Koln vs Mainz 05
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Today’s featured game is the Bundesliga encounter between Koln and Mainz 05.
Hosts Koln are far from a great Bundesliga side but they’re well-organised and aren’t easy to beat on their own turf. They had a dubious start to the season but have eased into their usual style now with defeats a-plenty on the road and respectful results on their own turf. Indeed, Koln have won four out of their last five home games, keeping four clean sheets along the way. Indeed, only a highly-polished Borussia Moenchengladbach display has seen Koln lose in their last five home games and caused Koln to have their first game without scoring when playing at home since the start of August. Koln are a good unit but we can’t gloss over the fact that Lukas Podolski carries the team, really. Thirteen goals in fourteen apperances this season tells you just how good Podolski is right now because he’s not got top class service here. That’s why I’m not concerned about Koln missing fellow strikers Chihi and Novakovic respectively tonight – Podolski is absolutely on-fire and with the support of Peszko, Jajalo, and Clemens from midfield, you know that Koln have goals in them tonight.
Mainz 05 are a bit of a bastard to bet against, unfortunately. This side will do the unexpected most of the time although the reason I’m not too concerned about that here is because they tend to produce their bigger shocks against the bigger clubs. Mainz 05 are not an easy side to beat at all but at the same time, they’re simply not a threat in front of goal. Szalai’s continued absence and Schurrle’s pre-season exit for Bayer 04 Leverkusen have left Mainz 05 with an issue. They signed Eliteserien hotshot Udah to ease their problems but he’s not had the desired impact just yet. Allagui and Choupo-Moting are doing a decent job but none of these players concern me like Szalai or Schurrle would and that is a major handicap of Mainz’s. They’ve got some good midfielders, Mainz, particularly Austrian playmaker Ivanschitz. However, he’s out for tonight, which is a big blow for the visitors. He joins experienced Macedonian defender Noveski on the sidelines and those two absentees are people Mainz 05 simply can’t replace, in my view. Mainz 05 have been hard to beat away from home this season but they’re not what I would call a “dangerous side”. True enough, they’ve only been beaten away from home once this season, but who have they faced – Bayern Munich? Bv09 Borussia Dortmund? No – just some hard-working and out-of-form sides. I’ll extend Mainz 05 the respect that they deserve but that respect ends after appreciating that they can draw with most sides in this division – they can’t beat most of the sides in it without an inspired display.
Therefore, I am all over Koln to win this one with draw no bet cover. Even if Koln don’t show up, I’d be surprised to see them lose this game. It takes a good display for a side to win at Koln and I don’t think Mainz 05 are playing well enough to produce that kind of display currently. Koln have won their last three home games against Mainz 05 and thus the home win with draw no bet cover really appeals to me at 4/5.
Verdict: Koln to win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Tuesday’s Picks
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
German Bundesliga:
Koln vs Mainz 05 (7) 2-1
Italian Serie A:
Genoa vs Internazionale (5) 0-1
Scottish Premier League:
St.Johnstone vs Aberdeen (5) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!