Litex Lovech vs Beroe
FreeFor membership details, go here.
Today’s secondary featured game is the A PFG game in Bulgaria between Litex Lovech and Beroe. Litex are one of the giants of Bulgarian football and thus are justifiably favourites to win this game although it’s certainly not worth your time to underestimate Beroe, who have proven themselves immensely over the past couple of years as a side that is very hard to beat.
Realistically speaking, the A PFG title will be in Lovech with Litex or Sofia with Levski by the end of the season, in my view, and with just five points separating the two sides at the moment, Litex need to keep winning, especially with Levski having bounced back from defeat against bitter rivals CSKA Sofia by overcoming Lokomotiv Sofia 0-2 yesterday. Litex are well-placed to build on their 0-3 victory at Minior Pernik last week with their home advantage having been a huge ally already this season. Indeed, Litex have won seven out of eight home games in the A PFG, slipping up just once in a 0-0 draw with Chernomorets Burgas, which indicates how hard Lovech is to get a result from. Unlike their contemporaries Levski Sofia, however, the reason that Litex are hard to beat is because they defend like warriors. Levski Sofia play a more attractive attacking game whereas Litex keep it tight, take their chances, and grind out wins.
Litex had a fairly quiet transfer window in terms of incoming players but they did lose important striker Niflore, who left to join Nimes in France’s Ligue 2. Without him, they do lack a certain something in attack that experienced Todorov doesn’t quite supply and that showed last match. Yes, Litex won 0-3 but all three goals came in the second half, all of which were in the last twenty minutes, so don’t make the mistake of thinking that Niflore’s departure hasn’t affected Litex because it has. Litex are not a naturally gifted goalscoring side in general but they’re very good with possession and manipulating other sides tactically but that can sometimes take time, of course. That’s why Litex have only been leading in 50% of their home games at half-time in the A PFG this season so backing Litex with HT/FT Draw/Litex Lovech at 11/5 appeals to me here.
However, I’m still not going to rule out a surprise draw here for Beroe because they’re a very hard side to score against. Only their hosts Litex Lovech and Chernomorets Burgas have conceded less goals than Beroe have this season as their defensive tactics continue to frustrate sides. Beroe have the same squad as they started the season with after an eventless transfer window and will look to frustrate sides as much as possible for the remainder of the current campaign too, as that’s their style. Beroe have lost four out of eight away games already this season but only via not scoring goals as they’re still one of the better A PFG sides defensively when playing away from home. Beroe tend to lack stamina towards the end of games, however. Consider that they’ve been drawing five out of their eight away games this season when it’s come to half-time and yet they’ve gone on to lose three of those games. As far as conceding goals is concerned, no other side in the A PFG can even match Beroe’s terrific record of conceding just two goals in the first-half of away games so far this season so expect a vigilant display from the visitors today, especially at the back.
However, quality does favour the hosts and that should eventually tell. For me, this should be a fairly dire spectacle with Litex dominating the ball but struggling to convert their chances and that ultimately leads me into the call of under 2.5 goals here. I still fancy the HT/FT Draw/Litex Lovech bet I mentioned above as the odds are generous at 11/5. However, under 2.5 goals is my main call here as I don’t see Beroe scoring and I don’t see Litex scoring more than twice.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Arsenal de Sarandi vs Independiente – home win at 5/4.
Arsenal de Sarandi may miss important defender Marcone for this game and have doubts over half of their lethal duo in attack but they’re facing an Independiente side that has not only just got back from high altitude in Ecuador but they also have to prepare for another Copa Libertadores fixture in just a couple of days against fellow Primera Division outfit Godoy Cruz de Mendoza so they’re almost certain to rest players here as they don’t have much depth in their team. Arsenal have done alright so far in the current campaign, winning their only home game 2-0 against Tigre and playing well in their two away games, earning a draw at a much improven Huracan side and losing 3-1 at Atletico Lanus courtesy of two goals in injury time. Arsenal remain a very hard side to play against as they keep the ball well. My biggest crib with Arsenal is not scoring enough goals but with Obolo and potentially Leguizamon lining up against what is likely to be an under-strength Independiente side tonight, I have to fancy them to take three points from this game. Independiente are nose-diving down the averages table, which may mean they try and field their first-team here but there’s no way they can last the distance if they do that – the jump in altitude is impossible to handle in such a short space of time – so again, I favour Arsenal to win this one. Independiente’s problem this season has been goalscoing too, ironically – they’ve failed to score in three out of their last five games in all competition, the most recent of which was their 3-0 drubbing against Liga de Quito in Ecuador. If Independiente don’t score here than I think they’ll lose as Arsenal are good enough and experienced enough to score at least once here. I can’t see Independiente getting a result here, though – they’ve got to rest players for the prestigious Copa Libertadores so my call is the home win at 5/4.
Team news – Arsenal de Sarandi miss Marcone and Aguilar whilst having doubts over Leguizamon.
Accumulator fodder:
Vaslui, Etoile.
Recommended bets:
Vaslui and Arsenal de Sarandi at 2/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Arsenal de Sarandi vs Independiente (6) 1-0
Bulgarian A PFG:
Litex Lovech vs Beroe (8) 2-0
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Sigma Olomouc vs Banik Ostrava (7) 1-0
Danish Superligaen:
AC Horsens vs OB Odense (5) over 2.5 goals
English Premier League:
Blackpool vs Chelsea (7) over 2.5 goals
French Ligue 2:
Boulogne vs Evian Thonon Gaillard (6)
German Bundesliga 2:
Augsburg vs Fortuna Dusseldorf (5) over 2.5 goals
Italian Serie B:
Vicenza vs Torino (4)
Atalanta Bergamo vs Novara (6)
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Telstar vs Cambuur Leeuwarden (7)
Peruvian Primera Division:
Leon de Huanuco vs Universitario Lima (5) 0-1
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Pacos de Ferreira vs Naval de Maio (6) 1-0
Portimonense vs CD Nacional de Madeira (4) 1-2
Romanian Liga:
Universitatea Craiova vs Victoria Branesti (6) 2-1
Vaslui vs Universitatea Cluj (8) 2-0
Scottish Premier League:
Dundee United vs Aberdeen (6) 1-1
Singaporean S-League:
Etoile vs Hougang United (8) 2-0
Spanish Primera Liga:
Deportivo La Coruna vs Real Sociedad (6) 1-0
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Tenerife vs Barcelona II (5)
Swiss Challenge League:
Schaffhausen vs Biel-Bienne (6)
Turkish Super Lig:
Genclerbirligi vs Fenerbahce (7) 1-2
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Tacuarembo vs River Plate Montevideo (5) 1-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!