Llanelli vs Bangor City
FreeToday’s featured game is the Welsh Premier League encounter between Llanelli and Bangor City. Last season, you’d have to have fancied Llanelli to emerge victorious here with giants Bangor City having a relatively quiet campaign but the tables have certainly turned for the current campaign!
Indeed, Llanelli’s recognition as a big side in the Welsh Premier League has all but vanished with tonight’s hosts extremely impotent in front of goal. The only side to have scored less goals at home than Llanelli this season is relegation-threatened Newtown, which largely explains why Llanelli are lingering in mid-table annonymity currently. Surprisingly, Llanelli’s defending has been poor this year, most notably at home where they average conceding over two goals per home game. The average of scoring just over a goal per home game doesn’t compliment that record whatsoever so it becomes very understandable as to why Llanelli have lost more home games than they’ve won, losing fifty percent of their home games already this season. Llanelli came back after a lengthy break without football with a bang by winning 1-3 at Carmarthen Town so they do bring momentum into this game. However, they’ve failed to win any of their last three home games in the Premier League despite facing two inferior sides (Airbus UK and Aberystwyth Town respectively) and Neath Athletic with Llanelli conceding eight goals in those three games alone and losing two of the games. I’d therefore draw the conclusion that Llanelli are going to struggle here, irrespective of their win last match.
Considering that Llanelli don’t score many goals as a rule, you already have to give Bangor City a chance here. However, when you consider that Bangor City currently average scoring three goals per game, irrespective of whether they’re playing at home or away, you have to give them a much bigger chance here. Bangor City have only lost once in the Premier League this season and that was at weekend against Prestatyn Town. The result was a little surprising but Prestatyn Town have played well this season and gave Bangor City a very good game and deservedly won the game. However, the only way that Prestatyn Town managed to beat Bangor City was by outscoring them. It’s pretty much a given thing that you’ll concede goals against the most potent side in Wales currently so to beat them, you have to score more goals, which Prestatyn Town did, winning 4-2. Similarly, the only way I can see Llanelli beating Bangor City in this game is by outscoring them and I just don’t see how that will occur, especially as Llanelli have only scored eight goals at home in the Premier League this season! Bangor City have won six out of eight on the road already in this campaign and it’s going to take more than a one-off blip against Prestatyn Town to convince me of anything other than them being favourites to win the Welsh Premier League this season, especially with Reed and Bull scoring goals for fun.
In all honesty, I think this price is heavily influenced by the Llanelli of the past few seasons but it’s just not the same side anymore. I genuinely don’t believe that Llanelli are capable of giving Bangor City a game here, not anymore. Llanelli lost 2-0 at Bangor City earlier this season before Bangor City went on a tremendous run of form. I can only envision an even stronger Bangor City side emerging tonight and if that occurs then this game really should end with an away win. For me, the away win at 11/10 is a good value bet as I’d have priced it at 8/11, all things considered.
Verdict: Bangor City to win at 11/10 – why not bet on this game now at Bwin?
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory – over 2.5 goals at evens.
I simply cannot fathom such generous odds on over 2.5 goals here; it just doesn’t make sense. These two sides are both good sides in the A-League; top four sides, in my view. Four out of the last five meetings between these two outfits in New Zealand have gone over 2.5 goals and two out of the last three meetings between these two clubs have gone over 2.5 goals. Wellington Phoenix are the leading side in the A-League when it comes to the number of goals occurring in their games with an average of 2.87 goals per game and in second place is their opponents today, Melbourne Victory, who average 2.77 goals per game that they participate in.
Wellington Phoenix have kept five clean sheets in twenty-two A-League games this season whereas Melbourne Victory have kept seven clean sheets in twenty-two A-League games this season. Although Victory’s defence is better than the Phoenix’s, it cannot be denied that neither side pay much attention to defending as neither side are particularly good at it.
To top that off, both sides are playing well at the moment. Both sides endured slow starts and although the Victory started playing well quicker than the Phoenix did, both are starting to score goals for fun and obtain good results so I’m expecting a good game of football here with plenty of goals. Phoenix have bagged ten goals over their last four home games whereas Victory have bagged eight goals over their last four away games. These two should should realistically be on collision course for a goal-filled game of football and I see little to convince me otherwise here.
Due to their hectic fixture schedule over Christmas, Melbourne Victory have rested captain Muscat for this game, which pretty much blows any slim chance that they had of keeping a clean sheet in New Zealand today as he’s the rock of their defence with a vast wealth of experience on his side. Regrettably, Victory do miss leading goalscorer Kruse as he’s joined up with the Australian national team to participate in the Asian Cup so that might harm Victory’s goalscoring options. However, I won’t read too much into that as I really don’t see how Phoenix can keep a clean sheet – they’re just no good at defending, simply put! Ricardinho and Thompson in attack for Victory can score goals against their back four, particularly with Lochhead still on the sidelines. Phoenix have goalscorers spread throughout their team, to counter the afore-mentioned, so if this game doesn’t have goals then there’s something afoot here! For me, over 2.5 goals at evens is an absolute gift in this game and I’ll be verging on devastated if this selection doesn’t win today!
Team news – Wellington Phoenix miss Lochhead whereas Melbourne Victory miss Muscat and Kruse.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Arsenal vs Manchester City – under 2.5 goals at evens.
A lot of people will look at this game, see the league table, and jump all over 2.5 goals but that doesn’t look right to me today and I’ll explain why.
Arsenal play some lovely attacking football, it’s true. Arsense Wenger won’t have it any other way and he absolutely should be respected for that. However, it is possible to defend against them and that’s really shown at The Emirates this season. They overcame Chelsea 3-1 in their last home game – fair enough, Arsenal took their chances and Chelsea were dire. On a more average home game, Arsenal have laboured to a 1-0 win at home to West Ham United, courtesy of a last-minute goal, and have laboured to a 2-1 win at home to Fulham that Fulham arguably didn’t deserve to lose, not to mention their defeats at home to newly-promoted West Bromwich Albion and Newcastle United respectively; nor the time when they threw away a two-goal lead at home to bitter rivals Tottenham Hotspur. My point is that Arsenal can be contained and although their home record in general doesn’t show it, their half-time record does – they’ve led just three games out of nine at half-time in their nine home games in the Premier League this season. Arsenal always keep the ball well but when it comes to actually penetrating sides, they tend to struggle, especially when sides line up defensively against them.
And guess what City are very likely to do with their truckload of defensive players? Yes – I’m pretty confidence that they’ll line up defensively because it’s what any intelligent side does at Arsenal. I won’t normally place much faith in City as I don’t rate them as an attacking force but when they stick men behind the ball, they don’t concede many. Their defence isn’t particularly solid but their midfield is and I fully expect at least two holding midfielders in the City squad for this game. Whenever City come down to play Arsenal they line up defensively and there hasn’t been an exception to that under Mancini. Indeed, all three of their last three visits to Arsenal have gone under 2.5 goals as a result so I expect more of the same in this game. City have impressively conceded just once away from home this season and currently possess the best defensive record in the division so Arsenal have a long, hard task ahead of them tonight, even with star striker Van Persie back in their ranks.
Can City score here? Sure – they’re a good counter-attacking side and Arsenal’s defence lacks organisation, especially without Vermaelen. However, who makes City’s goals? Silva. Well, he’s out injured for this game so their creativity has already taken a hefty blow. Crybaby striker Balotelli also misses the game through injury so as per usual, the task of goalscoring lies entirely with Argentinian supremo Carlos Tevez as out of City’s four strikers, he’s the one that wants to leave the least – well, after his “Christmas bonus” anyway! Tevez is a dangerous striker though – City could even edge the win here with him in top form. I fancy them more than Arsenal for this game because Arsenal have no “Plan B” but City do. Either way, I see a lot of Arsenal attacks failing to penetrate a solid City defence and hopefully City will squander their chances as they did against Blackpool at weekend. Either way, under 2.5 goals at evens looks appealing here, especially as City always line up with their defensive 4-5-1 against the “bigger” sides in the division and especially seeing how Arsenal tend to struggle against that kind of setup.
Team news – Arsenal miss Almunia, Gibbs, Diaby, Frimpong, and Vermaelen whereas Manchester City miss Balotelli and Silva.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Aston Villa vs Sunderland – over 2.5 goals at evens.
Agbonlahor returns for Aston Villa to boost their attack and after an impressive and dramatic 3-3 draw at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea last match, confidence should be high. Houllier’s blunders have not yet cost him his job but I do think that it’s only a matter of time – I just hope he signs Michael Owen from my beloved Manchester United before he’s inevitably fired!
Seriously, though – what is Houllier doing? O’Neill left him with one of the hardest things to achieve in the Premier League – a solid defence – and Houllier might as well just stick a load of ducks on the field at the moment as that’s how much he cares about his defence. His Villa team has kept two clean sheets in twenty games in all competitions since he took over in early September, averaging conceding approximately 1.5 goals per game. The only reason Villa took points off Chelsea last match was because they took their chances and because Chelsea’s defending was terrible. If you can concede four goals at a Manchester City side that doesn’t prioritise attacking, or concede three goals at out-of-sorts Liverpool, or throw away a two-goal lead at home to a Manchester United side not scoring goals, then you have probems defensively and Villa definitely do. They’re still missing Luke Young, which doesn’t help, but if Warnock’s out for this game (and he is a doubt) then Bruce will attack down the flanks and most likely have a lot of joy as his Sunderland sides like to play wide games with pacey wingers. Villa have shipped nine goals in their last three games and their last five home games have gone over 2.5 goals so I think we’ll see more of the same today, especially with eight out of their last nine games overall having gone over 2.5 goals.
Sunderland are not a particularly good away side and are rather infamous for that in the Premier League. However, they must be looking at this game and fancying their chances because Bruce’s Sunderland this season are attacking really well and when they take their chances, they look a phenomenal side. A Sunderland side taking their chances won 0-3 at Chelsea. A Sunderland side not taking their chances lost 0-2 at home to Blackpool. However, Sunderland were almost identical in the two games, in my view, so that shows how good they can be on their day. The trio of Gyan, Bent, and Welbeck look frighteningly good, however, and Villa’s defence must be dreading yet another long night, which I certainly think that they’ll encounter. However, holding midfielder Cattermole misses this game for Sunderland and that’s a hefty blow as they struggle to dominate midfield without him. Sunderland do score goals away from home as they’re quick on the counter-attack but they average conceding 1.5 goals per away game and I don’t see that improving today against a strong Villa attack. Bramble captains the side in Cattermole’s absence and although he’s played well under Bruce most of the time, we all know how calamitous he can be so a big performance is required from him tonight or Sunderland will concede a lot of goals. If Onuoha misses this game then Sunderland will struggle down their flanks too, which helps Villa as they tend to stick Young and Agbonlahor on each side and you won’t find many quicker players on the flanks than those two
With all of the absences and statistics taken into consideration, this game really should go over 2.5 goals at evens. I’m banking on Sunderland taking at least one of their chances tonight but Villa’s defence will help them out there, as ever, so I think evens on this game going over 2.5 goals is a good price.
Team news – Aston Villa miss Luke Young, Weimanb, Delph, and have doubts over Warnock and Carew whereas Sunderland miss Cattermole, Campbell, Turner, Carson, Mensah, and have doubts over Onouha for this game.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Everton vs Tottenham Hotspur – away win with draw no bet at 10/11.
There’s a very worrying factor for Everton and everyone in the Premier League knows it – they don’t score enough goals. Only the bottom four clubs in the division have scored less than they have and that’s got to be rectified soon, especially in a very tight division this year. Everyone was barking on about Beckford’s signing from Leeds United and I recall saying at the time that I didn’t think he’d make the grade as he needs too many chances to score and I don’t think I’ve been proven wrong thus far, even with him poaching the odd goal for them this season. Saha is a good striker but needs confidence and no goals in fourteen appearances for him hasn’t helped. Yakubu seems to have lost all interest in being fully fit and even playing football nowadays so they can’t count on him so what does Moyes do? He sticks attacking midfielder Tim Cahill up front on his own in a 4-5-1. Everton’s strength is in their midfield but Cahill is not a striker – he’s far more dangerous with his runs from midfield. Out of the twenty-one goals that Everton have scored this season, Australian international Cahill has bagged nine and is their leading goalscorer by a mile. Unfortunately for the scousers, he won’t be playing in this game as he’s gone to represent Australia in the Asian Cup because we all know that Australia is really in Asia geographically so Moyes has some real issues here. They’ve scored just three goals in their last four games and average just scoring over a goal per home game. There was talk of Everton trying to loan Macheda from Manchester United but whatever they do , they need to do it quickly because this division is very unforgiving and David Moyes knows it.
Spurs are an unreliable side at best but you’ll no doubt see the correlation between their burst of good form and lack of distractions elsewhere i.e. they win when they don’t have Champions League committments. I don’t think that that’s a surprise in itself but I also think that Redknapp knows his side must take as many points as possible at the moment, not only because they trail Manchester City by some distance but because he knows his priorities will be elsewhere in February. Spurs have now won three consecutive games so morale is good and they have won four times away from home in the Premier League already this season so they do know how to do it. They like playing at Goodison Park too, oddly. As a Manchester United fan, we’ve found it to be a tough venue over the past few years but Spurs haven’t lost at Everton in their last six visits, winning three times along the way. Much like Everton, Spurs rely a lot on one of their central midfielders for goals – Van der Vaart – but unlike his opposite number Cahill, the Dutch international is available today. It also has to be noted that Spurs have plenty of attacking options with Modric, Bale, and Lennon doing the running in midfield and the likes of Pavlyuchenko and Crouch to put the ball in the net. I’d include Keane and Defoe in that list as they’re very good players but Keane is unhappy and may not be fielded and Defoe is regrettably suspended for this one. Spurs are still a little light defensively – as usual! – but Everton’s attack doesn’t look concerning to me with very few goals there so I have to give the advantage to the visitors tonight.
Everton can score here but I don’t see how they’ll score enough times to outscore a Spurs side that has goals all over the team. For me, the away win with draw no bet cover at 10/11 is a bargain tonight.
Team news – Everton miss Cahill, Barkley, and have doubts over Heitinga whereas Tottenham miss Defoe, Kaboul, Cudicini, Huddlestone, King, O’Hara, Woodgate, and have doubts over Keane, Hutton, and Gallas.
Verdict: Tottenham Hotspur to win with draw no bet at 10/11.
Accumulator fodder:
Olympiakos Piraeus, AEK Athens.
Recommended bets:
Olympiakos Piraeus, Bangor City, and AEK Athens at 2/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
International Friendly;
United Arab Emirates vs Australia (6) 1-1
Australian A-League:
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory (5) over 2.5 goals
English Premier League:
Arsenal vs Manchester City (5) under 2.5 goals
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Chelsea (4) 1-2
Aston Villa vs Sunderland (6) both sides to score, over 2.5 goals
Newcastle United vs West Ham United (5) 1-0
Bolton Wanderers vs Wigan Athletic (7) 2-1
Blackburn Rovers vs Liverpool (5) 0-0
Everton vs Tottenham Hotspur (5) 1-2, draw no bet
Greek Super League:
Asteras Tripolis vs Ergotelis (6) under 2.5 goals
Olympiakos Volos vs Panionios (6) 1-0
AEK Athens vs Kerkyra Corfu (8) 2-0
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Iraklis (9) 2-0
Panserraikos vs PAOK Salonika (4) 0-1
Welsh Premier League:
Llanelli vs Bangor City (6) 1-2
Bala Town vs Newtown (4) 1-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!