Lokeren vs Standard de Liege
FreeLoyal TFT user Marz has created a thread on the forum to discuss the injustice of England’s World Cup failure so feel free to post your thoughts on there!
Today’s featured game is the Eerste Klasse encounter between Lokeren and Standard de Liege. Both sides have enjoyed good starts to their respective campaigns this season and we can expect a good game between them as a result.
Lokeren in particular have impressed me this season with a good number of goals scored. Lokeren have dominated their home games as a result with an impressive tally of six wins, one draw, and just one defeat in eight Eerste Klasse home games this season. Indeed, only giants Anderlecht have won at Lokeren this season and Lokeren have hosted both Club Brugge and AA Gent along the way so it’s going to take something special to derail this side at home, as vulnerable in defence as they can be. Lokeren have won back-to-back games ahead of this encounter, scoring six goals along the way, which takes their average to nearly two goals scored per home game. Apart from Dr Ceulaer, Lokeren tend to lack a good striker, which is why their impressive goalscoring record this season has surprised me quite a lot. However, it’s Lokeren’s midfield that does the damage with experienced Croatian playmaker Ivan Leko consistently parting defences with through balls and his Belgian compatriots Persoons and Overmeire do their fair share alongside him too. Lokeren’s midfield is the heartbeat of the team; whether their strikers can cotton onto what’s going on behind them or not is another matter, however! Lokeren are playing well this season, especially so at home, so they should be taken seriously here as they know how to score goals so I wouldn’t write them off here.
I can’t make a case for anything other than Standard de Liege being the better of these two sides. However, Standard’s defence is susceptible at the best of times, despite their fairly decent defensive record on the road this season. Standard were brought back down to earth with a bang by losing 2-0 at Zulte-Waregem in their last away game but the 7-0 drubbing of Lierse SK at weekend did much to prove how confident the Standard players are and how well they attack. Indeed, it’s no surprise that Standard focus on their attacking rather than their defensive game as it’s by far their strongpoint. Only Anderlecht and Racing Genk have scored more goals than Standard de Liege have this season so expect the visitors to score tonight. I half-fancied Standard to win tonight but the odds don’t interest me at all when you consider the sides that they’ve struggled against in the past few weeks have all been the battling sides; Standard play much better football against sides that attack them. I therefore think Standard may be in for a rougher ride than statistics suggest, although they still possess a distinct quality advantage over Lokeren with Defour, Witsel, and Tchite in their ranks so I’d not write the away win off either.
In fact, I’d just leave the 1×2 market alone entirely here, really. Standard are good enough to win it but Lokeren are playing well enough to win it too. Instead, I’d advise you to cast an eye over the possibility of over 2.5 goals in this game, which is generously priced at 3/4. Two out of the last three meetings between these two sides have gone over 2.5 goals (including a 3-3 draw in Liege earlier this season) and with three out of Lokeren’s last four games and three out of Standard’s last five games all having gone over 2.5 goals, I think an attacking game will develop here and we’ll thus see over 2.5 goals so that’s my call here.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 3/4. Why not bet on this game now at Bwin?
Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
All Boys vs Banfield – home win at 11/10.
I almost can’t believe I’m doing this but I have to give it a whirl!
Yes, I am actually backing the drastically over-achieving All Boys against a superior Banfield side. Why? Well, motivation is a big factor here, in my opinion. Banfield have waved farewell to their Copa Libertadores hopes for the current campaign and have nothing to play for now, hence three defeats in their last four games. They’ve gone down with a whimper due to no natural goalscorers in their side and as a result, even their cast-iron defence has been breached a lot more frequently of late, which is very unusual. Unfortunately for Banfield, they’re now facing a host that simply has nothing to lose here. All Boys are new to the division and thus they have a couple more seasons to try and stay in the division before the possibility of relegation can actually arise. Therefore, they need all the points they can get and they’re certainly doing it at home with six wins, one draw, and just one defeat in eight Primera Division home games. The only side to win at All Boys this season was a very good Velez Sarsfield side so be very careful with the hosts tonight! All Boys have kept three clean sheets in their last four games and have managed to beat Boca Juniors, River Plate, Estudiantes De La Plata, and Independiente here already this season so the hosts are rapidly proving themselves as a capable side. They’re not doing anything revolutionary, to be honest – they’re just hard workers and they’re taking their chances so don’t expect great things from them. However, a disenchanted Banfield side that struggles to score goals even when in-form since the departure of Uruguayan giant Silva in attack should prove to be the perfect opponent for in-form All Boys tonight. I rate Banfield’s defence very highly indeed but they’ve shipped four goals in two games, losing both of them, and even failed to register a goal against Gimnasia De La Plata lately. Banfield are a shadow of the side they were in the last campaign without Silva and it’s really showing so with no motivation at all for the visitors, I have to favour All Boys here as they’re very much determined to build up their points to help fend off relegation in the averages table. Therefore, my call is a home win at 11/10 although I’d leave it if the odds drop.
Verdict: All Boys to win at 11/10.
Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!
Osnabruck vs Paderborn – home win at 21/20.
This bet interests me a lot tonight. Newly-promoted Osnabruck are finding Bundesliga 2 life harder than they initially anticipated but they’re not without their strengths. Osnabruck’s predominant strength is their home form, which is largely due to their ability to score goals. Indeed, amusingly enough, only MSV Duisburg, Energie Cottbus, and Hertha BSC Berlin have scored more goals at home than Osnabruck have this season despite Osnabruck being perched precariously above the Bundesliga 2 drop zone. Ironically, it’s Osnabruck’s defence that has placed them in this position in the first place so it’ll be interesting to see how Osnabruck fare this season. Nonetheless, the only sides that have won at Osnabruck this season were last year’s promotion candidates MSV Duisburg and Fortuna Dusseldorf respectively, both of which needed to score three times here to win, given the driven nature of their hosts. Potent Energie Cottbus and Hertha HSC Berlin have both travelled to Osnabruck in recent weeks and left with a defeat without even scoring, which is surprising and impressive in terms of the hosts, at least. Osnabruck have now kept three consecutive clean sheets at home and they’ve faced some of the best sides in the division so I do fancy them to do some damage to Paderborn tonight, especially with Nicky Adler in decent form.
Paderborn’s inability on the road is fast becoming legendary in Bundesliga 2 with a hefty six losses in seven away games already this season. They managed to attain fifth place in the table last season, which helped disguise the fact that only a handful of sides conceded more goals away from home than they did. The old trick of “second season is the charm” is proving to be very accurate here though with Paderborn having been well and truly caught out this season. They’re not scoring enough goals and they’re totally ineffectual away from home. They’ve averaged conceding two goals per away game this season and had they not finally managed to claim an away win (against one of the two sides in the division that I consider to be worse than they are – Ingolstadt) then their goalscoring record on the road would read two goals in six games. It’s simply not good enough, to be horribly blunt. They’ve shipped a horrific seven goals in two games without response and they weren’t playing the best in the division – they were playing mid-table sides – so Paderborn are truly in dire straits currently.
Osnabruck aren’t in the form of their lives but they’ve quickly managed to make their home advantage count, which may be enough to keep them in the division. However, Paderborn’s away form leaves them increasingly unlikely to still be in the division next year due to haphazard defending and impotent attacking. With the above statistics in mind, I feel that 21/20 is just a bit too long on the home win here so that’s my call for this game.
Verdict: Osnabruck to win at 21/20.
Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!
Den Bosch vs Zwolle – away win at 11/10.
On paper, Den Bosch’s goalscoring power is frightening. In reality, new signing Verhoek is carrying them. Den Bosch aren’t really in a position to break into the promotion favourites because they’re not good enough although in their defence, they’re not far off either. They’re a hard side to face with confidence in their favour – what side isn’t? – but without it, they reveal their true colours, which is what has happened lately. They’re without a win in four consecutive games and in my opinion, if Den Bosch are as good as the table suggests that they are, then at least three of those results are unacceptable. Losing at home to Volendam without scoring – not good enough as goalscoring is their only asset. Losing 3-1 at an AGOVV side bereft of quality – terrible result. Drawing at home to a good but very out-of-form Go Ahead Eagles – not good enough. Bluntly, Den Bosch aren’t scoring goals and they’re not playing well so it’s a catch twenty-two scenario here. Either way, this fixture isn’t welcome at all right now and I think that’ll show by the final whistle.
Zwolle have been threatening to break out of the Eerste Divisie for years now and I think they may finally achieve it this year. They’ve notched up twelve wins in fifteen games, which is a phenomenal record. They’ve scored an average of well over two goals per game whilst conceding less than a goal per game on average – two very good aspects for any side. Most sides do well with only one of those features but sides that have two (especially in the Eerste Divisie) must be taken very seriously indeed. Zwolle have already won six out of eight on the road this season and have won two out of their last three visits to face Den Bosch so I fancy them quite a lot here, especially on the back of seven consecutive Eerste Divisie wins. They’ve smashed home an impressive seventeen goals in five games despite facing tricky trips to Eindhoven and Go Ahead Eagles along the way. This Zwolle side is in impeccable form with outstanding confidence so I have to give them a shot here, especially with Sjoerd Ars in the form of his life!
Although Den Bosch can cause problems here and although Zwolle are going to have to play well to win this game, I still think there’s value in the away win, especially given the polar opposite form guides here. Den Bosch can score enough to trouble Zwolle in this game but with Zwolle looking frankly immortal at the moment, I have to recommend the away win at 11/10.
Verdict: Zwolle to win at 11/10.
Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!
Gaz Metan Medias vs Victoria Branesti – home win to nil at 6/5.
Gaz Metan to win at 4/7? Nah – they’re not worth that against anyone in this division.
However, Gaz Metan to win without conceding at 6/5? Yes, please! They’ve won four out of eight at home this season and they’ve only conceded twice during those games because of their possessive tactical approach. Gaz Metan like to score the goal and then defend it as defending is atypically their forté. Gaz Metan have played well lately with this tactic too, impressively winning 0-1 at Steaua Bucharest, drawing 1-1 at CFR Cluj, and beating Universitatea Craiova 1-0. I’d argue that Gaz Metan haven’t looked as solid as they do now all season with all of their defenders working very well as a unit, especially with experienced Lazar in there. So yeah – defensively, Gaz Metan are very assured – what they need to work on is goalscoring. They’ve relied far too heavily on Brazilian midfielder Eric’s input in the side this season with his excellent set pieces and general incisive play and whereas I can partially understand that, it’s still not a good long-term goal. Nonetheless, he’s playing well and Gaz Metan are playing well as a result so I’m happy to take the chance on them scoring here.
As much as I respect newly-promoted Victoria Branesti for their relentless enthusiasm, the cracks are beginning to appear in their fragile defence and they’re looking a lot worse for it. They’ve already lost six out of nine on the road this season by leaking over two goals per away game on average and although their goalscoring tally is actually pretty decent, I still can’t take them seriously. They’re not lacking in heart but they are lacking in ability and that is often enough to condemn a Liga side to relegation. Branesti have failed to score in two out of their last three away games and thus have duly lost twice and drawn the other game. However, with important defender Bar still suspended for this game, Branesti’s vulnerable defence will again be tested, even by a fairly impotent Gaz Metan Medias, and it should be enough to see them off too. Gaz Metan are a very hard side to score against, especially when they have the lead, and I genuinely don’t believe that the visitors have enough in their locker to score against the hosts today unless they get a penalty.
This is a risky bet as Victoria Branesti’s goal threat is one of the things they they pride themselves on. However, they’re looking a little weary of the battle at the moment – the winter break should help them there – and thus they’re not scoring as many nor playing as well, especially away from home. Gaz Metan look as relentless and as experienced as ever so I fancy them to edge this one today. As I said earlier – with only Eric providing a consistent attacking threat, Gaz Metan are absolutely not worth 4/7 to win this game. However, with Gaz Metan’s rigid defence, they are worth a flutter to win without conceding at 6/5 because if they do score then that’s what they try and do – contain their opponents.
Verdict: Gaz Metan Medias to win to nil at 6/5.
Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!
Brasov vs Targu Mures – home win at 17/20.
You won’t often see me back Brasov in the Liga because I really don’t rate them as a side – they’re little more than newly-assembled players each season as the latest crop of talent is always sold to battle against the club’s continual financial issues. Therefore, Brasov are very much a battling side as they have to be – relegation is not even an option for them. My respect does go to Brasov though – only one side has won here this season due to their stubborn defending and constant tenacity so they’re worthy of respect then playing at home. Indeed, they’re actually playing well at the moment with three consecutive home wins, two of which were against title contenders Poli Timisoara and Rapid Bucharest respectively, all of which were won without conceding a goal. Brasov will take massive confidence from that and why not? Any club in the division would kill for that record so Brasov do bring very good momentum into this game.
Targu Mures’ record ahead of this game on the road isn’t particularly flattering but does indicate that they’ll battle furiously for whatever they can get, as a well-earned point at Universitatea Cluj indicated in their last match. However, a lack of goal threat leaves them very vulnerable on the road and considering that they’ve gone through three out of their last five away games without scoring a goal, I can’t take them seriously here. Battling against sides of a similar quality or even against the superior sides of the division may yield good results but Brasov are the masters in battling at home; it’s the only reason they’ve avoided relegation for so many years. If Targu Mures are looking for a battle here then they’ve come to the right place although I really don’t think it’s a battle that they can win!
I’d generally consider 17/20 short on Brasov but I feel Targu Mures’ away record is a tad flattering for them here. Considering the importance of this game in the relegation battle, the experience of Brasov in such scenarios, and the immense displays from Brasov of late, I think 17/20 is worth taking on the home win although I would leave it if it drops further as they’re just not a good enough side in general to be worth lower odds, even against inferior opponents like Targu Mures.
Verdict: Brasov to win at 17/20.
Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!
Accumulator fodder:
Sedan-Ardennes, Ferencvaros, Groningen, Cambuur Leeuwarden, SL Benfica, Trabzonspor.
Recommended bets:
Groningen, Ferencvaros, and Zwolle at 3/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Argentinian Primera Division:
All Boys vs Banfield (6) 2-1
Racing Club Avellaneda vs Gimnasia De La Plata (7) 1-0
Australian A-League:
Melbourne Victory vs Brisbane Roar (5) 1-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Lokeren vs Standard de Liege (5) over 2.5 goals
Chilean Primera Division:
Audax Italiano vs Universidad de Chile (6) over 2.5 goals
Croatian Prva Liga:
Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Rijeka (4) 1-1
Inter Zapresic vs Cibalia Vinkovci (5) 2-1, draw no bet
French Ligue 2:
Angers SCO vs Chateauroux (6)
Boulogne vs Grenoble Foot (6) under 2.5 goals
Dijon FCO vs Tours (5) over 2.5 goals
Istres vs Nantes (7)
Le Havre vs Metz (6) under 2.5 goals
Nimes vs Vannes OC (7)
Sedan-Ardennes vs Reims (8)
German Bundesliga:
St.Pauli vs Kaiserslautern (5) 1-2, draw no bet
German Bundesliga 2:
MSV Duisburg vs FSV Frankfurt (7)
Rot-Weiss Oberhausen vs Alemannia Aachen (6)
Osnabruck vs Paderborn (6)
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Siofok vs Gyori ETO FC (4) 1-2, draw no bet
Ferencvaros vs Kecskemeti TE (8) over 2.5 goals
Italian Serie A:
Lazio vs Internazionale (5) 2-1, draw no bet
Dutch Eredivisie:
Groningen vs Vitesse Arnhem (8) 2-0
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Den Bosch vs Zwolle (7) over 2.5 goals
Volendam vs Eindhoven (6) over 2.5 goals
Emmen vs Dordrecht ’90 (6) over 2.5 goals, draw no bet
Helmond Sport vs Veendam (5)
RBC Roosendaal vs RKC Waalwijk (6) over 2.5 goals
Fortuna Sittard vs Almere City (5) over 2.5 goals
Sparta Rotterdam vs AGOVV Appeldoorn (7) over 2.5 goals
Cambuur Leeuwarden vs MVV Maastricht (8)
Go Ahead Eagles vs Telstar (7)
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Tacuary vs Nacional Asuncion (6) 1-2
Olimpia Asuncion vs Sportivo Trinidense (7) 1-0
Peruvian Primera Division:
Total Chalaco vs Inti Gas (6) 2-1
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
SL Benfica vs Olhanense (8) 2-0
Romanian Liga:
Gaz Metan Medias vs Victoria Branesti (6) 1-0
Brasov vs Targu Mures (6) 1-0
CFR Cluj vs Universitatea Craiova (6) 2-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Deportivo Xerez vs Ponferradina (7)
Turkish Super Lig:
Trabzonspor vs Bucaspor (8) over 2.5 goals
Welsh Premier League:
Haverfordwest County vs Carmarthen Town (5) over 2.5 goals
Prestatyn Town vs Bala Town (7) 1-0
Enjoy your free betting tips