Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow
FreeToday’s featured game is the Ekstraklasa encounter between Lech Poznan and Cracovia Krakow. Reigning champions Lech Poznan have failed to set the world alight with their mediocre displays thus far this season whereas Cracovia Krakow have rapidly become one of the more entertaining sides in the division, albeit largely through unconvincing defending!
However, hosts Lech Poznan enter this game on the back of a very good display in Ukraine as they miraculously won 1-0 at Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk with virtually half of their first-team missing so they’ll bring a lot of momentum into this game as a result. The formerly missing Rudnevs and Peszko both return to action for the reigning champions today and they’ll be very welcome indeed with Lech struggling to score goals currently. Lech still miss Bosacki, Chrapek, and Wojtkowiak for this game and with the first and last of those names being important defenders for Lech it’s fair to say that they do still have defensive issues for this game. They’re no doubt going to be focusing on their home game next week against Dnipro so they may rest players for this game so we could see a fairly weak Lech side, despite the returning Rudnevs and Peszko. Rudnevs is (or will become) their main goalscorer so his presence in this game convinces me that Lech will score at somepoint against a leaky Cracovia defence. Will Lech win this game? I don’t honestly know; it depends if their momentum from the game in Ukraine mid-week takes control here or whether they return to their abject displays ala the home game against Arka Gdynia. However, I do feel Lech will score today because they have the necessary firepower to do it!
So the ball is now in Cracovia’s court! I mentioned last week that Cracovia are aiming for a high Ekstraklasa finish following some strong investment in the squad over the summer and although it’s paid off on the goalscoring front, their defence still needs an awful lot of work. Cracovia have leaked five goals in two Ekstraklasa games and have lost both because of their defending so I can imagine they’re a tad pissed off right now, especially with their gut-wrenching defeat at Legia Warsaw last match which saw Legia score two goals in the last fifteen minutes, the second of which was in added time at the end of the game and came from a free-kick given because the Cracovia goalkeeper was time-wasting. It basically stinks of inexperience and/or bad decision-making but whatever the problem is, it’s very much present for Cracovia and should be taken advantage of. Cracovia played very well in that game, as it happens, but failed to convert their chances or the game could have very well ended with an away win, especially if Slusarski took his chance at the start of the game. Either way, Cracovia are attacking very well this year but aren’t defending well so expect plenty of overs game from them for the present time at least. Cracovia miss Wasiluk, Luczak, Suvuvov, and Krywicki through injury although their most important loss is recent acquisition Saidi Ntibazonkiza, who plays in midfield. He misses the game partially through a niggling muscle injury and partially because he’s Muslim and is currently in the Ramadan period and thus can’t eat or drink currently.
So we basically have two fairly under-strength sides competing with the hosts missing defenders and the visitors unable to defend. Both sides are capable of scoring goals and will prove so one way or another this season. However, the above information leaves me with the tip of both sides to score at generous odds of 11/10, just as it has been for the last four meetings between these sides in Poznan, and indeed, as it has been for six out of the last nine meetings in general between these two sides.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 11/10.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Shakhtyor Soligorsk vs Naftan Novopolotsk – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Shakhtyor Soligorsk enter this game following a 2-0-take-the-title-from-us-only-over-our-dead-bodies defeat by BATE Borisov and it’ll be interesting to see how they react to their defeat as they’ve not tasted it for a while due to an outstanding result. Ability-wise, Shakhtyor are one of the top sides in the division currently and should be treated with respect with that in mind, although I personally feel that odds of 2/5 on them winning this game shows them too much respect, to be honest. Shakhtyor do have a good head-to-head record against Naftan Novopolotsk and the visitors today don’t travel well but the fact is that both sides are good sides so 2/5 is quite unacceptable in my book. Shakhtyor aren’t generally a side I back in an over 2.5 goals bet because the number of goals in their Vysshaya Liga games in general averages as just over two goals and they tend to be quite the dominating/controlling side at home, scoring clinical goals and defending astutely. You could argue that this tactical approach has been the predominant reason behind them not topping the table this season as they’ve only won half of their home games and have basically dropped points at home when facing the more resilient and well-organised sides in the division. My personal belief as to why that is is because although leading goalscorer Komarovsky has done well leading the line this season, he’s more of a drifter out to the flanks rather than an out-and-out target man. It would have been interesting to see him pair up with Pavel Beganskiy, who is now at Torpedo Zhodino, as they could form a difficult strike partnership to deal with. However, rather than being concerned about Komarovsky’s ability to break through the Naftan defence, I choose to look at him differently as he’s playing against his old club and will want to score here. He was in the line-up for Naftan Novopolotsk when they drew here 1-1 last season so it’ll be quite the interesting game for him. Either way, Shakhtyor need points and have to go all out for the win today.
Naftan Novopolotsk are respected as a defensive unit in Belarus but have abandoned their atypical defensive strength lately in favour of a new-found attacking potency. They’ve racked up seventeen goals in six games (nearly three goals per game!) and have conceded five in their last three games so Naftan have been rapidly thrown into the world of over 2.5 goals despite being a traditional under 2.5 goals side. Naftan don’t travel well in general but claimed their first away win of the season last match, running out emphatic 4-1 winners at relegation-threatened Torpedo Zhodino. Despite their unconvincing away form statistics on the Vysshaya Liga table currently, they have actually scored in their last four consecutive away games, including trips to BATE Borisov and FC Minsk, so Naftan are scoring for fun at the moment. It’s refreshing to see this good side playing to their potential and I have no doubt that they’ll let loose today too with nothing to lose and everything to gain as they attempt to make a late break for a European place. Naftan have won five out of their last six games so momentum and belief is strong and they’ll aim to put a dent in Shakhtyor’s title push by pushing for their own European dream so we should see an interesting and open game today.
A potentially demoralised Shakhtyor Soligorsk hosting a potent Naftan Novopolotsk? This game smells of over 2.5 goals to me today! Four out of the last five meetings between these two sides in Soligorsk have gone over 2.5 goals and this one looks likely to do so today too so that’s my call here.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Neman Grodno vs Partizan Minsk – home win at evens.
I can’t accept that Neman Grodno are so generously priced here today. Statistics show that they’re yet to win a Vysshaya Liga home game in ten attempts, which is fair enough. However, I personally attribute that to starting the season badly and never recovering because Neman Grodno are a mid-table side that shouldn’t be where they are currently. They don’t defend badly at all; they just don’t score enough goals. Grodno have only lost four out of their ten home games this season so considering that they’re second from bottom in the table, it’s not a bad record at all – they just need to start finding the net. Enter Kovalenok, Neman’s leading goalscorer! If anyone can change this game then it’s him. He makes the difference to this squad, basically. He didn’t play at home against FC Minsk and they lost 1-0. He didn’t play at Shakhtar Soligorsk and they lost 4-1. However, he returned to action last match and scored in their 4-1 defeat at Naftan Novopolotsk so you can see that he does give them a fighting chance when he plays.
I’ll happily admit that both sides are on terrible runs of form at the moment so this is certainly a dicey call. However, my fundamental point here is that a youthful Partizan Minsk are where they are in the table because they’re not good enough to be in this division; Neman Grodno are where they are through bad luck and not enough strength in-depth. Neman Grodno are a decent enough side and I think we’ll see that today. The only four sides to win at Neman Grodno this season are BATE Borisov, Dinamo Minsk, FC Minsk, and Dnepr Mogilev, so it’s all the good sides (barring Dnepr Mogilev, who were in-form on the day) basically. For me, this game is between two out-of-form sides but only one of them is actually a poor side so I have to favour the hosts here, particularly at generous odds of evens, which should be fruitful if Grodno’s target man Kovalenok proves his worth today as usual! Grodno have won this fixture for three out of the last four seasons, dating back to when Partizan Minsk were a good MTZ-RIPO Minsk side, so you can see they’re a good side although well disguised currently! Lastly – Partizan Minsk have lost six out of ten away goals in the Vysshaya Liga this season because they’ve scored just four times on the road this season and they’re facing a solid Neman Grodno defence today. Home win for me!
Verdict: Neman Grodno to win at evens.
Eupen vs Racing Genk – lay Racing Genk at 6/5.
This should be a fascinating game because the bookies’ odds don’t really reflect how much of a pain in the arse Eupen actually are to play against. Eupen have made every side they’ve encountered work hard for their wins and although they have indeed lost all three Eerste Klasse games, they’ve certainly left their mark in each game. Only a resilient second-half display gave Anderlecht a flattering 4-1 win on the opening day of the season and Eupen have since restricted AA Gent to a 2-1 win away from home and battled valiantly with Westerlo at home, losing to just a single goal. Eupen are very tenacious and have great belief in themselves so I’m expecting a full-blooded display from them today as I don’t believe they’ll be demoralised from their start to the season; they can’t have expected anything else with a fairly poor squad at their disposal.
However, what really tips the scale in their favour for me is that Racing Genk have more important committments elsewhere at the moment. They’ve started the season a lot better than I expected them to despite impressive improvements to the squad over the summer; I simply expected their progress to be a lot later in the season. Genk have been destroying sides in this division thanks to young prodigy De Bruyne in midfield, arising striker Jelle Vossen, and experienced battler Stein Huysegems in attack to help Vossen out. They’ve got a very good side this year and seeing how they’ve started the season a lot better than I’d expected them to, don’t be surprised if they achieve a great finish this year. Returning to my point though – they were brought back down to earth mid-week by Porto as Genk lost 3-0 at home to the Portuguese giants, which was particularly disheartening as it was only 1-0 until the last ten minutes where Genk capitulated and conceded two goals. Genk have the return leg in Portugal next week and although Porto’s progresson looks a foregone conclusion, Genk aren’t just going to abandon the competition so I think they’ll rest some players for this game. Genk also have to deal with being brought back down to earth in that game so I’m not sure how this fairly new-look Genk side will cope with that and an energetic Eupen may just be a side they’d prefer to avoid right now.
It’s a risky call, I admit, but I think the odds on the away win are too short with the above in mind. Therefore, laying Racing Genk today at 6/5 could be a good bet.
Verdict: Lay Racing Genk at 6/5.
Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo – home win at 13/10.
Despite the return of experienced campaigner Dejan Petkovic, Flamengo are still in dire straits when it comes to goalscoring; they simply can’t cope with the loss of Adriano. They won last match against Ceara as I expected but that’s largely due to a lack of goal threat from Ceara and Flamengo being awarded a penalty, which eventually led to a second goal for Flamengo. Their problems are still entact in attack and although they’re good defensively, I can’t take a side seriously that doesn’t score goals. Flamengo have a decent away record this season that they owe entirely to their strong defence because they’ve only scored four goals in six away games. They’ve conceded five goals in six away games, which is interestingly the best defensive record in the division (joint with Fluminense) so Flamengo are competent at the back; they just can’t score goals. They’ve lost their last two away games consecutively without scoring in either game so Flamengo aren’t great on the road of late. It therefore can’t sit too well with Flamengo that they’re travelling to face an Atletico Paranaense side that they’ve failed to score against away from home for four out of their last five visits, losing four of those games. Atletico Paranaense are very much the atypical home side as three wins, two draws, and just one defeat in six home games indicates all too well and if they stay in the division this year then it’s that form that will keep them up. Atletico’s main failing is not scoring enough goals but with three wins from their last five home games and eight goals scored along the way, you have to feel that they have enough to score today. Only Cruzeiro have travelled to Atletico this season and not conceded with Santos having lost here and Sao Paulo having drawn here so the hosts shouldn’t be underestimated. Atletico do love to score goals at home to Flamengo too so the hosts should feel at least partially inspired tonight.
Although I’m prepared to accept that it is a risky call to bet against the Brazilian giants that are Flamengo, I feel the above information is enough to make the home win at 13/10 a good value bet today.
Verdict: Atletico Paranaense to win at 13/10.
Corinthians vs Sao Paulo – home win at evens.
Old rivals lock horns tonight in what is sure to be as fesity an affair as ever with cards galore! However, I’m bravely wading into it to back a Corinthians win here. Corinthians have struggled to score goals lately despite the misleading statistics and it was a problem that was somewhat inevitable for them due to their “we’ll-win-every-game-1-0” tactics. However, this is a derby so if they’re not motivated tonight to destroy their opponents then I’d question the legitimacy of calling any of their squad a “footballer”. Corinthians have the advantage of entering this game with the knowledge that they’ve not lost a derby game against Sao Paulo in nine consecutive meetings, winning their last three home meetings with Sao Paulo consecutively. Corinthains also have the advantage of being the only side left in Brazil with a 100% strike rate at home with seven wins from seven home games, averaging scoring two goals per home game and conceding very few goals indeed. They look far better prepared for this game than their bitter rivals Sao Paulo, either way! Sao Paulo have sacked their manager and replaced him with Baresi, so they’ve not got any consistency leading into this game (although he was in charge for their last game too). Sao Paulo have injury problems at the moment and have sold their best playmaker Hernanes to Lazio so this goal-shy outfit could be on the receiving end of a drubbing today from rich Corinthians if they’re not careful because I don’t see how they’ll shatter this Corinthians defence, although these things do seem to happy in derbies which is why I’m avoiding the handicap like the plague! However, the home win at evens looks decent value despite it being a derby becasue of the issues that Sao Paulo have and the strength that Corinthians have demonstrated this year so I’m with the hosts tonight.
Verdict: Corinthians to win at evens.
Vasco da Gama vs Fluminense – over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
This was a real contender for game of the day today but I marginally favoured the Ekstraklasa game between Lech and Cracovia. However, the Vasco da Gama vs Fluminense game bears the title of potentially being the game of the day to watch as it should be a real contrast of footballing styles. Gusmao’s Vasco side don’t concede goals but Muricy’s Fluminense have been outstanding this season because of the number of goals they’ve scored, both at home and away. Portuguese international Deco is set to debutise for Fluminense so he should be able to work some magic to open up this tight Vasco defence but Vasco are a tremendous home side with four wins, one draw, and just one defeat in Serie A this season despite not boasting any real stars in their squad. Vasco are unbeaten in seven consecutive games and have won three out of their last four so momentum is strong for them but it’s also strong for visitors Fluminense who are unbeaten in eleven consecutive games and have won four out of their last five.
Statistically speaking, Vasco are an unders side at home and Fluminense are an unders side away but I just feel that this game will go over. Both sides are playing really well tactically and something has to give somewhere. I’ve got in my head a scoreline of something really bizarre like 3-4 (cue the inevitable 0-0 draw haha!) and there’s enough favouring both sides for that kind of thing to happen. Approach with caution here but over 2.5 goals is just something I really fancy here due to the above reasoning.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna – lay CSKA Sofia at 21/20.
I’m not sure how long this CSKA Sofia nightmare will continue but I’m going to lay the hell out of them until they get back to normal. They’ve got so many problems on and off the field that I’m surprised they even bother to field a side! Well, some of their foreign players have decided not to bother training so I daresay that would be the next logical step anyway! You saw how much CSKA struggled mid-week against resilient minnows The New Saints from Wales so you know the position they’re in currently. They still boast one of the best sides in Bulgaria but as for showing it – well, that’s just not happening. One of the Rakovski players commented that CSKA’s players looked uninterested in the game following their 2-2 draw at nine-man Rakovski and that is a very deeply-rooted problem indeed. Additionally, CSKA won’t be playing games at home this season whilst their stadium is renovated so they’ve got to adjust to a new ground, something that hasn’t suited them so far with two defeats from two “home” games, although their defeat against Chernomorets Burgas was really an extremely unfortunate set of circumstances, although that statement in itself sums up CSKA Sofia entirely currently – an unfortunate set of circumstances! The reason I’m laying them at home today is because they’re facing one of the top six sides in the country and thus one of the few sides who I have any faith in being able to get a result here. Cherno More Varna don’t tend to travel too well but they do know how to defend so I think they’ve got a reasonable chance here, especially when coupled with the misdemeanors of CSKA Sofia at the moment. Interestingly enough, CSKA have only beaten Cherno More once at home in their last four attempts with the other three games ending as draws so all in all, I feel that laying CSKA Sofia today could have some value.
Verdict: Lay CSKA Sofia at 21/20.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Litex Lovech – home win with draw no bet at 5/6.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv have big aspirations this season; they want to be in European football next season. It’s a bit of a dream more than anything although they should be taken partially seriously because they have invested in the squad over the summer. The departure of French striker Dembele to Levski Sofia has hurt them as they’ve still not really found a replacement but they still boast a good squad. They’ve started their A PFG campaign well too, already beating table rivals Cherno More Varna and winning at Sliven last match, both games played without conceding a goal. Now Loko have a true test of their ambitions as they host one of the giants of Bulgarian football currently; Litex Lovech. Litex have beaten Loko for four consecutive meetings but won’t enter this game with any swagger following internal problems at the club. They’ve been unconvincing this season and have already sacked one manager following their exit from the UEFA Champions League against Slovakia’s MSK Zilina and if they continue playing as unconvincingly as they are then they’ll soon sack another. They’ve laboured to wins against minnows Pirin Blagoevgrad and Beroe respectively in recent times and were comfortably beaten 2-0 by Debreceni VSC in Hungary mid-week so Litex aren’t in great shape currently. They’ve got the return leg coming next week that they’ll have to rest players for and they’ve also just sold captain and star Ivelin Popov to Blackburn Rovers so where the Litex creativity will come from I don’t know as Popov’s dribbling was unmatched in Bulgaria. Romanian Florin Bratu and former West Ham United striker Todorov form a useful attack (well, Bratu is useful whilst Niflore is out) for Litex but without the service of Popov, I’m not sure how Litex will cope. To put it bluntly – the sale of Popov was the last thing they wanted right now so I think they could get caught out by an inspired and determined Lokomotiv Plovdiv today.
Ideally, I’d have preferred to lay Litex here as they could still claim a draw but the odds leave me a little cold. I’ll therefore take a chance on the home win with draw no bet at 5/6 although I’d leave it if the odds drop any more.
Verdict: Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win with draw no bet at 5/6.
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa – away win at 13/10.
I was at Old Trafford to watch Newcastle United fail to do anything for the majority of the game and if they can’t motivate themselves to play the biggest side in the country, not to mention their rivals, then they’re going to have real problems this year. Their midfield is combative and they press well but any kind of pacey attack leaves their defence in ruins. Newcastle offer little in attack although lumbreing Carroll deserves credit for his tireless efforts up front on his own. Newcastle don’t support him enough and therefore they have big problems. They easily lost 3-0 to Manchester United at Old Trafford despite Manchester United barely getting out of first gear in a rather rusty display. Had this game been mid-season, I don’t think I’m unfair by saying it could have been 6-0, 7-0 or even 8-0. Newcastle have a lot of work to do to stay in this division; they’re not the side they once were and the sooner they realise that, the better. They’ll have their tremendous home support today, which helps them, but they’re facing another pacey side in attack so I expect them to really struggle today. Ashley Young and Gabriel Agbonlahor didn’t travel with the squad to Austria mid-week so they’re fit and ready to cause mayhem down the Newcastle flanks. In fact, most of Villa’s main players didn’t travel to Austria so they have a full-strength squad to choose from here. Milner has left the club to join Manchester City but Villa weren’t too dependant upon him so shouldn’t miss him in a game like this, infectious though his tenacity undoubtedly was. The departure of O’Neill from the Villa side appears to have released the Villa players from a morose state of mind and they demonstrated that expertly by sweeping West Ham United aside in their opening Premier League game so I don’t have any concerns as far as his departure goes. Talented young winger Albrighton is making all the right noises in terms of getting himself in the team and Villa look very much the rejuvenated side currently. I think the likes of Dunne will be able to control Carroll in attack and the likes of Young will tear through this shaky Newcastle defence today so the away win looks a bit too generously priced and thus my call is the away win here.
Verdict: Aston Villa to win at 13/10.
Fulham vs Manchester United – Manchester United to win to nil at 13/10.
Biased? Never!
I think it’s about time United shook off their Craven Cottage curse and won here. Statistics show we’ve lost two consecutive trips to Fulham but statistics can be a tad misleading without the appropriate research. United have indeed lost twice in a row here. However, it should be noted that in one game we played seventy minutes with ten men and still dominated without finding the goal before eventually conceding again on the counter-attack. In the other game, we dominated for twenty minutes before conceding a very silly goal and never recovered from it, allowing Fulham to pressurise us into further mistakes and thus they won the game. Ironically, Paul Scholes was at fault in both of those games as he was sent off in one and gave away the first goal in the other – I wonder if he’ll play today?!
In all seriousness, the wins for Fulham looked far better on paper than they did in reality. There was a catalogue of errors that really shouldn’t occur in this match today. I have nothing but respect for the way Fulham played us because it worked well but that was Roy Hogdson’s Fulham; this is Mark Hughes’ Fulham. He’s not had anywhere near enough time to make this club his own and their lacklustre display at Bolton Wanderers last week showed that all too clearly. Fulham are a good team but without the right leadership, they don’t look anywhere near the side that reached the UEFA Europa League Final last season so I wouldn’t read too much into them at the moment. They’re still missing Kamara, Johnson, and Senderos, all of which are pretty hefty blows for a limited Fulham side so Hughes really has a tough job here. With only Zamora able to lead the line, Hughes moved quickly to acquire “Belgian” striker Moussa Dembele from AZ Alkmaar (that’s right – AZ now have no forwards left!), which was a smart move in my opinion. Now he just has to sort the tactics out but I doubt we’ll see it enforced for today.
United are virtually at full-strength. They’ve got the biggest squad in the Premier League when it comes to replacing injured players and the few that are unavailable (i.e. Hargreaves, Anderson, Rafael) can all be replaced. Anyone who says Rooney has lost it is a fucking moron, to be brutally honest. United players don’t play well for England and haven’t done so for years because without wanting to sound really snotty, United players have to adjust themselves accordingly to play for an inferior England side and it never works out. Rooney always looks better under Fergie than he does for England and he always will too because Fergie is a brilliant manager. Rooney will be back to basics in no time at all, maybe even in this game, given opportunity. I expect Fergie to field Park on one flank to restrict adventurous full-backs but he should keep the squad with the usual 4-4-2, although hopefully Fletcher will be a lot more on his game today than he was against Newcastle last week as Fulham’s central midfield is strong. Aside from that, I’m really rather confident of United doing the business here. I’ve not seen enough from Fulham or Mark Hughes to suggest that anything other than an away win will occur here and with United’s back four looking strong as ever, I’m not sure how a tempremental Bobby Zamora or a debutising Dembele will break the ranks so my call is a risky but generously-priced away win to nil at 13/10.
Verdict: Manchester United to win to nil at 13/10.
TPS Turku vs MyPa Anjalankoski – home win at evens.
This should really be another case of statistics not telling the whole story with a bit of luck! TPS have only won twice in eight home games this season but are actually one of the top sides in the division despite an ailing attack that is generally led by experienced campaigner Jonatan Johansson. However, TPS have looked good of late, especially in attack, winning three consecutive games and scoring seven times along the way. The promising Riski brothers are looking solid and TPS are benefiting from that, even to the degree where they won at bitter rivals Inter Turku last match without really being troubled. Confidence is high and indeed, it should be; TPS Turku could still attempt a late surge for the Veikkausliiga title, which would be strange seeing as they sold some very good players (i.e. Hamalainen) in the transfer window and I expected them to finish about fifth or sixth in the table as a result. The Veikkausliiga has been somewhat unpredictable this year, however, so TPS are still very much in the mix. They should be able to record a fourth consecutive win today against MyPa Anjalankoski as they have for three out of their last four home games against today’s visitors. They’re frankly a better side than the mind-numbingly boring MyPa and should show that today. MyPa are one of the most irritating sides on the planet for me as they appear to have no aspirations to attempt to win any of their games; they’d rather draw and not risk the potential counter-attack against them. MyPa have drawn three consecutive games ahead of this one and each game was against inferior opposition so hopefully they’ll get what is coming to them today. Either way, the odds on TPS winning this game are too generous in my eyes; they shouldn’t be longer than 8/13 to beat this droll MyPa side and I thoroughly expect a home win today as a result because of the quality difference.
Verdict: TPS Turku to win at evens.
FC Lahti vs HJK Helsinki – lay HJK Helsinki at 21/20.
This is one of my bolder calls of the day but recalling how much HJK struggled at home to Lahti earlier this season, it could yet be fruitful. As a fallen Veikkausliiga giant, this game means an awful lot to FC Lahti as it’s HJK that tend to take the Finnish limelight nowadays so expect a well-motivated display from the hosts. They’re only bottom of the table because of their inability to score goals; their defending has been generally very solid and they’re a hard side to beat. In fact, Lahti have now gone four games without defeat, winning once and drawing three times along the way. They’ve hosted in-form KuPS Kuopio and a good Inter Turku along the way so their confidence is high, and deservedly so, too. If you want an example of why FC Lahti are a good side without strikers then consider that only their opponents today, HJK Helsinki, have lost the same number of away games as they have this season – just once all season long. I pay more attention to statistics like that rather than the useful but occasionally misleading league tables!
When Lahti played HJK away, they managed to frustrate them with their well-organised defence and constant pressurising. HJK absolutely hate that because if Bah’s not on form then they struggle to break sides down. I remember Lahti missing some golden chances to score in that game too, which is of course the story of their season; over-reliance on veteran Jari Litmanen. However, the very real threat of relegation has hit them now and they’re battling as if their lives depended on it so anyone expecting an easy ride for HJK today should really think again. HJK have only won here twice in their last five visits and were bizarrely crushed 4-1 at Lahti in the Liiga Cup this season so don’t overestimate the Helsinki giants here. HJK also have to look to their squad’s depth as they have to host Besiktas JK next week in the UEFA Europa League Qualifier, in which they trail 2-0. HJK have been in tumultuous form since their consistent European committments arose and I’m banking on that counting against them today. Because of those committments, HJK have managed to somehow draw at a very poor AC Oulu and lose at home to title rivals FC Honka Espoo without even scoring a goal. HJK are biting off more than they can chew at the moment and I think this is another game where we could see them crack as a result.
The reversal of this fixture ended 0-0 in Helsinki earlier this season and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the same scoreline again today. HJK have the best quality in-depth in the division but they’re not playing well and not scoring goals so a defensively-sound Lahti could and probably should take something from this game at decent odds.
Verdict: Lay HJK Helsinki at 21/20.
RoPS Rovaniemi vs Viikingit Helsinki – home win at 10/11.
I’ve decided it’s about time we started backing RoPS again now. They’ve had their down period, which was always going to happen as the law of averages dictates. They’ve had an unfortuante run of form triggered by a derby draw with OPS Oulu. They’ve not scored a goal since then, which stretches back three games now, drawing all three games since then 0-0. People have actually been asking me what’s wrong with RoPS and the answer is that there isn’t really anything wrong with them; they’ve simply hit bad form at the wrong time. You see, the sides that RoPS have drawn with (OPS Oulu, PS Kemi Kings, FC Espoo, and KPV Kokkola) and the respective locations they played them at were all very difficult because they’re all very strong sides defensively. The slighest grain of weakness mentally will yield in poor results and that’s exactly what has happened. RoPS are still as good as ever; they just need a spark, and for me, this game is it. Viikingit Helsinki thrashed RoPS 3-0 earlier this season and RoPS will be keen to extract revenge on their Ykkonen title rivals. Viikingit are one of the few good sides in the division but RoPS are still the best by a long, long way. They’ve won six out of nine at home and average scoring over three goals per home game so you can see what I mean by it only taking a spark to set off RoPS on the road again. Ironically, Viikingit enter this game on the back of a defeat against OPS Oulu, who caused the bad run’s beginning for RoPS Rovaniemi, which is interesting. That defeat will have hurt them but I think RoPS are finally going to break free of their shackles and blast Viikingit into oblivion. Maybe RoPS’ run will be prolonged by a good Viikingit side; who knows? All I know is that the odds on the home win here are far too generous and I think it’s worth taking a chance on RoPS coming back for this game at 10/11 because they will be back with a bang sooner rather than later and they’ll be motivated to do it today after their humbling in Helsinki a couple of months ago. The long trip north to Rovaniemi is a difficult one and I think Viikingit might just find themselves hating yet another northern side after today’s encounter as a result of it.
Verdict: RoPS Rovaniemi to win at 10/11.
BV09 Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen – home win at 27/20.
This is a quite risky call but I’ve basically been far more impressed with Dortmund’s pre-season displays and their signings than I have been with Leverkusen’s. Leverkusen are relying too much on age and experience without providing the necessary blend of youth that is vital for the club to succeed in general. Dortmund have won this fixture for two out of Leverkusen’s last three visits with the other game ending as a draw so Dortmund do know how to win this fixture. The acquisitions of Polish striker Robert Lewandowski and Japanese midfielder Kagawa already look like outstanding signings for Dortmund as they compliment the pacey Blaszczykowski and the battling Barrios perfectly, not to mention giving playmaker Nuri Sahin more to aim for. Dortmund have the fundamentals to create an outstanding side here, in my humble opinion; possibly even one to challenge the days of Lars Ricken and Matthias Sammer if their progress is continued. They have an awful lot of variety, talent, and tenacity in this side and I expect to see that show by their eventual league placing this year. Leverkusen still have a decent side but they’ve never convinced me that they’re good enough to win games of this calibre because they don’t score enough goals. The return of Michael Ballack to their ranks will no doubt have the fans buoyant but the squad still looks rather old and stagnant to me and I think they’ll get caught out a lot more this year in comparison to last year when they came out of nowhere to surprise sides.
Although I don’t have a lot to go off, I do think there’s value on this talented and able Dortmund side to beat an ageing and stagnant Leverkusen side at home as the odds are a little more generous than they should be.
Verdict: BV09 Borussia Dortmund to win at 27/20.
Montedio Yamagata vs Vissel Kobe – home win at 23/20.
Having finally realised that the threat of relegation is upon them, Montedio Yamagata have leapt into overdrive and have now won three consecutive games as a result. They’re such a dangerous side to play against at times like this because their defence is rock-solid at all times so if they add potency to that mix, they look untouchable, which is exactly what they’re currently doing. Their three consecutive wins have all unsurprisingly been 1-0 wins but their two most recent fixtures (at home to Albirex Niigata and at Yokohama F.Marinos) were particularly impressive as the two sides they beat are better than they are, in my humble opinion. Montedio Yamagata are now flying high as a result of those wins and are facing Vissel Kobe, who have a interesting habit of consistently losing to today’s hosts, having lost three times in a row now. Kobe have looked better of late themselves but still find themselves on the receiving end of results away from home and they should find that again today against a rock-solid and in-form Montedio Yamagata. Kobe have already lost six out of nine on the road this season; one more won’t hurt!
Yamagata haven’t conceded against Kobe for three consecutive meetnigs with Yamagata winning all of them. Given that Yamagata have conceded less goals at home this season than every other side in the division barring Kawasaki Frontale, who match their record, you have to feel that the hosts will emerge with a clean sheet here, especially as Vissel Kobe don’t even average scoring a goal per away game. Therefore, the big question is will Yamagata score? Momentum favours them so I think they’ll score and thus taking the home win today at 13/10 should be profitable.
Verdict: Montedio Yamagata to win at 23/20.
Viking Stavanger vs Start Kristiansand – over 3.5 goals at 27/20.
This is a risky call but a fun one. Start have the worst defensive record in the division away from home as they average conceding nearly three goals per away game, which is a real contrast from their home form where they score for fun and keep it tight at the back. Start are actually a good side and they always bring goals to games so I see no reason to expect anything otherwise today. Viking are a good home side and score goals for fun at home so I expect them to do the usual today by scoring at will. I can’t really substantiate my call any more than the statistics suggest; both sides score a lot of goals so we should hopefully see a lot of goals today!
Verdict: Over 3.5 goals at 27/20.
Galatasaray vs Bursaspor – lay Galatasaray at evens.
Galatasaray have a deceptively poor side this season so don’t back them based on their name until informed otherwise! You can see how poor they’ve been in European football, let alone domestic football, as the fans wage a silent war against Dutch manager Frank Rijkaard and his strange tactics. Gala struggle a lot at home when under pressure because of the intimidating fans so don’t make the mistake of thinking that the Ali Sami Yen will lift the home team; they won’t. The Gala defence is slow and they’re short on actual good players. The only good players they actually have are Neill, Kewell, Turan, and Cana, and only Turan and Kewell do anything for the team creativity-wise. Gala are in a bad way at the moment and also have to focus on their trip to Ukraine next week to take on Karpaty Lviv as they bid to reach the next round of the UEFA Europea League so they may rest players today. Either way, I just don’t see how they’re anywhere near ready to beat reigning champions Bursaspor today. Bursaspor have a lot to learn this season about dealing with sides that set up purely to stop them from scoring but Gala won’t present that kind of opposition so we should see the “real” Bursaspor on show today. They’ve strengthened their squad over the summer and the nucleus of the squad is still together so I fancy Bursaspor to get something here, just as they did last year; I just can’t believe that they’re priced as generously as they are to do so!
Verdict: Lay Galatasaray at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Rapid Vienna, FC Minsk, Internacional, Levski Sofia, Hajduk Split, Sigma Olomouc, Liga de Quito, Vikingur Gotu, HB Torshavn, Skonto Riga, Morelia, Porto, Rubin Kazan, Celtic, Kalmar, Caracas.
Recommended bets:
FC Minsk, Skonto Riga, and Aston Villa at 2/1.
Rubin Kazan, Hajduk Split, and Lokomotiv Plovdiv DNB at 2/1.
Internacional, Morelia, and Corinthians at 3/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Gimnasia De La Plata vs Colon de Santa Fe (6) 1-1
River Plate vs Independiente (6) 2-1
Arsenal de Sarandi vs Huracan (5) 0-0
All Boys vs Boca Juniors (5) 0-1
Australian A-League:
Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners (6) 2-1
Melbourne Victory vs North Queensland Fury (6) 2-1
Austrian Bundesliga:
Rapid Vienna vs SV Mattersburg (8) 2-1
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Shakhtyor Soligorsk vs Naftan Novopolotsk (7) both sides to score, over 2.5 goals
Neman Grodno vs Partizan Minsk (6) 2-1
FC Minsk vs Vitebsk (8) 2-0
Belshina vs Dnepr Mogilev (6) 1-0
Dinamo Brest vs BATE Borisov (4) 1-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Charleroi vs AA Gent (6) 1-1
Club Brugge vs Mechelen (6) 2-1
Eupen vs Racing Genk (5) 1-1
Brazilian Serie A:
Santos vs Atletico Mineiro (6) both sides to score
Guarani vs Palmeiras (6) 1-1
Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo (6) 1-0
Internacional vs Atletico Goianiense (8) 2-0
Cruzeiro vs Vitoria (5) 1-0
Corinthians vs Sao Paulo (7) 2-0, at least one red card in this game
Vasco da Gama vs Fluminense (5) over 2.5 goals
Bulgarian A PFG:
Levski Sofia vs Kalikara (8) 2-0
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Litex Lovech (5) 2-1, draw no bet
CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna (6) 1-1
Chilean Primera Division:
Union San Felipe vs Santiago Morning (7) 2-1
Palestino vs Nublense (4) 1-1
La Serena vs Santiago Wanderers (5) over 2.5 goals
Cobreloa vs Audax Italiano (4) over 3.5 goals
Everton vs Universidad de Concepcion (5) 2-1
Colombian Primera A:
Deportes Tolima vs Boyaca Chico (7) 2-1
La Equidad Bogota vs Atletico Huila (6) 1-0
Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota (5) 1-1
Envigado vs America de Cali (6) 1-1
Real Cartagena vs Cortulua (7) 1-0
Millonarios Bogota vs Once Caldas Manizales (6) 2-2
Croatian Prva Liga:
Slaven Koprivnica vs Dinamo Zagreb (5) 1-1
Hajduk Split vs Zadar (8) 2-0
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Bohemians 1905 vs Ceske Budejovice (5) under 2.5 goals
Mlada Boleslav vs Banik Ostrava (6) 1-1
Sigma Olomouc vs Brno (8) 2-0
Danish Superligaen:
SonderjyskE vs AC Horsens (5) 1-0, draw no bet
Silkeborg vs Randers (6) 1-2
Brondby vs OB Odense (6) 1-0
Danish 1st Division:
Hvidovre vs HB Koge (6)
Vestjaelland vs Fyn (7) over 2.5 goals
Fredericia vs AB Copenhagen (6)
Kolding vs Naestved (5)
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Liga de Quito vs Olmedo Riobamba (8) 2-0
Independiente vs Universidad Catolica (5) 2-1
Deportivo Cuenca vs Espoli Cayambe (7) 1-0
El Nacional Quito vs Deportivo Quito (7) 0-0
English Premier League:
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa (6) 1-2
Fulham vs Manchester United (7) 0-2
English Championship:
Middlesbrough vs Sheffield United (6) under 2.5 goals
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
Vikingur Gotu vs B71 Sandur (8) 2-0
Suduroy vs B36 Torshavn (5) 0-1
AB Argir vs IF Fuglafjordur (6) 1-1
HB Torshavn vs B68 Toftir (8) 2-1
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
FC Lahti vs HJK Helsinki (5) 0-0
Tampere United vs Inter Turku (6) 1-1
TPS Turku vs MyPa Anjalankoski (7) 2-1
Finnish Ykkonen:
Jippo Joensuu vs PS Kemi Kings (7)
KooTeePee Kotka vs TPV Tampere (4)
RoPS Rovaniemi vs Viikingit Helsinki (6) over 2.5 goals
French Ligue 1:
Montpellier HSC vs Stade Malherbe de Caen (4) 1-1
Sochaux vs LOSC Lille (5) 0-0
Paris Saint-Germain vs Girondins de Bordeaux (6) 2-1
German Bundesliga:
Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart (5) 1-1
BV09 Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen (6) 2-1
German Bundesliga 2:
Energie Cottbus vs Fortuna Dusseldorf (6)
Greuther Furth vs Karlsruher SC (5)
Osnabruck vs MSV Duisburg (6) over 2.5 goals
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Budapest Honved vs Debreceni VSC (6) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Gyori ETO FC vs MTK Budapest (6) 2-1
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs UMF Grindavik (6) over 2.5 goals
FH Hafnarfjordur vs Fylkir Reykjavik (6) over 2.5 goals
Italian Serie B:
Frosinone vs Empoli (5)
Grosseto vs Ascoli (6)
Livorno vs Sassuolo (7)
Modena vs Piacenza (6)
Padova vs Novara (7)
Pescara vs Siena (6)
Portosummaga vs Cittadella (5)
Triestina vs Albinoleffe (6)
Reggina vs Crotone (7)
Japanese J-League:
Montedio Yamagata vs Vissel Kobe (6) 1-0
Omiya Ardija vs Vegalta Sendai (7) 2-1
Jubilo Iwata vs Shimizu S-Pulse (4) 1-1
Nagoya Grampus vs Gamba Osaka (5) 2-2
Latvian Virsliga:
FK Ventspils vs Liepajas Metalurgs (7) 2-1
Skonto Riga vs Blazma Rezekne (9) -1.5 handicap
Jelgava vs Tranzits Ventspils (6) 2-1
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Vetra Vilnius vs Zalgiris Vilnius (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Siauliai vs Mazeikiai (7) 2-0
Banga Gargzdai vs Atletas (7) 1-0
Mexican Primera Division:
Morelia vs Necaxa (8) 2-0
Pumas UNAM vs Puebla (6) 1-1
Queretaro vs America (5) 1-1
Dutch Eredivisie:
FC Utrecht vs Willem II (6) 1-0
Heracles Almelo vs Feyenoord Rotterdam (5) 1-1
VVV Venlo vs ADO Den Haag (6) 2-1
PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar (7) 2-1
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Viking Stavanger vs Start Kristiansand (7) over 2.5 goals
Lillestrom vs Aalesund (5) 2-1
Tromso vs Odd Grenland Skien (6) 1-0
Honefoss vs Stabaek (5) 2-2
Kongsvinger vs Haugesund (5) 0-0
Rosenborg BK vs Molde FK (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Norwegian Divisjon 1:
Mjondalen vs Fredrikstad (5)
Strommen vs Sandnes Ulf (6) over 2.5 goals
Nybergsund vs Bodo Glimt (6)
Bryne vs Ranheim (5)
Sarpsborg 08 vs Lov-Ham Bergen (6) over 2.5 goals
Tromsdalen vs Sogndal (6)
Moss vs Alta (5)
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Guarani Asuncion vs Nacional Asuncion (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Olimpia Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno (5) 1-1, at least one red car in this game
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow (6) both sides to score
Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia Bialystok (6) 1-1
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Portimonense vs Naval de Maio (4) 1-0, draw no bet
Uniao de Leiria vs Pacos de Ferreira (6) 0-0
Sporting Clube de Lisboa vs Maritimo Funchal (6) 2-1
Porto vs Beira-Mar (8) 2-0
Romanian Liga:
Universitatea Cluj vs Otelul Galati (5) 0-1, draw no bet
Vaslui vs Steaua Bucharest (5) 1-1
Poli Timisoara vs Victoria Branesti (6) 2-1
Russian Premier League:
Sibir Novosibirsk vs Amkar Perm (5) 1-1
Dinamo Moscow vs Lokomotiv Moscow (5) 1-0
Rubin Kazan vs Saturn Moscow Oblast (8) 2-0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Anzhi Makhachkala (6) 1-1
Scottish Premier League:
Hibs vs Rangers (5) 1-1
Celtic vs St.Mirren (8) -1.5 handicap
Kilmarnock vs Motherwell (6) 1-1
Dundee United vs Inverness Caledonian Thistle (7) 2-1
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Maribor vs Celje (7) 2-1
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Koper (5) 1-1
Swedish Allsvenskan:
BK Hacken Goteborg vs Elfsborg Boras (6) 1-2
Djurgarden vs IFK Goteborg (6) 1-2
Kalmar vs Atvidaberg (8) 2-0
Swedish Superettan:
Vasby United vs Assyriska Sodertalje (6)
Syrianska Sodertalje vs GIF Sundsvall (5)
Swiss Super League:
Grasshoppers Zurich vs Luzern (7) 2-1
Neuchatel Xamax vs Bellinzona (6) 2-0
Young Boys Bern vs FC Zurich (5) 2-2
Swiss Challenge League:
Lugano vs Lausanne Sports (7) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Locarno vs Vaduz (5) draw no bet
Turkish Super Lig:
Genclerbirligi vs Gaziantepspor (6) 2-1
Galatasaray vs Bursaspor (5) 1-1
Manisaspor vs Ankaragucu (6) 0-0
Ukrainian Premier League:
Tavriya Simferopol vs Metalurg Zaporizhya (6) 1-0
Dynamo Kiev vs Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk (7) 2-0
Karpaty Lviv vs Sevastopol (6) 2-1
Metalist Kharkiv vs Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih (7) 2-1
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Liverpool Montevideo vs Rampla Juniors (7) 2-1
El Tanque Sisley vs Racing Club Montevideo (5) 1-1
Cerro vs Danubio (6) 1-1
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Carabobo vs Yaracuyanos (6) 2-1
Atletico Venezuela vs Caroni (6) 1-0
Caracas vs Estudiantes de Merida (8) 2-1
Trujillanos vs Deportivo Tachira (6) 1-1
Monagas SC vs Zulia (5) 2-2
Atletico El Vigia vs Aragua (6) 0-0
Deportivo Lara vs Real Esppor Club (5) 1-0
Zamora vs Deportivo Petare (6) 1-0
Mineros de Guayana vs Deportivo Anzoategui (5) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!