Lanus vs Colon de Santa Fe
FreeToday’s featured game is the Primera Division encounter between Lanus and Colon de Santa Fe. Hosts Lanus aren’t playing as well as we know they’re capable of in this campaign with just four wins from fourteen games. This paltry amount partially explains just why Lanus are twelfth in the Primera Division table instead of being in the top six, where they’re capable of being. Visitors Colon de Santa Fe are playing well and find themselves in third place in the table, just four points off top spot.
The most most predominant reasoning that I can attribute to Lanus’ downfall is their lack of goals scored. Only four sides have scored less goals than they have this season and three of those are in the bottom four places, which needless to say isn’t a good sign. They’ve won a poor two home games out of seven whilst losing a surprising four games on that run. No side has lost more home games than Lanus this season and only a handful can match them. Their most embarassing defeat was the 3-0 humiliation inflicted by newcomers Chacarita Juniors in their last home game. Lanus have only scored one goal in their last three games which simply isn’t good enough, particularly as they’re hosting one of the most in-form signs in Argentina at the moment.
Visitors Colon de Santa Fe are the highest goalscoring side in the Primera Division. They’ve only been beaten once on the road this season but have tended to draw more games than they’ve won. I think it’s fair to classify Colon de Santa Fe as one of the better sides in Argentinian football nowadays and their performances over the past twelve-eighteen months illustrates that perfectly.
These two sides are quite well-matched despite the misleading league table and I expect both sides to go all out for this game. This game doesn’t have all the hallmarks of an over 2.5 goals bet as hosts Lanus aren’t scoring many goals although visitors Colon de Santa Fe are. However, before you dismiss the bet entirely, consider this; the last nine encounters between these two sides on either ground have gone over 2.5 goals and both sides are good enough to maintain this record. Give it some thought!
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Estudiantes De La Plata vs Tigre – -1.75 handicap at 5/4.
Although entering this game on the back of two straight defeats, you have to feel that title challengers Estudiantes De La Plata will rediscover their form against arguably the worst side in the Primera Division. Estudiantes are currently six points behind league leaders Banfield and need to keep up the pressure on them to have any chance of winning the title as there’s just four games remaining for the hosts to do so. Fortunately, all of the statistics point to an Estudiantes win with the hosts having already won five out of six home games this season. They have scored an average of two goals per game whereas they only concede one goal every two games at home. Estudiantes are an excellent footballing side on their day and although that hasn’t been happening as much as it should have lately, they’ve got all the requirements that they need to do so tonight.
Visitors Tigre have really struggled this season, particularly away from home. They’re currently bottom of the Primera Division and have lost six out of their seven away games this season, conceding nearly three goals per game on average. Despite having won their last game to give them a bit of momentum, Tigre remain one of the worst sides in the division and their three consecutive defeats prior to that victory will still be in their minds. A win against a mediocre Godoy Cruz de Mendoza has done little to change my mind on how lowly I consider Tigre to be and I thoroughly expect a well-established and talented Estudiantes to take them apart tonight.
Verdict: Estudiantes De La Plata to win with a -1.75 goal handicap at 5/4.
Lierse SK vs Tubize – under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
The Tweede Klasse’s most supported side Lierse tonight entertain Tweede Klasse newcomers Tubize following relegation from the Eerste Klasse. The hosts have been in excellent form overall so far this year with seven wins, five draws, and just one defeat in thirteen games. They’ve won four out of six home games, drawing the other two games, and average scoring over three goals per game at home. That statistic may alarm you a little considering that I’m taking under 2.5 goals on this game but you do have to consider the impact of their recent form (defeat at Turnhout last match and a draw at KVSK United the game before) and also the solid defence of Tubize.
Visitors Tubize have had a very mixed entrance to life in Tweede Klasse with five wins, four draws, and four defeats in thirteen games. Tubize have lost three of their seven away games but have never drawn on the road, winning the other four games. Even more remarkably, Tubize have only won once at home this year, drawing four times and losing once. Tubize are notorious for their compact style of football, hence the reason that they’ve only lost one game of their last five. Tubize prefer to draw games than to win or lose them, seemingly, and I can see a similar tactic being employed for the difficult trip to Lierse.
In my opinion, Lierse will win this game. However, there’s little quality difference between these two sides so I feel a raucous crowd and powerful level of home form should be just enough to see Lierse steal a win off Tubize without conceding a goal. Even as a worst-case scenario I can’t see either side scoring more than a goal in this game!
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Montana vs Pirin Blagoevgrad – home win at 7/5.
This should be a tough game for Montana as they’re facing a side that they’re arguably going to end up fighting with at the end of the A PFG season to stay in the division. Montana’s home form hasn’t been particularly conclusive with two wins, two draws, and two defeats thus far. However, one thing that Montana have done very well is made themselves hard to beat, losing just three of their twelve games this season. Montana have played some good football of late and are unbeaten in their last three games, winning their last two games consecutively.
Visitors Pirin Blagoevgrad are capable of going toe-to-toe with Montana but have been atrocious on the road this year with three defeats, one draw, and just one victory in five away games. They’ve scored a paltry three goals on this run but have conceded eight. Pirin Blagoevgrad have learned over the years that they must make the most of their home form, which is predominantly why they manage to stay in the division. Pirin Blagoevgrad have a lot of problems scoring goals, however, and that’s applicable for both home and away games. With their medicore attack coming up against a resolute Montana defence, it’s hard to see the visitors scoring a goal today.
This game should be a low-scoring affair between two average sides but Montana have enough momentum and determination to get a goal here, which really should win the game given Pirin Blagoevgrad’s problems scoring goals.
Verdict: Montana victory at 7/5.
NK Zagreb vs Zadar – under 2.5 goals at 6/5.
I have to admit to being somewhat astounded by how strongly the odds favour NK Zagreb to win this game. Don’t get me wrong – I do think that they’ll win the game – I just didn’t think I’d ever see the bookies give 8/11 on a win for a side that has a similar record to the side that they’re facing. Admittedly, NK Zagreb are a lot more capable than Zadar but they’re rarely shown in this season. NK Zagreb are the second worst home side in the Prva Liga with just two wins in six games, losing the other four. The main reasoning behind that is their lack of goals scored, something that is beginning to prove a real nuisance for them. Despite two wins in their past four games, NK Zagreb are yet to break into their stride so this bet does take on a more “risky” mantle but I still feel the chances of success are good.
Visitors Zadar are ironically the second worst side on the road in the Prva Liga, matching up to NK Zagreb’s tag of being the second worst home side in the division. They’ve lost five out of six away games and have scored a meager four goals in those games. Zadar have learned from experience that they need to make their home games count so that’s what they’ve done. Zadar tend to approach away games as if they’ve already lost and to basically limit the damage caused. Zadar are relatively big conceders on the road but a goal-shy NK Zagreb shouldn’t be capable of putting many past them, particularly given their topsy-turvy form of late.
Overall, two average/poor sides are competing in this game and I expect it to show in a very tense, low-scoring affair where a point is valuable to both sides. Either side is capable of winning the game but I don’t see either side scoring many goals, if indeed any.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 6/5.
Korona Kielce vs Zaglebie Lubin – home win at 5/4.
This is a risky call considering that Korona Kielce are without a win in their last five games, losing four in a row before drawing their last game away to Lechia Gdansk. Korona Kielce are the biggest conceders in the Ekstraklasa at present but I’m happy to partially overlook that due to their impressive goalscoring record, particularly at home where only Ruch Chorzow and Legia Warsaw have outscored them. Korona Kielce know that their home games are the ones that will count in their battle against relegation and have only lost three of their seven games at home this year. Whereas that’s not a great record, their goalscoring record frankly is great and they’ve got a lot of respect from myself for going down with such a fight. I’m hoping that the international break has given Korona Kielce a break and time to regroup. They are only missing defender Nikola Milajlovic, who serves out the final game of his ban after stupidly slapping a Wisla Krakow player, so Korona Kielce are more than capable of remaining potent for this game.
Only Cracovia Krakow have scored less goals than Zaglebie Lubin this year, which is why they’re battling against relegation and will most likely be doing so for the remainder of the season. Despite two straight wins entering this game, the international break will have broken up their momentum somewhat. Their away form is poor with four defeats in seven games, drawing once, and winning twice. Zaglebie Lubin can’t even average a goal scored per game at home, let alone away from home. Only Polonia Warsaw have conceded more goals on the road than Zaglebie Lubin, which has to be concerning for them as they’re facing one of the biggest goalscoring sides at home in the Ekstraklasa tonight. To top that, Zaglebie Lubin are missing Pawlowski, Bartczak, Sretenovic, Kedziora, Kowbel, and most importantly – Kocot. This is quite a hefty injury list for an already weak squad and the missing Przemyslaw Kocot will be a big loss for them in this game. Lastly, the decision of manager Smuda to become manager of Poland will have surely had an affect on the players even though Smuda is only due to take over this position in mid-December.
Korona Kielce have scored five goals in their last three games so they’re definitely capable of doing enough to win this game. Their Real Madrid-esque policy of “we’ll score more than you” appears to be flawed in that they tend to concede a hell of a lot of goals. However, visitors Zaglebie Lubin have a poor goalscoring record both home and away so I do feel that Korona Kielce have enough to win this game.
Verdict: Korona Kielce victory at 5/4.
Legia Warsaw vs Polonia Warsaw -1.75 handicap at 11/10.
We all know that Legia Warsaw are one of the best sides in Poland. To top that, Legia Warsaw are the second best home side in the Ekstraklasa so far this year with six wins and one draw in seven home games. They average over two goals scored per game and atypically rarely concede goals, averaging just one conceded every 3.5 games at home. Legia Warsaw’s away form has been a bit of a problem this year but again, they rarely concede when on the road too. The claim that Legia Warsaw are “boring” largely stems from this fact, and I certainly can’t oppose those claims either! Legia Warsaw have won their last three games consecutively and winning is in their nature so they’ve got everything they need to win this game by a couple of goals at least.
Polonia Warsaw are following up one of their best Ekstraklasa seasons to date with one of the worst they’ve had for some time. They’ve won just three games out of their thirteen this year and find themselves second from bottom due to the fact that only Korona Kielce have conceded more goals than they have. Polonia Warsaw have lost five out of seven away games this season, drawing once and winning once. They average conceding two goals per away game and also carry no momentum into this game with four defeats in their last five games.
Everything here points to a home win and everything points to the handicap’s success too. Generally, in accordance with Sod’s Law, this means it will fail but logic and statistics all point to a successful bet here, particularly as Legia welcome back strikers Mieciel and Chinyama.
Verdict: Legia Warsaw victory with a -1.75 handicap at 11/10.
Rapid Bucharest vs Gaz Metan Medias -1.75 handicap at 11/10.
I think it’s fair to say that Rapid Bucharest have been one of the best sides in Romania this year, if not the best! Their football has been outstanding and only Vaslui have won more league games than Rapid Bucharest have. Rapid Bucharest average scoring over two goals per game currently, which is light years ahead of any other side in the Liga. Rapid Bucharest have a tendency to concede goals but they are more reliable at preventing such when playing at home, naturally. The hosts actually average nearly three goals per game at home, which is the fundamental point behind my bet tonight. Rapid Bucharest’s recent form hasn’t been as convincing so this bet does have an element of risk but their overall abilty should shine through here.
Visitors Gaz Metan Medias have impressed me this year by being hard to beat for just about any opponent that they face. They’ve only lost twice at home and twice away from home this year, which is good for a side that I consider to be average at best. They’re unbeaten in five league games now, drawing four and winning once. However, the games that Gaz Metan Medias lose tend to be against the big sides. Three of their four defeats this season have come against giants Steaua Bucharest, CFR Cluj, and in-form Vaslui. Their other defeat was a one-off defeat against newly-promoted Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt which I’m prepared to write off but this game against Rapid Bucharest should really test their resolve.
Although Gaz Metan Medias don’t tend to concede many goals, Rapid Bucharest love to score goals and I rate their attack much higher than I rate Gaz Metan Medias’ defence.
Verdict: Rapid Bucharest victory with a -1.75 handicap at 11/10.
Prestatyn Town vs Bala Town – home win at 4/5.
Prestatyn Town are without a win in their last three games but have the perfect opportunity to get back to winning games as they take on a Bala Town side that are finally beginning to taste the bittersweet life of the Welsh Premier League. Despite their winless run, Prestatyn Town are notoriously strong at home and are one of three sides in the Premier League yet to lose at home along with Neath Athletic and The New Saints. Prestatyn Town have won three of their five home games and have drawn the other two games. Prestatyn Town are a difficult side to play against, something they proved on various levels last year and look to be set on being difficult to beat this year too.
Bala Town enjoyed a fairytale start to life in the Premier League but have taken a turn for the worse since then. Without a win in their last five games, Bala Town’s goal-shy antics has left them with three defeats and two draws entering this game. Only Porthmadog and Newi Cefn Druids have scored less goals than Bala Town this year and they’ve both in the bottom three of the table. Bala Town’s strength is not conceding many goals but the trip to Prestatyn often yields goals for the home side. Bala Town have lost three of their five away games, drawing once and winning just once. They’ve managed to score just two goals on this run and don’t look likely to change that record tonight with no momentum to break it up.
Although both of these sides are devoid of a win in recent times, you have to feel that Prestatyn Town have enough experience and home advantage to win this game tonight.
Verdict: Prestatyn Town to win at 4/5.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Estudiantes De La Plata vs Tigre (8) -1.75 handicap
Lanus vs Colon de Santa Fe (5) over 2.5 goals, draw no bet
Australian A-League:
Adelaide United vs Gold Coast United (5) 1-0
Austrian Liga 1:
First Vienna vs Austria Vienna II (6) over 2.5 goals
Dornbirn vs Salzburg II (5)
Lustenau vs Hartberg (6)
Admira Wacker vs Austria Lustenau (5)
St.Polten vs SCR Altach (6)
Belgian Tweede Klasse:
Lierse SK vs Tubize (7) under 2.5 goals
Bulgarian A PFG:
Montana vs Pirin Blagoevgrad (6) under 2.5 goals
Croatian Prva Liga:
NK Zagreb vs Zadar (6) under 2.5 goals
English Championship:
Swansea City vs Derby County (8)
English League One:
Southend United vs Milton Keynes Dons (6)
French Ligue 1:
Olympique de Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain (7) 1-0
German Bundesliga 2:
Rot-Weiss Ahlen vs Paderborn (6)
Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Energie Cottbus (6) over 2.5 goals
Arminia Bielefeld vs 1860 Munich (8)
Greek B Ethniki:
Panserraikos vs Ethnikos Piraeus (7)
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Budapest Honved vs Debreceni VSC (7) 1-2
Italian Serie B:
Vicenza vs Frosinone (7)
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Excelsior vs De Graafschap (6)
AGOVV Appeldoorn vs Stormvogels Telstar (8)
Veendam vs RBC Roosendaal (5)
Den Bosch vs Zwolle (7)
Eindhoven vs Omniworld (6)
Volendam vs Helmond Sport (6) over 2.5 goals
Fortuna Sittard vs Top Oss (5)
Go Ahead Eagles vs MVV Maastricht (8) over 2.5 goals
Haarlem vs Dordrecht ’90 (7)
Cambuur Leeuwarden vs Emmen (8)
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Korona Kielce vs Zaglebie Lubin (6) 1-0
Polonia Bytom vs Jagiellonia Bialystok (6) 1-0
Legia Warsaw vs Polonia Warsaw (8) -1.75 handicap
Romanian Liga:
Unirea Alba Iulia vs Otelul Galati (6) 1-1
Rapid Bucharest vs Gaz Metan Medias (8) -1.75 handicap
Welsh Premier League:
Haverfordwest County vs Llanelli (7) 1-2
Prestatyn Town vs Bala Town (7) 2-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!