KR Reykjavik vs FH Hafnarfjordur
FreeToday is a sad day for us all where we say farewell to club football and enter the minefield of international football for a week or so – well, barring some of the more obscure leagues. After today, I can only emphasise massive caution in any bets as value is beyond difficult to find for international games.
Today’s featured game is the massive derby match in Iceland’s Urvalsdeild between giants KR Reykjavik and reigning champions FH Hafnarfjordur. A win tonight for the hosts sees them leap to the top of the table and would all but end FH’s chances of winning the title this year so this could be a very important game indeed.
KR Reykjavik are Iceland’s oldest and most successful club so their fans are naturally a little impatient for silverware with just three minor domestic trophies over the past few years. They’d much prefer to get their hands on the Urvalsdeild trophy, something that has been out of their grasp since 2003. KR have been fighting hard to reclaim what they feel is rightfully theirs and they finally have a great chance of doing so, particularly if they win tonight. Although their home record isn’t particularly flattering this season, I attribute that to a rather random Urvalsdeild season with most of the heavyweights under-achieving and minnows like IBV Vestmannaeyjar doing very well indeed. However, KR’s form of late leaves them as the best side in Iceland as they’ve won seven out of their last eight Urvalsdeild games, scoring a hefty twenty-one goals along the way, which is an average of nearly three goals per game. Ex-Celtic striker Finnbogason has used his giant frame to big advantage in attack this season in both assists and goals with Takefusa benefiting immensely from his towering strike partner. The reason I think KR have done so well this season is not solely because of the number of goals that they score but their options in attack with ex-Molde FK striker Baldvinsson as “back-up”, who is good enough to start in this division, let alone play as second fiddle! There’s both experience and youth in this squad and they’ve blended particularly well this season so I fancy KR to do tonight what they’ve not done since 2003 – beat FH at home.
FH have really let me down this season. They’ve lacked composure, discipline, clinical finishing, and any kind of defensive organisation and will hopefully face the appropriate punishment by the end of the season as a result. They’ve just looked very complacent for a side that has won many Urvalsdeild titles in recent times and I don’t think they’ve done anywhere near enough this season to be even close to where they are now in the table, let alone have a chance of winning the title. The fact that only five Urvalsdeild sides have conceded more goals than they have tells a story in itself! FH haven’t had a dismal campaign on the road but it’s not been particularly good either with just three wins in eight away games. They’ve defended in a semi-decent fashion on the road but their lack of goalscoring has cost them. FH have won just once in their last three away games, losing 3-1 at relegation-threatened UMF Grindavik in their most recent away game. FH have even been throwing leads away this season, which again speaks volumes about them currently. I look at FH’s side and just wonder where their goals will come from tonight. They’ve heavily relied upon striker Bjornsson this season but look totally lost without him. The reason they did so well last season was because they also had Gudnason and Vilhjalmsson contributing but both have under-performed this season and FH look a lot weaker for it.
Ultimately, FH’s form of late has reflected their season as a whole by being patchy and unconvincing. I expect their weak defence to finally be torn apart by an eager and massively in-form KR Reykjavik as they really need to win this game today and FH have bottled every other “must-win” game this season; why not this one too? This is a massive game in Iceland, probably the biggest Icelandic derby nowadays, so expect plenty of cards and goals. However, with KR’s excellent form at the moment and strong mental belief I have to favour them to win this one at 23/20.
Verdict: KR Reykjavik to win at 23/20.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
APOEL Nicosia vs Ermis – under 2.5 goals at 10/11.
This is a bold call because APOEL are easily two or three times that Ermis are but as ever, there is method to the madness. First of all, APOEL played a draining 120-minute game with Getafe last week in the UEFA Europa League Qualifiers and were desperately unlucky not to qualify after playing their Spanish opponents off the park. APOEL looked frighteningly good and I think they may suffer from something of an anti-climax by facing little Ermis here, not to mention the fatigue factor following a draining game against good opponents. The other factor is that APOEL are currently under suspension and thus cannot have any fans at this game so their tired legs may not get the spurring on that they need. All in all, giants APOEL are primed for a tiring game today and although I still think they’ll win the game somewhat comfortably due to their weak opponents, my call is a brave under 2.5 goals for this game today.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 10/11.
Brno vs Sparta Prague – over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Brno are bottom of the Gambrinus Liga following five defeats in six games. However, that doesn’t really tell the whole story. Of course, Brno’ shit defence contributes largely to it as they already average conceding over two goals per game but generally, they’ve not been terrifically different from normal. They lose their away games as per usual but have been a little poorer than normal at home so far. Defence has never been their strong point – it was always goalscoring at home that bailed them out and they’ve not lost that this year, scoring in all three home games this season. They were stupidly poor at home against Usti nad Labem in their opening game of the season but have been good since then at home, losing 3-2 against a fortuitous Slavia Prague despite having a two-goal lead and beating in-form Mlada Boleslav 3-1 last match. Brno do have goals in them; they just only play well at home so I expect them to turn up tonight, particularly as they’re facing Czech Republic’s biggest club.
Visitors Sparta Prague are not in a great position to be facing an unpredictable Brno side, however. Back-to-back defeats against MSK Zilina of Slovakia in the UEFA Champions League Qualfiers sees Sparta Prague shunned into the UEFA Europa League, which they’re not too impressed with, understandably. They looked poor in both legs, however, so it can’t have been unexpected. Sparta have looked average at best this season with goals still in their arsenal but their defence looking vulnerable.
Veteran centre-back Repka is the only one that holds this club together; without him, they’re hopeless. Only talented Ivorian youngster Wilfried presents a consistent threat in attack for Sparta but the loan signing of Vachousek from Teplice should give them additional creativity to accomodate for Sparta’s less talented strikers. Sparta really need to bounce back from their defeat against title rivals Viktoria Plzen in their most recent Gambrinus Liga game as the gap between themselves and the afore-mentioned is already ten points, although Sparta are playing their game in hand today. They must remain vigilant because this Plzen side looks incredibly vigilant so Sparta have to push for the away win here instead of being content with a draw and sneaking a goal if required. The Gambrinus Liga is not a frequent ally of the away win so I have my doubts over Sparta’s quest but Brno’s defence is bad enough to concede goals here so Sparta won’t be too down.
The problem for Sparta is that Brno are good at scoring goals at home; they always have been. They’ve averaged scoring two goals per home game so far this season and two out of the last three meetings between these two sides have gone over 2.5 goals so I fancy this one today. Sparta have to be at least a little tired from their trip to Slovakia last week and they don’t convince me enough defensively at the moment so I fancy this game to go over 2.5 goals today, particularly if the real Brno turn up – they’ve only failed to score at home to Sparta Prague once in Sparta’s last six visits! I therefore also like both sides to score at 10/11 too.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Victoria Branesti vs Astra Ploiesti – both sides to score at 10/11.
Victoria Branesti are undeniably short on quality in Liga 1 but what they’re not short on is belief, something which has shown immensely during their first few games. You can look at their record of four defeats in five games and disregard them entirely or you can look at the games they’ve played (trips to three of Romania’s best sides – CFR Cluj, Steaua Bucharest, and Poli Timisoara) and have given a good account of themselves. Indeed, the trip to CFR Cluj is the only one this season that Victoria Branesti haven’t scored in so their potency isn’t in question. Their defence is undeniably susceptible and they’ve been caught out a few times already this season but whilst they’re scoring goals, they’re worth taking seriously. They’ve scored three goals in two “home” games, winning one of the games, and generally making nuisances of themselves. Relegation for Victoria Branesti this season looks a distinct possibility, particularly with the handicap of having no home advantage this season, but I’ll stick with them whilst they play with as much spirit as they are currently playing with.
Visitors Astra Ploiesti have lofty ambitions this year and although the statistics don’t show it, they are improving. They’ve claimed an impressive 2-2 draw at CFR Cluj and made Dinamo Bucharest work for a 2-1 win at home earlier this season so they’re certainly growing in ability. The demise of Unirea Urziceni has boosted their cause too with their place becoming available and also by Astra signing one of their many exiting players – defender Galamaz – so it’s worthwhile to not underestimate Astra this season, although I’m not sure they’re ready to achieve their long-term goal yet. Much like their hosts today, Astra have scored in four out of their five games this season and have scored in both away games thus far so they look set to cause a few problems themselves on their trip to Buzau so I do see goals here today.
I think both sides are good enough to score against each other but more importantly they’re both bad enough defensively to concede against each other. With statistics supporting my theory, the logical step is to back both sides to score in this game today.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 10/11.
Anzhi Makhachkala vs Sibir Novosibirsk – home win at 4/5.
This relegation battle couldn’t have come at a better time for hosts Anzhi and couldn’t have come at a worse time for visitors Sibir. Anzhi have played very well in all of their games since their unconvincing 2-1 win at Pskov 747 in the Russian Cup barring their trip to giants CSKA Moscow, winning three times along the way and keeping three clean sheets in their last five games. Anzhi are coping well with sides around them defensively by keeping it tight and although their goalscoring isn’t as good as it needs to be, they still look competent enough to stay in the division this year. They’ve won two consecutive home games in the Premier League without conceding a goal in either game and that looks unlikely to change today as they host a fairly useless Sibir Novosibirsk side that has recently sold their leader and top goalscorer Medvedev to Rubin Kazan. Anzhi rarely concede at home as it is but without him, Sibir have little chance of changing that record. Sibir have only just returned from a 5-0 drubbing in the Netherlands against Dutch giants PSV Eindhoven and will undoubtedly be tired from the lengthy trip. To play a massive relegation battle against Anzhi upon their return is largely unwelcome and as a result, I expect them to struggle today. Sibir have already lost seven out of eight away games this season, drawing the other game, whilst averaging conceding nearly three goals per game. It’s that kind of abject defending that gives me hope in Anzhi scoring a rare goal today and if they do then they should win this game as I just don’t see where Sibir’s goals are going to come from.
I initially thought that 4/5 was a bit too short for this selection but with the above in mind, I think it’s about right and that there should be some value in the home win today.
Verdict: Anzhi Makhachkala to win at 4/5.
Winterthur vs Aarau – home win at 33/20.
This is a risky bet but the odds make it look worthwhile to me. Winterthur had a great campaign in the Challenge League last year and were very nearly promoted as a result. They reached that level due to strong home form with ten wins in fifteen games. They averaged scoring over two goals per home game and were generally a very difficult side to play against. However, something of a baptism of fire this season fixture-wise has left Winterthur floundering as they suffered three consecutive defeats at the start of the season. However, those defeats were at promotion favourites Lausanne Sports, at home to a talented Kriens, and away against a potent Biel-Bienne so it’s not the most unforgivable of runs. Since then, Winterthur have woken up and won two consecutive games against a very good Servette side and at a decent Yverdon Sport side so momentum favours them today, which is a very dangerous plus for an under-achieving but talented Winterthur side that really shouldn’t be underestimated here. Winterthur lost Nigerian starlet Emeghara and Swiss midfielder Lenjani to Grasshoppers Zurich over the summer but they’ve kept hold of Bieli, who was responsible for half of their lethal Emeghara-Bieli dual attack last season so they’re still a dangerous side this year.
Visitors Aarau aren’t the same side that were relgated last year. Financial problems and the the changing of divisions saw a good number of their side leave and be replaced by youngsters and it’s shown so far this season with their only impressive displays coming at home. Just look at who they lost in the transfer window though – midfielder Lang (Grasshoppers Zurich), striker Mustafi (Arminia Bielefeld), defener Aquaro (CSKA Sofia), left-back Elmer (Sion), and goalkeeper Benito (Grasshoppers Zurich), just to name a few. All of those players were very much integral members of this Aarau side and although they’ll be pleased to have kept hold of Macedonian striker Stojkov (and his Cameroonian striker partner Bengondo), they still have problems in other areas of their side and are far from the complete unit as a result.
With the above in mind, I don’t think the hosts should be so generously priced. They’re an experienced and able side in this division with a good amount of momentum supporting them today whereas their opponents aren’t fully gelled yet and still lack good players in vital areas of their team. Although this game could be a close one, I think Winterthur’s price is too generous to ignore tonight.
Verdict: Winterthur to win at 33/20.
Accumulator fodder:
Levski Sofia, APOEL Nicosia, Omonia Nicosia.
Recommended bets:
I don’t like any multiples today, strangely – sorry guys!
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
Bulgarian A PFG:
Rakovski vs Levski Sofia (8) 0-2
Cypriot Division 1:
APOEL Nicosia vs Ermis (8) under 2.5 goals
AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia (8) 1-2
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Brno vs Sparta Prague (4) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Danish Superligaen:
OB Odense vs Midtylland (4) 1-1
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
MyPa Anjalankoski vs Haka Valkeakoski (5) 1-1
HJK Helsinki vs IFK Mariehamn (7) 2-0
Tampere United vs Jaro Pietarsaari (6) 1-1
French Ligue 2:
Chateauroux vs Evian Thonon Gaillard (6)
Grenoble Foot vs Le Mans (6)
German Bundesliga 2:
Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Hertha BSC Berlin (7)
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
KR Reykjavik vs FH Hafnarfjordur (6) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Selfoss vs Valur Reykjavik (5) 2-2
Italian Serie A:
Bologna vs Internazionale (6) under 2.5 goals
Italian Serie B:
Empoli vs Pescara (6) under 2.5 goals
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Den Bosch vs RKC Waalwijk (7)
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Brann Bergen vs Viking Stavanger (6) 2-2
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Naval de Maio vs Sporting Clube de Lisboa (6) 1-2
Romanian Liga:
Gloria Bistrita vs Targu Mures (5) 1-0
Victoria Branesti vs Astra Ploiesti (6) 1-1
Russian Premier League:
Anzhi Makhachkala vs Sibir Novosibirsk (6) 1-0
Singaporean S-League:
Albirex Niigata vs Gombak United (6) 1-1
Young Lions vs Balestier Khalsa (6) over 2.5 goals
Spanish Primera Liga:
Atletico Madrid vs Sporting Gijon (6) over 2.5 goals
Swedish Superettan:
Hammarby vs Jonkopings Sodra (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Brage vs Vasby United (7)
Trollhattan vs Syrianska Sodertalje (6) draw no bet
Swiss Challenge League:
Winterthur vs Aarau (6)
Turkish Super Lig:
Antalyaspor vs Trabzonspor (6) 0-1
Ukrainian Premier League:
Karpaty Lviv vs Volyn Lutsk (7) 2-1
Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk vs Metalurg Donetsk (6) 1-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!