Legia Warsaw vs Cracovia Krakow
FreeToday’s featured game is the Ekstraklasa game between Legia Warsaw and Cracovia Krakow. It’s interesting that the Polish FA have decided that this game should be on a monday night when you consider that Legia Warsaw only played against rivals Polonia Warsaw on friday night but Legia should still be raring to go. Be careful when anticipating Cracovia Krakow, incidentally – they’re not the same side that they were last year!
Hosts Legia Warsaw had a terrible campaign last time out and thus aren’t in European competition this year. For their wealthy owners, that’s just not good enough so they’ve invested heavily in the squad over the summer and have looked better for it in friendlies, as some of you may have seen in their remarkable 5-6 defeat at home to Arsenal. Their biggest problem area is their goalkeepers, both of which have failed to replaced Slovakian Jan Mucha, who has joined Everton. Aside from that, Legia have a good squad as they set out to take Lech Poznan’s Ekstraklasa crown from them this year and the signings they’ve made encourage me that they’ll be able to. They were beaten 3-0 at Polonia Warsaw on friday night and the result was fair with Legia seemingly forgetting all about a little thing called “tactics”. However Legia Warsaw have brought in the likes of Alejandro Cabral from Velez Sarsfield, Manu from Maritimo Funchal, Bruno Mezenga from Flamengo, and Vrdoljak from Dinamo Zagreb as they looked to completely revamp their squad so it may take a little time to bed in, impressive though their signings are. Mezenga has the potential to set the Ekstraklasa alight if he adapts quickly as his pace and clinical finishing can be a valuable asset for Legia Warsaw although there’s obviously something wrong with his attitude somewhere as he was supposed to make the grade a few years ago at Flamengo but has failed to do so with this being his second loan move in successive years. Either way, Legia have enough in their arsenal to take the game to Cracovia today and should score at least once as they have done for six out of their last seven home meetings against Cracovia.
However, before fawning the home win with relish, consider that Cracovia Krakow have lofty aspirations of their own this season. They were battling against relegation last season but this season have invested heavily and their aim is a top five place. They’ve brought in Slovakian centre-back Jarabica from Ceske Budejovice, Ntibazonkiza from NEC Nijmegen (who misses the game today), Janus from GKS Belchatow, and Grzegorzewski from relegated Odra Wodzislaw just to name a few. Cracovia Krakow have spent a lot of money by their standards and their expectations are high as a result as they aim to challenge their more illustrious local rivals Wisla Krakow long-term. Cracovia’s opening Ekstraklasa game was a bizarre one as they lost 3-2 at home to a Slask Wroclaw side that doesn’t travel too well, showing that Cracovia’s team still needs time to settle but also indicating that they do have more options in attack nowadays. Cracovia haven’t scored in their last four visits to face Legia but this isn’t the old Cracovia – this is a new-look Cracovia with the ability to score goals nowadays and against a Legia side that is a little demoralised after losing to Polonia Warsaw, I think they might just find a few gaps to exploit, especially given Legia’s lack of confident goalkeepers.
This is obviously a risky bet so do approach it with caution but I just feel that both sides have got a lot of settling down to do with new players galore in both sides. Both have the capability to score and concede heavily in the majority of their games for the start of the Ekstraklasa campaign at least and that’s the type of game I’m expecting today. Legia should win the game but there’s no value there for me at such an early stage of the season so my call today is for both sides to score at good odds of 6/5.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 6/5.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Brno vs Mlada Boleslav – over 2.5 goals at 21/20.
I was sorely tempted to take Mlada Boleslav to win this one at good odds of 3/2 before I reminded myself just why Mlada Boleslav are 3/2 to win this game i.e. they’re the most unreliable side in the Gambrinus Liga at the best of times. Conisder that they crushed a solid Marila Pribram 3-0 and yet drew at home to an impotent Ceske Budejovice side and you’ll see what I mean. However, one thing Mlada Boleslav tend to bring to their games is goals, something that only Sigma Olomouc did more than they did last season. In fact, Mlada scored more away goals than any other side last season but also had the unenviable record of having conceded so many on the road that only Sigma Olomouc, Slovacko, and eventually-relegated Bohemians Prague could “better”. The departure of French playmaker Ludovic Sylvestre to English Premier League side Blackpool will have hurt Mlada a little but they’ve still got enough ability to score and concede freely, as they have done already this season. Three of Mlada’s last five visits here have gone over 2.5 goals and with Brno’s defence the worst in the Gambrinus Liga currently, that record looks likely to be prolonged today. Brno have already leaked eleven goals in four games this season, which is an average of nearly three goals per game, so it’s safe to say that they’re likely to concede today. They’ve not made a drastic effort in front of goal in general but have scored in both of their home games this season, putting two past giants Slavia Prague in their last home game. Brno have lost every game this season, however, so morale is low and their defence is shipping goals for fun and thus I doubt they’ll be able to contain Mlada Boleslav today.
Mlada Boleslav have won their last three visits here so the away win at 3/2 is very tempting. However, Mlada Boleslav have burned me many times before due to their unpredictable nature so I’m far happier with over 2.5 goals at generous odds of 11/10 between these two anti-defence sides.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 21/20.
Midtylland vs Aalborg BK – both sides to score at 10/11.
I’m a big advocate of Midtylland; I think they’re a good and well-organised side. They’ve had a terrific start to this season with three wins from four games with the only side to blemish their record being rivals Brondby, who claimed a narrow 1-0 home win over Midtylland a few weeks ago. Midtylland have strolled to success in their other three games without conceding a goal so morale is high currently. However, the sale of New Zealand centre-back Winston Reid to West Ham United will undoubtedly disrupt their defence and I think we’ll see that today. I must point out that Midtylland’s victories so far this season have come against very poor Superligaen sides and that today they host a very capable Aalborg BK side so I think they’ll have a tough game here. Aalborg BK have problems of their own after a promising 4-2 win at Lyngby on the opening day of their campaign, failing to win a game since then due to not scoring enough goals. They’ve got financial problems and that has impacted them but they managed to steal a goal away at FC Copenhagen in their last away game in a 1-1 draw so they still have that unyielding ability to steal a goal from nowhere. Aalborg’s goals are all come from youngster Schwarz at the moment when Curth and Dalsgaard should be contributing, hence Aalborg’s problems. They’ve also been missing Norwegian forward Daniel Fredheim Holm so that’s a further issue in the Aalborg camp currently. However, Aalborg are a very composed side in general and will enjoy frustrating Midtylland today so we should see a fairly open counter-attacking game. Four out of the last six games between these two sides have included both sides scoring, as have three out of the last five meetings between these two sides at Midtylland, so I do fancy both sides scoring today particularly after the departure of Midtylland’s dominant centre-back Reid.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 10/11.
Manchester United vs Newcastle United – Newcastle United to win with +1.5 goal handicap at 10/11.
As a Manchester United fan and season ticket holder, I find it hard to make this kind of bet. However, I have to be neutral with betting and there could be value in this selection today.
Why? Well, Manchester United have a well-documented habit of not starting the season well. United meandered their way to a 1-0 win at home to resilient Birmingham City on the opening day of the Premier League last season, drew at home against tonight’s opponents Newcastle United 1-1 the season before that,
drew 0-0 at home to Reading the season before that, and so on. I’ve been at all of those games and although United have had the lion’s share of possesion in all of those games, the lack of match fitness for playing against sides that are here purely to stop United playing tends to limit our goalscoring ability.
This game won’t be like Manchseter United vs Chelsea in the Community Shield last week because that was an open game between two good sides. Newcastle are not going to line-up here with an attacking formation; it’s more than likely going to be 4-5-1 with Carroll or Lovenkrands up top to try and create something on the counter-attack. I expect Newcastle to put Smith and Nolan in the middle to try and prevent annihlation and they should have a little joy here, really.
The key to Newcastle gaining a result against Manchester United two seasons ago was one man; Jonas Gutierrez. Manchester United didn’t prepare for him whatsoever, seemingly, and he ran riot down Newcastle’s left-flank and did no end of damage. If he’s controlled in this game and Manchester United approach the game properly then they’ll be able to win this game comfortably. However, as I touched upon earlier, Manchester United don’t start seasons well against physical sides that only defend like Newcastle and I fancy that outcome more than I do the former, although I’d obviously prefer the latter!
The only way I can see Manchester United breaking through Newcastle enough to do the necessary damage tonight is down the flanks. If Valencia and Nani both start for Manchester United then I’d probably leave my recommendation today as I don’t think Newcastle’s full-backs can cope with them and Manchester United can grind out a 2-0 win here.
Don’t forget that there is a large rivalry between the two clubs here so Newcastle will be well-motivated for this game, especially as it’s their first game back in the Premier League. Manchester United should win this game but having watched us struggle in all of our opening games for season after season, I just don’t see any value on Manchester United tonight, although I’ll be more than happy if it ends 10-0, believe me!! My recommendation value-wise, however, is to give Newcastle a +1.5 goal head start as I expect Manchester United to win this game 1-0 or possibly 2-1.
Verdict: Newcastle United to win with +1.5 goal handicap at 10/11.
IFK Mariehamn vs AC Oulu – over 2.5 goals at 10/11.
“IFK Mariehamn” and “Over 2.5 goals” have walked hand-in-hand for a while now with nine of their last eleven games going over 2.5 goals. It’s such a bizarre transformation from a side that were built entirely on defence last season as they’re now extremely potent without really boasting any great attackers. They have tremendous momentum at the moment and confidence is through the roof as a result. They’re conceding heavily but their belief allows them to out-score each opponent so I fancy them to do a lot of damage against minnows AC Oulu today. AC Oulu have claimed two draws in a row now to boost their momentum but they’re not facing a side that adheres to tactical ways today – they’re just facing a machine of goals so it’ll be interesting to see how AC Oulu approach the game. AC Oulu average conceding over two goals per away game but score one per away game on average too so the prospect of this game going over 2.5 goals looks more likely by the minute! Both sides need the points as they both bid to beat the drop and with just nine games remaining, it’s time for AC Oulu to abandon their defensive shell in search of points so it’s over 2.5 goals for me today at decent odds of 10/11.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 10/11.
Otelul Galati vs Targu Mures – home win at 3/5.
Otelul Galati have been superb so far this season with extremely well-organised and efficient displays. They’re not one of the leading names in Liga 1 but they’re certainly a hard side to face, especially at home, and everyone that has faced them so far this season has encountered that undeniable fact with Otelul still yet to concede a goal this season. Otelul aren’t the greatest goalscorers in the division and nor do they boast the most creativity but they’re fast, aggressive, and in-your-face, which makes them virtually unbearable to face when they play with momentum as they are now. They even went to Bucharest and held Rapid to a goalless draw lately and deservedly so after an excellent display so I do fancy Otelul a lot today.
Visitors Targu Mures have done well following promotion due to their defensive line-up. You can either admire their draw at Vaslui and win at home to Unirea Urziceni over their past two games or take into consideration the massive problems that both of their opponents had at that time and label Targu as “lucky”. The only game that Targu Mures have played so far that showed any of their true colours was their defeat at home to Brasov, in my opinion. Targu Mures offer little in front of goal but they’re resilient and will stick men behind the ball at every possible opportunity and I think they’ll do exactly the same thing again today.
All in all, this should be a pretty low-scoring game. I can’t see masses of chances but I do see in-form Otelul eventually breaking through Targu Mures either once or twice and thus winning the game. Odds of 3/5 aren’t as good as I’d hoped they’d be but there’s still value there given the superiority of Otelul and their consistent strength when playing in Galati. I’d say wait and bet in-play for better odds but Otelul are quick starters; there’s a good chance they’ll score in the first-half, and in which case I’d be tempted to back them with the -1.5 goal handicap. For now, however, I’m all over the home win at 3/5.
Verdict: Otelul Galati to win at 3/5.
Steaua Bucharest vs Victoria Branesti – Victoria Branesti to win with +1.5 goal handicap at 10/11.
Steaua Bucharest’s maniac chairman Gigi Becali has sensationally sacked club favourite Victor Piturca and has thus ended Steaua’s hopes of the Liga 1 title this season, in my opinion. God only knows why he’s done it; any input from our Romanian friends is definitely appreciated here. Gigi has been a prick of the highest order in Romania for a long time with his “special friendships” and match-fixing allegations and he’s proven to be so yet again. Piturca was a good and experienced manager who was working well with a Steaua side that isn’t the best they’ve had, to put it bluntly. He was popular with the fans and as a result a good number of them have boycotted this game today and I don’t blame them – Gigi is such a nutcase! They’ve brought in ex-Tottenham Hotspur midfielder Ilie Dumitrescu, who although was a good player, is not yet proven as a manager. Brief sints here and there have left a bad reputation over his reportedly defensive style of play and that won’t go down well with Steaua, making this game even more sour for the hosts. The only thing that counts in Gigi’s favour here is that Dumitrescu was a Steaua academy boy so the fans may at least give him a chance but the club is basically a mess at the moment as a result of this so I won’t be backing Steaua today!
Visitors Victoria Branesti aren’t a good side and have struggled following promotion to the Liga. You could argue that they’ve been unfortunate in some games but I put it down to a lack of experience at the club, both on and off the field. They gave CFR Cluj a very tough game a couple of weeks ago before eventually succumbing to a 2-0 defeat but they were well-organised and left the game with some respect as a result. They claimed their first victory of the season last match in Buzau against Universitatea Craiova so Branesti finally have some momentum to take into a game and given the crisis that Steaua Bucharest have currently, they could be forgiven for fancying their chances today.
Quality-wise, Steaua dominate this game on paper. In terms of organisation and belief, however, Branesti are the favoured side here given the recent happenings at Steaua. Although it’s a risky call, the idea of giving the newly-promoted side a +1.5 goal head start in what is unequivocally their cup final appeals to me whilst the odds remain at a decent level of 10/11.
Verdict: Victoria Branesti to win with +1.5 goal handicap at 10/11.
Trelleborg vs BK Hacken Goteborg – home win at 27/20.
Both of these sides were on quite good runs of form of late until both were brought back down to earth with a bang as Hacken were crushed 5-1 by their more illustrious neighbours IFK Goteborg at home and Trelleborg were robbed by conceding two goals in the dying minutes at Kalmar to surrender their one goal lead and thus lost 2-1. However, Trelleborg played very well and deserved more from the game and considering they’d won four consecutive Allsvenskan games prior to that, I have to give them their chances today as the morale in the camp is strong currently. They’re defending well and taking their chances, two things they hadn’t done all season until now but the fear of relegation does strange things to sides sometimes! Adelstam and Drugge have been lethal in Trelleborg’s attack of late and it’s the goals from those two that are beginning to push Trelleborg away from the drop zone so they’ll be pivotal so Trelleborg’s display today.
It’ll be interesting to see how Hacken react to their 5-1 humiliation at home by IFK Goteborg last match because they do generally have a good record against the bigger Allsvenskan sides due to their battling nature. Although IFK are unequestionably the force in Goteborg, Hacken aren’t used to being on the receiving end of such results so I don’t know what to expect from them today. However, one thing that Hacken are consistent with at the moment is conceding goals. They’ve leaked ten goals in their last five Allsvenskan outings and although they’re not shy in front of goal themselves, the solid defence of Trelleborg is going to take some beating and I’m not sure that Hacken will have the mental strength to play their usual game today, which should give the hosts the advantage today.
Trelleborg know how to score against Hacken; they scored two past them at home last season and two in Goteborg earlier this season, although they lost that game 4-2. Trelleborg are traditionally strong at home and Hacken are about average away from home, depending on which Hacken side turns up. However, on the back of such a hefty defeat and facing a very well-organised Trelleborg outfit, I can’t help but feel that the odds on the hosts are too generous today so my recommendation is the home win at 27/20.
Verdict: Trelleborg to win at 27/20.
Vaduz vs Lugano – away win at 6/5.
I appreciate that Lugano aren’t performing as well as they used to under their new manager but their results and goalscoring still look as strong as ever so I have to consider this bet as good value today. Lugano have won all three Challenge League games so far this season with an average of three goals scored per game and just one conceded on the way so momentum favours the promotion favourites. They’ve not had a great test to gain that record, to be fair, with their only mildly difficult game being their home game with Kriens, which they won 2-0. Vaduz are the type of side that could derail Lugano if in-form but Vaduz have been so poor this season that I can’t take them seriously just yet. They were destroyed 4-1 at home by a rampant Servette in their opening Challenge League game, lost 2-1 at a good Schaffhausen side, and then had their third game postponed due to not having enough players fit to play in thee game. They’re not missing as many players now with just Ritter, Fischer, and Sabia set to miss this game through injury but important midfielder Burgmeier is suspended for this game, which is a blow for the Liechtensteinian hosts. Lugano have a full squad to choose from barring midfielder Staubli so they have every chance of getting something here and with Vaduz in such poor physical and mental shape at the moment, I have to side with Lugano today.
As a final word of caution – Lugano have a bad record at the Rheinpark Stadion and indeed they tend to struggle with Vaduz in general. Vaduz are a good side; they just aren’t showing it yet. However, my bet today includes Lugano taking advantage of that today so I think odds of 6/5 on the away win are fair enough and could be good value.
Verdict: Lugano to win at 6/5.
Bursaspor vs Konyaspor – under 2.5 goals at 21/20.
Bursaspor have to enter this season with an entirely new mentality and I’m not sure they’re going to be able to manage it. When you win a title as they did last year, you’re then the enemy of every club in the division who will fight to take any points off you. Bursaspor showed their lack of experience in that position as an experienced Trabzonspor swept them away 3-0 in the Turkish Super Cup lately. Bursaspor still possess a very good squad but they’re facing a Konyaspor side that are coached by Dogan, who is a notoriously defensive coach! I’ll be surprised if Konyaspor leave anyone in attack as they seek to do anything but lose here, so Bursaspor are going to have to adjust to being favourites a lot more now than they used to be.
Bursaspor brought in the necessary quota of players in the transfer window to bolster their squad for their UEFA Champions League campaign, the most notable of which were Insua, Wederson, and Stepanov – the first is a playmaker and the other two are defenders. They also brought in Steinert in attack, which is interesting as he has the pace to be potentially very good. Bursaspor parted with Czech defender Zapotocny to Besiktas JK, which is a blow, but their defensive signings should cover his loss ultimately. Bursaspor miss new signing Argentinian midfielder Federico Insua and important holding midfielder Huseyin Cimsir for this game through injury but should be able to cope without them against a resilient but fairly impotent Konyaspor side.
All in all, I’m expectin a low-scoring game between the reigning champions and the newcomers. Bursaspor have the quality advantage but they’ll be treated as if they were enemies by Konyaspor so this should be a real test for them today. I ultimately expect Bursaspor to win the game but I can’t overlook the generous odds on under 2.5 goals today.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 21/20.
Accumulator fodder:
Lokomotiv Sofia, Otelul Galati.
Recommended bets:
Otelul Galati and Lugano at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Independiente vs Argentinos Juniors (6) 1-1
Austrian Liga 1:
Lustenau vs SCR Altach (6)
Bulgarian A PFG:
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Kaliakra (8) under 2.5 goals
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Usti nad Labem vs Teplice (4) 0-1 (game actually played at Teplice)
Brno vs Mlada Boleslav (6) over 2.5 goals
Danish Superligaen:
Midtylland vs Aalborg BK (5) 1-1
English Premier League:
Manchester United vs Newcastle United (7) 1-0
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
B68 Toftir vs EB/Streymur (6) 1-1
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Haka Valkeakoski vs Tampere United (5) 1-2
VPS Vaasa vs Jaro Pietarsaari (5) 0-0
IFK Mariehamn vs AC Oulu (7) over 2.5 goals
Finnish Ykkonen:
Viikingit Helsinki vs OPS Oulu (7) under 2.5 goals
French Ligue 2:
Metz vs Troyes (3) under 2.5 goals
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
Fylkir Reykjavik vs Valur Reykjavik (5) over 2.5 goals
Breidablik Kopavogur vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar (5) 1-1
Haukar Hafnarfjordur vs Stjarnan Gardabaer (6) 1-1
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Go Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam (6)
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Legia Warsaw vs Cracovia Krakow (6) both sides to score
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Olhanense vs Vitoria Guimaraes (5) 0-1
Romanian Liga:
Otelul Galati vs Targu Mures (8) 2-0
Steaua Bucharest vs Victoria Branesti (5) 1-1
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Trelleborg vs BK Hacken Goteborg (6) 2-1
Atvidaberg vs Halmstad (4) 0-1, draw no bet
Mjallby Solvesborg vs Orebro (7) 1-1
Swedish Superettan:
Landskrona BoIS vs Orgryte (6) over 2.5 goals
Swiss Challenge League:
Vaduz vs Lugano (7) both sides to score
Turkish Super Lig:
Istanbul BB vs Kayserispor (6) 1-1
Bursaspor vs Konyaspor (7) under 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free bettting tips!