Kashima Antlers vs Pohang Steelers
FreeToday’s featured game is the Asian Champions League game between Kashima Antlers and Pohang Steelers. This one-off game naturally favours the Japanese side as they’re at home so the South Korean visitors have it all to do today to have any chance of upsetting the odds and reaching the latter stages of this competition.
Kashima Antlers have won every Champions League game they’ve played this season. They’ve not been at their best domestically and have looked a little leaky defensively but they’ve somehow beaten every opponent they’ve faced, including back-to-back victories against Pohang Steelers’ title rivals Jeonbuk Motors. This record in itself should indicate to you all the experience of today’s hosts in this competition and should exemplify how seriously they take winning it too. Exiting the competition last year at the same stage at home to FC Seoul, who are ironically another South Korean side, has clearly wounded them and they’re looking stronger than ever as a result. Antlers were unfortunate enough to lose on penalties that day – I doubt they’ll be put in a similar position today due to their superiority. They’ve scored two or more goals in every home game that they’ve ever played against South Korean opposition and I fancy them to continue that record today. Kashima have had a nice seven day break before this game so they’ll be refreshed and as well-marshalled as ever, which makes them favourites against most sides in this competition at this point, in my opinion! I can’t see the Japanese outfit slipping out of the competition yet again so I see them put in a professional stint today in what should be a fairly comfortable home win.
I normally wouldn’t bother with the handicap for this game but Pohang Steelers, last year’s champions of the Chmapions League, have a lot of problems. They’ve just sacked their manager, which doesn’t help ahead of this tough trip! They’ve not won in any of their last five games in all competitions, losing four times along the way, which naturally lowers morale and removes momentum. Their last match was an embarrassing 5-2 defeat at home against Jeju United and that was just four days ago, which means Kashima have had three days longer than their opponents to prepare for this game. This game was going to be hard enough for Pohang Steelers as it is but with the above in mind, they’re really going to struggle. They’ve already lost in Australia against an out-of-form Adelaide United and on their last trip to Japan against a mixed form Sanfrecce Hiroshima side so they don’t travel well as it is. The Steelers are a very capable side but with so many problems and less time to prepare for this game, it’s hard to see them doing anything today but it’s easy to see them conceding as they’ve done it an average of two times per away game in the Champions League this season already, thus making them sitting ducks today.
Kashima Antlers are an experienced in this competition and I frankly can’t look past them being in the next round. They’re the better side by far, they’ve got home advantage, and they’re playing demoralised and leaderless visitors. In my eyes, the home win with a -1.75 goal handicap at evens looks good value today with the above information in mind.
Verdict: Kashima Antlers to beat the -1.75 goal handicap at evens.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo – home win at 5/6.
Games between Brazilian clubs are often hard to call so I tend to stay away. However, I have to climb aborad Cruzeiro here even though the odds aren’t as flattering as I’d like them to be. They reached the final of the Copa Libertadores last season and were unfortunate to lose. Could they do it again this year? I initially said no to that question; I now say maybe. Cruzeiro are growing in stature as the competition wears on and their demolition of Club Nacional de Montevideo in both legs of the last stage was absolutely remarkable. They’ve not travelled well in the Libertadores this year so to make that dreaded away trip to Club Nacional in Montevideo and win it so convincingly was nothing short of magnificent in my eyes. Cruzeiro are showing a real hunger to win the competition yet again and who can argue with them? They’re dynamite at home with five consecutive Libertadores home wins this year already, beating the -1.75 goal handicap in each of those five games despite facing some defensively strong sides along the way. Cruzeiro rested players for the trip to Internacional in Serie A at weekend and still won so confidence is high in the camp and they’ve got a dominating home advantage so you really have to favour them tonight.
Visitors Sao Paulo look a bit rocky. They couldn’t manage to beat an under-strength Flamengo side at weekend despite fielding more first-team players and were utterly woeful in front of goal against Universitario Lima in their last Copa Libertadores game, drawing 0-0 and only progressing on penalties. It was a mistake to rest Wellington as they really needed an alternative in attack as Dagoberto is just too lightweight sometimes. Sao Paulo have struggled on the road in the Libertadores this season with defeat in Colombia against Once Caldas Manizales, draws in Mexico with Monterrey and in Peru with Universitario Lima (failing to score in both games), and claimed their only win on the road this season in Paraguay against a seemingly uninterested Nacional Asuncion. Bluntly – they’re fooling nobody this season. They shouldn’t have progressed to this stage due to poor displays and I think they’ll finally get what’s coming to them as they did in last year’s Copa Libertadores against Cruzeiro, losing 2-1.
5/6 isn’t my favourite set of odds for this game but the above shows just why I’m taking it. Cruzeiro are looking twice the side that Sao Paulo are currently and look absolutely dead-set on winning the trophy this season at the moment I’m failing to see a side that can stop them.
Verdict: Cruzeiro to win at 5/6.
Cardiff City vs Leicester City – home win at evens.
No secret here – Cardiff are just better than Leicester, in my opinion. Leicester have done phenomenally well with Mandaric’s millions granting them success this year and frankly they’ve exceeded all expectiations with some very rigid displays – credit to them. However, this is simply a bridge too far as the first leg of this game proved. Cardiff’s promotion is long overdue and I think we may finally see it this year. Dave Jones’ side is looking potent and in control so you have to side with them here. They were composed in the away game between the two sides and a wonderful free-kick from Whittingham won them the game. Cardiff won the game at home against Leicester earlier this season and they should be able to do the same again today with Leicester being forced to abandon their strong defence tonight to try and reach the play-off final as they need to attack. This will be a problem for them; they haven’t even averaged scoring a goal per away game in the Championship this season so why that’ll change now is beyond me. They look tired and out of ideas whereas Cardiff look composed and dangerous, scoring nearly two goals per home game on average this season. I can’t see anything but a comfortable home win tonight for the superior hosts and odds of evens are more than good enough to take it at – I was expecting odds of 4/5 on this selection!
Verdict: Cardiff City to win at evens.
Sengkang Punggol vs Etoile – lay Etoile at 8/5.
2/5 on newly-promoted Etoile to win at a shitty but experienced Sengkang Punggol? I’m not buying it. This French-only side is a good side and specialises in keeping other sides out. However, the fact that they’ve only scored five on the road this season in five games tells you they don’t score enough goals, particularly with three of those goals being in the same game. They’ve only won one away game this season because they’re simply not there yet although they can be with time. They’re a controlling side but haven’t perfected the art of efficiency yet by any means so I don’t see them winning today, particularly after their draw at lowly Albirex Niigate recently indicated just how bad they are in front of goal. Sengkang are one of the worst sides in the S-League but they’re experienced in battling against hopeless situations. Their defence is poor but they’re not bad enough to merit odds of 2/5 on the away win today – that’s just ridiculous! Sengkang at least bring some momentum into the game following a draw at Beijing Guoan last match so backing them to do anything but lose this game today at 8/5 looks good value to me today as there’s a good chance that Etoile won’t win this one due to their own handicap in attack.
Verdict: Lay Etoile at 8/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Olympique Lyonnas, Tauras Taurage.
Recommended bets:
Kashima Antlers, Cardiff City, and Olympique Lyonnais at 4/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA Europa League Final:
Atletico Madrid vs Fulham (6) under 2.5 goals
Copa Libertadores:
Flamengo vs Universidad de Chile (7) 1-0
Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo (7) 2-1
Asian Champions League:
Kashima Antlers vs Pohang Steelers (8) -1.75 handicap
Adelaide United vs Jeonbuk Motors (6) under 2.5 goals
Zob Ahan vs Mes Kerman (5) 0-0
Al Hilal vs Bunyodkor (6) 1-1
English Championship Play-Off:
Cardiff City vs Leicester City (8) 2-1
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
B68 vs NSI Runavik (6) 2-2
French Ligue 1:
Olympique Lyonnais vs AS Monaco (8) 2-0
Greek Super League:
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK Salonika (7) 2-1
Aris Salonika vs AEK Athens (5) 1-0
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Tauras Taurage vs Mazeikiai (8) 2-0
Atletas vs Kruoja Pakruojis (6) 1-2
Zalgiris Vilnius vs Banga Gargzdai (4) 0-0
Suduva Marijampole vs Ekranas Panevezys (6) 1-1
Siauliai vs Klaipeda (7) 1-0
Mexican Primera Division:
Pachuca vs Toluca (7) 2-1
Morelia vs Santos Laguna (6) over 2.5 goals
Singaporean S-League:
Sengkang Punggol vs Etoile (5) 0-0
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Elfsborg Boras vs AIK Solna (6) 1-0
Swiss Challenge League:
Lausanne Sports vs Gossau (7) over 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!