Lecce vs Juventus
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Serie A encounter between Lecce and Juventus. Both sides have improved their respective games lately so I expect a good game, especially as both sides need points for varying reasons.
Hosts Lecce were dead and buried at Christmas but have battled their way out of the relegation zone thanks to some good displays in 2011. They’ve played with a tremendous spirit, a spirit that you used to associate with Lecce when they were last in Serie A and it’s pleasing to see them back in business. The turning point was their derby defeat against Bari, no doubt inspired due to their fans’ fury at their display. Since then, Lecce have scored in seven consecutive games, winning twice along the way, holding Fiorentina and AC Milan respectively to draws, and scaring the shit out of Catania and Palermo respectively in intense games so it’s reasonable to expect a strong Lecce display tonight. They do have their notable absences – Uruguayan duo Olivera and Giacomazzi in midfield in particular – but they’ve got enough momentum and first-team players available to give Juventus a really tough game today and thus that’s what I expect to happen.
However, with Juventus bucking up their ideas lately and starting to play better, it’ll be interesting to see how they approach this game. It’s a given that Lecce will not give them any time on the ball because that’s Lecce’s style. However, Juventus have been very smart lately from a tactics perspective so I wonder if we’ll see a few surprises in the starting line-up. Nonetheless, Juventus should be motivated for this game, which makes a refreshing change! Juventus have some fantastic attacking players in their arsenal so it stands to reason that they tend to win when they play well, hence back-to-back wins at Cagliari and at home to Internazionale, which I personally view as two very difficult games. Morale is rising and Juventus are starting to regain some swagger so take them seriously here. However, Juventus’ defensive record remains poor with just one clean sheet in in their last five games and I don’t think they’re playing well enough currently to start keeping clean sheets, especially against a spirited Lecce side, so I think we’ll see at least one goal for the hosts here.
I’m not going to enter the 1×2 market here, although Juventus should edge it given Lecce’s absentees and Juve’s recent good run. However, backing both teams to score in this game at 5/6 really appeals to me, especially as both sides are playing some of the better football that they’ve played this season and also because both sides really need the points. Don’t be surprised to see cards here too – Lecce can be a hostile host and Juventus have crazy fuckers like Chiellini to get the game going from a physical perspective!
Team news – Lecce miss Giuliatto, Giacomazzi, Olivera, and Jeda whereas Juventus miss Quagliarella and Traore.
Verdict: Both teams to score at 5/6.
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Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
AA Gent vs Standard de Liege – home win at evens.
This bet entirely stems from the absence of Liege playmaker Defour here. He’s a long-term absentee for Liege but they really miss him both as a captain and a playmaker in their team when they face a good side and that’s what they’re up against today. Generally, they have enough to overcome average or poor Eerste Klasse sides, even without him, but when they face a good side nowadays, they need all three of their “Holy Trinity” available and unfortunately, they’re missing the most important one. The other two – Witsel and Tchite – are both available so Liege won’t lie down here. However, they’re susceptible defensively at the best of times and even lost at home to a very under-strength Racing Genk last match, losing 0-2. Liege can keep the ball well enough but putting it in the net and keeping other sides out are two continual problems for the visitors and thus I think they’ll struggle today. Gent are unbeaten this year, winning five times and drawing twice so momentum favours them here. They’re not secure at the back either but they’re a very potent side that generally manages to score goals from anywhere and therefore they stand a very good chance of winning this game. What I like about Gent’s attack is the sheer variety available to them with Coulibaly bringing strength, Ljubljankic bringing pace, Arbeitman bringing skill, and both De Smet and El Ghanassy bringing energy. Dury has so many options to utilise against Liege and Liege are so vulnerable at the back that I cannot help but envision a home win in this game at decent odds.
Team news – Standard de Liege miss Defour.
Verdict: AA Gent to win at evens.
Westerlo vs Anderlecht – away win at 7/10.
My initial call for this game was over 2.5 goals at evens but I backed away from it for varying reasons.
However, I do think that backing Anderlecht here has value, even at 7/10. True, they were demolished 0-3 at the Vanden Stock by Ajax a few days ago in the UEFA Europa League but is it really that much of a surprise? The scoreline surprised me a little, I have admit, as Ajax aren’t the best in front of goal against decent sides. However, Ajax are undoubtedly the better of the two sides so I don’t see that defeat having a cataclysmic effect on Anderlecht ahead of this game.
Anderlecht did pick up a few injuries in that game, the most notable of which is Legear, who misses this game. Anderlecht have a few doubts like Lukaku and Gillet but I expect both to make it for this game. Most importantly, however, are the absentees of Westerlo. Now, Westerlo can be a funny side to face, especially when
Westerlo are the away team. However, I even doubt the unpredictability factor of Westerlo today as they miss two important defenders – Corstjens and Farssi – and they’re also missing their best striker Paulo Henrique today so Westerlo really should be rendered rather useless here. Westerlo don’t score many at home as they tend to rely on counter-attacks but I rate their chances of scoring even less now that Henrique is out. They must concede here with two integral defenders absent and with the above in mind, Anderlecht should be worth the win at 7/10 although I’d leave it if the odds drop, which they probably will.
Team news – Westerlo miss Corstjens, Liliu, Farssi, and Paulo Henrique whereas Anderlecht miss Legear and Deschacht whilst having doubts over Gillet, Lukaku, and Kouyate.
Verdict: Anderlecht to win at 7/10.
Union San Felipe vs Colo Colo – home win with draw no bet at 11/8.
It’s enough that Colo Colo have lost their last two visits to arising Union San Felipe but with the way they’re currently playing, I’d back anyone against them. They’ve shipped a horrendous fourteen goals in four games now despite facing some very weak opponents and although Colo Colo still bring a potent goal threat to their games, they simply cannot defend and are being embarrassed on a frequent basis as a result. They enter this game on tbe back of a 5-2 drubbing in Paraguay against Cerro Porteno so their morale is poor as it is but Union San Felipe is not an easy side to face at any given point so this looks to be a really difficult away game for Colo Colo. Union San Felipe are struggling to score due to the departures of Argentinian duo Gonzalez and Vildozo back in December but they’re still a hard side to face and they’ll be additionally motivated here as they know their opponent is really struggling and also because they’re facing one of Chile’s biggest clubs. This game oozes over 2.5 goals to me but the value has to be in backing a home win with draw no bet cover at generous odds of 11/8 as Colo Colo look capable of losing against anyone at present.
Verdict: Union San Felipe to win with raw no bet at 11/8.
Universidad de Chile vs Union Espanola – home win at 4/5.
I really like the look of this game. It means a lot to Universidad de Chile because their opponents today are the side responsible for Universidad facing a rare season ahead without continental football as Union Espanola beat them over two legs. I can’t remember the last time that “U” didn’t reach the continental competition and they’re still seething about it now.
As irony would have it, the fact that they’re not in continental competition actually plays to their advantage here. Universidad haven’t played a game since last weekend so they’ve had a nice rest whereas Union Espanola have been busy locking horns with reigning Primera A champions Universidad Catolica in the Copa Libertadores, drawing 2-2 at home just a few days ago. Union Espanola’s starting eleven is strong but their strength in depth is weak as they’re not a giant in Chile, although the future could see them become one if they continue to impressively keep hold of their stars. However, they’ve got a very tough away game against a strong Universidad side here so I really doubt their chances tonight.
The departure of battling midfield Iturra appears to have done Universidad more good than bad, bizarrely, and the hosts have started the current campaign well with two wins and one draw from three games, scoring an impressive eight goals along the way. Canales and Puch have done a lot of the damage but Universidad can score goals from anywhere so I really fancy their chances here, although it’s undeniable that they will miss Uruguayan centre-back Victorino this season, who left to join Cruzeiro a couple of weeks ago.
Union Espanola have only beaten Universidad twice in eleven consecutive head-to-head meetings and with their clear statement of intent that they’ll be prioritising their Copa Libertadores campaign over their domestic campaign, I don’t see them getting a result against one of Chile’s finest tonight. They’re not a side to be taken lightly but they should be somewhat tired here. They’re also missing Argentinian striker Jaime through injury, which is a blow, and I think they’ll be a victim of Universidad’s revenge tonight, which is decently priced at 4/5.
Team news – Union Espanola miss Sebastian Jaime and have doubts over Rafael Olarra.
Verdict: Universidad de Chile to win at 4/5.
Deportes Quindio vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
I was all set for backing Deportes Quindio to win this game until I saw the odds. They’ve made a great start to the current campaign and are high in morale but they’re just not worth 7/10 against a side that’s better than they are! The reason I was opposing Atletico Junior was because of the severe altitude that they were at just a few days ago during their 1-2 victory at Leon de Huanuco in Peru and any jump between low and high altitude tends to have a dramatic affect on teams, which is why I daresay the odds on a Quindio win are so short here – either Junior will be resting players or they’ll be fielding tired players. Either way, I think a 1X game is on the cards here. The value looks to be in under 2.5 goals to me, though. Junior realised that they weren’t good enough in defence in the last campaign so they took the logical step by signing half of Independiente Medellin’s defence and as a result, Junior potentially have the best defence in Colombia and you can rest assured that they’ll be sitting back in this game. The problem for Quindio is that they’re not great goalscorers; they take the odd chance and try to sit on their leads so if they edge in front – which they probably will at somepoint – then they should sit back and hold it. Primera A is not a particularly goal-filled division in general and I think under 2.5 goals is priced quite generously here at 4/5, given that Junior will be too tired to do more than sit back and given that the hosts aren’t massively potent. Therefore, my call is under 2.5 goals for this game.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Apollon Limassol vs Ermis -home win with -1.5 handicap at 11/10.
This is a fairly risky call as Apollon miss most of their defence but to be honest, they’ve played so well lately that I’m not concerned, which is perhaps a tad dangerous. Nonetheless, I’m not without foundation in my belief as Apollon’s success of late has come from scoring goals rather than playing a shrewd and calculating game. It took them a long time to start their season properly but they eventually have done so and are a top five side when they play like this so I really fancy their chances here, especially on the back of a 2-3 derby victory at AEL Limassol. The only time to puncture Apollon’s recent excellent run was a strong APOEL Nicosia side, who beat them 2-1 – Apollon have won the other five games that they’ve played during that six game spell! Apollon have conceded in most of those games and they may do so here but they’re in tremendous form and are scoring goals for fun so they have to be given a chance here, in my view. Ermis don’t like to be beaten easily but the problem is that they tend to be beaten easily away from home as their rigid shape doesn’t work as well on foreign soil. Ermis are not a naturally gifted side in front of goal – their strength is in defence. However, I envision them conceding early in this game and if that happens and the game becomes open then Apollon should easily be able to clear the handicap, hence my selection today.
Team news – Apollon Limassol miss Gonzalez, Nunez, Merkis, and Morris.
Verdict: Apollon Limassol to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 11/10.
Montpellier HSC vs LOSC Lille – away win at 5/4.
Only OGC Nice and Arles have scored less Ligue 1 goals than Montpellier HSC this season so it doesn’t take a genius to work out that Montpellier’s success hinges on their defence. They’ve only lost three times at home this season due to their strong defence but they’ve won less than half due to not scoring enough goals so there’s a bit of a catch twenty-two scenario here. The main problem I’ve encountered with Montpellier HSC is that when they’re out of form, they don’t win games. That might sound like a rather obvious statement but what I mean is that they find it very hard to emerge from a bad spell because they don’t score goals. A good side in bad form can still edge wins with bad displays by scoring goals but Montpellier just don’t have that option and with back-to-back games without a win, I sense they’re on a slight downward spiral currently, especially after a goalless draw with rock bottom Arles last match. Montpellier have the additional issues of missing defender Bocaly for this game and two attackers – Kabze and leading goalscorer Giroud – so I certainly don’t rate their chances here.
I’m a little concerned that Lille may be tired from their excellent game with PSV Eindhoven earlier this week in the UEFA Europa League, which ended 2-2. However, that aside, they’re realistically the only one of these two sides who will score in this game and that makes them a decent bet, in my eyes. The likes of Hazard, Gervinho, and Sow have proven themselves time and time again this season and Lille look deadly as a result. Lille aren’t a particularly good away side so do approach with caution but they’ve absolutely got the firepower to edge this game today so the away win appeals to me here.
Team news – Montpellier HSC miss Giroud, Kabze, and Bocaly whereas LOSC Lille miss Emerson.
Verdict: LOSC Lille to win at 5/4.
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Lazio vs Bari – home win to nil at 21/20.
There’s reportedly unrest in the Lazio camp but I’m not as concerned with that as I possibly should be, knowing Italian football. For me, Lazio have been largely reliable this season in all areas of the pitch although the bizarre absence of Zarate (from a goalscoring perspective) has left me a little puzzled. Nonetheless, Lazio remain good enough to win games like this, even without the talented Argentinian in good form. Lazio have gone four games unbeaten now, keeping three clean sheets along the way and having won 0-2 at Brescia last match so they bring good momentum into this game. Lazio have already notched up eight wins in thirteen home games in Serie A this season and average scoring over 1.5 goals per home game so I fancy their chances here today.
Bari’s problem isn’t defending, however – it’s goalscoring. They had one of the best defences in Serie A last season and considering where they are in the league table, I still don’t think that concede as many as most bottom clubs do because their defence is still decent. Despite the signing of Okaka on loan from AS Roma and Huseklepp from Brann Bergen, Bari still struggle to find the net and that’s causing them so many problems and will probably result in them being relegated soon enough. They’ve lost nine out of twelve on the road this season and no Serie A side has scored less away goals than they have, hence my point, so I don’t think they’ll score against a solid Lazio side today.
My biggest concern for this one wasn’t the absent Zarate but the presence of Radu at the back. Without him, Lazio look lost in defence but happily, the Romanian defender is available so a clean sheet isn’t an unfair thing to expect from Lazio today. Lazio should have enough to win this game at the same time with the above in mind so my call is Lazio to win without conceding at 21/20.
Team news – Lazio miss Mauri and Rocchi.
Verdict: Lazio to win to nil at 21/20.
Fiorentina vs Sampdoria – home win at 4/5.
I’ve been really impressed with the Viola in their last four games as they’ve strung together some convincing displays and were unlucky to encounter a determined Internazionale last match, which ultimately led to them losing 1-2. However, a 2-4 win at a difficutl Palermo side the match before was impressive and Fiorentina’s general composure and ability to create chances seems to have increased dramatically, as has their confidence, so I’m going to give them their chance here. The signing of Swiss international Behrami was a good move as he lends Fiorentina some much needed pace and with Montolivo pulling the strings for Gilardino to score, this Fiorentina side is finally starting to look like their old selves, even without their long-term absentees. Considering that Fiorentina have had a poor season by their standards, I still find it impressive that they’ve managed to win seven out of twelve home games so they’re certainly worthy of your respect now that they’re playing well again.
In addition to the above, Sampdoria have looked set for a long and tiring second half of their Serie A campaign following the departures of strikers Pazzini and Cassano. They’ve brought in Macheda on loan from Manchester United, experienced striker Maccarone from Palermo, and they’ve signed Biabiany from Internazionale but that’s nothing compared to what they’ve lost and Sampdoria’s problem has long been scoring goals, hence their predicament. As a unit, Sampdoria are still hard to break down and it may take Fiorentina some time to do so today. However, Sampdoria have scored in just one out of their last seven Serie A games and that tends to mean that if they concede, then they lose, which again, is a massive problem. They lost the derby of Genoa last match against…well, Genoa, unsurprisingly! Morale has surely lessened even moreso since then for obvious reasons and given that Sampdoria have not only lost four out of their last five games but have also lost their last five away games in Serie A without scoring a single goal, I have to favour the hosts here.
Given Fiorentina’s excellent form of late and the sheer impotence of Samdporia, I can’t help but feel that the home win at 4/5 looks very tempting indeed.
Team news – Fiorentina miss Frey, Jovetic, Kroldrup, and Santana.
Verdict: Fiorentina to win at 4/5.
ADO Den Haag vs Feyenoord Rotterdam – home win at evens.
I have a morbid fear about this tip because ADO are over-achieving and Feyenoord’s displays lately have been better than their results suggest but for as long as ADO are at evens or above, I’ll give them the edge here.
ADO Den Haag have won seven out of eleven home games in the Eredivisie this season, which is quite remarkable and they deserve all the plaudits that they’re receiving for doing so. Verhoek has looked inspired this season, as has fellow attacker Bulykin, and they’re basically the predominant reason behind ADO’s success. They’ve won four consecutive games since the Eredivisie started after the winter break, scoring twelve times along the way, thus reinforcing their excellent record of scoring an average of two goals per home game. They’ve even won at the Phillips Stadion against PSV Eindhoven during that time so I can’t really fault ADO at the moment, especially with a full squad available to them here.
Visitors Feyenoord Rotterdam are still battling against the drop and although it’s their own fault that they’re in the current mess that they’re in, I can’t help but feel sorry for them. They work so hard in each game and they have some excellent youngsters coming through but a lack of experience in the team is costing them massively, most notably away from home, where they’re yet to win a game this season despite attempting to twelve times. Their record on the road says it all, really – twelve away games, four draws, eight losses, eight goals scored, thirty conceded. Their home record demonstrates how good they can be with the required support but their lack of support and experience tends to lead to them suffering badly away from home which is why I think they’ll lose today.
If you do watch this game then don’t be surprised if Feyenoord score a goal or two here. Their record is quite harsh on them, given their enthusiastic displays. However, despite some presentable signings in the January transfer window, they’ve still got a lot of issues and I think they’ll lose this game as a result.
Team news – ADO Den Haag miss Koksal whereas Feyenoord Rotterdam miss Tomasson, Cisse, Schenkeveld, Fernandez, Schaken, and Auassar.
Verdict: ADO Den Haag to win at evens.
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs VVV Venlo – home win with -2.5 handicap at 4/5.
I can’t explain this any more than the Eredivisie table does. There’s simply a massive quality gap between these two sides and it often shows when they meet either via display, scoreline, or both. Whenever VVV have encountered a good side away from home this season they’ve lost by three goals or more and now that Ajax are firing on all cylinders under de Boer and now that they’ve El Hamdaoui getting back to his best, I have to give Ajax a shout to cover the handicap here, especially on the back of a convincing mid-week win in Belgium against Anderlecht in the UEFA Europa League.
Team news – AFC Ajax Amsterdam miss Vermeer, Lodeiro, Tainio, and Bruno Silva whereas VVV Venlo have doubts over Boymans.
Verdict: AFC Ajax Amsterdam to beat the -2.5 goal handicap at 4/5.
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Vitesse Arnhem vs De Graafschap – home win at 4/5.
Quality-wise, Vitesse are some distance ahead of De Graafschap, in my view. Ferrer’s team are rapidly becoming a very hard side to beat as Twente Enschede found out last match but the other side of the coin is that Vitesse are still struggling to convert their chances, which is largely due to Norwegian striker Pedersen’s injury and Ivorian striker Wilfried yet to make his debut. Vitesse create the necessary chances to win games but aren’t scoring them so it’s important to only back them against only selective opponents i.e. De Graafschap. The visitors tend to concede heavily away from home and rarely score so they look an ideal opponent for Vitesse to register a much-needed win against. De Graafschap miss star striker Popeon but most important of all is the knowledge that they miss two important defenders in Saejis and Nalbantoglu for this game. The above gives Vitesse a very good chance of winning this game if they take their chances and although the reliance on playmakers Stevanovic and Aissati is weightier than normal today, I think they’ve got a better chance of winning this game than the odds suggest, hence my selection today.
Team news – Vitesse Arnhem miss Kalogu and Pedersen whilst having doubts over Wilfried whereas De Graafschap miss Poepon, El Hassnaoui, Nalbantoglu, and Saejis.
Verdict: Vitesse Arnhem to win at 4/5.
Olimpia Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno – home win with -1.5 handicap at 11/10.
It’s quite cheeky to state that the Asuncion clubs are the best in Paraguay because the vast majority of the Division Profesional play in Asuncion. However, there are four teams that dominate this league and Olimpia Asuncion are one of them along with Guarani Asuncion, Nacional Asuncion, and Cerro Porteno respectively. Out of all of the “big four”, it’s Olimpia who have started the strongest, scoring twelve goals in four games and winning all of them as a result. They’re clearly a little peeved at having missed out on continental football, hence their promising start whilst rivals Cerro Porteno and Guarani Asuncion compete in the Copa Libertadores. Olimpia Asuncion have the players and the momentum to win this game comfortably and although Luqueno are scoring goals at the moment, they’re also conceding a lot and they’re facing a much better side than they are. Therefore, I have to consider the home win with -1.5 handicap at 11/10 as good value tonight.
Verdict: Olimpia Asuncion to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 11/10.
Leon de Huanuco vs Cobresol – under 2.5 goals at evens.
Cobresol will struggle to stay in the Primera Division due to a lack of quality but despite Leon de Huanuco’s altitude advantage, they demonstrated mid-week against Atletico Junior Barranquilla that goalscoring is going to be a real issue for them this season. They sold too many important players over the break, especially in attack, and now look a shadow of the side that they were. It took a wonder goal from Carlos Elias for Leon de Huanuco to score against Atletico Junior Barranquilla mid-week and although I don’t rate newly-promoted Cobresol as being anywhere near as good as the Colombian giants, they’re still in their honeymoon period in the Primera Division and will work very hard in this game to prevent defeat. I wouldn’t dream of entering the 1×2 market here, based on what we saw from Leon de Huanuco mid-week, but under 2.5 goals appears generously priced with the above in mind and a lack of goalscorers in each side.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Sporting Braga vs Pacos de Ferreira – both teams to score at evens.
It’s the same old scenario with Braga! I don’t think I’ve tipped games involving anyone else more than Braga lately and their continued issues mean that I’ll continue tipping in their games! Effectively, Braga haven’t recovered from their transfer losses in January and they’re missing a truckload of important players for this game in important positions, hence them conceding a lot of goals lately and playing very unconvincingly. Visitors Pacos de Ferreira aren’t as good as their hosts but you wouldn’t know that from their recent form. The only side to beat them since the end of November was Porto so that should give you an idea of how well Pacos de Ferreira are playing. Indeed, during that run, they’ve won at both Sporting Clube de Lisboa and at today’s hosts Sporting Braga, winning 2-3 each time. Pacos de Ferreira have scored in seven out of their last eight games and their counter-attacking style balanced out with a solid defensive line is proving a nightmare to face for just about everyone in the Liga Sagres, which should be inclusive of hosts Sporting Braga tonight. Effectively, if both sides play in this game as they have done lately then backing both sides to score looks very generously priced at evens, even though Pacos de Ferreira do miss emerging striker Pizzi for this game.
Team news – Sporting Braga miss Quim, Paulao, Elderson, Vandrinho, Alan, and Paulo Cesar whereas Pacos de Ferreira miss Pizzi, Samuel, Coelho, Carlos Renan, and Jorginho.
Verdict: Both sides to score at evens.
Getafe vs Racing Santander – away win with draw no bet at 9/4.
This bet stems entirely from one man; Marcelino. He’s been re-appointed as Santander manager and since that happened, this goal-shy outfit from the north have already beaten Sevilla CF 3-2. Why? Well, this guy is the Midas of Santander – when he’s in charge, they win games. I thoroughly expect to see a much stronger Santander side for the remainder of this campaign, just as they were not long ago when they lost very few away games indeed. They finally have options in attack with Rosenberg, Nahuelpan, and Munitis having Giovanni Dos Santos for company and as such, this Santander side is finally taking shape and it’ll take a much braver man than I am to go against them here, especially as Getafe have been quite poor at home, losing four out of their last five games. Getafe are normally particularly dominant at home but they’ve gone off the boil this season so I don’t rate their chances too highly here, especially with battler Torres out of the side.
Although it’s a long shot, I think taking Santander with draw no bet at 9/4 has some value today.
Team news – Getafe miss Miguel Torres, Albin, Manu, and Arizmendi whereas Racing Santander miss Mario Fernandez, Diop, Tziolis, Serrano, and Christian.
Verdict: Racing Santander to win with draw no bet at 9/4.
Sevilla CF vs Hercules Alicante – Sevilla CF to keep a clean sheet at 13/10.
I’m a bit disappointed that Dragutinovic won’t feature in this game as he adds some much needed steel to the Sevilla defence but nonetheless, Manzano is getting his feet under the table and making Sevilla more boring defensively able, shall we say. That said, they don’t really need to be smart defensively here – they just need to exist for Hercules to not score, generally speaking. Hercules have only scored in two away games this season, one of which was their incredulous 0-2 win at the Nou Camp and the other was in a 1-1 draw with Almeria so to say that Hercules generally aren’t a threat away from home is something of an understatement. To make matters even worse for Hercules, they miss pacey Drenthe and supporting striker Haedo-Valdez, who basically does all the running that Trezeguet can no longer do, which leaves the Frenchman even more isolated in attack. Although Sevilla’s defence isn’t always particularly convincing, it’s going to take something special for Hercules to score here, in my opinion, so backing Sevilla CF to keep a clean sheet here at 13/10 looks something of a gift.
Team news – Sevilla CF miss Romaric, Dragutinovic, and Sergio Sanchez whilst having doubts over Palop whereas Hercules Alicante miss Rufete, Fritzeler, Velthuizen, Drenthe, Haedo-Valdez, and Pena.
Verdict: Sevilla CF to keep a clean sheet at 13/10.
Almeria vs Deportivo La Coruna – over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
These two sides are generally under 2.5 goals sides but times have changed; Almeria need as many points as they can get and Deportivo aren’t much different themselves. Almeria have started attacking with a lot more conviction since Oltra took over and as a result, they’ve started scoring a lot more goals, even winning games. In fact, five out of Almeria’s last seven games in all competitions have gone over 2.5 goals due to their inability to defend but also newfound confidence in attack and that shouldn’t change here. Deportivo are in a similar position although they too are far stronger at home than they are away. Three out of Deportivo’s last five games have gone over 2.5 goals, however, due to them attacking more than normal and taking their chances. Deportivo’s injury list is constantly lessening with even star striker Riki back in the fold, which is a massive boost for the northerners. Big target man Jose Sand could be in line to make his debut for Deportivo as he’s been named in the squad for this game and he’ll be a real handful for Almeria, especially with Almeria missing three important defenders today – Michel, Juanma, and Carlos Garcia respectively – not to mention midfielder Crusat. Almeria are very under-strength here and Deportivo could even sneak a sly win here. However, Oltra’s Almeria play football to score goals and although the opportunity is clearly there for Deportivo to score goals in this game, the opportunity is seemingly perpetually available to Almeria when it comes to scoring goals at home and given the importance of this game, over 2.5 goals looks the way forward to me here.
Team news – Almeria miss Albert Crusat, Michel, Carlos Garcia, and Juanma Ortiz whereas Deportivo La Coruna miss Rindaroy, Seoane, Guardado, Saul, Desmarets, Valeron, and Xisco.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Ponferradina vs Granada – away win at 11/10.
Ponferradina are rock-bottom of the Segunda Liga currently and things don’t look likely to improve in the near future with some important players absent for today’s game with Granada, most notably midfielder Ivan Perez and defender Cristian. The hosts today are yet to win a game in 2011 and enter this game on the back of three straight defeats so “demoralised” isn’t even the word to describe the Ponferradina dressing room currently. They’re not being battered in games but they’re just not scoring goals due to their fairly immobile attack and that’s a real issue for them. They’ve actually now lost three out of their last four home games and I just don’t see a way out for them with the above absences in mind.
Visitors Granada, on the other hand, look very impressive indeed. On-loan striker Geijo continues to rip defences apart with his incisive finishing and with Granada playing the best football of their campaign thus far, it’s hard to see them not doing well here. They’ve got a full squad to choose from with their only absences (listed below) being those they chose to leave behind so the ball is very much in Granada’s court. They’ve won four out of their last five games, scoring thirteen times along the way and generally have looked very convincing as a result. Confidence is high, momentum is on their side, and they’ve got one of the most natural finishers in the division – they’re very well-placed indeed to win this game, in my view!
I’m not a massive fan of backing over-achieving Granada away from home in the Segunda Liga because they will inevitably stumble at somepoine. However, odds of 11/10 on them winning at Segunda Division B-bound Ponferradina appeals to me here as the visitors should have too much for their hosts.
Team news – Ponferradina miss Redondo, Ruben Vega, Francis Suarez, Ivan Perez, and Cristian whereas Granada miss Lucena, Ruben, Granada, and Muriel.
Verdict: Granada to win at 11/10.
SC Kriens vs Servette – away win at 8/5.
SC Kriens lost Philippe, Saliu, and Matoshi during the transfer window and were thus forced to make acquisitions in the forms of Koller, Kiassumbua, and Cerda. Kriens have also had issues with number one goalkeeper Djukic, hence the signing of Kiassumbua as the future of their goalkeeper is not certain. Cerda is expected to start at full-back for Kriens with Zahnd still absent but these changes need time to be integrated into the team and thus I have my doubts over Kriens today. They’ve played a lot of friendlies, admittedly, but it’s not the same as having competitive match practice, in my view. Those losses will have disrupted Kriens in varying parts of their team so I don’t think they’ll be anywhere near as capable in the Challenge League as they were in the first-half of the current campaign for a little while to come yet.
Servette, on the other hand, needed their break to recharge their batteries and should come back raring to go. They’re still one of the best sides in the Challenge League in my eyes with Brazilian duo Eudis and De Azevedo able to tear most sides in this division apart at their leisure. Servette have looked good in their recent friendlies but have most importantly of all looked potent, which is vital as goalscoring is their business, basically. Servette are one of the top sides in this division and if they turn up today then they really should win this game, to be blunt!
In my opinion, Kriens won’t have been able to successfully integrate their new signings as of yet whereas Servette bring a talented and recharged side into this game, a side full of players that know each other well. Although it’s always hard to bet on the first game back for sides, I think Servette are priced too long with the above in mind so my call is the away win here.
Team news – SC Kriens miss Zahnd for this game.
Verdict: Servette to win at 8/5.
Besiktas JK vs Fenerbahce – away win with draw no bet at evens.
This bet works on the same principle as my tip for Dynamo Kiev mid-week. Basically, there’s no unity in the Besiktas camp currently and it’s doing them a lot of damage. There’s rumours of fighting during training and players feeling that they’re too big for the club etc. etc. The supporters have launched a campaign against the managerial style of Bernd Schuster, to which he responded something along the lines of “If you don’t like the way the team plays then don’t come to watch”, which naturally didn’t go down too well with the Besiktas fans. Besiktas have some fantastic attacking players but their defence is inept at the best of times and this side is suffering from a severe lack of confidence currently so I see them as the perfect side to bet against for the present time.
Visitors Fenerbahce have looked good lately too, which naturally helps. They do have a couple of notable absentees for this game but as they’re finally playing like a team again, I’m going to overlook that as Fenerbahce as a whole should have too much for bitter rivals Besiktas JK here. Fenerbahce have actually won five consecutive games in all competitions now, scoring ten times along the way and even beating league leaders Trabzonspor during the run. Confidence is very high in the Fenerbahce camp currently and with talented strikers such as Senturk and especially Niang in their arsenal, I can’t possibly overlook them winning this game, especially with such momentum behind them.
Istanbul derbies are often hard to call but with the above in mind, taking Fenerbahce to win with draw no bet cover at evens appeals to me here, as does over 2.5 goals at evens, although my main call remains the away win with draw no bet cover.
Team news – Fenerbahce miss Dia and Emere.
Verdict: Fenerbahce to win with draw no bet at evens.
Zulia vs Deportivo Petare – away win at 6/4.
Had it not been for Luis Curiel’s immense goalkeeping display last match then Zulia could have lost by a lot more goals. Instead, they got lucky and their talented youngster between the posts meant that they only lost 1-0 at Real Esppor Club. However, it doesn’t change the fact that Zulia have been largely unconvincing this season and that’s massively because of the sale of their playmaker and goalscorer Orozco to VfL Wolfsburg following a string of impressive displays at the Copa Sudamericano U20 in Peru. Zulia are absolutely lost without him and a resounding 0-4 defeat against Aragua emphasised that on a grandiose scale. The trouble is that Zulia are now actually facing a side that are capable of winning 0-4 here, unlike Aragua, who simply capitalised on Zulia’s misfortune. No, Deportivo Petare are actually good enough to win this game by that scoreline of their own free will so Zulia have every reason to be afraid here, even with starlet Curiel being very confident at the moment. Zulia have played five games since the restart to the season and they’ve scored just two goals whilst conceding eleven times and it should have been more than that so I really don’t rate their chances here.
Visitors Deportivo Petare aren’t having a great campaign themselves although I think it’s fair to say that they were unlucky with injuries at the start of the campaign and they’ve since had more pressing engagements int he Copa Libertadores so their lack of good displays in the Primera Division can be accounted for. Since Paraguayan giants Cerro Porteno put them out of the Copa Libertadores, however, Deportivo Petare have returned to focusing on their domestic competition instead and finally claimed their first three points of the season last match by beating Atletico El Vigia 1-0 in a tense but important game. Deportivo Petare do bring momentum into this game as a result and as one of the “big three” in Venezuela, you have to fancy them to take their chances against a not only inferior Zulia side but also a Zulia side that are conceding for fun and aren’t scoring goals.
Therefore, for me, the away win looks generously priced at 6/4.
Verdict: Deportivo Petare to win at 6/4.
Prestatyn Town vs Bangor City – lay Bangor City at 6/5.
Towards the end of the regular season, Bangor City really started to fuck up on the road a lot and I’m hoping that’ll continue here. They have a bizarre record at Prestatyn Town as it is but their puzzling away form leading up to this game leaves them in a poor position to win. Bangor have only registered a single away win during their last five away games in all competitions and that was against Newtown when they won 0-1. During that run, Bangor City actually lost 4-2 at Prestatyn Town so it’s really not out of the question here. Bangor’s defending on the road has been the cause of their problems with goalscoring rarely proving to be a problem for the visitors. However, Prestatyn are strong goalscorers themselves at home and they do have a voodoo sign over Bangor so I fancy their chances here in a bizarre kind of way. Either way, the odds on laying a Bangor City side that aren’t producing the goods on the road look far too generous to ignore so that’s my call here today.
Verdict: Lay Bangor City at 6/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Apollon Limassol, APOEL Nicosia, Liga de Quito, Arsenal, AEK Athens, Lazio, Udinese, SSC Napoli, Twente Enschede, AFC Ajax Amsterdam, PSV Eindhoven, Olimpia Asuncion, Juan Aurich, Barcelona, Villarreal CF, Lausanne Sports, Kayserispor.
Recommended bets:
Olimpia Asuncion, Liga de Quito, and Deportivo Petare at 3/1.
Lausanne Sports, SSC Napoli, and Fiorentina at 3/1.
Lastly, I like the idea of a fun bet of five home wins in the Eredivisie today at 5/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Quilmes vs Estudiantes De La Plata (7) 1-2
River Plate vs Huracan (5) under 2.5 goals
Australian A-League:
Gold Coast United vs Melbourne Victory (6) 2-2
Austrian Bundesliga:
Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna (7) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
AA Gent vs Standard de Liege (6) 2-1
Westerlo vs Anderlecht (6) over 2.5 goals
Chilean Primera Division:
Union San Felipe vs Colo Colo (6) over 2.5 goals
Universidad de Chile vs Union Espanola (7) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Colombian Primera A:
Boyaca Chico vs Itagui Ditaires (7) 1-0
Real Cartagena vs Cucuta Deportivo (6) over 2.5 goals
Deportes Quindio vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla (5) under 2.5 goals
Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota (5) 1-1
Envigado vs La Equidad Bogota (6) both sides to score
Deportivo Cali vs Independiente Medellin (5) over 2.5 goals
Cypriot Division 1:
Apollon Limassol vs Ermis (8) -1.5 handicap
Doxa vs APOP/Kinyras (4) 0-1, draw no bet
Alki Larnaca vs APOEL Nicosia (8) 1-2
Ecudorian Primera A:
Liga de Quito vs Manta (8) 2-0
Olmedo Riobamba vs Deportivo Cuenca (4) 0-1, draw no bet
Imbabura vs El Nacional Quito (5) 0-1, draw no bet
English FA Cup:
Manchester City vs Notts County (7) both sides to score
Fulham vs Bolton Wanderers (6) 1-0
Leyton Orient vs Arsenal (8) both sides to score
English Championship:
West Bromwich Albion vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (6) 2-1
Finnish Liiga Cup:
RoPS Rovaniemi vs Jaro Pietarsaari (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
French Ligue 1:
Montpellier HSC vs LOSC Lille (6) 0-1
OGC Nice vs Paris Saint-Germain (4) under 2.5 goals
Toulouse vs Stade Rennais (7) under 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga:
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart (7) over 2.5 goals
Borussia Moenchengladbach vs Schalke 04 (5) both teams to score
German Bundesliga 2:
Erzebirge Aue vs Arminia Bielefeld (4) under 2.5 goals
FSV Frankfurt vs Karlsruher SC (6) over 2.5 goals
Osnabruck vs Rot-Weiss Oberhausen (5)
Greek Super League:
Olympiakos Volos vs Iraklis (5) 1-0
Atromitos vs Aris Salonika (7) under 2.5 goals
AEK Athens vs Panionios (8) 2-1
Xanthi vs Larissa (6) 1-0
Italian Serie A:
Lecce vs Juventus (5) both sides to score
Lazio vs Bari (8) 2-0
Udinese vs Brescia (8) 1-0
Parma vs Cesena (7) 2-1
Chievo Verona vs AC Milan (5) both sides to score
Genoa vs AS Roma (6) under 2.5 goals
Fiorentina vs Sampdoria (7) 2-0
SSC Napoli vs Catania (8) 1-0
Mexican Primera Division:
Toluca vs Necaxa (8) 2-0
Puebla vs Jaguares (4) 1-2, draw no bet
America vs Morelia (6) 1-0
Dutch Eredivisie:
ADO Den Haag vs Feyenoord Rotterdam (7) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Twente Enschede vs NEC Nijmegen (8) 2-1
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs VVV Venlo (9) -2.5 handicap
Vitesse Arnhem vs De Graafschap (7) 2-0
PSV Eindhoven vs NAC Breda (8) 2-1
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Independiente FBC vs Sol de America (5) 0-0
3 de Febrero vs Cerro Porteno (7) 0-1
Rubio Nu vs Tacuary (6) 2-1
Olimpia Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno (9) -1.5 handicap
Peruvian Primera Division:
Leon de Huanuco vs Cobresal (6) under 2.5 goals
Juan Aurich vs Union Comercio (8) 2-0
Melgar FBC vs Cienciano (5) 1-0
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Academica de Coimbra vs Rio Ave (3) 0-1, draw no bet
Vitoria Setubal vs Naval de Maio (5) 1-0
Maritimo Funchal vs Beira-Mar (6) 1-0
Sporting Braga vs Pacos de Ferreira (6) 1-1
Scottish Premier League:
Celtic vs Rangers (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
St.Mirren vs Hibernian (5) 0-1
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Celje vs Domzale (6) 0-1
Spanish Primera Liga:
Getafe vs Racing Santander (4) 1-2, draw no bet
Villarreal vs Malaga (8) 2-1
Almeria vs Deportivo La Coruna (5) over 2.5 goals, draw no bet
Osasuna vs Espanyol (6) 0-0, at least one red card in this game
Sevilla CF vs Hercules Alicante (7) 1-0
Barcelona vs Athletic Club de Bilbao (8) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Real Valladolid vs Real Betis Balompie (5) both sides to score
Ponferradina vs Granada (6)
Swiss Super League:
Basel vs Sion (7) 2-1
Bellinzona vs Luzern (4) 1-1
Thun vs Young Boys Bern (5) 1-2
Swiss Challenge League:
SC Kriens vs Servette (6)
Lausanne Sports vs Wil (8)
Locarno vs Wohlen (5)
FC Schaffhausen vs Delemont (6)
Winterthur vs Chiasso (7)
Aarau vs Biel-Bienne (6) under 2.5 goals
Stade Nyonnais vs Yverdon Sport (4)
Turkish Super Lig:
Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor (8) 2-0
Konyaspor vs Istanbul BB (4) 0-1, draw no bet
Besiktas JK vs Fenerbahce (5) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Racing Club Montevideo vs Liverpool Montevideo (5) 2-1
Cerro vs Defensor Sporting (6) 1-2
Danubio vs Miramar Misiones (7) 2-1
Rampla Juniors vs Bella Vista (6) 1-1
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Atletico El Vigia vs Deportivo Anzoategui (6) under 2.5 goals
Aragua vs Real Esppor Club (5) 0-0
Caracas vs Trujillanos (7) 2-0
Monagas SC vs Yaracuyanos (6) both sides to score
Deportivo Lara vs Mineros de Guayana (6) 1-0
Zulia vs Deportivo Petare (6) 0-1
Welsh Premier League:
Neath Athletic vs Llanelli (5) 1-1
Prestatyn Town vs Bangor City (4) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Enjoy your free betting tips!