Manchester City vs Salzburg
FreeWell, it’s not often I take such an interest in the UEFA Europa League but there does strangely appear to be some value today in that competition. Nonetheless, do approach with caution as it’s a terrible competition to bet on with very unpredictable outcomes en mass!
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Europa League encounter at the City of Manchester Stadium between Manchester City and Salzburg. Hosts Manchester City have played reasonably well in this competition thus far whereas Austrian giants Salzburg haven’t due to their losses in summer so we should see a fairly straightforward result tonight.
Manchester City are a side that people have been verbally orgasming over for the majority of this season and I’ve still yet to work out why with their whole host of holding midfielders, two talented attacking players, and a number of people wanting to leave the club. However, the one thing that City consistently do well is defend and with so many defensive players in their defence and midfield, it’s not hard to see why that is. Their unadventurous 4-5-1 has led to them keeping five clean sheets in ten home games already this season so they’re fairly competent at the back. They’ve kept back-to-back clean sheets at home to Manchester United and Birmingham City respectively and should be able to record one tonight. City are taking this competition seriously as they’ve demonstrated already with some good displays. They’re a little inexperienced and their tactics can be a little backward but they should have enough to secure the win tonight with the likes of Tevez and Silva available to them, just as they did for the game in Austria against Salzburg a couple of months ago.
Visitors Salzburg have had big problems ever since Marc Janko departed (no pun intended) and as a result, they’re no longer a potent attacking force. Last season, Salzburg were immense in the UEFA Europa League as they had a game plan and it worked with big target man Janko in action. Without him, Salzburg look rather ineffctual and predictable. The introduction of Boghossian was a good idea and should bear fruit eventually but the transformation that players have to undergo when moving from South America to Europe is large and can often take at least a season to integrate. Aside from the towering Uruguayan, Salzburg are left with experienced striker Wallner as their source of goals, which works when he has a target man to play off but rarely without. Salzburg are bumbling along in the Bundesliga because they possess better players than the vast majority of their opponents but they’re still not what they were. If you quell Wallner and Svento, you’ll generally get the better of Salzburg and even a fairly bizarre City side should be able to control the game with the above in mind.
City are priced quite short to win this game, a little shorter than I’d have placed them. Nonetheless, their tag of favourites is well earned as they really should win this game and by doing so, they’ll most likely have secured a place in the latter stages of the competition. However, my call is for City to win without conceding because Salzburg don’t offer enough in attack so as long as City are decent at full-back and from set pieces then the tip of City to win without conceding should be good value today.
Verdict: Manchester City to win to nil at evens – why not bet on this game now at Bwin?
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Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Zenit St.Petersburg vs Anderlecht – home win at evens.
Approach this bet with caution because Zenit have no reason to win this game whatsoever, having already qualified for the latter stages. However…
Zenit are a really strong side to face, especially at Petrovsky. They’ve just won the Russian Premier League and their team has been celebrating in the city with their medals etc. and they now have their final home game of the current campaign so I think they’re going to turn up here. They faced Krylya Sovetov Samara at home in their last game and fielded virtually a full-strength side despite not needing to so I don’t see them resting players here. Indeed, what would they rest them for? They don’t have any other important games this year as they’ve already qualified for the next round so their trip to Greece to face AEK Athens is a fairly redundant one. Therefore, I see no reason for Spalletti to rest players. Indeed, I think they’d be more inclined to play their best players in their final home game of the season for the fans so I expect a good Zenit display tonight with the likes of Danny, Zyrianov, and Bystrov set to wreak havoc from midfield.
It aids my bet that Anderlecht are not at full-strength. In fact, they’re some distance from it. Anderlecht need to win this game, which is why the odds on the home win are as good as they are, I daresay. However, there are some players that Anderlecht need to perform – Lukaku, Juhasz, Boussoufa, Biglia, and Legear. Biglia and Boussoufa are definite absentees, which leaves gaping holes in midfield. Juhasz is still a doubt but Anderlecht can’t play here without him so I’m sure he’ll feature. They’re missing Deschacht in defence, which makes them even more vulnerable overall here. Anderlecht are not good travellers either, just like most Belgian sides. They’ve faced Hajduk Split away and lost and AEK Athens away and drew but scoring just once over the two games is not a good average. Neither of those two sides is particularly good defensively but it shows Anderlecht’s lack of options in attack drastically by their inability to take good results from games against sides which frankly they’re capable of winning. Now they’re facing one of the finest sides in the competition and suddenly they have a chance?! Maybe my mind works differently to everyone else’s or differently to the bookies’ minds but I don’t see the correlation.
Anderlecht do need the points so be careful here but for me, I cannot possibly overlook Zenit at evens for this game with virtually a full-strength side available to them at home to a side that they’re a lot better than, as they demonstrated by emphatically beating them in Belgium a couple of months ago. Let’s also not forget that this game was very nearly postponed for a day or two due to the freezing temperatures in Russia currently – this is not going to be a pleasant game for Anderlecht at all! For me, this should still be a home win, irrespective of motivation.
Verdict: Zenit St.Petersburg to win at evens.
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Hajduk Split vs AEK Athens – home win at 27/20.
This game is a must-win for both sides and Hajduk have responded to that well. They’ve already named their starting line-up, allegedly, which reads as follows: Oremus, Maloca, Jozinovic, Buljat, Ibricic, Ljubicic, Vuksic, Tomasov, Strinic, and Sharbini. Hajduk are going to attack here because they have to and because that’s what they do well here. Hajduk only miss goalkeeper Subasic for this game and long-term absentee captain Andric so they’re looking strong for this game. They also have a strong home advantage for this game, something that Hajduk are notorious for bringing to their home games. This isn’t like Dinamo Zagreb’s Maksimir where it’s empty if it’s raining! This is at Poljud in Split, a hostile venue for all sides. Zenit struggled here and somehow won 2-3 whereas Anderlecht crumbled and lost here 1-0. Hajduk have also hosted Romanian sides Unirea Urziceni and Dinamo Bucharest earlier this season and defeated both of them convincingly. Sides never enjoy visits here and with an attacking Hajduk side named and a raucous support behind them, I fancy the hosts a lot here.
Unfortunately, they’re facing an AEK Athens side that enter this game on the back of a derby victory against illustrious rivals Olympiakos Piraeus, which will give them great confidence. All that comforts me in countering that point is that AEK Athens, like most Greek sides, struggle an awful lot away from home. AEK have lost both Europa League games on the road this season, losing 4-2 at Zenit St.Petersburg and 3-0 at Anderlecht, highlighting their hideous defending and impotent attack onthe road. Conceding seven goal in two away games is not a good away record at all, as you would all agree, I’m sure. I’d like to say that they were unusual games but AEK’s away form domestically this season has been terrible too with five defeats in six games. AEK simply aren’t a good away side and although they can be competent from time to time, it’s hard to see them turning up in Split when the struggle enough to do so in their domestic away games.
Therefore, my call here is the home win as it’s priced a little too generously by my reckoning!
Verdict: Hajduk Split to win at 27/20.
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Sampdoria vs PSV Eindhoven – away win with draw no bet at evens.
Since beating Fiorentina 2-1 in mid-October, Sampdoria haven’t scored more than once in a home game. It’s no coincidence that that was Antonio Cassano’s last game for Sampdoria with his falling out with the chairman signalling the premature end of a potentially devastating strike duo partnership with Pazzini. The chairman has said Cassano won’t play for Sampdoria again and it’s not the first time it’s been said about Antonio “badboy” Cassano either. However, the reprcussions are that Sampdoria have been booted into the abyss of average Sere A sides as a result. They defend competently enough but in front of goal, they just don’t do anything. The only time in the last nine games that they’ve scored more than once in a game was at newly-promoted Lecce, which isn’t really acceptable for a side that should be challenging for a UEFA Champions League place this year. Indeed, since Cassano was ejected from the team, Sampdoria have scored just once in four home games – it’s just not good enough, especially when you consider that they’ve hosted Metalist Kharkiv and Chievo Verona along the way.
Therefore, I give the advantage to visiting PSV Eindhoven. PSV aren’t at their best this year but they’re scoring goals for fun with emerging talent Ola Toivonen in fine form with nine goals in fifteen games this season. Hungarian attacking midfielder Dzsudzsak is also in great form with eight goals in sixteen games so PSV do have attacking options here. Marcus Berg and Jeremain Lens (particularly the latter) have been contributing with goals this season, as has midfielder Afellay although I’m choosing to ignore him as he’s apparently set to leave the club in summer with big names such as Barcelona touted as possible destinations for the promising midfielder. Although their defence is a little shaky, Rutten has got them playing good attacking football and given the precarious state that Sampdoria are currently in, I think that PSV are the worst kind of side that they could hope to be facing tonight.
The odds aren’t massively off here but I still don’t agree with them here. I think PSV with DNB cover here is a bargain at evens because Sampdoria are looking less and less like a force each time I see them and PSV usually tend to score goals wherever they play!
Verdict: PSV Eindhoven to win with draw no bet at evens.
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Lech Poznan vs Juventus – over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
The talking point regarding this game has been the temperature with UEFA recommending to postpone this game if it falls below -15 degrees. It’s currently at -12 so we’ll see how that goes but one thing is for sure – Juventus will definitely not like this game at such a temperature! Juventus have to win this game, however, so they’re going to attack whether they can feel their feet or not and that should be interesting. They tried that tactic at the Delle Alpi and drew 3-3 with Lech following an inspirational display from pacey hitman Rudnevs. To try it against a very good Lech side (in Europe, at least!) away from home could result in a similar scoreline here. It’s well-known that Lech have problems with star defender Arboleda as he wants more money for his excellent services and as a result, their defence isn’t anywhere near as solid as normal. They’re also short on attackers with Chrapek injured and Tshibamba out after a car accident. All hopes are on Rudnevs and not for the first time this season either! Nonetheless, the support of Krivets, Stilic, and Peszko should be ample for a determind Lech side and if they avoid defeat in this game then they have a very good chance of qualifying for the latter stages of the competition. Juventus are missing Amauri, Aquilani, Quagliarella, Motta, Rinaudo, Buffon, Martinez, Motta, Legrottaglie, Grygera, and De Ceglie for this game. Many of these players are long-term but it’s one hell of a hefty a list and lends some weight as to why Juventus aren’t firing on all cylinders in recent times. They’re still taking a good side to Poznan but the goalscoring responsibility lies solely with Del Piero and Iaquinta, although pacey Krasic and Pepe will no doubt look to join in. Juventus have enough attacking potential to score against a Lech side not defending well but Lech’s pace in attack has caused problems in every game in this group and should do so tonight too, as Juventus’ defence is susceptible. Therefore, I’m avoiding the 1×2 market here in favour of over 2.5 goals, which is rather generously priced at 11/10!
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
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Rosenborg BK vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen – under 2.5 goals at evens.
A low-scoring home side hosting a defensively solid away side? Under 2.5 goals, please! Rosenborg need the win and Leverkusen need to avoid defeat so I can see a somewhat mind-numbing game developing here. Leverkusen are still missing Kiessling and although it’s comforting for the German giants that Helmes is gradually returning to fitness, they still look very lightweight in attack with only Swiss misfit Eren Derdiyok and Danish youngster Nicolai Jorgensen fronting the Leverkusen attack. Nonetheless, the remainder of the side likes composed and experienced and with no need to win this game, I don’t see Leverkusen unnecessarily attacking – it’s just not their style. Three out of Leverkusen’s four Europa League games have gone under 2.5 goals and this one should too, really. Rosenborg do need the win here and I’d take them more seriously in Trondheim if they were mid-season. However, the Eliteserien campaign ended in November – it’s been nearly a month since their last competitive game so I doubt their match sharpness is adequate enough to break a stiff Leverkusen resolve tonight. I wouldn’t touch the 1×2 market here but with the above in mind, under 2.5 goals at evens appeals to me.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals evens.
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Goias vs Independiente – over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Well, if this doesn’t exploit the blatant weakness behind the Copa Sudamericana qualification methods then I don’t know what will! A below-average Brazilian side and an average Argentinian side (with a big past) in the final of the competition! Who would have thought it? It’s the kind of final that the South American FA were after though – the sides from Argentina and Brazil are massively favoured for such tournaments so these two sides in the final is a welcome sight for them, although I’m sure they privately hoped for Palmeiras against Independiente instead!
Nonetheless, let’s deal with what we have here! Goias are now officially relegated from Serie A so my thoughts on this game is that they’ll now focus on the final because they’ve got nothing better to do. The weight of expectation and hope has been lifted from the players as they enter this game as underdogs with nothing to lose. They entered the away game with Palmeiras like that and amazingly won 2-1, which thus qualified for them for the final of the competition, so I can’t underestimate Goias here. Goias’ problem all season long hasn’t been goalscoring – it’s been defending. They can and do concede against just about anyone but their goalscoring tally is quite impressive, to be honest! They’ve gone over 2.5 goals in three out of their last five Copa Sudamericana games due to good attacking and inept defending and I expect more of the same tonight, albeit with a more carefree attitude.
Visitors Independiente have been taking this competition seriously since the start of it and I don’t expect that to change tonight. They rested a good number of players at home to Estudiantes De La Plata at weekend ahead of the first leg of this final so they’re well-prepared for this game. Five out of Independiente’s last six Copa Sudamericana games have gone over 2.5 goals and that’s especially evident away from home with a 2-2 draw in Colombia against Deportes Tolima and a 3-2 defeat in Ecuador against Liga de Quito to boast for their troubles. Independiente struggle most of all to break down resilient sides but on the counter-attack, Independiente cause a lot of problems, as the afore-mentioned sides found out rather well! Independiente will be more than able to exploit Goias’ defensive weaknesses but Goias will be able to score against Independiente rather easily too as they’re somewhat vulnerable defensively when playing away from Avellaneda, conceding in all three Copa Sudamericana away games this season, so over 2.5 goals is looking promising here.
I don’t need to remind anyone about the intense rivalry between Brazilian and Argentinian clubs so expect cards here and be wary if taking the 1×2 market. However, this game looks set to have goals in as Goias can’t defend but do score goals and Independiente won’t want Goias in Argentina without an away goal to their name. Therefore, over 2.5 goals is my call here.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
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As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
UEFA Europa League:
Zenit St.Petersburg vs Anderlecht (6) 1-0
Hajduk Split vs AEK Athens (6) 2-1
Young Boys Bern vs VfB Stuttgart (5) 2-2
OB Odense vs Getafe (6) over 2.5 goals
Metalist Kharkiv vs Debreceni VSC (7) 2-1
Sampdoria vs PSV Eindhoven (6) 1-2, draw no bet
Manchester City vs Salzburg (7) 2-0
Lech Poznan vs Juventus (5) over 2.5 goals, draw no bet
Atletico Madrid vs Aris Salonika (7) over 2.5 goals
Rosenborg BK vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen (6) under 2.5 goals
Sporting Clube de Lisboa vs LOSC Lille (6) 2-1
AA Gent vs Levski Sofia (6) 2-1
Copa Sudamericana;
Goias vs Independiente (5) over 2.5 goals
Argentinian Primera Division:
Olimpo vs Arsenal de Sarandi (5) 1-2
Australian A-League:
Sydney FC vs Wellington Phoenix (6) 1-0
Gold Coast United vs North Queensland Fury (4) under 2.5 goals
English League Cup:
Ipswich Town vs West Bromwich Albion (6) over 2.5 goals
Birmingham City vs Aston Villa (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
French Ligue 1:
Olympique de Marseille vs Stade Rennais (7) under 2.5 goals
Valenciennes vs Saint-Etienne (5) 1-1
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Zulia vs Caracas (6) 0-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!