Levski Sofia vs Dundalk
FreeToday’s featured game is the UEFA Europa League encounter in Bulgaria between Levski Sofia and Dundalk. Hosts Levski Sofia already have the advantage of being the more experienced of these two sides in European competition and it should ultimately show by the final whistle too.
Levski Sofia are one of the best sides in Bulgaria despite a shaky A PFG showing in their last campaign. Nonetheless, they’re a talented side and they do boast arguably the most bizarre European form around. They’ve played four home games in the UEFA Europa League, all four of which were home defeats, three of which went under 2.5 goals, and all four of which Levski Sofia failed to score in. Their four away games have all gone under 2.5 goals and they’ve one once and lost three times. Suffice to say that they’re a solid side if nothing else. They lack a sufficient level of potency to be a constant threat in European competition but they’re strong defensively and thus always a good candidate for going under 2.5 goals.
Visitors Dundalk scare me a little for this bet as any side that can concede three times in twenty minutes against Luxembourgian opposition can be frail defensively. However, I’m taking comfort from the fact that they’re mid-season and that they’ll approach this game as underdogs, which is exactly how all Irish sides like to play. I recall Derry City making a similar trip last season to take on Levski’s big local rivals CSKA Sofia with everyone saying that CSKA would destroy them but they underestimated the cult fame of the Irish tenacity! The scoreline ended 1-0 to CSKA but it took a long time until the hosts got their breakthrough. I’m expecting a similar game today although it is worth pointing out that Dundalk aren’t as good as Derry were but it’s also worth noting that Levski don’t score as many as CSKA do.
Bluntly, this one is something of a bookies’ trap. It’s like they want you to think this will be a walkover whereas I believe it will be anything but. If Levski finally manage to score then they should win this one 1-0 or 2-0 against a determined but fairly talentless Dundalk side. However, I’m not even interested in backing a Levski win here against resilient opponents – I’m just surprised at how generous the odds are on going under 2.5 goals today!
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Valletta vs Ruch Chorzow – away win at 11/20.
These odds are too long! Polish sides may not travel well but Ruch were exceptional in Kazakhstan in the last round so I’m very confident that they can do the job in Malta. The odds should be closer to 1/3 for this one as I expect Ruch to ease to victory here against an inferior and relatively impotent host.
Verdict: Ruch Chorzow to win at 11/10.
OFK Belgrade vs Torpedo Zhodino – lay OFK Belgrade at 7/4.
If this isn’t drastic over-estimation of the hosts, then I don’t know what is. Serbian football has stagnated over the past couple of years – even Red Star and Partizan don’t boast the same threat in European competition anymore. OFK Belgrade are a defensive, low-scoring, uninteresting side and they look far too short to me here with that in mind. They’re not the most experienced of sides in this competition and whereas I won’t deny that they are better than their opponents today, I still don’t see why they’re so short. Serbian sides are famed for not scoring enough goals and whereas their opponents today follow a similar style of football, I still don’t see the reasoning behind OFK Belgrade being such favourites. Torpedo aren’t a particularly good side but they’re tenacious and will hold onto a 0-0 here given chance and that’s exactly what I think will happen. They’re mid-season so do have match practice and they’re facing a very similar side so expect a physical game here. However, laying the hosts today looks unbelievably generous at 7/4, as does going under 2.5 goals.
Verdict: Lay OFK Belgrade at 7/4.
Elfsborg Boras vs Iskra-Stal – under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Moldovan sides have an unfortunate record of being very hard to beat in European football nowadays, just like their national side is starting to become. Never underestimate them or you’ll get burned. Iskra-Stal are not one of the better sides in Moldova and are largely inexperienced in European competition as a result but they’ll set up their defence the same way that the giants of their country too – eleven men behind the ball – which makes them hard to beat. Elfsborg are the superior side but they’ve yet to convince in the Allsvenskan this season on a consistent basis. They’ve been ferocious at home with five wins in seven games and averaging scoring nearly three goals per home game but this is a very different opponent indeed. Elfsborg are certainly good enough to win this game but it depends how long the Moldovans hang on for as to how many goals will be scored. I don’t think Elfsborg will score early in the game so going under 2.5 goals at 11/10 could be a good bet here although naturally do approach with caution – If Elfsborg’s application is correct then this game could end 6-0!
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Gorica vs Randers – away win at 21/10.
How on earth are Gorica favourites for this game?! It’s either a massive market over-reaction to Randers’ defeat in Luxembourg with an under-strength side (as they’d already progressed) or it’s been based on their domestic displays last season. Either way, Randers most certainly are the better side here so I’m a bit baffled at the odds on show here. Gorica love to score goals, which I admire them for, but their defence is incredibly weak and should get exposed easily today. This Gorica side has somehow even managed to lose at home to Rabotnicki Skopje in the past few years in this competition so I don’t have a lot of faith in them! A narrow win at home to FC Lahti of Finland last season did little to improve my confidence in them either! Gorica’s tactics are not yet fit for European use and I think they’re up against a side that will punish them for it. When Randers apply themselves correctly, they’re one of the best sides in Denmark. They’ve demonstrated that already this season against a weak Luxembourgian opponent by beating them in style and resting players for the return leg. Don’t underestimate Randers though – they really are a good and spirited side. They’re far too long to win this game so I have to back a Randers win at very generous odds of 21/10.
Verdict: Randers to win at 21/10.
Dinamo Minsk vs Sillamae Kalev – home win with -1.75 handicap at evens.
Belarusian football is very strong at the moment and Dinamo Minsk are one of the two fore-runners of it along with reigning Vysshaya Liga champions BATE Borisov. Dinamo Minsk are playing very well this season by being clinical and keeping clean sheets. They have a good record against Baltic sides and Sillamae Kalev aren’t really good enough to be in this competition. The visitors had a great campaign last year but they’re not one of the top sides in Estonia for me – they’re fourth at best. They like to attack and their defence is quite weak in comparison to the level of attack that they’re facing today so you have to feel that the hosts have enough about them to do damage today. Dinamo Minsk need to score early in the game as they play possession football and that doesn’t always bring about the most goals. However, they’re facing an opponent that they can easily overwhelm given the breaks and I like the chances of them doing so, particularly with the handicap at such good odds.
Verdict: Dinamo Minsk to beat the -1.75 goal handicap at evens.
Zestaponi vs Dukla Banska Bystrica – home win at evens.
This is a dubious call but one that I like. Georgia is never an easy venue for an away side as poor Faetano of San Marino discovered last round as they were destroyed by their hosts. However, Georgian sides don’t tend to score many at home so I don’t usually back them. That said, Zestaponi are the exception; they love to score goals, especially at home. They’re very much an attacking side and I expect them to use that advantage as well as their experience in European competition against their Slovakian opponents today. I think the two sides are quite well-matched but Banska are yet to play a competitive game this season and haven’t appeared in European football for five years now. I think the visitors today may be undone by momentum, experience, and potency, although I can only emphasise caution as they’re two well-matched sides, as I’ve stated already. Expect plenty of goals, either way!
Verdict: Zestaponi to win at evens.
Molde vs Jelgava – over 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Molde have had a terrible Eliteserien campaign this season. They’ve missed players, admittedly, but they’re leaking goals for fun. They’re by far the superior side against Jelgava but you have to feel that Jelgava can score here because Molde concede goals so easily at the moment. Molde’s returning players have given me confidence in their ability to find the net so that doesn’t concern me – Jelgava aren’t good enough defensively to keep them out – but it’s their defensive ineptitude that intrigues me here. For me, over 2.5 goals in this game at 3/4 should be a bargain as I expected it to be far shorter than that, especially given Molde’s ability to concede three goals in two minutes as shown against Lillestrom domestically!
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Stabaek vs Dnepr Mogilev – over 2.5 goals at evens.
“Stabaek” and “over 2.5 goals” are two things that walk hand-in-hand everywhere. Stabaek cannot defend and love to attack. They’re clinical, they’ve got good players and finishers, and despite the problems they do have at the moment, you just know that they’re going to score goals today. Dnepr are a strong defensive unit but Stabaek have a knack of exploiting defences of this nature at least once and if Dnepr come out to play Stabaek, they’ll be destroyed. That said, Stabaek cannot defence so you may see Dnepr do something relatively unthinkable in their defensive world and attack to try and sneak an away goal as I don’t see Stabaek winning in Belarus in the return leg. Eitehr way, barring Dnepr having a lot of fortune against Stabaek today, this game will go over 2.5 goals. Dnepr are a side that I respect a lot but they don’t have a good enough defence to keep out the likes of Stabaek.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Kalmar vs Dacia Chisinau – under 2.5 goals at evens.
This preview follows a very similar vein to that of Elfsborg vs Iskra-Stal. However, for me, this one has even more chance of going under 2.5 goals. Kalmar have been fairly unpredictable domestically this season but always enjoy their under 2.5 goals games. They don’t score enough but like to keep the ball so they’re not an easy side to face. Dacia are one of the best three sides in Moldova and are very experienced in European football as a result. I’m 100% certain that they’ll park the bus in front of the goal in this game and they’re worryingly good in defence, usually. I don’t see low-scoring Kalmar doing too much damage and I don’t see any away goals here so we should see under 2.5 goals today.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Maritimo Funchal vs Sporting Fingal – under 2.5 goals at 6/5.
My first reaction to these odds was quite simply “eh?”. How can a home side that barely averages scoring 1.5 goals per home game domestically, a side that has never competed in a home game in European football where more than one goal has been scored, have a game against a tenacious and defensive opponent priced at 6/5? It’s absolutely mind-boggling – I’ve no idea where these odds come from sometimes! Maritimo are a good side and they are the better side, yes, but them scoring twice in one game is something that they seem to dislike doing! Fingal are going to come here for the draw and I don’t see them having much of the ball as a result, and thus not scoring. However, they’ll park the bus so this game has got under 2.5 goals all over it in my eyes – hell, I’m not even that confident that Maritimo will win the game!
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 6/5.
Siauliai vs Wisla Krakow – lay Wisla Krakow at 21/20.
Lithuanian football doesn’t deserve the long odds that they keep getting in European football and for me, this is a classic example. Wisla are a very good side on their day and are giants of Polish football with lots of European experience. However, they were rather poor last season with their displays, largely due to struggling to score against stubborn defences, which is exactly what they’ll face today. Siauliai are not one of the best sides in Lithuania but they know how to defend and Wisla struggle against this type of defence, generally. Siauliai are mid-season; Wisla are yet to play a competitive game. Wisla have won once in their last eight away games in European football. For me, I can’t see why Wisla are so short, particularly considering their attacking problems. Laying the visitors today looks far too generous in my eyes and should be worth a punt today.
Verdict: Lay Wisla Krakow at 21/20.
Anorthosis Famagusta vs Sibenik – lay Anorthosis Famagusta at 29/20.
Anorthosis fucked me up twice last round; I hope they won’t again!
Anorthosis are facing a much better side this time around though so they should struggle. They’re not as good as they were and they generally don’t score enough goals. Sibenik struggled against Maltese side Sliema Wanderers last round, not because of a lack of possession but because of a lack of goalscoring. Defensively, Sibenik are very, very good so don’t underestimate them here. They much prefer playing as underdogs and I expect a difficult match for Anorthosis as a result. I’m concerned that Sibenik don’t score enough goals, particularly having sold their best striker in summer, but I can see them holding a generally low-scoring Anorthosis side to a draw here today so why laying the hosts is so long is beyond me – Sibenik are very assured defensively as it’s the strongest part of their game by some distance.
Verdict: Lay Anorthosis Famagusta at 29/20.
Accumulator fodder:
Ruch Chorzow, FK Ventspils, FC Honka Espoo, MyPa Anjalankoski, Austria Vienna, FC Utrecht, Besiktas JK, Zrinjski Mostar, Brondby,
Recommended bets:
I’m not fond of big accumulators but Dinamo Minsk, FC Honka Espoo, MyPa Anjalankoski, Ruch Chorzow, Zrinjski Mostar, FK Ventspils, and Austria Vienna at 4/1 looks very interesting indeed.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
UEFA Europa League Qualifiers:
WIT-Georgia Tbilisi vs Banik Ostrava (6) 0-0
Atyrau vs Gyori ETO FC (6) 1-1
Tauras Taurage vs APOEL Nicosia (6) 0-1
Rabotnicki Skopje vs Mika Yerevan (6) under 2.5 goals
Valletta vs Ruch Chorzow (8) 0-2
OFK Belgrade vs Torpedo Zhodino (5) 0-0
FK Ventspils vs Teteks Tetovo (8) 2-0
Baku vs Buducnost Podgorica (5) 2-1
FC Honka Espoo vs Bangor City (9) -1.75 handicap
Elfsborg Boras vs Iskra-Stal (7) under 2.5 goals
Gorica vs Randers (5) 1-2
Olimpia Balti vs Dinamo Bucharest (5) 0-0
Dinamo Minsk vs Sillamae Kalev (8) 2-0
MyPa Anjalankoski vs Sant Julia (10) -2.75 handicap
Austria Vienna vs Siroki Brijeg (8) 2-0
Zestaponi vs Dukla Banska Bystrica (7) 2-1
Molde vs Jelgava (7) over 2.5 goals
Stabaek vs Dnepr Mogilev (7) over 2.5 goals
Anorthosis Famagusta vs Sibenik (5) 0-0
Gefle vs Dinamo Tbilisi (6) 1-0
Differdange 03 vs Spartak Subotica (4) 1-1
Lausanne Sports vs Borac Banja Luka (5) 1-1
Kalmar vs Dacia Chisinau (7) under 2.5 goals.
Cercle Brugge vs TPS Turku (6) over 2.5 goals
Levski Sofia vs Dundalk (6) under 2.5 goals
Siauliai vs Wisla Krakow (6) 1-1
Utrecht vs KF Tirana (8) -1.75 handicap
Besiktas JK vs Vikingur Gotu (9) -1.75 handicap
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs Mogren Budva (7) 2-0
Brondby vs Vaduz (8) -1.75 handicap
Zrinjski Mostar vs Tre Penne (10) -2.75 handicap
Suduva Marijampole vs Rapid Vienna (6) 0-2
Fehervar vs Maribor (6) 2-1
Besa Kavaje vs Olympiakos Piraeus (7) 0-1
Maritimo Funchal vs Sporting Fingal (6) under 2.5 goals
Motherwell vs Breidablik Kopavogur (6) 1-1
Cliftonville vs Cibalia Vinkovci (5) 0-0
Portadown vs Qarabagh (6) 0-1
Shamrock Rovers vs Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv (6) 0-1
KR Reykjavik vs Karpaty Lviv (6) 1-1
Finnish Ykkonen:
PS Kemi Kings vs Jippo Joensuu (6)
Singaporean S-League:
Woodlands Wellington vs Albirex Niigata (6) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!