Levadia Tallinn vs Flora Tallinn
FreeA big congratulations to France for deciding that the only way to boost their country’s morale after a depressing World Cup was to suspend every “French” player that went to that World Cup ahead of important European Championship Qualifiers in the forthcoming months. I didn’t think I’d be able to find anyone as stupid as the Nigerians, who attempted to have the national football team itself banned for two years, but the French have proven me wrong by doing this. Honestly, how fucking stupid can you be? France’s national team is now going to be Benzema versus whoever they’re playing!
Anyway, moving on from the amusement – good news – I’m back to 100% on the site now!
However, some bad news – I’m getting a bit tired of seeing an awful lot of unnecessary shit on the comments section. People are posting things that are utterly irrelevant and/or stupid so I’m going to start deleting things that clog it up as it not only covers the good posts from people but it also discourages other people from posting. Therefore, before posting comments in future, please ask yourself if the comment is useful, accurate, or beneficial – if the answer is “yes” to any of the above then post it. If it’s not, then don’t post it, or I’ll delete it. I don’t mind the banter – I encourage it even – and posting your bets/previews/tips (even for non-football sports) is also fine. However, there has been a distinct rise in other crap that isn’t required and I’m a bit tired of trawling through some of it so I’ll be deleting anything that has no purpose on the site from today onwards. And yes, Toffeeboy – your game with the other guys is fine too!
Also, although this is quite a rare instance, please don’t ask people on here what you should bet on. By posting on this site, I’m going to boldly assume that you’ve managed to turn the computer on and connect to the Internet all by yourself so I’m also going to assume that you can make your own bets! By all means ask for advice or post your thoughts but any posts I see that are along the lines of “what should I bet on today?” and “does anyone like ‘team x’ to win?” will be deleted due to a severe lack of point and interest – grow some balls!
Also – I’ve enforced some league changes that are applicable from monday onwards, which are as follows:
Leagues removed:
Greek B Ethniki
Portuguese Liga de Honra
Leagues added:
Chilean Primera Division
Peruvian Primera Division
Paraguayan Primera Division
Polish 1st Liga
Now all that’s sorted, let’s move on to today’s previewed game, which is the Tallinn derby in the Meistriliiga between Levadia and Flora. We’re climbing aboard a little later than I’d have liked but unfortunately that’s the way it goes sometimes!
Levadia Tallinn are entering this derby on the back of a courageous but unfortunate 3-2 defeat in Hungary against giants Debreceni VSC, a result which sees the Estonians exit the UEFA Champions League because of the Hungarian champions for the second year in a row. However, they can take comfort from their stout displays in both legs and that coupled with the motivation of the Tallinn derby should see Levadia on fire today. They’ve already won eight out of ten at home this season whilst averaging scoring nearly three goals per game. The addition of Nunes from Nomme Kalju bolsters their ailing attack at a time when it needed bolstering. Levadia have scored eight goals in their last two Meistriliiga games and have won their last four home games against Flora consecutively. Levadia are the much better side nowadays and it’s starting to show an awful lot too.
However, the reason that the odds have nose-dived isn’t because of the above information – it’s because of the massive behind-the-scenes problems at Flora currently. Key players Abasidze, Anniste, Kasimir, Allas, and Konsa have all left the club after the club revealed that they had massive financial problems. As a result, Flora have had to call upon “B” squad youngsters such as Mosnikov, Masitsev, and erratic goalkeeper Pedok. Flora are simply not ready for such a big occasion and I think they’re going to get their backsides whipped, in all honesty. The players are bitching behind each others’ backs and everyone is blaming everyone else for the club’s problems. Flora have only just been able to name a twenty-two man squad for this game due to their promoted youngsters but make no mistake – they really should struggle today.
The home win in itself is a bargain at these odds – I expect it to go through the floor when the above information becomes public knowledge, particularly as Levadia are already the better side. It may even be worth looking at the -1.75 goal handicap at 2/1 although that’s naturally much more risky!
Verdict: Levadia Tallinn to win at 13/20.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
I’d avoid the Norwegian card today and look towards Belarus and Brazil as those two leagues appear to boast the most value today. You can tell the leagues are all coming back anyway – look at how many value tips I found below (in no particular order):
LASK Linz vs Austria Vienna – away win at 39/50.
After my monumental cock-up yesterday by mistaking SV Ried for LASK Linz, I’m pleased to announce that I can now officially recognise who LASK Linz are. Duh!
Anyway, the information applies as yesterday – LASK Linz have no options in attack anymore, only ancient Maryleb and former Bayern Munich hitman Alexander Zickler. They used to be a classic “over 2.5 goals” team but their only contribution to that nowadays is conceding excessively as they just don’t score. They played Wiener Neustadt last match and although Wiener are good in attack, especially at home, they’re still susceptible in defence and yet LASK were unable to exploit that due to one-dimensional attacking. LASK have real problems at the moment and could face relegation from the Bundesliga this season if they’re not careful as their squad isn’t good enough or deep enough to stay in the division, in my opinion.
I fancy Austria Vienna to have a genuine shot at the Bundesliga title this season. They’ve still got a good, strong squad, and although they don’t tend to score enough goals, they’re still very much a threat. However, consider that rivals Salzburg have lost a limb in Marc Janko and that bitter rivals Rapid Vienna have also made significant losses – you then have to look at Austria Vienna, who had a good campaign last year. It’s worth keeping in mind, either way. I fancy Vienna today even though they have a European game in a few days time. They were efficient in their first game of the season and I expect more of the same from them today, even though they’ll undoubtedly rest players for this game. I simply have no faith in LASK Linz anymore and I’ll be surprised if they take anything from a tough game with Austria Vienna.
The odds would be a real bargain if Austria Vienna fielded their first-team but as that’s unlikely, the odds aren’t as good as I’d hoped. However, there should still be value there on the basis that LASK have problems at the moment so we should see a fairly narrow but convincing away win today, particularly as they’ve won two out of their last three trips here even when LASK had a decent side to call upon.
Verdict: Austria Vienna to win at 39/50.
Naftan Novopolotsk vs Belshina – home win at 3/2.
This is a definite risk but the odds are tempting me to get involved in the action here. Naftan shouldn’t be at such generous odds to beat anyone at home other than BATE Borisov, Dinamo Minsk, and possibly Shakhtyor Soligorsk on their day. Naftan are a good side, especially at home, and although their form this year has been very poor, they have improved in recent times. It’s a shame for the hosts that the mid-season break occurred in Belarus when it did as they were gathering momentum and scoring goals again. Still, Naftan managed to travel to face Slavia Mozyr in the Belarusian Cup just a few days ago and won so I’m taking a risk and assuming Naftan’s momentum will carry on. If so, then they’ve got a very good chance of beating anyone at home, let alone newly-promoted, over-achieving Belshina! Although it was a few years ago now, Belshina did in fact lose their last two visits to Novopolotsk and now face an even better Naftan side today than they did then so they’re in for a rough ride.
I do have to take my hat off to Belshina, however. They’ve been superb this season due to resilient defending and clinical finishing. With the squad that they have currently, they’re not good enough to be where they are in the Vysshaya Liga table. Unlike Naftan Novopolotsk, the minnows will have been very glad for the mid-season break because they were entering a very rough patch where fatigue from the long season with a small squad began to take effect, meaning Belshina went three games without a victory, losing twice and conceding six goals along the way – two very un-Belshina characteristics. The break may have galvanished them again for another arduous half of the season or they may enter this game in a rather rusty fashion, which is obviously the one I’d prefer! Belshina won 3-1 at Lida a few days ago in the Belarusian Cup so they do have something to bring into this game but unlike Naftan (who I already know are good enough to do the business), I need to see which Belshina turns up in the second-half of the season, hence the risk element to this bet.
Despite the risk, however, there’s always terrific value on Naftan to win at home and I’m happy to re-open that particular alleyway of pleasure, so to speak! Naftan can do the business if they turn up whether Belshina do or not but a rusty Belshina is certainly far more welcome, particularly as Naftan aren’t fully in their stride at the moment and don’t score many when they are! I do fancy Naftan today though as they’re a far better side than the table portrays and today is the opportune moment for them to pick up where they left off before the mid-season break and start climbing the table again.
Verdict: Naftan Novopolotsk to win at 3/2.
Neman Grodno vs Minsk – away win at 6/5.
Neman Grodno are the traditional Belarusian “stopper” side – that’s the only reason that they’ve lost just three times in nine home games this season, as the fact that they’ve won none of those games indicates all too well. Neman Grodno’s problem is that they simply don’t score goals. Nobody has scored less goals at home than they have this season (just three in nine games!) and although Neman don’t concede many either, the result tends to be rather fatal when they do concede because they’re generally not good enough to turn the game around. I’m choosing not to pay attention to Neman’s 5-1 victory a few days ago as it was a cup game and they were facing a very poor Gomelzheldortrans side. Neman are now facing a good side so they could and really should be caught out by Minsk today although it’s certainly worth noting that Neman haven’t lost at home to Minsk in their two games since the two Minsk clubs formed one big club so the onus is on the visitors today.
However, that’s exactly how the visitors have preferred it so far this season, approaching each game with great gusto and goals galore. Minsk have impressed me an awful lot this year because of their attacking nature and as a result of that style, they’ve now won five out of nine away games in the Vysshaya Liga this season and have averaged scoring nearly two goals per away game, which is the best record in the division currently. Minsk have beaten better opponents than Neman Grodno away from home this season so they’re certainly capable of beating the defensive hosts today. I won’t read much into Minsk’s cup win mid-week either but all the same – a 7-0 win at Slutsksakhar is still quite impressive considering how long they’d gone without playing a competitive game.
All in all, I can see two outcomes in this game – a goalless stalemate or a fairly comfortable away win and I’m leaning towards the latter because Minsk score a lot of goals in general. Grodno don’t score enough to concern me so the odds on the away win are good enough to take a chance on today.
Verdict: Minsk to win at 6/5.
Dnepr Mogilev vs BATE Borisov – away win at 1/2.
Both of these sides competed in European competition mid-week and BATE are competing next week so this bet isn’t as cast-iron as I’d like it to be. However, the fundamental reasoning behind the selection is that BATE are simply a lot better than Dnepr and also have a much bigger squad, whereas Dnepr’s is very small and thus stretched at the moment following their participation in European football. Their game at home to BATE Borisov is their fourth in ten days and they don’t have the squad to deal with it, particularly with a trip to Norway thrown into the middle of that run, so expect a very tired Dnepr side today. BATE will undoubtedly rest players as they qualified for the latter stages of the UEFA Champions League and have a trip to Israel next week but in all honesty, I fancy BATE’s second string much more than a tired Dnepr first-team. BATE have beaten Dnepr in seven out of their last ten meetings at either ground and if Dnepr weren’t so tired and stretched at the moment then I wouldn’t touch this game because they’r good in Mogilev. However, with the above in mind, I have to favour BATE and consider 1/2 on the away win acceptable value as a result.
Verdict: BATE Borisov to win at 1/2.
Santos vs Sao Paulo – home win at 3/4.
I don’t like touching samba derbies like this but given how woeful Sao Paulo have played this season, I have to take a chance on Santos. Admittedly, Santos themselves have been poor in recent games but they’re at least reliable at home. Sao Paulo have been a frustrating giant of Serie A in recent times in that they’ve boasted arguably the best overall side in the division without the necessary finishers to do the damage. Sadly for Sao Paulo, they’ve now lost some of their better players and they’re still not scoring goals so they have a lot of problems. A shocking draw at home to minnows Gremio Prudente last match did nothing to convince me that they’re even remotely close to being able to win this game tonight. I appreciate that derbies tend to invoke increased motivation and passion for both clubs and with that in mind, there will almost certainly be red cards in this game tonight. However, Santos have a much better record in head-to-heads against Sao Paulo than their visitors to do in recent times with Santos having won three derbies in a row, despite two of them being at Sao Paulo’s ground. Santos have only lost once at home to Sao Paulo in their last four meetings and ironically, that win for Sao Paulo was the only derby that they’ve scored in from their last four trips to face Santos. I don’t see that record changing today – the big question is whether Santos rediscover their goalscoring form or not but with the prospect of a derby ahead of them, you have to favour the atypically-potent hosts to overcome Sao Paulo today with decent odds of 3/4, especially as Barcelona starlet Keirrison has now joined the Santos ranks on loan.
Verdict: Santos to win at 3/4.
Cruzeiro vs Gremio – home win at 7/10.
I’m surprised the odds on a Cruzeiro win aren’t shorter here, to be blunt. They’ve not had a great season in comparison to the past couple of campaigns that they’ve had but they’re still a force, especially at home. Goalscoring is a bit of an enemy of theirs at the moment but two wins and two draws from four Serie A home games so far this season demonstrates their ability to control games so all they need to do is convert their chances to find the wins that they need. Few sides score against Cruzeiro – their defence is their main strength at the moment – and Cruzeiro played well against Fluminense in their last away game but were unfortunately beaten 1-0. However, Cruzeiro haven’t conceded a goal in their last three home games consecutively so I don’t envision a similar scoreline today, particularly with one of the worst travelling sides in Brazil coming to play them – Gremio. Barring last season’s encounter, Cruzeiro have won this fixture seven times in a row, partially because they’re a good side and partially because Gremio are atrocious away from home. Cruzeiro will have to work to score goals here but Gremio’s away record of three defeats and two draws from five Serie A away games this season can only encourage the hosts to change things around tonight. Gremio are actually in the bottom four in the Serie A table now and have lost three out of their last four on the road, shipping ten goals along the way. If there’s any side you want to face at home when you’re struggling to score then it’s Gremio and with no wins in four games, it’s hard to see Gremio doing anything at all against Cruzeiro tonight, which is why I find value in the home win as I find 7/10 a bit too long for the home win on this game.
Verdict: Cruzeiro to win at 7/10.
Ceara vs Palmeiras – lay Ceara at 1/2.
There is only one point behind this selection but it is a big one – Ceara’s manager moved to Vasco da Gama of late and Ceara have looked a shadow of their former selves since it happened. They were extremely effective under Gusmao and you can see what he’s already started doing for Vasco da Gama. Ceara haven’t won in four consecutive games and the rigidity of the side is beginning to fade. Ceara’s home record was always flattering as the newly-promoted side weren’t and aren’t good enough to maintain it but I expect it to be shattered soon enough and why not tonight? Palmeiras have their problems and do struggle away from home, especially with goalscoring, but they’ve scored three in their last two away games and have scored nine goals in their last four games so why shouldn’t they upset the odds tonight? Ceara are tough to play against at home, irrespective of who is in charge, as it’s a very intimidating area in general. However, Palmeiras should be able to match or even better the number of goals that impotent Ceara manage to score tonight with some ease because Ceara aren’t at their best and rarely score when they are. You shouldn’t be able to give Palmeiras an X2 at 1/2 against an inferior side, basically, so I’m happy to lay the hosts today as their new manager hasn’t settled the Ceara players as well as Gusmao did.
Verdict: Lay Ceara at 1/2.
Real Cartagena vs Boyaca Chico – home win at 31/20.
I can’t shed too much light on this one other than that Real Cartagena are simply the better side. Boyaca Chico did well in sporadic bursts on the road last season because they’re a true Colombian side, gritty to the last man and don’t concede many as a result. However, the bare bones of it is that Real Cartagena are a lot better side than Boyaca Chico and I don’t expect the visitors to have enough momentum to use their “we’re unbeatable/eleven men behind the ball” tactics effectively against what I can only describe as a superior side. Cartagena lost their opening Clausura game against a very good Once Caldas Manizales away from home whereas visitors Boyaca Chico overcame Cortulua 1-0 at home. If those two results have somehow contributed to the magnificent odds of 31/20 on the home win then long may it continue! Long may Chico beat sides not good enough to be in the division and fool bookies! I truly cannot understand these odds – Cartagena have won this fixture for two seasons running and even won at Chico in the Apertura of this campaign. Cartagena should be much shorter tonight so I’m all over the home win like a rash here!
Verdict: Real Cartagena to win at 31/20.
Slaven Koprivnica vs Sibenik – home win at 3/4.
This should be short and sweet! Slaven are always good at home in the Prva Liga – fact. They’re a very good side in general although they had a bizarre campaign last year in which they didn’t perform to their true potential. Make no mistake though – Slaven are one of the better Croatian sides and have a good opportunity to show it again today. The odds on show are taking into account Sibenik’s over-achieving displays last year but realistically, Slaven shouldn’t be longer than 1/2 here. Sibenik are decent enough defensively but they’ve sold Zec, their best striker, and enter this game on the back of a 3-0 pounding from Cypriot outfit Anorthosis Famagusta, a result which has dumped Sibenik out of the UEFA Europa League. Their manager resigned following that defeat so Sibenik have real problems at the moment. For me, this game has home win written all over it as a result, just as it has been for three out of the last four Prva Liga seasons and the price is far too generous to ignore as a result.
Verdict: Slaven Koprivnica to win at 3/4.
Banik Ostrava vs Slavia Prague – away win at 2/1.
This is a very big risk as Slavia aren’t what they were but at 2/1, I have to take a chance. Why? Well, Banik Ostrava made a few losses over the summer player-wise and although they’ve brought replacements in, they’re yet to gel properly, hence Banik’s failure to score for two consecutive games now. Slavia have quite a good record in Ostrava, althuogh that’s largely because of their excellent past. Slavia haven’t made any spectacular signings during the transfer window although it’s good to see yet another Jarolim at Slavia Prague, as usual! Slavia don’t have the firepower to interest me in backing them nowadays but at 2/1 against a Banik side that will undoubtedly be looking at their trip to Belarus to face Dnepr Mogilev next week is definitely worthy of consideration – my only concern is whether Slavia can muster up a goal or not.
Verdict: Slavia Prague to win at 2/1.
Nordsejalland vs SonderjyskE – home win at 7/10.
I wouldn’t have touched this game last season but after SonderjyskE sold their best defender Ottesen Jonsson to FC Copenhagen, they don’t look anywhere near the defensive force that they were and face the very real threat of relegation this year as they’ve not got a good enough setup to guarantee themselves safety in the Superligaen this season. Consider their opening Superligaen game this season, for instance – SonderjyskE lost 3-1 at home to an FC Copenhagen side that admitteldy are the superior side but an FC Copenhagen side that had their attention elsewhere at the time. For three consecutive meetings, SonderjyskE had never conceded three goals at home to FC Copenhagen. Indeed, the only side that scored more than two against SonderjyskE away from home last season was Brondby because Ottesen brought a stability to that SonderjyskE defence a strength that they no longer have so I’m concerned for the minnows, not only today but for the season as a whole. SonderjyskE are now even more vulnerable on the road as a result and facing a potent Nordsjaelland side that has beaten them in back-to-back meetings now will not be a trip that they anticipate eagerly. Nordsjaelland smashed four goals past Silkeborg in their opening game and have scored dozens of goals in friendlies so you have to favour them to set upon a shattered SonderjyskE defence today and to have a lot of joy too. Nordsjaelland wouldn’t be worth 7/10 against a SonderjyskE side with Ottesen in it – without him, this is a bargain price.
Verdict: Nordsjaelland to win at 7/10.
Aalborg BK vs Brondby – home win at 3/2.
Aalborg got off to a great start in the Superligaen by overcoming newcomers Lyngby 4-2 away from home. This was pleasing for me not only because it demonstrated the potential of Aalborg (the potential that they had lost for a while) but because they scored goals, something they’ve not done consistently for some time. Aalborg are more than capable of keeping a side out against them but now that they’ve added firepower to their ranks, they look a title contender again – if they maintain it. Aalborg will approach this game with confidence and momentum as a result of their excellent start to their Superligaen campaign although they won’t be as pleased that it’s giants Brondby that they’re facing, a side that they’ve not beaten at home in their last three attempts.
However, Brondby’s interest will be on the hellish trip to Podgorica in Montenegro next week in their UEFA Europa League Qualifier. Brondby will undoubtedly be resting players as a result and their last away game whilst resting players saw them lose 3-2 at Randers so they’re certainly capable of losing against a difficult Aalborg side today. Brondby are no pushovers and shouldn’t be treated as such today but with the above in mind, you have to favour the hosts as the odds are generous enough to take a chance on.
Verdict: Aalborg BK to win at 3/2.
Inter Turku vs Jaro Pietarsaari – home win at 21/20.
Inter Turku are up and down so much at the moment that I’ve given up on the momentum angle with them. Their ability is there for all to see but they appear to have added frantic goalscoring and heavy conceding to their usual boring 1-0 wins so we have a very unpredictable but talented side as a result. However, they always remain a force in Turku and have demonstrated that even during their difficult run, managing to keep three consecutive clean sheets at home and having won two of those games, the most recent of which was against title contenders FC Honka Espoo. Inter will have a lot of work to do today to take apart an in-form Jaro Pietarsaari side that have won four out of their last five games. Jaro are finally fulfilling the potential that they threatened to earlier in the season but had previously failed to do so. Jaro have kept clean sheets in all four of those wins with the only blemish on their record being their 1-0 defeat at home against in-form KuPS Kuopio. Therefore, we should see a very good game between two good sides today, although Inter are still the better side. Interestingly enough, however – Inter haven’t conceded against Jaro in their last five meetings, winning each occasion 1-0 with one exception, which was a 2-0 win. Three of those wins were away from home and two were in Turku. For some reason, history has more importance in the Veikkausliiga outcomes than in any other league that I’ve come across so I’m going with a home win for under-achieving Inter Turku today at good odds.
Verdict: Inter Turku to win at 21/20.
PK-35 Helsinki vs HJK II – home win at 57/100.
These odds are a little more generous than they should be, although not excessively so as short odds in the Ykkonen are few and far between for a reason – there’s not much quality difference. However, PK-35 are one of the few sides with ability in the Ykkonen and on the back of four straight wins they should be treated as such too. They’ve scored a massive thirteen goals along the way, which is an average of over three goals per game. HJK II have one of the weakest defences in the division – only the bottom three clubs have leaked more goals than HJK’s second string – and they’ve leaked nine goals in four consecutive away games now so they’re in a bad place at the moment, particularly as they face a superior side today. HJK II haven’t kept a clean sheet in their past eleven attempts because they’re poor at the back so in-form PK-35 should have a lot of fun today and thus there is value on the home win here as in another division, I’d be surprised to see this selection at longer than 2/5.
Verdict: PK-35 Helsinki to win at 57/100.
TPV Tampere vs RoPS Rovaniemi – away win at 11/20.
TPV have played well of late and have kept three clean sheets so momentum is strong the hosts at the moment. However, despite their burst of momentum, the fact remains that they’re a very poor side and they’re facing easily the best side in the Ykkonen. TPV miss striker Eranen through suspension today so it’s hard to see their fairly impotent attack having any joy today, even despite RoPS occasional defensive laxity. RoPS took a beating at Viikingit Helsinki last match, one of the few sides capable of beating them in this division. It had to happen at somepoint but I don’t see RoPS’ stride being interrupted too much by that result, to be honest – they’re still a massively superior side in this division and they’re playing a side that they could comfortably beat by two or three goals today if they put their minds to it. Much like the above preview, the odds are longer than they would be in another division but there’s a gigantic gap in quality that favours the visitors and the odds show value as a result of that fact.
Verdict: RoPS Rovaniemi to win at 11/20.
FH Hafnarfjordur vs Haukar Hafnarfjordur – lay FH Hafnarfjordur at 11/5.
Haukar’s stifling tactics work so much better on the road than they do it at home that it’s unbelievable, especially considering the small size of Iceland. They’ve played six away games in the Urvalsdeild and have drawn five and lost just once along the way. They truly “park the bus” and it very nearly paid off in the first Hafnarfjordur derby of the season at their more illustrious neighbours FH where only a very late goal gave the reigning champions a 1-0 win. FH haven’t convinced on a consistent basis this season with shoddy defending and inconsistent scoring patterns and this is the exact kind of game in which they could come unstuck. FH are the better of these two sides by some distance so I can understand the 1/4 price on the home win but laying the hosts today represents good value to me, particularly with FH having only won 50% of their home games in the Urvalsdeild this season and Haukar unbeaten in four consecutive games.
Verdict: Lay FH Hafnarfjordur at 11/5.
St.Patrick’s Athletic vs Sporting Fingal – home win at evens.
Sporting Fingal are a hard side to beat hence just one defeat in eleven away games this season. They owe this record to their mean defence so I wouldn’t take them lightly today. However, what I would point out is that this is their fourth game in ten days and they just don’t have the strength in-depth to deal with the pressures and demands of such constant football. The mid-week defeat against Maritimo Funchal of Portugal will have hurt them although they’ll have been pleased at pushing the islanders as far as they did, eventually losing 3-2. There’s simply no denying how tired Fingal are looking as their defeat against Drogheda at home in their last league game indicated all too clearly and they’re facing one of just two sides in this division that are considerably better than they are so things don’t look too rosy for the visitors ahead of this game. Hosts St.Pat’s have already won eight out of eleven at home this season and average scoring nearly two goals per home game, which is one of the best records in the division. They also boast the meanest defence in the division at home so you have to favour the hosts here, particularly with three wins from four games and their eyes firmly fixed upon this game. I’d be surprised to see anything other than a home win here and although I can appreciate why the odds are as good as they are, I still think there’s value in the home win today.
Verdict: St.Patrick’s Athletic to win at evens.
Jurmala vs Jelgava – home win at 3/4.
Jurmala are some distance better than Jelgava in the Virsliga but have the most bizarre home record I’ve seen for some time with five defeats from five games whilst boasting five wins from seven away games. It simply doesn’t make sense! Jurmala are a mid-table side in the Virsliga but they’re still better than newly-promoted Jelgava and it should show today with their first home win of the season. I can understand the tentative odds from the bookies on this game because it does look odd from the outside but Jelgava have lost three on the road and drawn twice whilst leaking over two goals per away game so Jurmala have all the impetus that they need to win this one today and cast off the shackles of their bizarre home record, particularly with three wins from their last four games giving them the necessary momentum today. Jelgava are without a win in three games and have lost their last two consecutively so we really should see a home win here. I’d be pleased to see odds like this on an average season for Jurmala so I’m not going to overlook them despite a somewhat extraordinary season for the hosts.
Verdict: Jurmala to win at 3/4.
Universitatea Cluj vs Steaua Bucharest – away win at 7/10.
There have been a lot of improvements made by giants Steaua Bucharest over the transfer window and they’re a lot more stable and reliable in comparison so last year and have a good chance of winning the title this year, in my opinion. Atypically, their name “gives them a chance” of the title but I believe it genuinely this year – they’ve got the ability and the stability to make it happen. Returning to today’s game – they’re simply a better side than today’s hosts and should be able to control the game without any great difficulty and should edge it by a goal or two at decent odds.
Verdict: Steaua Bucharest to win at 7/10.
Sibir Novosibirsk vs Lokomotiv Moscow – away win at 17/20.
Lokomotiv have disappointed on the road this season with just one win in seven games but their actual quality is undeniable. Any side with the talented Olexandr Aliev in it is always a threat and he plays well then Loko tend to play well too. Lokomotiv’s problem on the road is not scoring enough as their defence tends to be fairly competent. Lokomotiv have their best opportunity so far to improve their dismal away form by taking on a Sibir side that has already lost four out of seven home games this season. Sibir have scored a lot of goals at home but any side that averages shipping over two goals per home game will have problems which is precisely why Sibir are in the relegation zone on the back of three games without a win, losing their last two consecutively. They even lost 5-3 at Spartak Moscow mid-week, which might not look a particularly poor result on paper but considering Spartak weren’t playing well and operate entirely on the counter-attack at the moment, it then becomes a poor result for Sibir. No side has conceded as many times as Sibir have this season which is primarily why I think they’re destined for relegation. Morale is lowering whereas the “Lokomotiv” Moscow side are on the back of four Premier League games without defeat, winning their last three games consecutively. Lokomotiv destroyed Alaniya 3-0 last match at home and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them destroy Sibir in a similar fashion because they’re definitely capable of it and are playing well enough to do so at the moment. Loko’s home-grown striker Dmitry Sychev is in-form too so you have to favour Lokomotiv today. The reason I’ve picked this game is because with the above in mind and on a quality ratio, Lokomotiv are worthy of 1/2 to win this game so there should be value in the away win today.
Verdict: Lokomotiv Moscow to win at 17/20.
Kalmar vs Djurgarden – home win at 3/5.
Kalmar didn’t have a good start to their Allsvenskan campaign but the fact is that they’re unbeaten in fifteen games in all competitions now and are really looking their old selves again. They beat Djurgardens 2-0 away from home before departing to Moldova to coolly despatch Dacia Chisinau by the same scoreline and I expect them to return to Sweden and achieve a similar scoreline today. Kalmar’s home record isn’t favourable overall because of their dismal start but barring their 0-0 draw with Dacia Chisinau at home last match, Kalmar had won their previous five home games in a row (albeit the Gefle game via extra time) so they’re very much in-form. Kalmar do have a big game with Bulgarian giants Levski Sofia next week but they’re at home so they won’t need to rest many players, if indeed any. Aside from that, if they can’t beat a Djurgardens side that cannot score away from home and a side that has lost five out of seven on the road already this season then Kalmar really do have problems! I don’t care who Bergstand fields for this game – this has to end in a home win and I think the odds make it a worthwhile bet too as an in-form Kalmar should be a bit shorter than they are.
Verdict: Kalmar to win at 3/5.
Neuchatel Xamax vs Thun – home win at 19/20.
I was impressed with Neuchatel Xamax’s display against Grasshoppers Zurich in their opening game and Neuchatel are usually a reliable side at home so I fancy them today. They started their Super League campaign off well, fucking up most of our bets along the way but still in impressive fashion nonetheless. Consideing that they finished third from the bottom of the Super League table last year, Neuchatel only lost six out of eighteen at home, winning eight along the way. Neuchatel’s problem is not defending well enough – they rarely find goals hard to come by. Only the eventual top five of the Super League last year scored more than Neuchatel did at home so bear that in mind today. Neuchatel are hosting a newly-promoted Thun side that claimed an invaluable draw on their opening day at home to Young Boys Bern but now face a stern test against experienced campaigners Neuchatel Xamax and it’s one I don’t think they can deal with. Fair enough – Young Boys Bern are a better side than Neuchatel but they lost their best striker in summer and haven’t sorted a replacement out properly so I can understand Young Boys Bern slipping up against a side that were eager to impress. However, Thun aren’t playing giants now – they’re playing resilient hosts who know how to defend their own keep. Thun’s defence isn’t good enough away from home so for me, the hosts are too close to evens to be ignored today as they are a better side than Thun.
Verdict: Neuchatel Xamax to win at 19/20.
St.Gallen vs Bellinzona – home win at 3/4.
Both of these sides suffered disappointing starts to their respective Super League campaigns with St.Gallen losing 4-0 at an impressive Luzern and Bellinzona losing 2-0 at home to Sion. Strangely enough, I view Bellinzona’s defeat as the worst of the two despite being a lessened deficit because Bellinzona are a weak side and should be doing more at home to avoid the dreaded drop but they just don’t look capable. Losing to an increasingly good Luzern side is acceptable, particularly away from home, but St.Gallen at least tend to make their home results count. Bellinzona are not only a really poor side but they’re absolutely shocking on the road. They actually lost fifteen out of eighteen away games last season whilst shipping nearly three goals per away game so I severely doubt we’ll see them in the Super League next season – there simply isn’t anyone as bad as they are left in the Super League. St.Gallen scored against Bellinzona in all four meetings last season, winning twice and drawing twice, so they’re capable of doing damage. St.Gallen’s flaw is not scoring enough but an atrocious Bellinzona side really should make 3/4 on the home win something of a gift today.
Verdict: St.Gallen to win at 3/4.
Vaduz vs Servette – away win at 51/20.
I don’t quite understand the odds for this game. Servette were utterly fantastic towards the end of their campaign last season and beat just about everyone on an unbelievable run that saw them rise from relegation candidates to a potential promoted side. Servette do belong in the Super League so part of me hopes they get promoted this year. Either way, Servette are still a force and should prove that today. Vaduz are a decent enough side but simply don’t score enough goals. This is their fourth game in ten days and they’re not good enough to boast a squad that can withstand that kind of pressure, particularly as their last game a few days ago was a tough test at home to Danes Brondby. Vaduz are a tough nut to crack but Servette are a lot better than the odds on this game suggest. I had hoped to be able to lay Vaduz but the odds aren’t as good as I’d like so I’m going to go for the bold but interesting away win at 51/20, particularly as Servette won here last year and Vaduz haven’t beaten Servette since 2007.
Verdict: Servette to win at 51/20.
Accumulator fodder:
Nordsjaelland, Corinthians, Slaven Koprivnica, Emelec Guayaquil, PK-35 Helsinki, RoPS Rovaniemi, Skonto Riga, FK Ventspils, Dinaburg Daugavpils, Suduva Marijampole, Karpaty Lviv, Shakhtar Donetsk.
Recommended bets:
Aalborg BK, Levadia Tallinn, and BATE Borisov at 4/1.
PK-35 Helsinki, RoPS Rovaniemi, and St.Patrick’s Athletic at 4/1.
Suduva Marijampole, Kalmar, and Naftan Novopolotsk at 4/1.
Lokomotiv Moscow and Steaua Bucharest at 2/1.
Santos, Cruzeiro, Corinthians, and lay Ceara at 5/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
Austrian Bundesliga:
LASK Linz vs Austria Vienna (7) 0-2
Rapid Vienna vs Wiener Neustadt (6) over 2.5 goals
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Dinamo Minsk vs Shakhtyor Soligorsk (6) 1-0
Naftan Novopolotsk vs Belshina (6) 1-0
Vitebsk vs Dinamo Brest (5) 1-1
Partizan Minsk vs Torpedo Zhodino (6) 2-1
Neman Grodno vs Minsk (7) 1-2
Dnepr Mogilev vs BATE Borisov (7) 0-1
Brazilian Serie A:
Santos vs Sao Paulo (6) 2-1
Cruzeiro vs Gremio (7) 2-0
Internacional vs Flamengo (6) 1-1
Goias vs Atletico Paranaense (6) 1-0
Ceara vs Palmeiras (4) 0-1
Corinthians vs Guarani (8) 1-0
Botafogo vs Fluminense (6) over 2.5 goals
Colombian Primera A:
Deportes Tolima vs Deportes Quindio (7) 2-1
La Equidad Bogota vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla (5) 1-1
Deportivo Pereira vs Cucuta Deportivo (4) 0-1
Cortulua vs Atletico Huila (6) 1-1
Real Cartagena vs Boyaca Chico (7) 2-1
America de Cali vs Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota (6) 1-1
Croatian Prva Liga:
Slaven Koprivnica vs Sibenik (8) 2-0
Cibalia Vinkovci vs Osijek (5) 0-0
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Brno vs Usti nad Labem (7) 2-0
Sigma Olomouc vs Jablonec (5) 0-0
Teplice vs Marila Pribram (5) 1-0
Banik Ostrava vs Slavia Prague (5) 0-1
Danish Superligaen:
Lyngby vs AC Horsens (4) 1-1
Nordsejalland vs SonderjyskE (8) 2-0
Aalborg BK vs Brondby (7) 2-1
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Olmedo Riobamba vs El Nacional Quito (5) 0-0
Emelec Guayaquil vs Manta (8) 2-0
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Levadia Tallinn vs Flora Tallinn (8) over 2.5 goals
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
FC Honka Espoo vs TPS Turku (7) 2-1
Inter Turku vs Jaro Pietarsaari (6) 1-0
Finnish Ykkonen:
Hameenlinna vs Jippo Joensuu (7) under 2.5 goals
PK-35 Helsinki vs HJK II (9) over 2.5 goals
TPV Tampere vs RoPS Rovaniemi (8)
MP Mikkeli vs FC Espoo (6)
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs Valur Reykjavik (6) 1-1
Selfoss vs KR Reykjavik (5) 2-2
Stjarnan Gardabaer vs Fylkir Reykjavik (6) 2-1
Fram Reykjavik vs Breidablik Kopavogur (6) 1-1
FH Hafnarfjordur vs Haukar Hafnarfjordur (4) at least one red card in this game
Irish Premier League:
St.Patrick’s Athletic vs Sporting Fingal (7) 2-1
Galway United vs Dundalk (5) 1-1
Japanese J-League:
Shonan Bellmare vs Tokyo (5) 1-1
Vissel Kobe vs Omiya Ardija (5) 1-0
Kawasaki Frontale vs Kyoto Sanga (6) 1-0
Latvian Virsliga:
Jurmala vs Jelgava (7) 2-1
Skonto Riga vs RFS/Olimps Riga (9) -1.75 handicap
FK Ventspils vs Tranzits Ventspils (9) 2-1
Dinaburg Daugavpils vs Blazma Rezekne (8) 2-1
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Vetra Vilnius vs Tauras Taurage (7) 2-1
Siauliai vs Suduva Marijampole (8) 0-1
Mexican Primera Division:
Pumas UNAM vs Toluca (6) 2-2
Morelia vs Atlas (5) 1-1
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Sandefjord vs Brann Bergen (4) 0-0
Molde vs Start Kristiansand (5) 1-1
Kongsvinger vs Tromso (5) 0-1
Haugesund vs Viking Stavanger (5) 1-2
Odd Grenland Skien vs Stromsgodset (6) 2-0
Stabaek vs Rosenborg BK (5) 1-1
Norwegian Divisjon 1:
Ranheim vs Bodo Glimt (4)
Mjondalen vs Sogndal (6)
Follo vs Strommen (5)
Bryne vs Lov-Ham Bergen (6) both sides to score
Alta vs Nybergsund (5)
Sarpsborg 08 vs Moss (6)
Tromsdalen vs Fredrikstad (5) under 2.5 goals
Romanian Liga:
Universitatea Cluj vs Steaua Bucharest (7) 0-1
Astra Ploiesti vs Dinamo Bucharest (7) 1-2
Russian Premier League:
Sibir Novosibirsk vs Lokomotiv Moscow (7) 1-2
Amkar Perm vs Saturn Moscow Oblast (5) 1-0
Anzhi Makhachkala vs Terek Grozny (6) 1-1
Krylya Sovetov Samara vs Spartak Moscow (4) 1-1
CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Nalchik (5) 1-1
Singaporean S-League:
Woodlands Wellington vs Beijing Guoan (6) 1-1
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
Kosice vs Dukla Banska Bystrica (5) 1-1
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Rudar Velenje vs Maribor (6) 1-1
Gorica vs Olimpija Ljubljana (6) over 2.5 goals
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Halmstad vs IFK Goteborg (6) 1-1
Kalmar vs Djurgarden (7) 2-1
Gefle vs Trelleborg (5) 0-0
Swedish Superettan:
Ljungskile vs Syrianska Sodertalje (6) over 2.5 goals
Hammarby vs Angelholm (5)
Assyriska Sodertalje vs Trollhattan (7)
Swiss Super League:
Neuchatel Xamax vs Thun (7) 2-1
St.Gallen vs Bellinzona (6) 2-0
FC Zurich vs Grasshoppers Zurich (6) 2-2
Swiss Challenge League:
Lausanne Sports vs Winterthur (6)
Vaduz vs Servette (5) both sides to score
Ukrainian Premier League:
Karpaty Lviv vs Metalurg Zaporizhya (8) 2-0
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Zorya Lugansk (8) -1.75 handicap
Obolon Kiev vs Vorskla Poltava (6) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!