europe after their defeat in Lithuania, they now host one of the revelations of the Veikkausliiga thus far; KuPS Kuopio. The visitors have scored goals and put in dominating displays wherever they’ve played this season and should be taken seriously whilst momentum assists their over-achieveing ways. HJK are the better of the two sides, no doubt, but their focus will be on the return leg against Ekranas Panevezys next week rather than this game so players will be rested. Aside from that, HJK have really struggled to break down resilient defences this season and KuPS certainly have one of those. HJK haven’t scored enough in general and with players rested today, I feel that could be matched by in-form KuPS. HJK are far too short with the above in mind so laying them could be a good value bet today, although approach with caution as ever – HJK won 5-0 at KuPS on the opening day of the season although KuPS committed suicide defensively on that day, conceding twice very early in the game.
Verdict: Lay HJK Helsinki at 8/5.
TPV Tampere vs KooTeePee Kotka – home win at 2/1.
I like this bet a lot more than I should when you consider how much better KooTeePee are than TPV Tampere! However, I’ll take a stab at it because the odds are really far too generous today.
KooTeePee play a very predictable, efficient type of football which naturally has pros and cons. It has pros because when they’re in-form, they don’t concede goals and thus tend to grind out wins. However, this style of football doesn’t leave them creating many chances and thus they don’t score many goals. Therefore, when they’re out-of-form, they’re prime candidates to bet against because they start leaking goals and don’t score enough to counter it. They’re a little like a poor man’s version of Inter Turku from the Veikkausliiga, for those of you who follow Finnish football on some level. KooTeePee have lost three consecutive games now, which counts as bad form in my world! They’ve shipped six goals during that run, scored just once, and have lost twice at home. This is a zone that they’re definitely not comfortable in and although they have to exit this barren run at somepoint, I think they’ve picked a bad day to try and end it. TPV Tampere are a poor side at best and will do well to stay in the Ykkonen this season. However, they do have strong momentum following back-to-back wins at Hameenlinna and at home to MP Mikkeli respectively, scoring five goals during those two games and keeping two clean sheets. TPV are buoyant as a result and they know they can beat KooTeePee – they did so in Tampere last year too – so they’ll fancy their chances against their out-of-form visitors today, as do I. 2/1 is far too long on the home win here with the above in mind but again, be careful – if KooTeePee score first then they have the capability to grind out the win from that. Nonetheless, I really like the home win here and fancy TPV’s chances today.
Verdict: TPV Tampere to win at 2/1.
Shimizu S-Pulse vs Jubilo Iwata – under 2.5 goals at evens.
This has the hallmarks of being a classic under 2.5 goals game in my world. Shimizu are over-achieving this season and have been riding a wave of momentum which has been brought to a halt following the mid-season break. They’re now hosting a side that is used to grinding out draws because they’re atypically not good enough to break out of mid-table at best. Iwata don’t score enough goals to ever be a threat (just two on the road in the J-League this season, in fact) but they don’t concede many either. Defence is their only strength and you can rest assured that they’ll park the bus today and may even take a draw if they’re lucky. Shimizu are going to be a little rusty for this game, naturally, so I wouldn’t include them as cannon fodder today – they’re too short, in my opinion. They may well win the game by a goal or two but I think unders is the way forward here as I’d be surprised to see Iwata register on the road. This bet hinges largely on when the first goal is scored (if there are any) naturally but I think there’s a good chance of this game going under and the odds show decent value for it too.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Jauniba vs Jurmala – away win at 4/5.
These odds are a little shorter than I’d like but I still fancy it. Jurmala are not only better than Jauniba but have also been a revelation on the road this season, even winning at giants Liepajas Metalurgs in their last away game – a result that they’re frankly not good enough to produce. However, they’ve been brilliant on the road this season with four wins in six games, a record only league leaders FK Ventspils can better at the moment and it’s because of their lethal counter-attacking style, which helps them average scoring two goals per away game currently. Jurmala have bizarrely lost all five home games in the Virsliga this season but they’re effective on the road because of their counter-attack. I would normally expect Jauniba to sit back and play for the draw but a morale-boosting win last match will no doubt give them the impetus to attack Jurmala so the superior visitors really should win this one today. I was hoping for evens on the away win but I’ll take them at 4/5 although I’d leave it if the odds drop (as they probably will) because Jurmala are a mid-table side at best.
Verdict: Jurmala to win at 4/5.
Valerenga Oslo vs Kongsvinger – home win with -1.75 handicap at 3/4.
I can only sum up Valerenga’s recent form with two words – “ominous” and “dominant”. They blew their bitter rivals Lillestrom away by winning 4-1 away from home against a side that doesn’t concede goals as a rule by blitzing them in a second-half frenzy. They followed up that win with a difficult trip to face Odd Grenland on their notoriously difficult astro-turf and won there too. Valerenga are absolutely flying at the moment and are looking genuine title contenders for a change! It’s arguably the first time that they have since the days of John Carew although the quality has rarely been lacking; just the consistency. However, Valerenga are flying because they’re scoring so many goals and with five wins and two draws from seven home games this season, you have to feel that they’ll win today too. They average scoring well over two goals per home game and are by far the superior of these two sides today. Kongsvinger just look…well, relegated. Losing 2-0 at home last match to a Stromsgodset side that are atrocious away from home is unforgivable. Kongsvinger boast no goal threat and have already lost six out of eight on the road in the Eliteserien this season whilst leaking over two goals per away game. They’re in poor form and I’d be astounded if they weren’t relegated this season. 3/4 is short for a handicap but I’ll be stunned if Valerenga don’t manage it – hell, they might even break bigger handicaps if you feel lucky enough to back them to do so.
Verdict: Valerenga Oslo to beat the -1.75 goal handicap at 3/4.
Spartak Moscow vs Rubin Kazan – away win at 33/20.
I may have liked TPV Tampere earlier but that’s nothing compared to how much I like this one. View this as a type of Arsenal vs Chelsea game; the flambuoyant but ultimately disappointing hosts entertain the iron machine of the visitors. Spartak Moscow only play well with momentum and they won’t have any from their shocking display in the Russian Cup mid-week so I don’t fancy their chances today. They’ve got the individual ability to cause any side problems but as a team, they’re often found lacking, particularly in defence. However, Rubin Kazan are an absolute machine that just don’t concede goals. Their flaw is not scoring enough but they hammered three goals past Krylya Sovetov Samara last match so they have something to bring into this game, at least. Rubin have conceded just once in five away games this season because of their rock-solid defence and although their football is far from pretty, it’s pretty damn effective and I expect it to be today too.
Interestingly enough, out of the last four times this fixture has been played (twice at either ground), the away side has always won. Rubin have won 3-0 here for two years running and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar scoreline today. The odds on the away win is generous enough but I even fancy a very cheeky -1.75 goal handicap at 11/2.
Verdict: Rubin Kazan to win at 33/20.
MSK Zilina vs Zlate Moravce – both sides to score at 5/4.
MSK Zilina were shocking in Malta mid-week, somehow losing to Birkirkara 1-0. They’ll have taken a hefty blow mentally as a result but have a chance of redemption today. However, I’m not interested in the 1X2 betting for this game – Zilina are too short, although they should do the necessary damage. What I am interested in is that they’ll be focusing on the return trip of Birkirkara next week and that their usually solid defence has been shattered far too easily, as indeed it has been proven in friendlies too. Although Zilina will probably win this game, I think the odds on both sides scoring is far too generous at 5/4 so I fancy that outcome today as newly-promoted Zlate Moravce earned their promotion by scoring an awful lot of goals and will want to impress in their first game of their first season back in the Corgon Liga, particularly against one of the biggest sides in the division.
Verdict: Both teams to score at 5/4.
Nitra vs Dubnica – home win at 13/20.
These odds are too long on Nitra, which is why I like it! Nitra have already played two competitive games in the UEFA Europa League and although they eventually succumbed to defeat against Gyori ETO FC of Hungary, they scored in both legs and maintained their usual potency as a result. Nitra are poor defensively but they score enough goals for it to not matter in games like this. Dubnica are a poor side and are especially poor away from home because they don’t score goals. Most Slovak sides are capable of beating each other and if this game was at Dubnica then I wouldn’t touch it. However, with Nitra having match practice and the ability to score goals on their side, not to mention a better team, I feel that 13/20 on the home win is too generous to overlook – they should be much shorter for this game.
Verdict: Nitra to win at 13/20.
AIK Solna vs Malmo – away win at 5/4.
I was gobsmacked when I saw AIK at 2/1 to win this game; the bookies have really approached this game well! I was hoping Malmo would be much longer than they are but we’ll have to make do here.
After an expectedly poor showing mid-week against Luxembourgian minnows Jeunesse d’Esch, AIK now have work to do in the away leg, which is next week, thus they will be resting players. They’ve lost their iron defence this season and have looked incredibly vulnerable as a result because they don’t score anywhere near enough goals. Malmo, however, have been a revelation and are scoring goals for fun both at home and on the road. They’ve only won three out of seven on the road but that’s quite good for the Allsvenskan, really! Malmo have scored a lot more than anyone else on the road, which makes them a consistent threat, so you have to fancy the away win as they’re facing an impotent AIK side with their focus elsewhere, although do approach with caution as these two are big rivals. It’s interesting to note that AIK haven’t scored for their last two games against Malmo, losing 1-0 at home to them last season too…
Verdict: Malmo to win at 4/5.
Syrianska Sodertalje vs Degerfors – home win at evens.
I like the home win here because Degerfors should be on the descent mentally. They’ve had a great campaign following promotion but two consecutive defeats and the sale of their best player should send them spiralling downwards and I expect this to be one of the games that pushes them further down the table. Syrianska haven’t had a great campaign so far but they’re a good side, especially at home, and have won four out of seven on their own turf already this season. They’ve won two out of their last three games and drew at today’s opponents Degerfors last match where they could really have won the game. I expect them to make amends and win this one today with home comforts although I expect a low-scoring game here, particularly Degerfors are unlikely to funtion as the usual unit without their best player.
Verdict: Syrianska Sodertalje to win at evens.
Grasshoppers Zurich vs Neuchatel Xamax – home win with -1.75 handicap at 2/1.
At 33/1, Grasshoppers are definitely worth a flutter to win the Super League title this year. They were absolutely superb last season and have the foundations to re-build their once great team and what better time to start than now? Young Boys Bern have sold their best striker and Basel are ageing so Grasshoppers should never be such long odds to win the title.
However, my primary interest today is the home win, which should be fairly straightforward. Grasshoppers are simply a much better side and are utterly dominant at home, scoring goals at will. They’ve won three consecutive games against Neuchatel Xamax and I expect this game today to produce their fourth consecutive win – they’re just too good for their opponents. Neuchatel simply don’t travel well and although they have a habit of causing Grasshoppers a problem in the past, I don’t envision it happening today. Neuchatel are facing a very determined and capable Grasshoppers today and I really fancy them to take a heavy beating, even though it’s the first game of the Super League season. Either way, the odds on Grasshoppers to beat the handicap at home are laughably good when you bear in mind that they averaged scoring well over two goals per home game last season.
Verdict: Grasshoppers Zurich to beat the -1.75 goal handicap at 2/1.
Accumulator fodder:
Flora Tallinn, Trans Narva, Valerenga Oslo, Zenit St.Petersburg, Tampines Rovers, Metalist Kharkiv, Dynamo Kiev.
Recommended bets:
Trans Narva, Valerenga Oslo, and Rubin Kazan at 3/1.
Kashima Antlers, TPV Tampere, and Nitra at 7/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
Austrian Bundesliga:
SV Kapfenberg vs Salzburg (5) 1-1
Wiener Neustadt vs LASK Linz (6) over 2.5 goals
SV Ried vs Sturm Graz (5) 0-0
Brazilian Serie A:
Vitoria vs Sao Paulo (4) 1-2
Vasco da Gama vs Atletico Paranaense (6) 1-0
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Slovacko vs Teplice (6) 0-1
Hradlec Kralove vs Sparta Prague (6) under 2.5 goals
Danish Superligaen:
OB Odense vs Esbjerg (6) under 2.5 goals
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Universidad Catolica vs Deportivo Quito (5) 0-1
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Flora Paide vs Trans Narva (8) 0-2
Lootus vs Levadia Tallinn (7) under 2.5 goals
Flora Tallinn vs Kuressaare (8) -1.75 handicap
Viljandi Tulevik vs Maag Tammeka Tartu (6) 1-2
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
HJK Helsinki vs KuPS Kuopio (5) 2-2
Finnish Ykkonen:
TPV Tampere vs KooTeePee Kotka (5)
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs Fram Reykjavik (6) 2-2
Japanese J-League:
Omiya Ardija vs Nagoya Grampus (5) 1-1
Tokyo vs Vissel Kobe (6) under 2.5 goals
Shimizu S-Pulse vs Jubilo Iwata (7) under 2.5 goals
Montedio Yamagata vs Vegalta Sendai (5) 0-0
Kashima Antlers vs Kawasaki Frontale (8) 2-0
Albirex Niigata vs Cerezo Osaka (6) 1-1
Latvian Virsliga:
Jauniba vs Jurmala (7) 1-2
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Valerenga Oslo vs Kongsvinger (8) -1.75 handicap
Russian Premier League:
Spartak Moscow vs Rubin Kazan (6) 0-2
Zenit St.Petersburg vs Sibir Novosibirsk (8) under 2.5 goals
Dinamo Moscow vs Rostov-na-Donu (5) 0-0
Singaporean S-League:
Balestier Khalsa vs Tampines Rovers (8) 0-2
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
MSK Zilina vs Zlate Moravce (7) both sides to score
Slovan Bratislava vs Kosice (7) over 2.5 goals
Nitra vs Dubnica (7) over 2.5 goals
Ruzomberok vs Tatran Presov (5) 1-1
Spartak Trnava vs Senica (7) 2-0
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Celje vs Domzale (7) over 2.5 goals
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Mjallby Solvesborg vs Brommapojkarna (7) 1-0
IFK Goteborg vs Halmstads (7) 2-1
AIK Solna vs Malmo (6) 0-1
Swedish Superettan:
Angelholm vs Brage (7)
Osters vs Ljungskile (5) over 2.5 goals
Trollhattan vs IFK Norrkoping (6)
GIF Sundsvall vs Assyriska Sodertalje (7)
Syrianska Sodertalje vs Degerfors (7) over 2.5 goals
Swiss Super League:
Grasshoppers Zurich vs Neuchatel Xamax (8) -1.75 handicap
Thun vs Young Boys Bern (6) over 2.5 goals
Ukrainian Premier League:
Sevastopol vs Metalist Kharkiv (8) under 2.5 goals
Vorskla Poltava vs Illichivets Mariupol (7) under 2.5 goals
Dynamo Kiev vs Tavriya Simferopol (8) 2-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!